This trade value chart probably looks different than other charts you’re used to seeing. Most other analysts take their rest of the season rankings, apply arbitrary numbers to each player based on rank order, and call it a day.
METHODOLOGY
I used a value-based drafting Excel tool to create the initial values for this chart. The tool uses the FantasyPros consensus projections to assign values based on a 12-team, full PPR league.
At the beginning of the season, I can calculate trade values via the same method I used to determine auction prices. The values in the chart don’t perfectly correlate to auction prices. I have made slight changes based on the FantasyPros ECR, results from Week 1, and to a lesser extent, The Wolf’s Rest of Season Rankings, and my expected fantasy points analysis. But for the most part, the below values should closely reflect consensus projections.
Even if you play in a snake draft league, using auction values as an initial baseline yields more accurate trade values during the season. Jeff Henderson’s Fantasy WAR is a fantastic metric that can also be helpful to keep in mind when negotiating trades.
The sims never lie. CMC was worth $102 in auction drafts in 2019. Of course, had anyone paid this price, there was literally no value in doing so…. but that is (technically speaking) pretty insane balls.
— Jeffro (@Statholesports) August 10, 2021
Top-60 ranked fantasy football players in 2020 from my @FantasyPts article.
— Jeffro (@Statholesports) May 19, 2021
Who's rank surprises you the most? pic.twitter.com/OuMkISoYAv
Always keep the insane value of the top players in the back of your mind when negotiating trades. Most other charts will only have a small spread between the top players, but value-based drafting shows that Christian McCaffrey is in a tier of his own. FantasyPros projects McCaffrey to finish so much higher than everyone else that he’s worth more than Saquon Barkley and Ezekiel Elliott combined.
Generally, trading for players with the potential to finish among the top of the league in Fantasy WAR is the best strategy to improve your roster, even if it might feel like an overpay. The chart reflects that. You probably won’t be able to swing a trade for McCaffrey, but always keep upside in mind.
For more information on how to make successful deals, check out my strategies for negotiating trades.
In future weeks, I will break down the top risers and fallers in trade value. This week’s major disconnects from the initial Excel tool numbers and the FantasyPros Rest of Season Rankings are mostly injury-related, and I have a few quick notes on those at the bottom. Have fun making trades!
NFL WEEK 2 FANTASY FOOTBALL TRADE VALUE CHART
| PLAYER | POS | Team | 1QB | 2QB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | RB | CAR | 87 | 87 |
| Alvin Kamara | RB | NO | 66 | 66 |
| Dalvin Cook | RB | MIN | 65 | 65 |
| Davante Adams | WR | GB | 60 | 60 |
| Travis Kelce | TE | KC | 58 | 58 |
| Tyreek Hill | WR | KC | 55 | 55 |
| Stefon Diggs | WR | BUF | 50 | 50 |
| Derrick Henry | RB | TEN | 47 | 47 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | WR | ARI | 47 | 47 |
| Calvin Ridley | WR | ATL | 46 | 46 |
| Darren Waller | TE | LV | 45 | 45 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | RB | DAL | 44 | 44 |
| Aaron Jones | RB | GB | 41 | 41 |
| Joe Mixon | RB | CIN | 40 | 40 |
| Austin Ekeler | RB | LAC | 39 | 39 |
| Keenan Allen | WR | LAC | 39 | 39 |
| Saquon Barkley | RB | NYG | 39 | 39 |
| Jonathan Taylor | RB | IND | 38 | 38 |
| Najee Harris | RB | PIT | 37 | 37 |
| D.K. Metcalf | WR | SEA | 37 | 37 |
| Justin Jefferson | WR | MIN | 37 | 37 |
| A.J. Brown | WR | TEN | 36 | 36 |
| Amari Cooper | WR | DAL | 36 | 36 |
| George Kittle | TE | SF | 35 | 35 |
| Antonio Gibson | RB | WAS | 35 | 35 |
| Nick Chubb | RB | CLE | 35 | 35 |
| CeeDee Lamb | WR | DAL | 33 | 33 |
