It’s been a grueling summer of nothing but baseball, mock drafts, and Underdog Best Ball. However, the NFL season is here to save us, with kickoff approaching quickly. What comes along with the start of a new NFL season? The best day in the fantasy football season is draft day.
It’s always smart to go into your draft with a general plan. This plan may not always be perfectly executed, but going into drafts prepared will be helpful. Part of this preparation should identify your “guys” or players you are very excited about. The players discussed today should be circled on your draft boards and could be one of your “guys.”
QUARTERBACKS
Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers (ADP: 41, QB6)
Following a disappointing fantasy performance last season, Justin Herbert looks to regain his elite status in 2023. Herbert put up career lows in touchdowns, touchdown rate, and yards per attempt, leading to a QB11 finish. If Herbert can complete a higher number of deep passes and throw for more TDs, he can easily be an elite fantasy option.
Several factors in Los Angeles can lead to Herbert putting up astronomical numbers this year. First, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams returned after missing meaningful time in 2023. The Chargers also added Quentin Johnston in the first round of the draft this season, just another weapon at Herbert’s disposal.
Outside of a deep WR room, Los Angeles also added a weapon to the coaching staff. Former Dallas Cowboys offensive coordinator Kellen Moore has made his way to LA to run the offense. Kellen Moore crafted an offense in Dallas that finished top-five in scoring in back-to-back seasons. Moore is also known to air the ball out, and will likely continue with this and take advantage of Herbert’s arm talent.
If Moore can transform the Chargers’ offensive approach and Herbert can execute his game plan, the Los Angeles offense will explode in 2023. With an elite offense, Herbert will compete to be the overall QB1.
Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns (ADP: 82, QB9)
Deshaun Watson has a discounted price due to struggles last season. However, Watson’s lack of production shouldn’t come as a shock. Before returning in Week 13, Watson had not played in an NFL game for over a year and a half. On top of shaking off the rust, Watson had to deal with poor weather in two of six starts. There was a perfect storm of factors for Watson to struggle in 2023.
Before 2022, Watson was consistently an elite fantasy throughout his career. In fact, he was in the top five in fantasy points per game in each season as a starter. In his last full season (2020), Watson was nothing short of phenomenal. On top of leading the league in passing yards, Watson was among the elite QBs in yards per attempt, air yards per attempt, passer rating, and several rushing metrics.
Cleveland has also shown that they would like to develop their passing game. On top of adding Watson, Cleveland has added Elijah Moore, extended David Njoku, and not replaced Kareem Hunt. With a history of elite fantasy performances, a deep arsenal of weapons, and legitimate rushing upside, Watson is the last QB taken in drafts who could finish as the QB1.
RUNNING BACKS
Tony Pollard, Dallas Cowboys (ADP: 17, RB8)
With Ezekiel Elliott a part of the Cowboys in 2022, Tony Pollard finished as the RB8. Pollard is now in the situation everyone hoped for, with Elliott no longer with the team. However, Pollard is still being drafted as the RB8, despite the workhorse volume he will likely see.
Despite ranking 34th in opportunity share, Pollard still finished as the RB8. He could do this on the back of elite efficiency and explosivity. Pollard was among the league’s best in yards per touch, explosive run rate, and yards after contact per attempt. All the metrics point to Pollard being one of the league’s most talented backs.
In the two games where Pollard was the lead back last season, he scored 33.7 and 21.8 fantasy points. These numbers won’t be sustained across a full season. But, what Pollard can do as a featured back can be truly game-changing in fantasy. As the eighth running back coming off the board, Pollard provides tremendous value and should be circled on all draft sheets.
David Montgomery, Detroit Lions (ADP: 83, RB31)
David Montgomery is positioned to be a massive value for those who draft him. Following a move to Detroit, Montgomery has dropped down draft boards into the 7th round. This is primarily due to the presence of rookie RB Jahmyr Gibbs in the Lions’ backfield. The Alabama product will take on the vast majority of receiving work and get touches on the ground.
When it comes to Montgomery, he has not needed to be heavily involved in the passing game to find fantasy success. Montgomery has finished as the RB24 or better while only cracking 50 receptions once. While Gibbs will handle catching passes, Montgomery will handle other roles in Detroit.
Gibbs never handled more than 35% of the team’s carries in any of his collegiate seasons. This means Montgomery is in line to handle a meaningful portion of carries in Detroit. He is also the favorite to handle goal line carries, which carried Jamaal Williams to fantasy success last season. Montgomery will not be able to reproduce what Williams did in 2022 but the role he is taking on is still very valuable. The ceiling for Montgomery is capped by Gibbs’ role in the receiving game but he will get enough work elsewhere to justify his RB3 price.
