I built the model below based on a metric called Expected Fantasy Points (XFP). XFP calculates the value of each target and rushing attempt based on the distance to the end zone and air yards. These historical data attributes correlate highly with actual fantasy points scored (PPR scoring).
XFP essentially shows what a typical player would have done with the opportunities seen by any given player. For a more in-depth breakdown of Expected Fantasy Points, click here.
The main purpose of using my XFP model is to help you win trades during the season. We want to sell players who are unsustainably outproducing their expected numbers. We should buy players who are seeing plenty of volume but are underperforming due to bad luck.
I publish a weekly trade value chart with specific values for every player based on a similar methodology. For tips on negotiating trades, click here.
Below, you can find expected fantasy points for each player along with their average carries, targets, and air yards through Week 6.
Check out the PDF DOWNLOAD and EXCEL DOWNLOAD links if you prefer to browse the data that way. The Excel download link has sortable data broken out for Weeks 1-8 individually.
Be sure to scroll down below the chart to find specific players I am looking to buy-low and sell-high this week.
| Player | TM | POS | G | PPR AVG | XFP AVG | DIF AVG | CAR AVG | TGT AVG | AIR YDS AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N.HARRIS | PIT | RB | 7 | 20.3 | 24 | -3.7 | 18.9 | 7 | 0.7 |
| D.HENRY | TEN | RB | 8 | 24.2 | 22.1 | 2 | 28.5 | 2.5 | -0.4 |
| C.KUPP | LA | WR | 8 | 26.9 | 21.9 | 4.9 | 0.1 | 11.3 | 106 |
| T.HILL | KC | WR | 8 | 22.2 | 21.4 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 11.4 | 113.4 |
| A.KAMARA | NO | RB | 7 | 19.7 | 21.2 | -1.6 | 19.3 | 5.3 | 5.1 |
| C.MCCAFFREY | CAR | RB | 3 | 19.5 | 20.9 | -1.4 | 17.3 | 5.7 | 4 |
| C.RIDLEY | ATL | WR | 5 | 14.2 | 20 | -5.8 | 0 | 10.4 | 104.2 |
| D.JOHNSON | PIT | WR | 6 | 18 | 19.8 | -1.8 | 0.2 | 10.5 | 102 |
| D.ADAMS | GB | WR | 7 | 20.6 | 19.8 | 0.9 | 0 | 10.4 | 123 |
| D.MOORE | CAR | WR | 8 | 16.6 | 19.4 | -2.8 | 0.6 | 10 | 111.1 |
| D.SWIFT | DET | RB | 8 | 18.2 | 19.3 | -1.1 | 11.8 | 7.1 | 1 |
| D.SAMUEL | SF | WR | 7 | 22 | 18.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 10.1 | 82.4 |
| D.COOK | MIN | RB | 5 | 14.7 | 18.9 | -4.2 | 20.6 | 4 | -7.6 |
| A.EKELER | LAC | RB | 7 | 21.9 | 18.7 | 3.2 | 12.6 | 6 | 9 |