| D'Andre Swift | RB | DET | 33 | 33 |
| Allen Robinson II | WR | CHI | 32 | 32 |
| Chris Godwin | WR | TB | 32 | 32 |
| David Montgomery | RB | CHI | 32 | 32 |
| Chris Carson | RB | SEA | 32 | 32 |
| Terry McLaurin | WR | WAS | 31 | 31 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | RB | KC | 31 | 31 |
| Patrick Mahomes II | QB | KC | 30 | 59 |
| Cooper Kupp | WR | LAR | 30 | 30 |
| Tyler Lockett | WR | SEA | 30 | 30 |
| Robert Woods | WR | LAR | 28 | 28 |
| Miles Sanders | RB | PHI | 28 | 28 |
| Adam Thielen | WR | MIN | 27 | 27 |
| D.J. Moore | WR | CAR | 26 | 26 |
| Kyler Murray | QB | ARI | 25 | 53 |
| Tee Higgins | WR | CIN | 25 | 25 |
| Diontae Johnson | WR | PIT | 25 | 25 |
| Mark Andrews | TE | BAL | 24 | 24 |
| Darrell Henderson | RB | LAR | 24 | 24 |
| Josh Allen | QB | BUF | 24 | 52 |
| T.J. Hockenson | TE | DET | 24 | 24 |
| Julio Jones | WR | TEN | 22 | 22 |
| Lamar Jackson | QB | BAL | 21 | 49 |
| Josh Jacobs | RB | LV | 21 | 21 |
| Mike Evans | WR | TB | 20 | 20 |
| Chase Claypool | WR | PIT | 19 | 19 |
| Mike Davis | RB | ATL | 19 | 19 |
| Courtland Sutton | WR | DEN | 18 | 18 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | WR | CIN | 18 | 18 |
| Dak Prescott | QB | DAL | 17 | 46 |
| James Robinson | RB | JAX | 17 | 17 |
| Damien Harris | RB | NE | 17 | 17 |
| Antonio Brown | WR | TB | 16 | 16 |
| Corey Davis | WR | NYJ | 16 | 16 |
| Deebo Samuel | WR | SF | 16 | 16 |
| Kyle Pitts | TE | ATL | 15 | 15 |
| Myles Gaskin | RB | MIA | 15 | 15 |
| Russell Wilson | QB | SEA | 13 | 42 |
| Robby Anderson | WR | CAR | 13 | 13 |
| Chase Edmonds | RB | ARI | 13 | 13 |
| Javonte Williams | RB | DEN | 13 | 13 |
| Ty'Son Williams | RB | BAL | 13 | 13 |
| DeVonta Smith | WR | PHI | 12 | 12 |
| Tom Brady | QB | TB | 11 | 38 |
| Aaron Rodgers | QB | GB | 11 | 38 |
| Brandin Cooks | WR | HOU | 11 | 11 |
| Logan Thomas | TE | WAS | 11 | 11 |
| Noah Fant | TE | DEN | 11 | 11 |
| Tyler Higbee | TE | LAR | 11 | 11 |
| Kareem Hunt | RB | CLE | 10 | 10 |
| Rob Gronkowski | TE | TB | 10 | 10 |
| Justin Herbert | QB | LAC | 9 | 38 |
| Leonard Fournette | RB | TB | 9 | 9 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | WR | CLE | 9 | 9 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | WR | SF | 9 | 9 |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | WR | JAX | 9 | 9 |
| Tyler Boyd | WR | CIN | 9 | 9 |
| Jakobi Meyers | WR | NE | 9 | 9 |
| Will Fuller V | WR | MIA | 9 | 9 |
| Elijah Mitchell | RB | SF | 9 | 9 |
| Jarvis Landry | WR | CLE | 9 | 9 |
| Jalen Hurts | QB | PHI | 8 | 35 |
| Robert Tonyan | TE | GB | 8 | 8 |
| Kenny Golladay | WR | NYG | 8 | 10 |
| Michael Thomas | WR | NO | 8 | 8 |
| Mike Williams | WR | LAC | 8 | 8 |
| Melvin Gordon III | RB | DEN | 8 | 8 |
| D.J. Chark Jr. | WR | JAX | 7 | 7 |
| Marvin Jones Jr. | WR | JAX | 7 | 7 |
| Sterling Shepard | WR | NYG | 6 | 6 |
| Marquez Callaway | WR | NO | 6 | 6 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | WR | PIT | 6 | 6 |
| Jerry Jeudy | WR | DEN | 6 | 6 |
| DeVante Parker | WR | MIA | 6 | 6 |
| Michael Pittman Jr. | WR | IND | 6 | 6 |
| Marquise Brown | WR | BAL | 6 | 6 |
| Ryan Tannehill | QB | TEN | 5 | 30 |
| Matthew Stafford | QB | LAR | 5 | 30 |
| Trey Sermon | RB | SF | 4 | 4 |
| James White | RB | NE | 4 | 4 |
| Ronald Jones II | RB | TB | 4 | 4 |
| Jamaal Williams | RB | DET | 4 | 4 |
| Mark Ingram | RB | HOU | 4 | 4 |
| Dallas Goedert | TE | PHI | 4 | 4 |
| Devin Singletary | RB | BUF | 4 | 4 |
| J.D. McKissic | RB | WAS | 4 | 4 |
| Nyheim Hines | RB | IND | 4 | 4 |
| Joe Burrow | QB | CIN | 3 | 25 |
| Justin Fields | QB | CHI | 3 | 11 |
| Trey Lance | QB | SF | 3 | 10 |
| Elijah Moore | WR | NYJ | 3 | 3 |
| Jaylen Waddle | WR | MIA | 3 | 3 |
| Russell Gage | WR | ATL | 3 | 3 |
| Henry Ruggs III | WR | LV | 3 | 3 |
| Latavius Murray | RB | BAL | 3 | 3 |
| Trevor Lawrence | QB | JAX | 3 | 21 |
| James Conner | RB | ARI | 3 | 3 |
