With just a week or two remaining until 2023 fantasy football draft night is in the books, we have some decisions to make that will impact our lives until the end of the calendar year. We went over the tricky first and second-round running backs, now it’s time to dive into the late-first, late-second, and early-third-round wide receivers that could change the course of your season. Whether you’re deploying the Zero-RB, Hero RB, or Robust RB Strategy, these wideouts could be the difference between going home early or hoisting your league’s trophy.
Of the late-first and early-second-round wide receivers (CeeDee Lamb, Davante Adams, Garrett Wilson, Amon-Ra St. Brown)… who are you targeting and who are you fading?
THE WOLF
Targeting: Amon-Ra St. Brown
If I was shooting strictly for ceiling, Garrett Wilson & “Aaron Rodgers’ Next Davante Adams” would be the pick, especially given Rodgers has already drawn that comp himself.
Still, I’d be lying if I said the high floor-high ceiling combo of Amon-Ra St. Brown wasn’t the most appealing here. I love any of the few WRs in the “lay-up” target role, and ASB certainly qualifies. OC Ben Johnson uses ASB like his version of Cooper Kupp, resulting in the third-year WR finishing fifth in receptions, eight in targets, and seventh in PPR fantasy points. All of that feels like a floor.
What if he’s not tackled a whopping seven times inside the five-yard line? What if he expands his vertical game, like promised? Jameson Williams will only help if he can ever get healthy and his head on straight, creating even more space for ASB to roam. He’s an elite late-first, early-second-round target, and the best of this list in half PPR and especially in full PPR.
Fading: CeeDee Lamb
While I love the player & think he’ll be just fine, Lamb feels like the lowest floor/ceiling combo here. If he maintains his 156 targets (4th) & 107 Rec (4th), Lamb will smash. However, I expect both totals to dip, even if only slightly, because:
1) Brandin Cooks is still legit. Between his addition, and Michael Gallup being “healthy & springy” again, this offense should have more mouths to feed. CeeDee was often the only viable guy in 2022. I doubt he’s force-fed as much in 2023.
2) Run-heavier offense: Mike McCarthy has already said he wants to “run the damn ball,” which is the biggest reason he fired the brilliant Kellen Moore. He then hires Brian Schottenheimer; in Schotty’s last 10 years calling plays, four of his teams have ranked top-three in rush attempts and top-four in yards (including No. 1 rushing offense twice); only one year has he ranked above 17th in pass attempts.
Between a smaller overall Aerial Pie, and more mouths to feed, I find CeeDee to be the least appealing of the late-first and early-second-round receivers.
JACKSON
Targeting: Davante Adams
From an Expected Fantasy Points perspective, Adams is my choice here. Adams averaged 21.1 XFP per game last season, while the other three were all between 16 and 18 XFP per game. Adams does have a new QB in Jimmy Garoppolo, but I don’t expect a significant drop-off from Derek Carr.
St Brown’s numbers do rise to about 18.5 XFP and PPG if you remove his two injury-shorted games. He would be my second choice, but I still don’t see the situations changing enough to make up for the significant advantage that Adams had last season.
Fading: Garrett Wilson
I’m not necessarily fading Wilson, but I’ll put him in last by default because Lamb outscored him by 5.0 PPG last season. I understand that part of it was due to poor QB play, but Lamb also had more XFP. I view both players similarly this season, so I am using that as a tiebreaker.
ChaseMG
Targeting: Davante Adams
My heart wants to say Garrett Wilson just because I want to see him explode as the alpha-WR on the Jets, but Davante doesn’t look like he’s slowing down, and he doesn’t need a world-beater at quarterback to stay elite. He may not be college buddies with Jimmy G, but it’s too hard to bet against another year like the ones we’ve gotten used to with Adams, even in his age-31 season
Fading: CeeDee Lamb
With a coach that’s allergic to scoring points and a new OC to help facilitate that big play-hating agenda, CeeDee’s ceiling is conceptually capped in a way that the other three receivers are not.
JimboSlice
Targeting: Amon-Ra St. Brown
Not only am I banking on his elite target hog status, but I am hopeful of a red zone touchdown spike with lesser surrounding talent than the other wideouts in this spot. CeeDee Lamb is a close second for me behind St. Brown.
Fading: Garrett Wilson
I don’t dislike Wilson, but I just love the other guys more. I’m worried there’s too much hype around the Jets offense, especially with a potential Rodgers’ decline and the mess that is their offensive line. Jimmy G scares me off Adams slightly, but he’s just way too talented.