| T.MCLAURIN | WAS | WR | 8 | 15.7 | 18.2 | -2.5 | 0.1 | 9.5 | 118.6 |
| E.ELLIOTT | DAL | RB | 7 | 18 | 18.2 | -0.2 | 17.1 | 3.7 | -1.3 |
| K.ALLEN | LAC | WR | 7 | 15.2 | 18.1 | -2.8 | 0 | 9.9 | 81.4 |
| A.JONES | GB | RB | 8 | 17.9 | 17.8 | 0.1 | 13.4 | 4.9 | 3.9 |
| S.DIGGS | BUF | WR | 7 | 15.8 | 17.7 | -1.9 | 0 | 9.3 | 108.9 |
| L.FOURNETTE | TB | RB | 8 | 15.2 | 17.4 | -2.2 | 12.8 | 4.9 | 5.9 |
| J.TAYLOR | IND | RB | 8 | 19.1 | 17.3 | 1.8 | 15.6 | 3.4 | -5.5 |
| C.GODWIN | TB | WR | 8 | 18 | 17.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 8.8 | 72.6 |
| D.HENDERSON | LA | RB | 7 | 17.5 | 17 | 0.6 | 15.7 | 3.4 | 6.4 |
| J.JEFFERSON | MIN | WR | 7 | 16.5 | 16.9 | -0.4 | 0 | 9 | 101 |
| M.WILLIAMS | LAC | WR | 7 | 17.8 | 16.6 | 1.3 | 0 | 8.7 | 103.6 |
| D.WALLER | LV | TE | 6 | 13.8 | 16.5 | -2.7 | 0 | 8.8 | 90.5 |
| B.COOKS | HOU | WR | 8 | 15.3 | 16.5 | -1.2 | 0.1 | 8.8 | 108.1 |
| D.PARKER | MIA | WR | 5 | 12.7 | 16.3 | -3.5 | 0 | 8.6 | 102.2 |
| T.KELCE | KC | TE | 8 | 15.9 | 16.2 | -0.4 | 0 | 9 | 71.8 |
| S.SHEPARD | NYG | WR | 5 | 13.9 | 16.1 | -2.2 | 0.2 | 8.6 | 62.2 |
| M.BROWN | BAL | WR | 7 | 18.6 | 16.1 | 2.5 | 0.1 | 8.1 | 129.7 |
| M.EVANS | TB | WR | 8 | 17.7 | 16 | 1.7 | 0 | 7.9 | 115.6 |
| J.WADDLE | MIA | WR | 8 | 13.2 | 16 | -2.8 | 0.1 | 8.8 | 55.3 |
| M.CARTER | NYJ | RB | 7 | 13.2 | 15.9 | -2.7 | 10.7 | 5.3 | 2.1 |
| A.BROWN | TB | WR | 5 | 19.1 | 15.9 | 3.2 | 0.2 | 8.4 | 111.4 |
| A.THIELEN | MIN | WR | 7 | 18 | 15.8 | 2.2 | 0.1 | 8.4 | 76.6 |
| C.LAMB | DAL | WR | 7 | 18 | 15.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 8.1 | 85.3 |
| J.MEYERS | NE | WR | 8 | 11.7 | 15.7 | -4 | 0 | 8.5 | 76.8 |
| M.PITTMAN | IND | WR | 8 | 16.2 | 15.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 8.1 | 89.1 |
| T.HIGGINS | CIN | WR | 6 | 12.7 | 15.6 | -2.9 | 0 | 8.2 | 87 |
| C.SUTTON | DEN | WR | 8 | 13.7 | 15.5 | -1.8 | 0 | 7.8 | 125.8 |
| J.MIXON | CIN | RB | 8 | 16.4 | 15.4 | 1 | 17.3 | 2.6 | -1.9 |
| K.HUNT | CLE | RB | 6 | 17.4 | 15.3 | 2.1 | 12.5 | 4 | -0.2 |
| C.PATTERSON | ATL | RB | 7 | 19.2 | 15.1 | 4 | 9.1 | 5.7 | 16.9 |
| A.COOPER | DAL | WR | 7 | 16.8 | 14.9 | 1.9 | 0 | 7.9 | 95.7 |
| R.WOODS | LA | WR | 8 | 15 | 14.9 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 7.4 | 63.1 |
| C.CLAYPOOL | PIT | WR | 6 | 12.7 | 14.8 | -2.2 | 0.7 | 7.8 | 92.8 |
| J.CHASE | CIN | WR | 8 | 19.9 | 14.5 | 5.4 | 0.3 | 7.5 | 98.6 |
| A.BROWN | TEN | WR | 7 | 14.9 | 14.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 7.7 | 94 |
