With just a week or two remaining until 2023 fantasy football draft night is a thing of the past, Christian McCaffrey and Austin Ekeler lead running back ADP — and deservedly so. But, even with drafters implementing the Zero RB strategy and receiver-heavy first rounds becoming more prevalent, there are still some talented workhorses who could win you your league in the late-first or early-second rounds.
Whether it’s the likes of Nick Chubb, Saquon Barkley, Tony Pollard, or rookie stud Bijan Robinson, the guys over at Roto Street Journal are here to help you make that critical RB1 or RB2 decision.
Assuming Christian McCaffrey and Austin Ekeler are the first two running backs selected, who is your RB3 and why?
The Wolf
Tony Pollard
I keep flip-flopping between Nick Chubb and Tony Pollard, but with Zeke Elliott officially in New England, I’ve gone with Tony P.
Here’s his game logs without Zeke:
-18 touches (6 rec), 132 YFS, 2 TDs
-15 touches (1 rec), 147 YFS, 3 TDs
-25 touches (3 rec), 128 YFS, 1 TD
Good for an average of 28.9 FPPG & a full-season pace of 329 touches (57 rec), 2306 YFS & 34 TDs.
I know he won’t be THIS efficient in a full-time role, but Pollard has never lost efficiency with volume in his career. His career arc reminds me of Jamaal Charles (albeit Pollard’s less-talented as a receiver), who everyone doubted would remain as explosive once he got the work. Any long-timer knows how JaCha’s career panned out.
Last, the offense as a whole should suffer with Kellen Moore OUT and Brian Schottenheimer (lol) IN… but the one thing Schotty does well is RUN and RUN OFTEN. In his last 10 years calling plays, four of Schotty’s teams ranked Top-3 in rush attempts & Top-4 in rush yards (including #1 twice). Moreover, he’s ranked 17th or lower in pass attempts in every season but one. The man loves to pound the rock.
Pollard is an elite talent, primed to see the most volume (especially goalline) of his career. I think he continues ascending and is a Top-5 pick in all 2024 Drafts.
MOH
Tony Pollard
Tony Pollard is my RB3. Pollard finished as the RB8 last year with Zeke in the picture and handled just 48 percent of RB opportunities. He is now in without Zeke, the situation we all wanted, but is being drafted as the RB8. Pollard proved what he could do without Zeke, scoring 33.7 and 21.8 fantasy points in two games as the lead back.
Pollard has shown that he has the talent and explosivity to be an elite RB. As a featured back, the sky is the limit.
JimboSlice
Saquon Barkley
I want a running back that I know will be involved in the passing game, and Barkley is still the best offensive player on the Giants’ roster. The offense should take a step forward this year, meaning more red zone appearances and touches for Saquon.
ChaseMG
Bijan Robinson
To me, his ceiling is Saquon Barkley’s rookie year. He may not see 121 targets, but he can surpass 81.7 rushing yards per game in Arthur Smith’s offensive system. If Tyler Allgeier can have a 1,000-yard rookie season, Bijan can have 1,500 yards and he brings way more in the passing game than Allgeier.
Jackson
Bijan Robinson
The former Longhorn has the best combination of talent, projected workload, and upside outside of the top two. Other elite RB prospects have put up difference-making seasons in the past as rookies, and Bijan is an elite prospect walking into a run-first offense. He is also excellent in the passing game and has as little injury risk as you can get at the position.
I would put Bijan and Saquon in the same tier, but Saquon has more risk to me due to injury history and contract concerns.
Tunes
Saquon Barkley
I’m stuck between Saquon Barkley and Bijan Robinson. It’s hard for me to trust a rookie after CEH and I’ve seen it from Barkley before, so I’m leaning toward Barkley but I wouldn’t be opposed to Robinson.
DLo
Saquon Barkley
The offense runs through him, and he has arguably just as high of a ceiling as the two backs taken before him, due to his elite pass-catching. I also think Daniel Jones takes another small step this season, giving more scoring opportunities. Now that he’s paid, he should be good to go.
