Week 4 ended up being another productive week for us in what was a tough slate to crack.
Week 4 Results from the writer's picks:
1. Levon Satamian – @GridironExperts
2. @JoeNicely – @RotoBaller
T3. @BalesSJustin – @DFSKarmaWins
T3. @theJMcGuinness "JimboSlice" @RotoStJournal
"Keepin' the Industry Honest" at https://t.co/q7E4kzuIce#draftkings #nfl #dfs pic.twitter.com/2ZtBpE7nj1— Dad Bod DFS (@DadBodDFS_com) October 6, 2021
Looking ahead to Week 5 though, it might be even harder with the number of quality teams we are losing off the main slate. Seahawks and Rams on Thursday night, Bills and Chiefs on Sunday night, and the Ravens on Monday night. I really wanted to smash Kyle Pitts this week with Calvin Ridley out, but he’s playing at 9 AM across the pond on Sunday.
Regardless, only three games in this slate project for over 50 points this week, meaning it’s time to break out that thin-toothed comb and find the money in the crumbs to put together a winning lineup.
So, let’s get started and continue to print out that money.
QUARTERBACKS
Jalen Hurts ($7,000)
- The Konami Code has been on a tear this year. With a season-low of 21.8 DK points, Jalen Hurts has been consistently among the top point scorers at his position. As he continues to utilize his legs and raise that scoring ceiling, Hurts has been shouldering an even bigger workload thanks to a disappearing act from the Eagles ground game. Hurts faces a stingy Panthers defense, although Dak Prescott just picked them apart.
Kirk Cousins ($6,500)
- Is there a better bounce-back spot than going back to your own dome and facing the Detroit Lions’ pathetic defense? Because that’s what’s in store for Kirk Cousins this week in Minnesota. Remove his dud last week against a stout Browns defense, and Cousins is averaging over 25 DK points per game. While he possesses little to no rushing upside, the stars have aligned for a huge day and Cousins looks like a lock at the QB position this week. His top two receivers currently have the No. 1 and No. 3 ranked WR/CB matchup grades for Week 5, per PFF.
Joe Burrow ($6,100)
- It took seven halves of football, but in the second half of Week 4, Joe Burrow looked like what we saw in his rookie year before it was cut short. Granted it was against the Jaguars, Burrow had complete control of the offense. This week he should get back stud receiver Tee Higgins to pair along with Tyler Boyd and Ja’Marr Chase. The Bengals also look like they will be without Joe Mixon this week, putting even more emphasis on Burrow and the passing game. Somehow playing in the second-highest projected scoring game this week, Burrow will have to duel with Aaron Rodgers and the Packers so this won’t be a game the team will coast through.
Other intriguing QB salaries: Dak Prescott $6,900 (vs Giants), Daniel Jones $6,000 (vs Cowboys), Trevor Lawrence $5,800 (vs Titans)
RUNNING BACKS
Derrick Henry ($9,000)
- If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Henry has over 30 touches in three straight games now, averaging 33.93 DK points in those contests. Facing a Jaguars defense that he has historically beaten on, there’s no reason to believe he should fall short of 20 DK points this week. AJ Brown returned to a limited practice on Wednesday which could help the flow of the offense (if he plays), although Julio still hasn’t returned to practice with his hamstring injury. His usage in the passing game this year is a good sign, and luckily the Titans shouldn’t be finding themselves playing catchup once again this week.
Najee Harris ($6,900)
- So far this year Najee Harris has basically become the poster child of the term “workhorse running back”. Currently playing a whopping 92.6% of his team’s offensive snaps, Harris is making the most of his opportunities and surrounding situations. To be frank, the Steelers’ offensive line is shit, so his rushing numbers are mediocre at best. Luckily, he’s the lead goal-line back and has been heavily involved in the passing game with 25 targets over his last three games. With Pittsburgh currently sitting at 1-3, this home game against the Broncos looks like a prime positive regression contest to get the Steelers back into the win column. Teddy Bridgewater’s potential absence would limit the Broncos’ offense.
Leonard Fournette ($5,200)
- Last week, Uncle Lenny played a season-high of 82% of the Bucs offensive snaps against the Patriots in a tough grind-it-out game. New England basically dared Tampa Bay to run the ball and limit Tom Brady as much as they could. What awaits for Fournette and the Bucs this week is a very bad Miami Dolphins run defense. In their four games this year, Miami has allowed 125, 143, 140, and 139 rushing yards. While I don’t see Jacoby Brissett being able to keep up with Tampa Bay’s offense and consistently put up points, this sets up a fantastic game script for Fournette as huge home favorites.