| M.JONES | JAX | WR | 7 | 12.7 | 14.5 | -1.8 | 0 | 7.6 | 91.9 |
| J.ROBINSON | JAX | RB | 7 | 15.6 | 14.2 | 1.4 | 12.7 | 3.4 | 0.4 |
| T.HOCKENSON | DET | TE | 8 | 13.4 | 14.1 | -0.8 | 0 | 7.9 | 56.6 |
| C.BEASLEY | BUF | WR | 7 | 12.9 | 14.1 | -1.2 | 0 | 8 | 45.4 |
| M.ANDREWS | BAL | TE | 7 | 15.8 | 14 | 1.8 | 0 | 7.3 | 74.6 |
| J.JACOBS | LV | RB | 5 | 15.1 | 13.9 | 1.1 | 12.6 | 3.2 | -2 |
| J.CROWDER | NYJ | WR | 4 | 12.8 | 13.8 | -1 | 0 | 7.5 | 39.8 |
| D.MONTGOMERY | CHI | RB | 4 | 15 | 13.7 | 1.2 | 17.5 | 2.3 | 0.5 |
| C.DAVIS | NYJ | WR | 6 | 13.8 | 13.7 | 0.1 | 0 | 7 | 100.8 |
| M.DAVIS | ATL | RB | 7 | 10 | 13.6 | -3.6 | 10.9 | 4.3 | -8.3 |
| Z.MOSS | BUF | RB | 6 | 12.6 | 13.5 | -0.9 | 10.7 | 3.5 | -0.5 |
| K.PITTS | ATL | TE | 7 | 12.5 | 13.5 | -1 | 0 | 7.1 | 80.3 |
| S.BARKLEY | NYG | RB | 5 | 12.9 | 13.5 | -0.6 | 11 | 4 | 3.8 |
| C.EDMONDS | ARI | RB | 8 | 12.2 | 13.4 | -1.1 | 9.6 | 4.6 | 3.3 |
| T.LOCKETT | SEA | WR | 8 | 14.6 | 13.2 | 1.4 | 0 | 7.3 | 87.4 |
| H.RENFROW | LV | WR | 7 | 12.8 | 13.2 | -0.3 | 0 | 7.3 | 48.7 |
| C.HUBBARD | CAR | RB | 8 | 9.9 | 13.1 | -3.3 | 13.6 | 3.1 | 3.3 |
| M.GASKIN | MIA | RB | 8 | 11.7 | 13.1 | -1.5 | 8.4 | 5 | 0.5 |
| D.HARRIS | NE | RB | 8 | 12.5 | 13 | -0.6 | 15.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 |
| A.GIBSON | WAS | RB | 8 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 14.4 | 2.6 | -3.5 |
| D.METCALF | SEA | WR | 8 | 18.1 | 13 | 5.2 | 0 | 7 | 79 |
| D.SMITH | PHI | WR | 8 | 10.1 | 12.8 | -2.7 | 0 | 6.9 | 93.9 |
| N.CHUBB | CLE | RB | 6 | 15.1 | 12.8 | 2.4 | 18.2 | 1 | -0.5 |
| G.KITTLE | SF | TE | 4 | 10.7 | 12.6 | -1.9 | 0.3 | 7.3 | 49 |
| M.GESICKI | MIA | TE | 8 | 12.7 | 12.5 | 0.2 | 0 | 6.8 | 65.3 |
| E.SANDERS | BUF | WR | 7 | 12.9 | 12.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 6.1 | 111.6 |
| D.MOONEY | CHI | WR | 8 | 10.1 | 12.4 | -2.3 | 0.1 | 6.6 | 75.5 |
| D.HOPKINS | ARI | WR | 8 | 15.7 | 12.3 | 3.4 | 0 | 6.1 | 73.9 |
| N.FANT | DEN | TE | 8 | 10.9 | 12 | -1.1 | 0 | 6.6 | 39.6 |
| M.GALLUP | DAL | WR | 1 | 7.6 | 12 | -4.4 | 0 | 7 | 42 |
| M.SANDERS | PHI | RB | 7 | 9 | 11.9 | -2.9 | 9.1 | 3.4 | -7.6 |
| R.ANDERSON | CAR | WR | 8 | 6.3 | 11.9 | -5.5 | 0.1 | 6.3 | 77.4 |
| J.MCKISSIC | WAS | RB | 8 | 11.4 | 11.8 | -0.3 | 4.1 | 5.3 | 11.9 |
| S.WATKINS | BAL | WR | 5 | 9.4 | 11.8 | -2.3 | 0 | 6.4 | 85.2 |
| T.BOYD | CIN | WR | 8 | 11.3 | 11.7 | -0.4 | 0 | 6.6 | 45 |
| D.BOOKER | NYG | RB | 7 | 10.1 | 11.7 | -1.6 | 9.3 | 2.9 | -0.3 |
