Fantasy Football Week 10 Buy-Low, Sell-High Using Expected Fantasy Points (2021) - Roto Street Journal
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Fantasy Football Week 10 Buy-Low, Sell-High Using Expected Fantasy Points (2021)

I built the model below based on a metric called Expected Fantasy Points (XFP). XFP calculates the value of each target and rushing attempt based on the distance to the end zone and air yards. These historical data attributes correlate highly with actual fantasy points scored (PPR scoring).

XFP essentially shows what a typical player would have done with the opportunities seen by any given player. For a more in-depth breakdown of Expected Fantasy Points, click here.

The main purpose of using my XFP model is to help you win trades during the season. We want to sell players who are unsustainably outproducing their expected numbers. We should buy players who are seeing plenty of volume but are underperforming due to bad luck.

I publish a weekly trade value chart with specific values for every player based on a similar methodology. For tips on negotiating trades, click here.

Below, you can find expected fantasy points for each player along with their average carries, targets, and air yards through Week 6.

Check out the PDF DOWNLOAD and EXCEL DOWNLOAD links if you prefer to browse the data that way. The Excel download link has sortable data broken out for Weeks 1-9 individually.

Be sure to scroll down below the chart to find specific players I am looking to buy-low and sell-high this week.

PlayerTMPOSGPPR AVGXFP AVGDIF AVGCAR AVGTGT AVGAIR YDS AVG
N.HARRISPITRB819.923-3.119.36.50
D.HENRYTENRB824.222.1228.52.5-0.4
C.KUPPLAWR926.2224.20.111.4100.2
A.KAMARANORB819.821.5-1.818.85.54.3
T.HILLKCWR920.621.4-0.90.711.3122.9
D.ADAMSGBWR819.320.4-1.1010.9127.9
C.RIDLEYATLWR514.220-5.8010.4104.2
C.MCCAFFREYCARRB418.319.6-1.416.85.55.5
D.COOKMINRB614.819.3-4.520.23.8-6.7
D.SWIFTDETRB818.219.3-1.111.87.11
K.ALLENLACWR816.118.9-2.8010.381.6
D.MOORECARWR915.618.8-3.20.89.7109.3
D.JOHNSONPITWR717.118.6-1.50.49.992.9
A.EKELERLACRB820.618.61.913.45.67.1
D.SAMUELSFWR820.718.62.10.81082.3
T.MCLAURINWASWR815.718.2-2.50.19.5118.6
E.ELLIOTTDALRB817.317.6-0.216.43.6-1.5
J.TAYLORINDRB920.717.43.316.13.2-5.2
L.FOURNETTETBRB815.217.4-2.212.84.95.9
B.COOKSHOUWR914.817.2-2.40.19.2109.6
S.DIGGSBUFWR815.617.2-1.609.1104.3
C.GODWINTBWR81817.10.90.38.872.6
D.WALLERLVTE714.117.1-309.191.7
M.BROWNBALWR818.817.11.80.18.6124.8
A.JONESGBRB916.516.9-0.413.34.63.7
D.HENDERSONLARB816.516.40.115.33.54.3
D.PARKERMIAWR512.716.3-3.508.6102.2
T.KELCEKCTE916.116.3-0.208.971.6
M.WILLIAMSLACWR816.616.20.408.398.6
J.WADDLEMIAWR913.516.2-2.60.18.960.6
C.LAMBDALWR816.316.10.10.58.3101.1
J.JEFFERSONMINWR816.616.10.50.18.598.3
S.SHEPARDNYGWR513.916.1-2.20.28.662.2
J.CHASECINWR918.7162.70.48.1106.8
M.EVANSTBWR817.7161.707.9115.6
J.MIXONCINRB917.715.91.7172.9-2.9
A.BROWNTBWR519.115.93.20.28.4111.4
