In a little less than one month, players return to their respective NFL training camps. From free agency to trades to the draft, NFL teams are again shaken up with some new favorites as division winners as the new league year rolls around.
Chatter is slowly ramping up on which teams are the favorites to win divisions, playoff games, regular and postseason accolades — even though it’s early July.
On paper, we’re about 90 percent sure where impactful fantasy players will be playing in the fall. However, training camp and preseason seem to always claim victims, making what we see on paper now a little different in early September.
Last season, Cowboys star LT Tyron Smith played only four games after tearing his hamstring during training camp. Back in 2021, we lost the likes of J.K. Dobbins, Cam Akers, Michael Thomas, and Gus Edwards before the season even kicked off. In 2020, the Chargers’ team doctors punctured Tyrod Taylor’s lung, paving the way for Justin Herbert to burst on the scene before the team planned it.
But, if you had to place a bet on a team to win its respective division today with all the information you do know, it’s not too hard to figure out. Or, is it?
Check out: AFC Division Winner Future Bets
For the sake of this article, I’ll be using Bovada and its odds, since the site is available in all 50 states.
Like the AFC, the NFC also has two divisions with outright favorites.
NFC EAST
The Super Bowl runner-up Philadelphia Eagles are posting -120 before training camp, followed by the Dallas Cowboys (+190), New York Giants (+675), and Washington Commanders (+1100).
Analysts and fans are joking the Eagles should be called the Philadelphia Bulldogs or Georgia Eagles after bolstering their defense with even more Georgia Bulldog defenders from the NFL Draft.
Defensive tackle Jalen Carter and outside linebacker Nolan Smith, both from Georgia, were drafted by Philadelphia in the first round. Carter is slated to start, according to the Eagles’ depth chart, while Smith looks to backup Hasson Reddick. They join inside linebacker Nakobe Dean, nose tackle Jordan Davis, and cornerback Kelee Ringo (2023/4) as starters or direct backups fighting for playing time out of Georgia. Philadelphia already had a league-leading 5.5 yards per attempt allowed last season on defense and gave up the least amount of yards (3,057).
On offense, quarterback Jalen Hurts just secured one of the largest contracts in NFL history, and if A.J. Brown, Devonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert can stay healthy this season together, the Eagles will be a force. However, I don’t think their rushing game got better. D’Andre Swift and Rashaad Penny are injury prone, and a committee approach with Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott is likely again. The positive is that Miles Sanders no longer dawns the green and black.
While I expect Dallas to be better suited with Tony Pollard as its lead back, he’s coming off a nasty injury that happened during the team’s final game. I don’t think hop-around Brandin Cooks and Michael Gallup stack up as top receivers to bolster CeeDee Lamb. If Dalton Schultz was still a Cowboy, it would be a different story, but he’s not.
If I had to pick my wild card or long shot to win the division, it would be the Giants at +675.
The Giants pick rides on Daniel Jones taking the next step and Saquon Barkley staying healthy. Barkley in the backfield ultimately allows Jones to reach his ceiling. If I was in the Giants’ front office, paying Jones before Barkley is not something I would have done. Anyway, a healthy Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton, I think, could out-produce Lamb and Cooks/Gallup TOGETHER. They also have high-upside pieces in Isaiah Hodgins, Parris Campbell, Wan’Dale Robinson, and Jalin Hyatt, who all possess intriguing skill sets. Throw in Darren Waller and Daniel Bellinger as a two-tight-end set and we have a silent monster that is more than the talent of just Waller. Bellinger was on the cusp of a breakout season before breaking his eye socket last season. I also take the Giants’ defense over the Cowboys’.
PICKS:
Philadelphia Eagles (-120): $5 down pays $9.17; $10 pays $18.33; $50 pays $91.67 and $100 pays $183.33.
New York Giants (+675): $5 down pays $38.75; $10 pays $77.50; $50 pays $387.50 and $100 pays $775.
NFC WEST
The second outright favorite comes in the west with the San Francisco 49ers sitting at -175. Behind them sit the Seattle Seahawks (+225), Los Angeles Rams (+750), and Arizona Cardinals (+2500).
Like Philadelphia, San Francisco’s tumultuous defense propels it to be the favorite. That, paired with the lack of weapons in both Los Angeles and Arizona creates a clear gap. One year ago, no one was talking about a Geno Smith-led Seahawks team, let alone one that was competitive. But, because Tyler Lockett, D.K. Metcalf, and head coach Pete Carroll are back, and the team drafted Jaxon Smith-Njigba, it makes sense that the Seahawks are the 49ers’ competition.
Assuming he recovers from elbow surgery, Brock Purdy is San Francisco’s starting quarterback. The Trey Lance experience has all but failed. If it weren’t for the 49ers’ defense and the team having traded for running back Christian McCaffrey last season, I would pick Seattle over San Francisco. I don’t want any part of the 49ers receivers. But, Deebo Samuel? No. He averaged approximately a yard and a half less per reception from two seasons ago to last season, and that was with the incoming miracle of Purdy. Samuel doesn’t want to be used in the run game anymore, and losing him as a two-way player only hurts the 49ers. Brandon Aiyuk and Jauan Jennings? Be more consistent and prove something to me. Because I think the 49ers’ defense will do enough to not require the team to need massive numbers to secure W’s, a lack of consistent offense won’t be a big deal like it is for a majority of NFL teams.