| J.WILLIAMS | DEN | RB | 8 | 10.1 | 11.6 | -1.5 | 10 | 3.3 | -1.5 |
| L.SHENAULT | JAX | WR | 7 | 9 | 11.5 | -2.5 | 0.6 | 6.3 | 40.6 |
| M.VALDES-SCANTLING | GB | WR | 3 | 6.5 | 11.4 | -4.9 | 0 | 5.3 | 116.3 |
| D.SCHULTZ | DAL | TE | 7 | 12.6 | 11.4 | 1.1 | 0 | 6.3 | 41.7 |
| M.GORDON | DEN | RB | 8 | 12.6 | 11.4 | 1.2 | 11.3 | 2.8 | 1.4 |
| D.CHARK | JAX | WR | 4 | 8.6 | 11.2 | -2.6 | 0 | 5.5 | 98.8 |
| J.LANDRY | CLE | WR | 4 | 10 | 11.2 | -1.2 | 0.5 | 6 | 49 |
| O.BECKHAM | CLE | WR | 6 | 6.9 | 11.1 | -4.1 | 0.3 | 5.7 | 79 |
| C.EDWARDS-HELAIRE | KC | RB | 5 | 10.5 | 10.8 | -0.3 | 13.2 | 2 | -3.6 |
| K.GOLLADAY | NYG | WR | 5 | 9 | 10.8 | -1.8 | 0 | 5.8 | 80.4 |
| E.ENGRAM | NYG | TE | 6 | 7.6 | 10.7 | -3.2 | 0.2 | 5.5 | 27.7 |
| M.HARDMAN | KC | WR | 8 | 9.4 | 10.7 | -1.3 | 0.5 | 5.9 | 40.4 |
| A.GREEN | ARI | WR | 8 | 11.6 | 10.7 | 0.9 | 0 | 5.4 | 65.9 |
| T.JOHNSON | NYJ | RB | 7 | 8.5 | 10.7 | -2.2 | 5.1 | 3.7 | 11.6 |
| D.WILLIAMS | KC | RB | 8 | 10.3 | 10.7 | -0.4 | 8.4 | 3 | -0.8 |
| R.GRONKOWSKI | TB | TE | 4 | 14.6 | 10.7 | 3.9 | 0 | 5.3 | 49.3 |
| A.MILLER | HOU | WR | 2 | 6.7 | 10.6 | -4 | 0 | 5.5 | 37 |
| P.BARBER | LV | RB | 3 | 8.8 | 10.6 | -1.8 | 12.7 | 1.7 | 6 |
| R.BATEMAN | BAL | WR | 2 | 9 | 10.6 | -1.6 | 0 | 6 | 54.5 |
| C.CARSON | SEA | RB | 4 | 12 | 10.5 | 1.5 | 13.5 | 1.5 | -3.3 |
| E.MITCHELL | SF | RB | 5 | 13.7 | 10.5 | 3.2 | 16.6 | 0.8 | -2.2 |
| J.WILLIAMS | DET | RB | 7 | 9.9 | 10.4 | -0.5 | 10.1 | 2.6 | 0.3 |
| J.WHITE | NE | RB | 3 | 10.4 | 10.4 | 0 | 3.3 | 4.7 | 17 |
| E.MOORE | NYJ | WR | 6 | 6.3 | 10.3 | -4 | 0.3 | 5.3 | 65.2 |
| A.MATTISON | MIN | RB | 7 | 8.5 | 10.3 | -1.7 | 10.4 | 2.7 | -0.1 |
| J.SMITH-SCHUSTER | PIT | WR | 5 | 7 | 10.2 | -3.3 | 0.6 | 5.6 | 36.6 |
| Z.PASCAL | IND | WR | 8 | 8.8 | 10.2 | -1.4 | 0 | 5.4 | 39.6 |
| J.JEUDY | DEN | WR | 2 | 10.6 | 10.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 5.5 | 59.5 |
| J.JONES | TEN | WR | 5 | 9.4 | 10.1 | -0.7 | 0 | 5.4 | 72.8 |
| T.PATRICK | DEN | WR | 8 | 11.3 | 10.1 | 1.2 | 0 | 5.3 | 60.8 |
| A.ROBINSON | CHI | WR | 8 | 7.4 | 10 | -2.7 | 0 | 5.5 | 62.3 |
| H.RUGGS | LV | WR | 7 | 12.1 | 10 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 5.1 | 86.9 |
| C.KIRK | ARI | WR | 8 | 13.1 | 10 | 3.1 | 0.1 | 5.3 | 67.9 |
| J.COOK | LAC | TE | 7 | 8.7 | 10 | -1.3 | 0 | 5.4 | 44 |
| D.SINGLETARY | BUF | RB | 7 | 8.3 | 9.9 | -1.7 | 9.6 | 2.7 | 0.1 |
| Z.ERTZ | ARI | TE | 8 | 9.1 | 9.8 | -0.7 | 0.1 | 5 | 41.4 |