Of the late-first and early-second RBs (Nick Chubb, Tony Pollard, Saquon Barkley, Bijan Robinson), who are you FADING and why?
The Wolf
Bijan Robinson
Most people’s consensus RB3 (or even RB2!), I have Bijan below all the other similarly-ranked backs. This is no slight at the player — I recognize the “generational prospect” that he is, and have little doubt Bijan will find success as soon as the first whistle blows.
Moreover, Atlanta has a Top-5 overall line (Top-3 specifically in run-blocking), and they led the NFL in rushing attempts last year (559). So where’s the beef?
1. I just love the other players and their track records a bit more.
2. Trusting Arthur Smith is often a fool’s game. Could he make Bijan his next Derrick Henry? Absolutely. Could he force an obnoxious RBBC with Tyler Allgeier and Cordarrelle Patterson siphoning work? Absolutely as well — if not likely, given Smith’s misusage of Kyle Pitts and other talents.
When picking out the hairs among these otherwise elite RB picks, this lower-floor (at no fault of Bijan’s) that comes with his gross team and unpredictable coach, has me lower than the masses.
MOH
Saquon Barkley
Saquon Barkley is someone I won’t have on many rosters. Barkley had a phenomenal performance last season but much of his productivity came through the air.
After Week 11, Barkley struggled on the ground. During this time, Barkley ranked 55th in yards per attempt, 70th in yards after contact per attempt, 20th in rushing attempts per game, and rushed for zero TDs. His fantasy success was carried by receiving work. Barkley will continue to have a role in the passing attack. However, a revamped group of pass catchers will diminish Barkely’s role. His lack of effectiveness on the ground and reduced pass-catching role is enough for him to be a fade at the end of Round 1.
JimboSlice
Bijan Robinson
There’s plenty of hype and I totally understand why, but I’ve been burned before drafting a rookie RB this high (cough cough…CEH).
Sure, Atlanta loves to run the ball, but it’s a low-scoring offense that plays at a slower pace. Plus, I don’t think the Falcons will just glue Tyler Allgeier and Cordarrelle Patterson to the bench. Normally, this would have been Nick Chubb but I have faith he’ll see an uptick in receiving work now that Hunt is gone.
ChaseMG
Tony Pollard
If you can even call it a fade, considering I have him ranked 15th overall right now, but he’s the lowest of the four options. The biggest reason is, we just haven’t seen him in this role yet (I know we haven’t seen Bijan in it either, but you know… it’s Bijan).
That said, it’s not a reason that warrants arguing passionately against him being higher than any of the other three, each one has a realistic path to being the best of the four.
Jackson
Nick Chubb
I have never been a fan of Nick Chubb in leagues with any sort of PPR, and this year is no different. He has never caught enough passes to be a true difference-maker in these formats. His best-ever PPR finish was the RB7 in PPG last year, which sounds pretty good until you realize that he still wasn’t even close to the top-scoring RBs. The gap between Chubb and the RB1 (Ekeler) was 5.3 PPG, which was bigger than the gap between Chubb and RB27 Cordarrelle Patterson.
Chubb’s poor 58.5 PFF receiving grade last year was right in line with his career numbers, and now he plays with a mobile QB in DeShaun Watson who rarely throws to the running back. Despite Hunt leaving, I still don’t have faith in Chubb to catch enough passes to have a real shot at finishing at the very top of the position.
Tunes
Tony Pollard
I’m fading Tony Pollard. I know he’s really chalky but I just find it hard to trust the Cowboys to rely on the run game consistently and late-first or early-second is a bit too high for me. If he lasts until the middle or end of the second, then I’d be all in.
DLo
Bijan Robinson
I don’t doubt the talent at all, but we haven’t seen him take a single NFL snap yet. This early in the draft, I like to limit risk. Chubb and Pollard are safer bets given their track record.