Other intriguing RB salaries: Austin Ekeler $7,600 (vs Browns), Ezekiel Elliott $7,000 (vs Giants), James Robinson $6,000 (vs Titans), Kareem Hunt $5,800 (vs Chargers), Damien Williams $5,600 (vs Raiders), Damien Harris $5,500 (vs Texans), Kenneth Gainwell $4,900 (vs Panthers)
WIDE RECEIVERS
Justin Jefferson ($7,700)
- If you look at PFF’s WR/CB matchup matrix, you would find Justin Jefferson at the top with a 99.9% matchup advantage over the Lions’ secondary. A nearly perfect score, Jefferson sets up so well this week to take full advantage of the scenario presented in front of him. This has all the makings of a 10-plus catch, 100-plus yard game with multiple scores. There is some risk that Adam Thielen ends up being the receiver with multiple scores and stealing some spotlight, but there’s a healthy chance for both receivers to have big days in Week 5.
CeeDee Lamb ($6,200)
- After a hot start in Week 1, CeeDee Lamb has cooled down considerably catching only five balls over the last two games for Dallas. With Amari Cooper dealing with a lingering hamstring issue, there’s potential for Lamb to play a much bigger role in the offense this week. Plus, how long can you expect Dalton Schultz to lead this offense in receiving. Water has to find its level, and it’s pretty overdue here for Lamb in a home divisional game.
Laviska Shenault Jr ($4,800)
- We got a glimpse of what extended work for Laviska Shenault would look like in the Jaguars’ offense once DJ Chark went down on the first drive of last week’s game. Chark’s broken ankle will keep him out for a considerable amount of time, meaning Shenault will be a starting WR for a team throwing a lot as they are often chasing points on the scoreboard. Shenault is absolutely electric with the ball and can be a YAC machine. Shenault has had a very low aDOT, often catching 1 to 2-yard throws and making the most of it from there. Now that his role is expected to increase and the plays start coming downfield more for him, Laviska can be in line for a very productive outing, especially against this Titans secondary.
Other intriguing WR salaries: Terry McLaurin $7,400 (vs Saints), Adam Thielen $6,600 (vs Lions), Diontae Johnson $6,500 (vs Broncos), Marvin Jones $5,700 (vs Titans), Jakobi Meyers $5,600 (vs Texans), DeVante Parker $5,400 (vs Buccaneers), Tyler Boyd $5,300 (vs Packers) Antonio Brown $5,200 (vs Dolphins), Darnell Mooney $4,700 (vs Raiders), Deonte Harris $4,100 (vs Washington), Kadarius Toney $4,000 (vs Cowboys)
TIGHT ENDS
George Kittle ($5,600)
- The narrative of a rookie QB getting his first start going against the lone remaining unbeaten team in the NFL normally wouldn’t find me recommending someone from that team. George Kittle is a big-time exception though as he’s seen a spike in his target numbers over the last few weeks. This 49ers passing game has essentially been Deebo Samuel and Kittle now, which is what rookie Trey Lance will rely upon in this game. Kittle has yet to have a breakout game this year and still hasn’t scored a touchdown, making him a spectacular positive regression play.
Dalton Schultz ($4,400)
- Remove a Week 2 dud from Dalton Schultz’s game log and he’s had over six targets and catches in every game while recently having a nose for the end zone. Schultz has proven his red-zone ability to Dak Prescott, building a serious connection with his signal-caller. He also happens to have the No. 1 ranked TE matchup this week per PFF against the Giants. This divisional matchup projects to be the highest-scoring game on the slate, meaning there’s plenty of opportunities to go around in Dallas. Schultz has led the Cowboys pass-catchers in targets in each of the last two games.
Other intriguing TE salaries: Maxx Williams $3,400 (vs 49ers), Dan Arnold $2,900 (vs Titans)
DST
New England Patriots ($4,900)
- The Patriots’ defense was able to hold Tom Brady and the Bucs to a season-low 19 points last week. This week they get rookie Davis Mills and the putrid Texans offense that should have Belichick salivating. He already abused Zach Wilson in Week 2 and I feel bad for what Mills is about to go through in Houston in Week 5.
Minnesota Vikings ($3,000)
- Last week was a very low-scoring affair between the Browns and Vikings and the latter held Cleveland to 14 points despite the loss. Detroit represents everything you want in a bounce-back game, as the Lions turn it over frequently and lack star players on offense.
Houston Texans ($2,300)
- How often do you see two defenses from the same game in here? Probably not often, but the Texans could make a lot of sense this week. The Patriots’ offense hasn’t been particularly good this year, most notably stemming from their horrendous offensive line play. Rookie Mac Jones has only scored over 20 points once this season and the team has uncharacteristically given up a handful of sacks and turnovers to the opposing defense. A struggling offense going on the road for a near-stone minimum defense? You could do a lot worse.
Other intriguing DST salaries: Los Angeles Chargers $2,700 (vs Browns)
Do you have any early leans? Questions about which guy you should go with this week? Want to yell at me for missing an obvious play? Sound off below or hit me up on Twitter where you can follow for daily news or advice on players.