| N.AGHOLOR | NE | WR | 8 | 8.5 | 9.8 | -1.3 | 0.1 | 5.1 | 81.4 |
| K.GAINWELL | PHI | RB | 8 | 8.5 | 9.7 | -1.2 | 5 | 3.9 | 9.1 |
| K.OSBORN | MIN | WR | 7 | 10.4 | 9.5 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 5.4 | 40.4 |
| J.CONNER | ARI | RB | 8 | 11.5 | 9.5 | 2.1 | 11.9 | 0.6 | 0.5 |
| V.JEFFERSON | LA | WR | 8 | 10.2 | 9.4 | 0.7 | 0 | 4.9 | 65.8 |
| K.RAYMOND | DET | WR | 8 | 9.1 | 9.3 | -0.2 | 0.3 | 5 | 55.6 |
| D.SLAYTON | NYG | WR | 5 | 7.4 | 9.2 | -1.8 | 0 | 5 | 68.6 |
| Q.CEPHUS | DET | WR | 5 | 9.9 | 9.2 | 0.6 | 0 | 4.6 | 51.2 |
| T.CONKLIN | MIN | TE | 7 | 9 | 9.2 | -0.2 | 0 | 5.3 | 26.1 |
| K.TONEY | NYG | WR | 7 | 9 | 9.2 | -0.2 | 0.3 | 5 | 32.6 |
| T.POLLARD | DAL | RB | 7 | 10.4 | 9.2 | 1.2 | 10.1 | 2.3 | -2.1 |
| W.FULLER | MIA | WR | 2 | 0 | 9.1 | -9.1 | 0 | 4 | 75 |
| M.CALLAWAY | NO | WR | 7 | 9.3 | 9 | 0.3 | 0 | 4.7 | 59.9 |
| K.DRAKE | LV | RB | 7 | 10.1 | 9 | 1.1 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 12.6 |
| A. ST. BROWN | DET | WR | 8 | 6.8 | 8.8 | -2 | 0 | 4.8 | 37.4 |
| D.KNOX | BUF | TE | 6 | 13.6 | 8.7 | 4.9 | 0 | 4.5 | 38.3 |
| R.MOORE | ARI | WR | 8 | 9 | 8.6 | 0.4 | 1.4 | 4.5 | 8.5 |
| H.HENRY | NE | TE | 8 | 9.8 | 8.5 | 1.4 | 0 | 4.4 | 38 |
| T.HIGBEE | LA | TE | 8 | 8.7 | 8.4 | 0.2 | 0 | 4.5 | 19.1 |
| B.EDWARDS | LV | WR | 7 | 8.4 | 8.4 | 0 | 0 | 4.3 | 64.1 |
| C.KMET | CHI | TE | 8 | 5.2 | 8.4 | -3.2 | 0.1 | 4.5 | 35.9 |
| J.HASTY | SF | RB | 4 | 7.2 | 8.4 | -1.3 | 3 | 3.5 | 10 |
| A.COLLINS | SEA | RB | 7 | 7.8 | 8.4 | -0.5 | 10.7 | 1 | 0.4 |
| D.GOEDERT | PHI | TE | 7 | 10.5 | 8.4 | 2.2 | 0 | 4.4 | 38 |
| N.HINES | IND | RB | 8 | 6.4 | 8.2 | -1.8 | 4.4 | 3.6 | 1.5 |
| K.BOURNE | NE | WR | 8 | 10.3 | 8.2 | 2.2 | 0.3 | 4.4 | 46.4 |
| K.HERBERT | CHI | RB | 8 | 6.8 | 8.2 | -1.3 | 10.3 | 1.3 | -3.9 |
| T.HILTON | IND | WR | 2 | 7.8 | 8.1 | -0.3 | 0 | 4 | 65.5 |
| J.REAGOR | PHI | WR | 8 | 6.5 | 7.9 | -1.4 | 0.5 | 4 | 41.1 |
| J.O'SHAUGHNESSY | JAX | TE | 2 | 7.1 | 7.7 | -0.6 | 0 | 4.5 | 29.5 |
| J.SMITH | NE | TE | 8 | 5.8 | 7.7 | -1.8 | 0.4 | 4 | 18.5 |
| T.WILLIAMS | BAL | RB | 5 | 8.3 | 7.6 | 0.7 | 6.8 | 2.2 | 6.6 |
| P.FREIERMUTH | PIT | TE | 7 | 7.7 | 7.4 | 0.3 | 0 | 3.9 | 22.3 |
| D.JOHNSON | HOU | RB | 8 | 6.3 | 7.4 | -1.1 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 9.5 |
| P.WILLIAMS | MIA | WR | 3 | 4.1 | 7.3 | -3.2 | 0.3 | 4 | 37.3 |
| A.DILLON | GB | RB | 8 | 6.7 | 7.2 | -0.5 | 8.6 | 1.5 | 1.9 |