The winner of this division I think comes down to division play. +225 for Seattle makes sense here. Placing them anything less would be misplaced and anything higher is disrespectful – assuming all its starters remain healthy, especially Kenneth Walker, who the Seahawks will need to have an offensive attack to stay in games. Jarran Reed, Bobby Wagner, Quandre Diggs, and rookie Devon Witherspoon are also capable of leading a successful defense.
PICKS:
San Francisco 49ers (-175): $5 down pays $7.86; $10 pays $15.71; $50 pays $78.57 and $100 pays $157.14.
Seattle Seahawks (+225): $5 down pays $16.25; $10 pays $32.50; $50 pays $162.50 and $100 pays $325.
NFC NORTH
Next, it seems like no one knows who’s going to be good or bad in the NFC North. Only 265 lengths separate all four teams.
I cleaned my glasses, and Bovada still lists the Detroit Lions as the favorites to win the division at +135. Following them sits the Minnesota Vikings (+275), Green Bay Packers (+375), and Chicago Bears (+400).
Even without running back Dalvin Cook, Minnesota takes this division to me.
Alexander Mattison has shown in previous seasons that he can put up numbers without Cook, and this isn’t a new back to the offense – or NFL – like the running backs in Detroit. The Vikings are methodically working in backfield successors while setting up the team for success, something not seen much at any level. They drafted DeWayne McBride this year, who has been compared to Mattison, and he should move up in the depth chart. Right now, Mattison’s competition in Detroit is David Montgomery, that will likely be Jamyhr Gibbs before too long, but he hasn’t taken a professional snap.
Kirk Cousins is also more reliable than Jared Goff, as is Justin Jefferson to Amon-Ra St. Brown. Minnesota was also smart in the sense that it went out and drafted a receiver, Jordan Addison, to replace Adam Thielen, who departed for Carolina. Ex-Lion T.J. Hockenson is the starter in Minnesota, who will go against Iowa-counterpart Sam LaPorta at the tight end position. Experience and proven production should have Minnesota as the favorite in the North.
If I had to pick my wild card in the division to throw some cash on it, it would be Green Bay.
Not everyone departed the Packers with Aaron Rodgers, okay.
With the success Green Bay’s organization has had this century, it isn’t just going to fall off the map. Sure, Jordan Love isn’t proven, but in all honesty, neither is Goff. The tandem of Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillion should work great again, and until Detroit commits to Gibbs full-time, the run game will be plagued by Montgomery. Additionally, a healthy Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs would go a long way in helping two rookie tight ends and Love. It’s also important to note that Kenny Clark, Jaire Alexander, Quay Walker, and Darnell Savage remain on defense and the team has received the additions of Preston Smith (Washington) and De’Vondre Campbell (Arizona), too.
PICKS:
Minnesota Vikings (+275): $5 down pays $18.75; $10 pays $37.50; $50 pays $187.50 and $100 pays $375
Green Bay Packers (+375): $5 down pays $23.75; $10 pays $47.50; $50 pays $227.50 and $100 pays $475
NFC SOUTH
Finally, in the South, oddsmakers have a toss-up between three teams involving all but the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+700).
The New Orleans Saints are the favorites with their new quarterback at +125, while the Atlanta Falcons (+225) and Carolina Panthers (+325) follow.
Derek Carr is finally in a division he can win, and with what the Saints have quietly done this offseason on defense, it should be enough to win one of the weakest divisions in the NFL.
Carr, paired with both Alvin Kamara and Jamaal Williams, can run an offense that can be successful whether the once-great Michael Thomas is healthy or not. Chris Olave, who showed sparks of brilliance last season, is an added bonus.
On defense, linebacker DeMario Davis, safety Tyrann Mathieu, and cornerback Bradley Roby joined the Saints who still front Marshon Lattimore, Cameron Joyner, and Pete Werner.
In a division with a handful of signal callers without a playoff resume, the Falcons are building something around Desmond Ridder. Atlanta gives me the most hope as the wildcard here.
Drafting running back Bijan Robinson is a difference-maker, and maybe this is the year Kyle Pitts makes himself known. With Jonnu Smith now a Falcon, this would allow one of them to be open on passing downs, and the sensical thought would make it be Pitts. Furthermore, wideout Mack Hollins joins an Atlanta team who could challenge Drake London for the No. 1 wideout position. Hollins was buried in recent stops with the Dolphins and Raiders and his NFL experience outweighs London’s by a mile, including his deep-threat ability. A few outlets are saying Hollins will need an injury to London or Pitts to see consistent targets, but I don’t think that’ll be true.
PICKS:
New Orleans Saints (+125): $5 down pays $11.25; $10 pays $22.50; $50 pays $112.50 and $100 pays $225.
Atlanta Falcons (+225): $5 down pays $16.25; $10 pays $32.50; $50 pays $162.50 and $100 pays $325.
But, in less than one month players take the field. Will everyone named here still be on the field come September?
