2023 RECORD: 7-2-1
WEEK 2 RECAP
We’re two weeks into the NFL season and they’ve both been profitable. Following a 4-1 performance in Week 1, we went 3-1-1 in Week 2. Two great weeks and we’ll be looking to stay hot in Week 3.
All three of the Week 2 winners were sweat-free. As expected, David Montgomery handled Detroit’s goal-line carries and found the endzone in a high-scoring game. In a Week 2 matchup against a vicious Dallas defense, Garrett Wilson was still able to rip off a long touchdown to cash his over.
In Chicago vs. Tampa Bay, Khalil Herbert finished with just seven carries despite a healthy scratch from D’Onta Foreman. Chicago fell behind in the second half, abandoned the run, and Herbert did not approach 11.5 carries.
Davante Adams gives us a very disappointing push. Adams had five receptions in the first half. Adams had just one catch in the second half before leaving late in the 4th quarter due to injury. A push isn’t a problem but after five catches in the first half, I thought this would cash with ease.
Our single loss once again comes from the Cincinnati Bengals. The Cincinnati offense spent the first half looking completely lost once again. Joe Burrow and Tee Higgins were able to connect to get the offense going in the second half but it was too late by then and the Bengals lost outright.
Although it wasn’t an official play, Jaylen Waddle’s longest reception cashes with ease once again and moves to 2-0 on the year.
WEEK 3 BEST BETS
Most player props (Pick ‘Em) will be provided by our friends at Underdog Fantasy.
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PICK ‘EM: JORDAN ADDISON LONGEST RECEPTION OVER 21.5 YARDS (-120, DRAFTKINGS)
Vikings vs. Chargers is going to be a fantasy goldmine. With a game total set at 54, it’s looking like this will be a slug-fest between these offenses.
The Chargers’ secondary is not exactly the strength of this defense, to put it kindly. Through two games, Los Angeles has allowed 666 yards through the air, the most in the league. In these two games, SIX different players have a reception of 22+ yards. This secondary can’t even cover River Cracraft and is prone to giving up big plays.
Jordan Addison has a great chance to cash this over. In his first two games, his longest receptions have gone for 39 and 62 yards. The Vikings have already been looking to Addison to push the ball downfield. Addison has an ADOT of 16.6 yards and an air yards share of 26.2 percent.
Addison’s usage increased between Weeks 1 and 2. I expect this trend to continue in Week 3 against a struggling Chargers’ secondary. Expect Addison to get several downfield looks to cash this over.
PICK ‘EM: JOSHUA KELLEY OVER 0.5 RUSHING AND RECEIVING TOUCHDOWNS
Sticking with Los Angeles vs. Minnesota, we are looking to take advantage of what should be a high-scoring affair. In his first start of the season, Joshua Kelley struggled. However, this came against one of the league’s best rush defenses and interior defensive lines in the Tennessee Titans. However, Kelley gets the Vikings this week, one of the league’s worst rush defenses. The Vikings are giving 166 yards on the ground per game, and everyone remembers what D’Andre Swift did to them last Thursday.
In the absence of Austin Ekeler last week, Kelley played 73 percent of snaps and handled the goal line work. This is bellcow usage and this will continue with Ekeler out in Week 3. The logic behind this one is fairly simple. Los Angeles has a high-powered offense and will have several trips to the red zone this week against a lacking defense. Kelley should have the opportunity to punch one in during this shootout.
PICK ‘EM: JUJU SMITH-SCHUSTER LONGEST RECEPTION UNDER 14.5 YARDS (-140, DRAFTKINGS)
JuJu Smith-Schuster has had an interesting season so far. I’m not sure what will happen first, his knee “exploding” or him making an actual impact for the Patriots. That was a little out of pocket, but it’s alright, we’re going to take advantage of JuJu’s lack of impact.
Across two games this season, JuJu has run a route on 43.8 percent of dropbacks and has an ADOT of 4.2 yards. Not only is he hardly on the field, but his targets are primarily checkdowns. Smith-Schuster isn’t doing much with these check downs either, averaging just 2.56 yards after the catch. This is exactly the type of player to take the under on the longest reception.
This game is also expected to be impacted by weather:
A rainy game will do nothing but help us with this bet. The perfect storm is brewing for JuJu to go under on this line and I expect him to catch a few short to intermediate passes to cash the under.
GAME TOTAL: PITTSBURGH AND LAS VEGAS UNDER 43 (-110, FANDUEL)
A primetime matchup with two struggling offenses? Yeah, sign me up for the under. Las Vegas is coming off a blowout in Buffalo in which they could only score 10 points. Pittsburgh’s defense single-handedly won Week 2 against Cleveland. Pittsburgh somehow won that game without running a single play inside of Cleveland’s 30-yard line. This is really all you need to know about the Pittsburgh offense:
Just truly horrendous. The Raiders aren’t much better and are one of the league’s least efficient rushing offenses. Both of these teams rank in the bottom three of total offense, with both teams averaging right around 250 yards of offense per game.
This game will be controlled by strong defense and field position. I expect there to be plenty of punts and for fans to leave yet another primetime game disappointed by the lack of scoring.
PICK ‘EM: ZAY FLOWERS OVER 52.5 RECEIVING YARDS
Baltimore vs. Indianapolis is another game that could be impacted by weather but the matchup for Zay Flowers is too good to pass up. Flowers started his NFL career with performances of 78 and 62 yards. Now he gets to face one of the league’s worst secondaries in the Colts. The Colts rank 4th in receiving yards allowed per game and have been absolutely torched by lesser talents than Flowers.
Five WRs have already eclipsed the 53-yard mark against this secondary: Calvin Ridley, Zay Jones, Nico Collins, Robert Woods, and Tank Dell. Call me crazy but I think Flowers is more talented than several of these receivers and can easily take advantage of the Colts’ DBs.
Odell Beckham Jr. will also be out for this matchup, which is beneficial for Flowers’ volume. Flowers remains the second option behind Baltimore but I believe he will be able to beat these corners, get open, and get enough looks to go over 52.5 yards.