| C.HYDE | JAX | RB | 6 | 4.6 | 7.2 | -2.6 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 2.3 |
| R.SEALS-JONES | WAS | TE | 8 | 6.5 | 7.1 | -0.6 | 0 | 3.8 | 19.1 |
| D.HARRIS | NO | WR | 6 | 9.4 | 7.1 | 2.3 | 0.3 | 3.8 | 45.8 |
| J.AGNEW | JAX | WR | 7 | 6.3 | 7.1 | -0.7 | 0.3 | 3.9 | 24.9 |
| R.GAGE | ATL | WR | 4 | 6.1 | 7 | -0.9 | 0 | 3.8 | 24.5 |
| L.MURRAY | BAL | RB | 6 | 8.6 | 7 | 1.6 | 10 | 0.8 | -0.5 |
| B.AIYUK | SF | WR | 7 | 5.2 | 7 | -1.9 | 0.3 | 3.3 | 30.4 |
| R.STEVENSON | NE | RB | 4 | 5.4 | 6.9 | -1.5 | 6.5 | 1.5 | 1.3 |
| N.COLLINS | HOU | WR | 5 | 5.7 | 6.9 | -1.2 | 0 | 3.8 | 38 |
| D.AMENDOLA | HOU | WR | 4 | 5.8 | 6.9 | -1 | 0 | 4 | 16.5 |
| T.MARSHALL | CAR | WR | 6 | 4.3 | 6.8 | -2.5 | 0 | 3.7 | 24.2 |
| Q.WATKINS | PHI | WR | 8 | 7.3 | 6.8 | 0.6 | 0 | 3.5 | 47.3 |
| R.TONYAN | GB | TE | 8 | 6.3 | 6.7 | -0.4 | 0 | 3.6 | 32 |
| R.COBB | GB | WR | 8 | 7.6 | 6.7 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 2.9 | 23.8 |
| L.THOMAS | WAS | TE | 4 | 8.4 | 6.7 | 1.7 | 0 | 3.5 | 26.3 |
| D.WILLIAMS | CHI | RB | 7 | 6.2 | 6.6 | -0.4 | 5.3 | 2 | -1.3 |
| A.HOOPER | CLE | TE | 8 | 5.4 | 6.6 | -1.2 | 0 | 3.5 | 14.1 |
| K.HAMLER | DEN | WR | 3 | 4.1 | 6.5 | -2.4 | 0 | 3.3 | 67 |
| J.ROSS | NYG | WR | 5 | 6.6 | 6.5 | 0.1 | 0 | 3.2 | 57.6 |
| B.BERRIOS | NYJ | WR | 7 | 6.1 | 6.4 | -0.4 | 0.3 | 3.6 | 23.4 |
| A.HUMPHRIES | WAS | WR | 8 | 5.3 | 6.4 | -1.1 | 0 | 3.6 | 27.8 |
| D.BROWN | WAS | WR | 6 | 2.7 | 6.3 | -3.6 | 0.2 | 3.3 | 46.5 |
| G.BERNARD | TB | RB | 7 | 7.7 | 6.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 3.3 | 1.7 |
| N.WESTBROOK-IKHINE | TEN | WR | 7 | 5.4 | 6.2 | -0.7 | 0 | 3 | 29.9 |
| D.ARNOLD | JAX | TE | 7 | 5 | 6.1 | -1.1 | 0 | 3.6 | 17.1 |
| C.WILSON | DAL | WR | 7 | 9.1 | 6.1 | 3 | 0.3 | 3.1 | 30.7 |
| J.MCNICHOLS | TEN | RB | 8 | 6.4 | 6 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 3.4 | 0.6 |
| C.BRATE | TB | TE | 8 | 3.2 | 6 | -2.8 | 0 | 3.1 | 26.5 |
| M.ALIE-COX | IND | TE | 8 | 6.8 | 5.9 | 0.9 | 0 | 3.1 | 36 |
| S.AHMED | MIA | RB | 8 | 3.7 | 5.9 | -2.2 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 6.1 |
| S.MICHEL | LA | RB | 8 | 4.9 | 5.8 | -0.9 | 8.1 | 0.9 | -0.1 |
| S.PERINE | CIN | RB | 7 | 6.5 | 5.4 | 1 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 2 |
| D.NJOKU | CLE | TE | 8 | 7.3 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0 | 3 | 25.3 |
| O.HOWARD | TB | TE | 8 | 3.9 | 4.4 | -0.5 | 0 | 2.4 | 14.9 |