The Duck
Targeting: CeeDee Lamb.
He’s still going to be the number one target by a wide margin on what SHOULD still be a high-octane offense. The Dallas Cowboys’ offseason directly contradicts the narrative of a run-heavy attack. Lamb has finished as a high-end WR1 already and is the safest bet to repeat.
Fading: Davante Adams
Father time is undefeated. As good as Adams is, Jimmy G is just as terrible. Reports are already rampant about Jimmy G throwing picks everywhere and not being able to hit the deep pass. I don’t like to bet on TD-dependent players in fantasy and Adams is starting to smell like a WR that has to find paydirt to pay off. No, thank you.
Kendall
Targeting: Amon-Ra St. Brown
I think he has the highest floor of this group and his targets are guaranteed. If the positive touchdown regression comes this season, he could easily compete for a top-three WR in 2023.
Fading: CeeDee Lamb
I think McCarthy and the Cowboys are due for a philosophy change in 2023. They moved on from Kellen Moore, who is one of the brightest young OCs in the NFL. They arguably have the best defense in the NFL, and I think after the 2022 playoffs, McCarthy doesn’t want to win games by leaning on Dak Prescott. Plus, Gallup is on year two after his ACL tear and they added a consistent veteran in Brandin Cooks, who is a massive upgrade from James Washington and Noah Brown last season.
Owen
Targeting: Amon-Ra St. Brown
I loved Amon-Ra St. Brown for fantasy all of his career, and that doesn’t stop now. Even with other pieces added to this team, he is a reception hog and seems like he is always wide open. He is likely the most guaranteed of the bunch to be in a great offense with a QB who makes smart decisions and allows his WRs to make plays in open space. I see him as a consensus top-10 WR in the NFL after this year.
Fading: Garrett Wilson
Garrett Wilson is going a little too high for my liking. This Jets team reminds me too much of the Broncos from last season: new veteran QB, great defense, hyped young receivers, a RB coming off injury that’s expected to carry the load, and… Nathaniel Hackett. I don’t think it will be quite a huge flop, but I don’t see Garrett Wilson finishing top-10 among WRs in this offense. People are too focused on the upside of this team when in reality, a team can only go as far as its weaknesses, and the offensive line needs to give their aging QB more time than Zach Wilson had last year if there is hope for this offense to be powerful and benefit Garrett Wilson’s stock.
Of the late-second and early-third-round wide receivers (Jaylen Waddle, Devonta Smith, Chris Olave, Tee Higgins, Calvin Ridley, DK Metcalf)… who are you targeting and who are you fading?
The Wolf
Targeting: Jaylen Waddle
I think this is a mostly “you can’t go wrong… but you can be more right” type of situation, as you can make strong cases for all of these young talents in exciting offenses.
I lean most to Waddle, albeit he might be the riskiest. For one, he already outscored every WR on this list (WR12), despite also seeing the fewest targets on the list (WR24 in tgts, behind Zay F’in Jones). Waddle was 2nd in FPs over Expectation (18.7 YPR!), so truly, no one did more with their work. Indeed, with a vacuum like Tyreek next to him, Waddle’s volume ceiling will be capped. But that number could, and should, rise into the 130s at minimum.
Also consider: in 13 games with Tua, Waddle averaged over 16.9 FPs (compared to barely over 10 without him). 16.9 FPPG would’ve made him the WR9 on the season, ahead of even ASB. Granted, Tua maintaining health is a big risk here, but Mike White at backup has me feeling okay. But, in the off-chance, that Tyreek gets hurt, or Waddle just takes his game to another level, the ceiling is astronomical.
Fading: DK Metcalf
Indeed, DK is a great fantasy locker room presence and the perfect person to have exit your fantasy bus first every week to strike fear into the opponent. Among these names, though, DK projects for the lowest volume now that JSN has arrived on a run-heavy team. He has declined for three straight years in efficiency and FPPG; despite seeing more volume than ever before in 2022 (141 tgts), DK finished as just the WR24. He absolutely can tear open games- – look no further than the playoffs — but everyone on this list has clearer paths to volume and lesser-known ceilings.
Jackson
Targeting: Chris Olave
He finished second in XFP per game among the receivers on this list, trailing only Metcalf by 0.7 XFP per game. However, the combination of a potential second-year leap from Olave combined with Metcalf potentially losing opportunities to rookie Jaxon Smith-Njigba should be more than enough to make up the difference.