T.HIGGINSCINWR712.915.8-2.908.193.6
A.THIELENMINWR816.915.71.10.18.376.1
C.PATTERSONATLRB819.215.53.79.15.822.3
A.BROWNTENWR814.215.4-1.20.18.192.8
K.HUNTCLERB617.415.32.112.54-0.2
R.WOODSLAWR915.215.200.97.762.6
M.CARTERNYJRB812.815.2-2.4114.91.8
M.PITTMANINDWR916.315.11.20.27.981.9
C.BEASLEYBUFWR812.715-2.308.448.3
J.MEYERSNEWR911.814.8-30873.6
M.ANDREWSBALTE81514.50.507.679
A.COOPERDALWR815.414.50.907.596.5
C.CLAYPOOLPITWR711.914.4-2.40.97.484.7
C.SUTTONDENWR912.614.3-1.707.1114.6
J.ROBINSONJAXRB715.614.21.412.73.40.4
T.HOCKENSONDETTE813.414.1-0.807.956.6
J.JACOBSLVRB614.814.10.712.83.3-2.2
M.GASKINMIARB912.114.1-1.99.85.10.1
M.JONESJAXWR811.714-2.307.387
H.RENFROWLVWR813.513.7-0.307.545.6
C.DAVISNYJWR613.813.70.107100.8
K.PITTSATLTE812.113.6-1.607.179.8
S.BARKLEYNYGRB512.913.5-0.61143.8
J.CROWDERNYJWR51213.4-1.407.437.8
D.MONTGOMERYCHIRB51413.30.716.62.20.6
T.LOCKETTSEAWR814.613.21.407.387.4
G.KITTLESFTE512.513.2-0.60.27.462.4
Z.MOSSBUFRB711.413.1-1.79.63.61
A.GIBSONWASRB81213-114.42.6-3.5
D.METCALFSEAWR818.1135.20779
N.CHUBBCLERB717.3134.317.61.12.4
M.DAVISATLRB89.112.9-3.810.64-7
D.HARRISNERB912.212.8-0.615.21.40.3
E.SANDERSBUFWR812.612.8-0.20.16.4111
D.SMITHPHIWR911.512.7-1.206.895.1
M.GESICKIMIATE912.312.7-0.406.968.9
M.GORDONDENRB913.112.50.612.62.82.8
D.MOONEYCHIWR911.312.4-1.10.26.677.4
D.HOPKINSARIWR815.712.33.406.173.9
D.WILLIAMSKCRB910.312.2-1.99.63.1-0.2
C.HUBBARDCARRB99.312.2-2.912.434
D.BOOKERNYGRB810.712.1-1.410.82.9-1.1
R.BATEMANBALWR39.412-2.706.773.3
N.FANTDENTE810.912-1.106.639.6
M.GALLUPDALWR17.612-4.40742
C.EDMONDSARIRB910.911.9-18.74.12.9
M.SANDERSPHIRB7911.9-2.99.13.4-7.6
J.MCKISSICWASRB811.411.8-0.34.15.311.9
S.WATKINSBALWR59.411.8-2.306.485.2
J.WILLIAMSDENRB910.211.7-1.510.82.9-1.3
J.JEUDYDENWR311.311.4-0.10.36.354.7
D.CHARKJAXWR48.611.2-2.605.598.8
J.LANDRYCLEWR58.811.2-2.40.65.845.6
R.ANDERSONCARWR95.811.1-5.40.15.970
D.SCHULTZDALTE812.211.11.106.141.4
O.BECKHAMCLEWR66.911.1-4.10.35.779
M.HARDMANKCWR98.910.9-20.45.941.1
A.PETERSONTENRB19.610.9-1.3101-4
L.SHENAULTJAXWR88.610.9-2.30.6636.9
E.MOORENYJWR79.310.9-1.60.35.768.3
T.BOYDCINWR910.310.9-0.606.143.6
C.EDWARDS-HELAIREKCRB510.510.8-0.313.22-3.6
J.CONNERARIRB914.710.83.912.91.10
E.MITCHELLSFRB613.510.82.815.21.5-1.7
A.GREENARIWR811.610.70.905.465.9
R.GRONKOWSKITBTE414.610.73.905.349.3
D.SINGLETARYBUFRB88.810.7-1.99.13.41.5
A.MILLERHOUWR26.710.6-405.537
P.BARBERLVRB38.810.6-1.812.71.76
Z.PASCALINDWR98.910.6-1.705.651
C.CARSONSEARB41210.51.513.51.5-3.3
J.WILLIAMSDETRB79.910.4-0.510.12.60.3
J.WHITENERB310.410.403.34.717
T.JOHNSONNYJRB88.910.2-1.353.611.3
J.SMITH-SCHUSTERPITWR5710.2-3.30.65.636.6
A.ROBINSONCHIWR97.810.2-2.405.665
V.JEFFERSONLAWR99.810.1-0.305.166.7
T.PATRICKDENWR912.110.1205.264.1
C.KIRKARIWR913.410.13.40.15.366.6
H.RUGGSLVWR712.1102.10.45.186.9
E.ENGRAMNYGTE78.310-1.70.15.128.6
T.HIGBEELATE98.89.8-105.125.2
K.DRAKELVRB810.89.81.15.93.99.5
J.COOKLACTE899.7-0.705.340.1
Z.ERTZARITE98.89.6-0.90.1537.1