| R.PENNY | SEA | RB | 3 | 0.8 | 4.4 | -3.6 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| M.INGRAM | NO | RB | 8 | 2.5 | 3.6 | -1.2 | 5.1 | 0.6 | -0.5 |
| D.JOHNSON | CLE | RB | 8 | 4.7 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 |
| L.ROUNTREE | LAC | RB | 6 | 1.3 | 3.5 | -2.2 | 4.8 | 0.3 | -0.2 |
| B.SCOTT | PHI | RB | 8 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 0.4 | 2.5 | 0.6 | -1 |
| D.MIMS | NYJ | WR | 5 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 21.8 |
| J.JACKSON | LAC | RB | 6 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 0.1 | 2.3 | 1.2 | -0.5 |
| R.BURKHEAD | HOU | RB | 7 | 2.4 | 2.7 | -0.3 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.3 |
WEEK 9 BUY-LOW
JAYLEN WADDLE
Dolphins receiver Jaylen Waddle has been getting plenty of love in the dynasty community due to his age and production, but I also like him as a redraft trade target in PPR. Waddle is leading all rookies with 8.8 targets per game and is currently on a 150 target pace over 17 games. His role is increasing, with 33 targets coming over his previous three games. Rookies are typically more productive and utilized more in the second half of the season, so 150 targets seem well within reach for Waddle.
In Week 8, Waddle led the team with 12 targets while running a route on 40 out of 43 pass plays. Managers were disappointed that he only brought in four catches for 29 yards, but as long as the targets keep coming like they have all season, Waddle should experience an uptick in production. He is currently the WR18 in XFP per game and can be a solid, high-volume WR2 or flex in PPR.
JAKOBI MEYERS
Like Waddle, Jakobi Meyers is seeing solid target volume, but his actual results have lagged his XFP. It has been well-documented that Meyers hasn’t scored a single touchdown in his entire NFL career. However, he is seeing plenty of opportunities to score. Meyers has six red-zone targets on the season, and two more targets inside the 25. He also had his would-be first career touchdown called back for a penalty in Week 6.
Given the solid overall volume and red-zone looks specifically, there aren’t too many players in NFL history more due for positive touchdown regression than Meyers. He sits just behind Waddle at WR23 in XFP and is another solid option to plug a hole at WR2 or flex in PPR. I’d slightly prefer Waddle mainly due to his recent target average and chance to experience the second-half rookie bump, but Meyers is likely a slightly less expensive option to acquire.
