This 2022 NFL off-season just. won’t. stop. The Dolphins dropped another bomb on Wednesday afternoon when they dealt five draft picks to the Chiefs in exchange for Tyreek Hill. Yep, you’ve got it right. The Dolphins are adding Hill to an already loaded weapons cabinet that includes Jaylen Waddle, DeVante Parker, Cedrick Wilson, Mike Gesicki, and Chase Edmonds. Meanwhile, Patrick Mahomes can no longer depend on the most electric player in the league to make plays downfield and after the catch.
All-in-all, the 2022 fantasy football implications are massive in this blockbuster deal.
TYREEK HILL 2022 FANTASY OUTLOOK
One could easily argue Tyreek Hill will miss Patrick Mahomes more than Patrick Mahomes will miss Tyreek Hill. We know all about their dynamic connection, mostly because of Hill’s vertical speed and how it meshes perfectly with Mahomes’ generational deep ball.
However, did people forget Hill popped off in 2017 with the king of all noodle arms, Alex Smith? As a 23-year-old pup, Hill broke out with 75-1,183-7 on 105 targets with Smith under center. The 65-yard bombs will be limited with Tua in Mike McDaniel’s system, but let’s not forget Hill can turn a shallow crosser into a house call. Tagovailoa ranked 30th in deep-ball pass attempts with 28 last season, but he was first in the league in deep ball completion percentage at 50%.
Hill will not be able to reproduce last season’s 111-1,239-9 with Tagovailoa. But, I wouldn’t count out another 1,000-yard season to go along with 85 to 95 receptions.
As a result, Hill dropped from WR3 to our WR8 on The Wolf’s 2022 Fantasy Football Rankings.
DOLPHINS FANTASY OUTLOOKS
Tagovailoa gets an obvious bump up from this trade and the other moves the team made this off-season. The Dolphins traded for Hill and signed Terron Armstead, Edmonds, Raheem Mostert, and Wilson. They also tagged Gesicki and re-signed Preston Williams to go along with Parker. One could make a solid argument that Tagovailoa is in a can’t fail position with this surrounding cast — not to mention he will have a young, creative play-caller at the helm.
Most fantasy owners are wondering how this will impact Jaylen Waddle. We expected Waddle to flourish in McDaniel’s system as his next Deebo Samuel. And while he will still eat, he and Hill could cannibalize each other due to their similar skill-sets.
In fact, Dolphins’ WR coach, Wes Welker, compared Waddle to Tyreek just a few weeks ago.
“I think it’s acceleration,” Welker expressed. “Especially like when he gets a ball in his hands. We’ve got the ball in his hands, it’s kind of Tyreek Hill-ish, how he’s just able to get that ball and really burst out of it. A little bit different body types and stuff. But I kind of that’s what came to mind whenever I was kind of watching him coming to Alabama and seeing him on film here.”
Waddle was a deep threat at Alabama, but only saw 12 targets of over 20 yards as a rookie. We’ll see how Hill and Waddle will co-exist in McDaniel’s offense, but for now, we had to bump Waddle down eight spots on our rankings to WR21.
As for DeVante Parker, Wilson, and Gesicki? They all fell a bit after the trade.
CHIEFS FANTASY OUTLOOKS
Patrick Mahomes will definitely take a step back from a fantasy perspective. Hill’s track speed and skill-set opens things up for others and he can take an end-around or crosser to the house while breaking ankles in the process. With Mecole Hardman, Byron Pringle, and Demarcus Robinson unable to take much-needed leaps over the last few seasons, Mahomes has overly relied on Hill and Travis Kelce to keep the passing offense dangerous.
Although Hill takes the top off the defense and takes safety attention away from Kelce, the No. 1 fantasy tight end should still put up his numbers. Kelce will continue to terrorize linebackers and safeties and should see his eighth straight season of 100-plus targets. It also shouldn’t surprise anyone if he puts up a similar stat-line to last season when he recorded 92 receptions for 1,125 yards and nine touchdowns on 134 targets. Kelce does turn 33 this season, but he hasn’t shown significant signs of slowing down.
Two beneficiaries of this trade have to be JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman (for now). Smith-Schuster will immediately be Mahomes’ WR1, while Hardman can attempt to take over the Tyreek-lite role that fantasy owners have been begging for since he arrived in Kansas City. Hill opens up 159 targets from last year’s totem pole, which should benefit JuJu and Hardman. Is it crazy to call Smith-Schuster a solid fantasy WR2 with a 100-reception upside? Plus, Hardman averages three more PPR PPG and over 20 yards more per game with Tyreek out of the lineup.
The team also added Marquez Valdes-Scantling, who will take over the vertical route tree. He’s not very good, but it’s hard to completely discredit a burner in this system.
MVS and Hardman’s fantasy outlooks will ultimately hinge on what the Chiefs do in the draft. They have six picks in the first three rounds and will likely take a stud early on. Imagine the Chiefs using picks 29 or 30 on Chris Olave, Jameson Williams, Treylon Burks, or Jahan Dotson? Then, George Pickens, Skyy Moore, or Christian Watson falling to them at 50 or 62 overall? Things could get scary if they look to reload for Mahomes.
SUMMARY
While some players, such as Tagovailoa, Kelce, and JuJu should benefit from this move, most of the players involved will be negatively impacted. Keep tabs on The Wolf’s 2022 Fantasy Football Rankings to see where these fantasy weapons fluctuate as the off-season of madness continues to roll on.