K.GOLLADAYNYGWR68.39.6-1.305.271.2
J.JONESTENWR69.19.6-0.505.263
T.CONKLINMINTE899.5-0.505.526
M.VALDES-SCANTLINGGBWR45.99.5-3.604.591.8
A.MATTISONMINRB87.69.5-1.89.62.50.1
M.CALLAWAYNOWR89.69.40.204.961.5
K.RAYMONDDETWR89.19.3-0.20.3555.6
Q.CEPHUSDETWR59.99.20.604.651.2
K.GAINWELLPHIRB98.39.2-14.73.48.1
C.KMETCHITE96.39.1-2.90.14.944.8
W.FULLERMIAWR209.1-9.10475
A. ST. BROWNDETWR86.88.8-204.837.4
K.OSBORNMINWR89.58.80.70.1537.5
N.HINESINDRB988.7-0.84.63.93.7
N.AGHOLORNEWR97.68.7-1.20.14.672.3
D.KNOXBUFTE613.68.74.904.538.3
T.POLLARDDALRB89.88.71.19.42.3-1.3
D.GOEDERTPHITE810.18.71.504.641.6
R.MOOREARIWR98.88.60.21.24.67
C.HYDEJAXRB74.88.5-3.78.32.15.7
R.GAGEATLWR57.68.4-0.904.632.6
B.EDWARDSLVWR87.38.4-1.104.365.3
A.COLLINSSEARB77.88.4-0.510.710.4
K.TONEYNYGWR88.18.3-0.20.44.529.1
J.HASTYSFRB56.68.3-1.72.63.67.8
H.HENRYNETE99.88.21.704.237.6
D.HARRISNOWR79.78.11.50.34.446
T.HILTONINDWR27.88.1-0.30465.5
D.AMENDOLAHOUWR56.28.1-1.804.631
B.AIYUKSFWR86.98.1-1.20.43.939.3
D.JOHNSONHOURB96.38-1.73.83.311.1
K.BOURNENEWR99.981.90.24.343.8
D.SLAYTONNYGWR66.28-1.804.358.3
P.FREIERMUTHPITTE89.481.504.123
J.O'SHAUGHNESSYJAXTE27.17.7-0.604.529.5
A.DILLONGBRB97.47.6-0.28.61.82.4
K.HERBERTCHIRB96.27.5-1.39.61.1-3.4
J.AGNEWJAXWR86.47.3-0.90.4425
P.WILLIAMSMIAWR34.17.3-3.20.3437.3
J.SMITHNETE95.47.2-1.90.43.816.4
J.REAGORPHIWR95.87.2-1.40.43.736.3
R.STEVENSONNERB56.87.2-0.37.21.60
R.SEALS-JONESWASTE86.57.1-0.603.819.1
D.ARNOLDJAXTE85.67.1-1.50421.4
L.MURRAYBALRB68.671.6100.8-0.5
R.COBBGBWR97.670.60.13.128
R.TONYANGBTE86.36.7-0.403.632
L.THOMASWASTE48.46.71.703.526.3
S.MICHELLARB95.66.7-1.181.1-0.4
D.WILLIAMSCHIRB76.26.6-0.45.32-1.3
Q.WATKINSPHIWR96.86.60.203.446
N.COLLINSHOUWR65.76.6-0.903.734.2
K.COLENYJWR766.6-0.603.444.7
K.HAMLERDENWR34.16.5-2.403.367
J.MCNICHOLSTENRB96.46.5-0.11.63.3-0.6
C.WILSONDALWR88.56.42.10.33.431.8
T.WILLIAMSBALRB66.96.40.55.81.85.5
A.HUMPHRIESWASWR85.36.4-1.103.627.8
L.BELLBALRB45.36.4-1.17.80.80
D.FREEMANBALRB77.36.3151.74
D.BROWNWASWR62.76.3-3.60.23.346.5
P.CAMPBELLINDWR56.46.30.203.446.2
B.BERRIOSNYJWR85.66.3-0.60.33.522.5
A.TRAUTMANNOTE83.56.2-2.703.319.4
A.HOOPERCLETE95.16.2-1.103.313.6
G.BERNARDTBRB77.76.21.50.93.31.7
B.BOLDENNERB96.46.10.32.62.72.1
T.MARSHALLCARWR73.76-2.403.320.4
C.BRATETBTE83.26-2.803.126.5
K.STILLSNOWR62.95.8-2.90.22.863.3
M.WILLIAMSARITE58.35.82.503.418
D.NJOKUCLETE97.55.71.70325.2
S.PERINECINRB86.45.70.74.81.92
J.AKINSHOUTE945.7-1.70.13.118.7
N.WESTBROOK-IKHINETENWR85.15.6-0.602.827.1
O.ZACCHEAUSATLWR865.60.402.827.5
C.UZOMAHCINTE99.65.6403.116.2
R.GRIFFINNYJTE83.75.5-1.803.118.3
J.TAYLORNERB44.65.5-0.93.51-0.5
H.HURSTATLTE855.5-0.503.119
F.SWAINSEAWR865.50.50.5320.8
M.ALIE-COXINDTE96.55.5102.932.3
S.AHMEDMIARB93.45.5-2.14.41.95.4
J.ROSSNYGWR65.55.40.102.748
K.RUDOLPHNYGTE945.4-1.402.613.1
J.HOWARDPHIRB26.65.41.28.500
D.PEOPLES-JONESCLEWR78.953.902.646.1
A.OKWUEGBUNAMDENTE64.94.70.202.75.7
M.INGRAMNORB93.54.7-1.25.71.1-0.9
E.BENJAMINARIRB33.31.51.8300