I view Olave as interchangeable with Garrett Wilson both this year and beyond. Calvin Ridley did average 19.0 XFP per game in his last full season, which makes him an intriguing upside pick.
Fading: DK Metcalf
Despite leading the group in XFP last year, I would actually have Metcalf last on this list. As mentioned previously, JSN could take away some of his opportunities, but I also believe he has the least upside among this group. Waddle, Smith, and Higgins all have the opportunity to drastically rise in value if their star teammate gets injured, and I prefer Olave and Ridley’s upside for the reasons listed above.
ChaseMG
Targeting: DeVonta Smith
In weeks 13 through 18 last year, DeVonta went on a tear as the WR2 in half-PPR, only behind teammate AJ Brown. He out-produced Brown in six games last season, out-targeted him in eight, and had the edge in snap share. Even though Tee Higgins showed capable of out-producing Ja’Marr Chase last season, I expect DeVonta and Ja’Marr to be even better entering year 3. So though it’s close, out of Waddle, DeVonta, and Higgins, I think DeVonta has the best shot to out-produce their respective team’s WR1.
Fading: DK Metcalf
After an impressive second season, DK’s game has seemed to just be missing something. It shows in a catch rate that remains around a middling 60%, resulting in 7.5 and 7.4 yards-per-target the past two seasons, more than a yard less than any of the other late 2nd/early 3rd round receivers here. Yes, Ridley didn’t play last year, but I’m excited about his prospects on a rising Jaguars offense. In Seattle, Jaxon Smith-Njigba will be on the rise if Tyler Lockett begins to decline, and DK may not need to be relied upon as a WR1. And for me he garners the least confidence as their team’s WR2 out of these options.
JimboSlice
Targeting: Chris Olave
I think he’s in line for a huge season. He got a QB upgrade in Carr and Michael Thomas has been unable to stay on the field, so Olave could be peppered with targets.
Fading: Jaylen Waddle
I am really nitpicking here, but Jaylen Waddle ranks last for me here. Everyone else is either their team’s WR1 or damn near equal to their counterpart. Waddle seems to be firmly behind Tyreek Hill and has the least stable QB of the bunch in Tua Tagovailoa.
The Duck
Targeting: Chris Olave
This question is mean. I think there is a greater than 25% chance Waddle overtakes Tyreek Hill as the WR1 on the team. But I have to choose Chris Olave. His opportunity last year makes me salivate just thinking about it. Now, he has the same offensive system, one of the best deep passers in the league, and is the WR1 on this team (not you, Michael Thomas’ shadow). Olave has a path to finishing as the WR1 overall without injury… Waddle doesn’t.
Fading: DeVonta Smith
The guy is an absolute menace as an NFL wide receiver. But this offense isn’t likely going to turn into a yeet the ball across the field pass funnel offense and we can’t count on Dallas Goedert to miss significant time again. AJ Brown is still the alpha on the team, even if Smith had more catches last season. Brown is the first read and Smith wasn’t the second read last season. Sorry, that’s just a risk I am not willing to take at that critical of a juncture.
Kendall
Targeting: Jaylen Waddle
Jaylen Waddle is my favorite in this group. Nothing has changed this offseason to lead me to believe 2023 won’t be more of the same that we saw each of the last two seasons.
Fading: Calvin Ridley
I think his ADP has gotten way too high. There are too many mouths to feed in Jacksonville including, maybe, the most disrespected receiver in fantasy right now in Christian Kirk. Not to mention Ridley hasn’t played in a few years. I think the gap between Kirk and Ridley is too great right now. There’s just too much risk for me.
Owen
Targeting: Tee Higgins
It’s close between DeVonta Smith and Tee Higgins, but I’ll give the nod to Tee. He plays in an explosive offense that likes to throw in comparison to a run-heavy Eagles team. Tee Higgins has been targeted over 100 times for 1000 yards in the last two years and seems like one of the most bust-proof players. If anything were to happen to Ja’Marr Chase, he would become a top-5 WR immediately.
Fading: DJ Metcalf
Metcalf simply does not excite me. From a Best Ball standpoint, his ability to explode in any given week is valuable, but in a redraft league, his ups and downs are risky to want to consistently start. I feel like you could start all these other guys week-in and week-out without question, but with Lockett and JSN on the team, his share is going to be smaller. Further, we learned our lesson not to write off Geno Smith, yet I will write him off this year. He had a great season, but I don’t see him being the same player he was last year as great of a story it was. I do not think he will throw enough yards and touchdowns to keep three WRs fantasy-relevant.