| Darnell Mooney | WR | CHI | 2 | 2 |
| Kenyan Drake | RB | ARI | 2 | 2 |
| AJ Dillon | RB | GB | 2 | 2 |
| Tony Pollard | RB | DAL | 2 | 2 |
| Jonnu Smith | TE | NE | 2 | 2 |
| Alexander Mattison | RB | MIN | 2 | 2 |
| Kenneth Gainwell | RB | PHI | 2 | 2 |
| Tony Jones Jr. | RB | NO | 2 | 2 |
| Christian Kirk | WR | ARI | 2 | 2 |
| Sony Michel | RB | LAR | 2 | 2 |
| Cole Beasley | WR | BUF | 2 | 2 |
| Kirk Cousins | QB | MIN | 1 | 18 |
| Jameis Winston | QB | NO | 1 | 17 |
| Matt Ryan | QB | ATL | 1 | 15 |
| Derek Carr | QB | LV | 1 | 15 |
| Baker Mayfield | QB | CLE | 1 | 15 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | QB | MIA | 1 | 13 |
| Carson Wentz | QB | IND | 1 | 13 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | QB | PIT | 1 | 12 |
| Sam Darnold | QB | CAR | 1 | 9 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | QB | DEN | 1 | 9 |
| Zach Wilson | QB | NYJ | 1 | 9 |
| Mac Jones | QB | NE | 1 | 9 |
| Jared Goff | QB | DET | 1 | 8 |
| Daniel Jones | QB | NYG | 1 | 6 |
| Tyrod Taylor | QB | HOU | 1 | 5 |
| Taylor Heinicke | QB | WAS | 1 | 5 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | QB | SF | 1 | 3 |
| Mike Gesicki | TE | MIA | 1 | 1 |
| Michael Gallup | WR | DAL | 1 | 1 |
| Mecole Hardman | WR | KC | 1 | 1 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | WR | BUF | 1 | 1 |
| Nelson Agholor | WR | NE | 1 | 1 |
| Tyrell Williams | WR | DET | 1 | 1 |
| Raheem Mostert | RB | SF | 1 | 1 |
| Zack Moss | RB | BUF | 1 | 1 |
| Tevin Coleman | RB | NYJ | 1 | 1 |
| Michael Carter | RB | NYJ | 1 | 1 |
| Darrel Williams | RB | KC | 1 | 1 |
| Rashaad Penny | RB | SEA | 1 | 1 |
| Hunter Henry | TE | NE | 1 | 1 |
| Evan Engram | TE | NYG | 1 | 1 |
| Gerald Everett | TE | SEA | 1 | 1 |
| Deshaun Watson | QB | HOU | 1 | 1 |
| Taysom Hill | QB | NO | 1 | 1 |
| Andy Dalton | QB | CHI | 1 | 1 |
| Damien Williams | RB | CHI | 1 | 1 |
| Ty Johnson | RB | NYJ | 1 | 1 |
| Phillip Lindsay | RB | HOU | 1 | 1 |
| Raheem Mostert | RB | SF | 1 | 1 |
| Terrace Marshall Jr. | WR | CAR | 1 | 1 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | QB | WAS | 1 | 1 |
WEEK 1 INJURY NOTES
- Raheem Mostert from the 49ers is reported to be out for 8 weeks, or possibly longer with a knee injury. Elijah Mitchell will be a top waiver add this week and sees an increase in value.
- Jerry Jeudy suffered a high-ankle sprain. Jesse Morse, MD says to sell Jeudy now if possible, and Courtland Sutton and Noah Fant get bumped up as the projected top options for Teddy Bridgewater.
- Ryan Fitzpatrick could potentially be out for the season, so backup Taylor Heinicke should be rostered in all Superflex leagues.
- Antonio Gibson suffered a shoulder injury. He will still likely play on Thursday, but he will have an increased risk for re-injury. I downgraded him slightly in the chart.
RUNNING BACK SNAP COUNTS
Several running backs saw encouraging snap count numbers in Week 1 including the below players. Depending on your price range, any of them could be good targets for running back help.
- Joe Mixon – 54/69 snaps (78%)
- Najee Harris – 58/58 snaps (100%)
- De’Andre Swift – 63/92 snaps (68%)
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire – 47/65 snaps (72%)
- Chris Carson – 42/54 snaps (78%)
- Darrell Henderson – 49/52 snaps (94%)
- Mike Davis – 53/71 snaps (75%)
- Devin Singletary – 64/85 snaps (75%) — Zack Moss was a healthy scratch
Top 12 RB oppo share week 1 (PPR Points)
— David Willsey (@willson8tor) September 14, 2021
Harris 100% (5.9) 👀
Henderson 94.4% (15.7)
CEH 94.4% (10.2)
CMC 93.7% (27.7)
Gibson 89.3% (11.8)
Mixon 84.6% (25.0)
Cook 84.4% (20.4)
Mitchell 82.6% (16.4)
Carson 82.6% (12.7)
Singletary 80.0% (11.0)
Henry 75.0% (10.7)
Davis 70.0% (10.2)
Check back next Tuesday for updated player values and a breakdown of risers and fallers. Reach out on Twitter @RSJ_Jackson with any questions!