WEEK 10 BUY-LOW

BRANDIN COOKS

Brandin Cooks has been seeing excellent volume all season, but in the three games with Tyrod Taylor playing quarterback, his numbers are insane. In Taylor’s three starts, Cooks is averaging a staggering 11.3 targets per game. He isn’t purely catching check-downs either, averaging 141.3 air yards and a healthy 12.5 average depth of target (aDOT) with Tyrod under center.

Cooks is averaging 21.5 expected fantasy points per game across these three starts, which would be good for the WR2 overall in XFP behind only Cooper Kupp. This number is likely aided a little by variance over a small sample, but even when including games with Davis Mills, Cooks is still the WR11 in XFP per game with 17.2. The Texans have nobody else compete for targets, so Cooks is very likely to continue to see elite usage in the second half of the season.

His efficiency has also been better with Taylor, as he is averaging 17.5 PPR points in his starts compared to 13.5 with Mills. Taylor started in Week 9 for the first time since his hamstring injury and fed Cooks another 13 targets. The six-catch, 56 yard stat line doesn’t look great, but this is an excellent opportunity to buy low on a receiver locked into elite usage.

MARK ANDREWS

Like Cooks, Mark Andrews is another player who has seen a recent dip in production despite solid volume. He is currently the TE3 behind Kelce and Waller in XFP with 14.5 per game. His 15.0 PPR points per game are good for the overall TE2 behind Kelce.

I have no concerns about his workload going forward, but recent results make this week a solid buying opportunity for Andrews. He hasn’t scored double-digit PPR points since Week 6 (with a bye in Week 8), and managers are likely frustrated at the lack of production.

Andrews has only averaged 8.6 PPR points over the previous two games. However, he is averaging 8.5 targets and 15.3 XFP over these two games, which are both slightly higher than his season average. The Wolf and I both rank Andrews as our rest of the season TE3 based on his talent and workload. He is very close in value to Kyle Pitts and George Kittle, but Andrews is my favorite trade target due to the likely affordable cost to acquire.

MYLES GASKIN

Earlier in the season, Myles Gaskin had an extremely inconsistent workload and was impossible to project week-to-week. However, since teammate Malcolm Brown was placed on IR with a quad injury, Gaskin’s workload has been consistently solid.

Over the past three weeks with Brown out, Gaskin is averaging 17.0 XFP on 16.3 carries and 4.7 targets per game. That 17.0 average would rank just ahead of Aaron Jones for the RB11 spot in XFP. It’s hard to tell by just looking at his 14.0 PPR scoring average over this stretch, but he has played nearly 65% of the snaps and quietly taken over the Dolphins backfield.

Gaskin isn’t getting the credit he deserves for his impressive workload increase in Brown’s absence. Brown is guaranteed to miss Week 10 since he must miss a minimum of three weeks on IR, but the team has been quiet on his injury. He could be out much longer. Given the low cost to acquire him, I would be willing to take the chance that Gaskin maintains his current role if I needed running back help.

