In a little more than one month, players return to their respective NFL training camps. From free agency to trades to the draft, NFL teams are again shaken up with some new favorites as division winners as the new league year rolls around.
Chatter is slowly ramping up on which teams are the favorites to win divisions, playoff games, regular and postseason accolades — even though it’s the end of June.
On paper, we’re about 90 percent sure where impactful fantasy players will be playing in the fall. However, training camp and preseason seem to always claim victims, making what we see on paper now a little different in early September.
Last season, Cowboys star LT Tyron Smith played only four games after tearing his hamstring during training camp. Back in 2021, we lost the likes of J.K. Dobbins, Cam Akers, Michael Thomas, and Gus Edwards before the season even kicked off. In 2020, the Chargers’ team doctors punctured Tyrod Taylor’s lung, paving the way for Justin Herbert to burst on the scene before the team planned it.
But, if you had to place a bet on a team to win its respective division today with all the information you do know, it’s not too hard to figure out. Or, is it?
Check out: NFC Division Winner Future Bets
For the sake of this article, I’ll be using Bovada and its odds, since the site is available in all 50 states.
AFC NORTH
Beginning in the AFC North, Bovada lists the Cincinnati Bengals as the favorites at +140, followed by the Baltimore Ravens (+240), Cleveland Browns (+425), and Pittsburgh Steelers (+450).
Cincinnati makes sense here. It lost in the Conference Championship after making the Super Bowl one year prior. The Bengals have their franchise guy in quarterback Joe Burrow, who is proving his connection with receiver Ja’Marr Chase was indeed more important than an immediate fix at the offensive line. But, that’s getting better, too, most notably with the addition of Orlando Brown Jr. The offensive concern here is at running back, but the fact that Joe Mixon is still a) rostered and b) not jailed, gives Cincinnati another edge. Mixon is still dealing with off-field issues and may miss time, but the Bengals don’t seem concerned. Backup Samaje Perine is now a Denver Bronco and the team drafted a rookie and has an inexperienced rusher as its current other options. The Bengals also drafted defensive players across the first three rounds of the 2023 NFL Draft, hoping to strengthen their position against the leave in defensive categories.
If I had to pick my wild card in the division to throw some cash on it would be Pittsburgh.
I expect George Pickens to grow on his spots of brilliance from last season, and paired with Diontae Johnson and veteran Allen Robinson, I’d say is an above-average receiving corps for second-year quarterback Kenny Pickett. Pickett will also have Pat Friermuth and new-monster in the tight end roles, which can only help him. Pickett struggled in yards per attempt and touchdown rate (30th) last season, but that should fade in year two. Moreover, the additions of Joey Porter Jr. and Keeanu Benton should help the Steelers’ offense see more field time.
PICKS:
Cincinnati Bengals (+140): $5 down pays $12; $10 pays $24; $50 pays $120 and $100 pays $240
Pittsburgh Steelers (+450): $5 down pays $27.50; $10 pays $55; $50 pays $275 and $100 pays $550
AFC EAST
The AFC East is also closely contested, with Bovada listing the Buffalo Bills as the favorites at +115. The New York Jets (+280), Miami Dolphins (+300), and New England Patriots (+800) follow respectively.
Buffalo is the most experienced and complete team in the division. It has won the division for the previous three seasons and won at least one playoff game in the same time span.
The only shaky part of the Bills’ offense is its use of running backs, but they improved that aspect by shipping off Devin Singletary who is overall mediocre at best. According to CBSSports’ depth chart, James Cook is currently slated as the No. 1 back, but we should see a committee of him, ex-New England Patriot Damien Harris, and Latavius Murray, most known for his time with the New Orleans Saints. On paper, this rushing attack has already improved. If they can jive with Stefon Diggs, Gabriel Davis, and Dawson Knox — while incorporating rookie tight end Dalton Kincaid — Buffalo will win its fourth division title in a row.
If I had to pick my wild card in the division to throw some cash on it would be Miami.
Many seem to have questions about quarterback Tua Tagovailoa‘s health, but for me, that’s really my only question for this Dolphins’ roster. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle should have no problem picking up from where they left off one year ago — top five receivers in the league — and the Dolphins have many pass-catching options, including River Cracraft, Cedrick Wilson, Braxton Berrios, and Chosen Anderson. The running back position also finally doesn’t seem to be a question for them. Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson Jr. are back, who have experience playing under head coach Mike McDaniel in San Francisco as well as South Beach, drafted touted rookie Devon Achane, and still have Myles Gaskin and Salvon Ahmed who tag-teamed the backfield just a few years ago.
Its defense is also better. We know it can score and it just added cornerback Jalen Ramsey to opposite Xavien Howard. Kader Kohou and free safety Jevon Holland are back to play somewhat or a third corner in schemes at times. Miami will also deploy Bradley Chubb, who signed a multi-year deal after a trade last season, Christian Wilkins, Jaelan Phillips, Zach Sieler and Jerome Baker. Andrew Van Ginkel, Emmanuel Ogbah and Duke Reilly will also flex in for playing time — who would be full-time starters on other teams.
PICKS:
Buffalo Bills (+115): $5 down pays $10.75; $10 pays $21.50; $50 pays $107.50 and $100 pays $215.
