For both Steelers fans and owners of Diontae Johnson in fantasy, 2022 was a letdown. After being drafted as the WR17 last season, Johnson finished the year as the WR28. Shockingly, Johnson played all 17 games last year but still had this disappointing finish.
There are two primary reasons for Johnson’s WR3 finish last season: subpar play from quarterback Kenny Pickett and finishing the year with zero receiving touchdowns. Yes, zero trips to the end zone on 147 targets. It is well established that touchdowns can be flukey between seasons. However, nobody has ever had quite the season that Johnson did last year. Johnson set the record for most receptions in a season (86) without recording a touchdown.
When it comes to Pickett, just a few stats can illustrate that his play was not ideal last season: he finished 28th in completion percentage (min. 100 attempts), 20th in QBR, and 32nd in yards per attempt.
Despite having a poor season last year, I believe Diontae Johnson is in a great spot to bounce back in 2023.
HIGH-LEVERAGE LOOKS
When it comes to fantasy football, deep targets and red zone targets are the most valuable looks a wide receiver can get. These targets are high-leverage looks as they can result in massive amounts of fantasy points.
Over the course of last season, Johnson amassed 22 deep targets (20+ yards downfield) and 18 red zone targets. These ranked 19th and 10th for these metrics, respectively.
As previously mentioned, these targets can turn into high returns for fantasy production. If just four of these red zone targets turned into touchdowns, Johnson would have jumped to WR22 on the year, solidifying him as a WR2. Considering Johnson averaged 6.67 touchdowns per season in his first three NFL seasons, I expect Johnson to be a prime candidate for positive touchdown regression next year.
IMPROVED QUARTERBACK PLAY
Although Kenny Pickett did not perform particularly well last season, expectations were not high. Last season was Pickett’s rookie year and he only started 12 games. Historically, rookie QBs have not been able to support solid fantasy production for pass catchers. This was certainly seen in the case of Pickett and Johnson, as Johnson scored nearly 100 fewer fantasy points (PPR) between 2021 and 2022.
On the bright side, Pickett now has an NFL season under his belt. I expect him to be more comfortable within the offense, to the benefit of Johnson. Additionally, Pickett has now had the time to develop a stronger connection with his WR1. If Pickett is able to make quick reads and deliver accurate passes to his top target, Johnson will certainly improve from his 2022 fantasy output.
CONSISTENT VOLUME
Outside of his rookie season, Johnson has been a consistent target hog. In each of the last three years, Johnson has garnered at least 140 targets. In 2022, Johnson finished with 147 targets (6th) on a 27 percent target share (13th). Our Fantasy Football Stock Formula highlights the importance of volume and opportunity. If the ball isn’t in your hands, you can’t produce fantasy points. Thankfully for Johnson, he has some of the greatest levels of opportunity of any pass catcher in the NFL.
As Pickett enters his sophomore season, I expect the Steelers coaching staff to allow him to throw more. This means nothing but more targets for Johnson. If he stays healthy, I expect him to eclipse 150 targets. What is significant about the 150 target mark? In the past three seasons, every WR who hit this mark (except for DJ Moore in 2021) finished the year as a WR1.
THE FINAL TAKE
Everything surrounding Diontae Johnson screams a bounce-back season is coming. Furthermore, Johnson has proven that he is capable of producing at a WR1 level. While it will take a lot of things breaking right for Johnson to perform as a WR1 this year, I think he will certainly outperform his current ADP.
Johnson is currently being drafted as the WR33 and is ranked WR40 by The Wolf. I think he is currently being severely undervalued. Some may say that I’m living in the past, but I would disagree. Diontae Johnson plays a crucial role in the Pittsburgh offense and this role won’t be changing next season. Johnson will be peppered with targets, will certainly see some positive touchdown regression, and will be of tremendous value in upcoming drafts.