Montgomery has a clear role in this offense. He will eat up yards on the ground and punch in short touchdowns. Montgomery has a track record of reliable fantasy performances, and Detroit has supported multiple RBs. Montgomery’s RB3 price looks like an absolute steal and should be a draft target, especially for those waiting to draft RBs.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Chris Olave, New Orleans Saints (ADP: 28, WR14)
When it comes to wide receivers, the concept of a “Year 2 Breakout” is often discussed. However, it seems receivers are drafted NFL-ready faster than ever. This was the case with Chris Olave, who finished as the WR25 and showed flashes of a budding star.
Olave certainly has room for improvement, and he is a prime candidate to explode in his sophomore season. First, Olave has solidified himself as the alpha receiver in this offense, racking up 112 targets on a 24.3 percent target share in his first year. Olave also ranked 5th in unrealized air yards. Connecting on some deeper targets and converting more targets to receptions could turn Olave into a game changer.
Olave was also effective when targeted, averaging 2.49 yards per route run. This is pretty meaningful for a rookie WR…
Olave can easily take a step forward in 2023. First, there is a quarterback upgrade in Derek Carr. Carr also has a history of creating elite fantasy weapons. Davante Adams, Darren Waller, Amari Cooper, and Hunter Renfrow have all had top-tier fantasy performances under Carr. Improvement on his four TDs from his rookie season will also lead to a massive step forward.
Diontae Johnson, Pittsburgh Steelers (ADP: 78, WR33)
The argument for Diontae Johnson is fairly simple: volume and touchdown regression. Johnson is an incredibly talented receiver and is regarded as one of the league’s best route runners. His talent will pay off and he will smash his ADP.
The first reason that Johnson will find success is due to the volume he will see. Johnson has consistently drawn at least 140 targets in his three seasons as a consistent starter. The 140 target mark is significant. 75 percent of receivers who hit this mark score 16 fantasy points per game or more. This would have been the WR12 last year. On top of this, 96 percent of WRs who hit 140 targets finish as a WR2 or better. Based on volume alone, he should succeed.
Johnson didn’t find the endzone a single time last season. He set the record for the most receptions in a season without a TD. In his first three seasons in Pittsburgh, Johnson averaged 6.67 TDs per season. Don’t expect him to hit double-digit TDs, but the numbers will be better than last year.
TIGHT ENDS
Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons (ADP: 59, TE6)
Following consecutive seasons of disappointment, Kyle Pitts‘ price has finally reached a point where it makes sense to invest in him. Everyone is aware of the talent of Pitts. However, injuries and poor offensive environments have led to struggles in fantasy. However, his price has dropped to the five-six turn, and betting on his talent seems like a good call here.
Aside from talent that shows on film, Pitts commands a significant role within this offense. His target rate and target share were among the highest for tight ends. In nine healthy games, Pitts averaged six targets per game and was targeted in the red zone six times.
Outside of injury, Pitts was held up by poor quarterback play last season. Pitts ranked dead last in catchable target rate, with just 65 percent of his targets being deemed catchable. This led to just a 49% catch rate and 541 unrealized air yards, the most among TEs despite missing seven games.
Quarterback play may still be an issue, with Desmond Ridder leading the offense. Regardless, Pitts was the fourth overall pick for a reason. Talent is always a good bet in fantasy football, and with a reduced price, now is the perfect time to invest in Pitts.
David Njoku, Cleveland Browns (ADP: 82, TE9)
David Njoku had the best season of his career in 2022 and was a viable fantasy option throughout the year. Njoku recently signed an extension to stay in Cleveland and will benefit from what will likely be an improved offense under Deshaun Watson.
As mentioned, all signs point to Cleveland being more pass-heavy in the coming years, and they have a QB who has proven capable of running a quality offense. An improved and more pass-heavy offense does nothing but help Njoku. After finishing 2022 with 80 targets, it would be no surprise if he hits 90 targets this season.
Even with average to below-average QB play last season, Njoku can still produce in fantasy. Njoku finished as the TE11 despite missing three games. He put up career highs in targets, receptions, yards, and touchdowns (tied).
What is encouraging about Njoku is his usage as a red zone threat. 25 percent of his targets came in the red zone last season. These high-value opportunities are fantasy gold, especially at the TE position. If Njoku can finish the year with 6-8 touchdowns, Njoku will prove to be a great mid-round TE.