Miami Dolphins (+300): $5 down pays $20; $10 pays $40; $50 pays $200 and $100 pays $400.
AFC SOUTH
Continuing in the AFC South, it’s the Jacksonville Jaguars coming in with the best odds. Both the South and West in the AFC have outright favorites. Jacksonville gets -150, while the Tennessee Titans (+400), Indianapolis Colts (+500), and Houston Texans (+700) follow in that order.
Jacksonville makes sense for clear multiple reasons, mostly because it has a developed, young quarterback who is proving to jive with the team’s offense, despite him entering his third season. The Colts and Texans each drafted signal callers in the Top 5 of this year’s NFL Draft hoping they’re their franchise guys. Ryan Tannehill is also fading in Tennessee, who we also saw draft a possible replacement for him for the second year in a row, in the early second round.
However, I do find it odd that the bet makers gave Jacksonville an outright win considering it has the worst running back room in the division. Travis Etienne is not proven and he is not better than Derrick Henry, Jonathan Taylor, or maybe even Dameon Pierce.
So it’s clear the passing game and chemistry between receiving options and Trevor Lawrence are clear tiers above the rest. Christian Kirk returns and will battle with ex-Atlanta Falcon Calvin Ridley as the team’s No. 1. Jacksonville took a chance and traded for Ridley while he was suspended for sports betting, and on paper, it has paid off, as the indefinite suspension has been lifted for Ridley. Zay Jones, who has bounced around the league since leaving East Carolina University with the most receptions as a college wideout, looks to finally have found a home after breaking out in the second half of last season. Pairing those three with franchise-tagged tight end Evan Engram, who the Jaguars smartly hitched to not have to spend the big bucks on yet, is an explosive offense that is very much so still under the radar.
If I had to pick my wild card in the division to throw some cash on it would be Indianapolis.
Rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson is not going to make or break this team in 2023. Gardner Mishew likely gets the start opening weekend and will work with other veterans in the lineup to show the Colts’ season last year was an ugly fluke. Taylor should be healthy and the additions of Isaiah McKenzie (free agency) and Josh Downs (draft) will open up No. 1 receiver Michael Pittman Jr. Alec Pierce could also help with the spread of the field, who averaged more than 20 yards per catch multiple times last season as a rookie with Matt Ryan. Shaq Leonard, E.J. Speed, Julian Blackmon, DeForest Buckner and Kwity Paye will also all start on defense again.
PICKS:
Jacksonville Jaguars (-150): $5 down pays $8.33; $10 pays $16.67; $50 pays $83.33 and $100 pays $166.67
Indianapolis Colts (+500): $5 down pays $30; $10 pays $60; $50 pays $300 and $100 pays $600
AFC WEST
Finally, it’s the defending Super Bowl Champions as the favorites in the West. Kansas City opens as -165 odds, followed by the Los Angeles Chargers (+325), Denver Broncos (+550), and Las Vegas Raiders (+1100).
It’s crazy, but it’s not Kansas City for me. I’m going with the Chargers.
Do I still recognize Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce as the most dominant same-team threat in the league? Yes. But there comes a time when you truly do need the complete-team aspect year-round. Mahomes and Kelce aren’t invincible, they and Kansas City lose games.
The Chargers lost to the Chiefs both times last year, but by three points each, and with injuries on both sides of the ball. I have fewer questions about Justin Herbert than I do other quarterbacks in his draft class and Austin Ekeler remains the best running back in the division — working as a three-down back at that. Keenan Allen, who has been wrongfully overshadowed in fantasy talks by Mike Williams in recent years, went above his career averages in yards per target and catch rate in 2022. He also averaged more than 75 yards per game, his most since 2017.
Williams is a big play or bust receiver who has been plagued with injuries. But when he’s on, he’s on. Los Angeles gave itself a buffer in the event he misses time again by drafting TCU’s Quentin Johnston. He’ll start over Jalen Guyton and Josh Palmer.
The Chargers’ defense, which dropped off in the second half of last season, is returning all of its starters AND added players in free agency that have jumped into starting roles. Joey Bosa, Khalil Mack, Asante Samuel Jr., and Derwin James will lead the defensive attack.
If I had to pick my wild card in the division to throw some cash on it would be Denver.
Why? Um, Sean Payton, really. But also, Russell Wilson doesn’t suck as his numbers from last season suggest.
The combination of Payton corralling Wilson and instilling an offense and defense that trusts in his history will change the culture in Denver. The Broncos also get wide receiver Tim Patrick back to add him to Jerry Jeudy and Cortland Sutton. This trio is under the radar, but a complete bunch that can make an impact if all remain healthy. Payton also knows how to develop and use tight ends. Remember Jimmy Graham in Mardi Gras land? Ex-Saint Adam Troutman has snuck his way into Denver and could be a 1-2 set with Greg Dulcich, who is looking for a breakout year. People have likely pushed the Broncos to the wayside, maybe because they don’t know what to expect, but that’s why you should bet on them.
PICKS:
Los Angeles Chargers (+325): $5 down pays $21.25; $10 pays $42.50; $50 pays $212.50 and $100 pays $425
Denver Broncos (+550): $5 down pays $32.50; $10 pays $65; $50 pays $325 and $100 pays $650
But, in one month players take the field. Will everyone named here still be on the field come September?