CLYDE EDWARDS-HELAIRE
This recommendation has very little to do with Clyde Edwards-Helaire himself. CEH hasn’t suited up since Week 5 when he suffered a knee injury. Before he got hurt, I suggested selling him and wrote this:
The thesis for drafting Clyde Edwards-Helaire has always centered around a presumed workhorse role in a high-powered Chiefs offense. In theory, he should be part of a potent passing attack and see plenty of scoring opportunities given the quality of the offense. However, CEH has still only averaged 2.5 targets per game over his last two games and has seen only seven targets in four games.
I was worried about the lack of targets at the time, but the Chiefs offense has changed significantly. In Weeks 1-4, quarterback Patrick Mahomes had an average depth of target (aDOT) of 8.38. In Weeks 5-8, his aDOT has fallen to 7.03. He seems much more willing to check the ball down to his running back.
As you can see in the graphic, CEH is only averaging two targets per game this season. However, since backup Darrel Williams took over in Week 6, he is averaging 4.7 targets over his three starts. Even better, teammates Jerick McKinnon and Derrick Gore have combined for an additional 3.0 targets per game over this stretch, bringing the team average to 7.7 running back targets over the past three weeks.
Defenses are running more two-high safety looks against the Chiefs, and the data shows that they are responding with shorter throws and a dramatic increase in running back targets. If these trends continue, Edwards-Helaire is in a position to return to a significantly increased target share, which would do wonders for his fantasy production. If you need a short-term option, I also like Darrel Williams.
The timeline for CEH is unclear, but he still appears likely to return in the next few weeks based on the initial timeline. If you could use a high-upside running back for the most important weeks in fantasy football, throw out an offer for him.
WEEK 9 SELL-HIGH
JAMES CONNER
Cardinals running backs James Conner and Chase Edmonds are producing similar levels of fantasy points despite a clear difference in workload. Conner only trails Edmonds by 0.7 PPG, but trails by 3.9 XFP. Conner is closing the production gap by scoring eight touchdowns versus one for Edmonds.
Given the usage, I expect Conner to continue to score the majority of the running back touchdowns, but he is still due for some regression. He is the primary red-zone back, but still only should have about 5.3 expected touchdowns even after accounting for his high share of goal-line carries.
Edmonds has about 2.6 expected touchdowns compared to the one touchdown he has scored on the season. Conner should score more touchdowns than Edmonds the rest of the season, but the expected numbers say it should be closer to a 2:1 ratio than the current 8:1 ratio.
Conner is currently averaging more carries, but that is mostly due to Week 6. Conner out-carried Edmonds 16-4 in a blowout win when Edmonds was questionable and played through a shoulder injury. Edmonds has led the team in carries each of the past two weeks. Conner is also a complete afterthought in the passing game, seeing less than one target per week.
Conner is already maxing out his efficiency and still only scoring 11.5 PPR points per week, but a recent string of touchdown production could open up a selling window to teams desperate for running back help.
ELIJAH MITCHELL
Like James Conner, Elijah Mitchell‘s role in the passing game is virtually nonexistent. In five starts, he only has four targets. He is averaging only six receiving yards per game.
When fantasy running backs don’t generate receiving production, their floor and ceiling dramatically decrease. Despite seeing at least 17 carries in four of his five starts and averaging an elite 5.3 yards per carry, Mitchell is only the RB20 in points per game. He has also played a relatively soft schedule including wins over the Lions, Eagles, and Bears. Tougher upcoming matchups where the 49ers are likely to be trailing do not bode well for his rushing volume.
His worst game of the season came against the Cardinals where he saw only nine carries in a loss. Mitchell now has to face the Cardinals and Rams in back-to-back matchups. The 49ers are likely to be underdogs in both contests, and tougher matchups do not bode well for his rushing volume.
Mitchell has put up solid numbers running the ball, but I would take advantage of his back-to-back 100-yard rushing efforts and try to turn him into a different running back who contributes more in the passing game, especially in a full-PPR format.
FINAL THOUGHTS
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