WEEK 10 SELL-HIGH

NICK CHUBB

2021 Stats Above

In 2020, Chubb played 52.3% of the snaps in his healthy games. This was my pre-draft analysis of Chubb:

Chubb is a great player, but his low snap share and lack of receiving role limit his upside. Chubb made up for his lack of volume with elite talent and efficiency last year and still finished as the PPR RB7 on a per-game basis in 2020 after adjusting for an in-game injury. He is a great player, but it is hard to see a ceiling much higher than his 2020 results without significantly more volume.

Here is The Wolf’s fantasy philosophy from his excellent 2021 Investing Guide, which I completely agree with:

I’m 100% an upside chaser. Always have been, and the great Scott Barrett explains clearly why that’s the right philosophy here.

To sum up his research: every fantasy season boils down to a small handful of “League-Winners,” and the rest simply don’t matter. If you owned Christian McCaffrey in 2019, you had a 48% chance of making your championship, regardless of who you surrounded him with. Insanity.

While frustrating for “analysts” (addicts) like myself who pour 12+ hours a day researching hundreds of players, perhaps you’ll be comforted knowing your job is unearthing only 2-3 true game-changers.

Thus, every one of your 15-20 “at-bats” should be homerun hacks at finding these guys.

Despite losing Kareem Hunt to a calf injury, Chubb has played only 53.0% of the snaps when active this season. The Browns clearly don’t want to give him more snaps or any significant target share, and he’s already maximizing the efficiency of his touches. He is averaging 6.0 yards per carry and 0.9 touchdowns per game in 2021, extremely similar to his 5.6 yards per carry and 1.0 touchdowns from last year.

Chubb is currently the RB23 in XFP with 13.0 per game, and the RB12 in points per game with 17.3. He has once again been a great real-life player, but given his nonexistent receiving role and already insane efficiency, it’s hard to see how he can improve his results.

I would still prefer to turn Chubb into a different running back with a better workload, even if I had to give up a little extra to make it happen. After Week 1, I was crucified for suggesting to sell Chubb for Joe Mixon. Mixon now leads Chubb in both points per game and XFP per game despite leaving a game early for injury, and I believe Mixon still has more upside given their respective workloads. Other players I prefer include D’Andre Swift, Saquon Barkley, Ezekiel Elliott, and Aaron Jones.

SITUATION DEPENDENT

JAMES CONNER

I wanted to highlight James Conner in a separate section because he could potentially be a buy or a sell this week depending on your situation. Teammate Chase Edmonds suffered a high-ankle sprain and played only one snap in Week 9. In his absence, Conner was handed a true bellcow workload and dominated to the tune of 40.3 fantasy points on a 21-96-2 rushing line and 5-77-1 receiving.

His role was good for 21.5 XFP, and the workload should remain elite as long as Edmonds is out. Dr. David Chao of profootballdoc.com believes an IR stint is in play for Edmonds.

I suggested selling Conner mostly due to unsustainable touchdown production before Edmonds got hurt. Now, Conner is an elite asset for as long as Edmonds misses time, which seems likely to be a few weeks. Once Edmonds returns, I expect Conner to regress below his pre-Week 9 production for the reasons outlined last week. I don’t want to rely on him in the fantasy playoffs if I can avoid doing so.

If you are on the playoff bubble and desperate for wins in the next few weeks, I would buy Conner. The likely elite production over the next few weeks will help you get into the playoffs. If you can make the playoffs, you always have a chance for variance to carry you to the title against a stronger team. Focus on making the playoffs before putting together a playoff lineup

However, if you are near the top of your league, I would try to sell Conner to one of the teams desperate for short-term production. Teams at the top should focus on assembling the best playoff roster possible. First-round byes are also critical, but I would still prefer to pay more to acquire players that will both help secure a bye and fortify your playoff lineup if you need to plug holes.

FINAL THOUGHTS

Now that you’re an Expected Fantasy Points Expert, you can use the tool to dominate your league. Check out my trade value chart, which also incorporates expected fantasy points data, and check back next week for more players to buy low and sell high. Please send any questions or feedback to @RSJ_Jackson on Twitter!

Author

  • I am currently working as an accountant and have been obsessed with fantasy football for over 10 years. My specialties are auction draft strategy and discovering unique team management strategies to maximize winning odds. Thanks for reading!

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