Sure, Lamar Jackson (barely) finished inside the top-10 fantasy QBs last season. Nonetheless, his 22.79 FPPG disappointed, considering his Top-24 overall price.
Fortunately, Jackson’s 2021 stars could be aligning. The addition of rookie WR Rashod Bateman could take this already-potent Ravens offense, and Jackson’s 2021 fantasy outlook, to new heights.
Considering Jackson’s 2019 was the highest-scoring QB fantasy season of all time, that we may not have seen his “final form” yet is truly terrifying.
A Reminder of Lamar Jackson’s Ceiling
Based on the Jackson slander this offseason, many fantasy owners need a reminder of the dual-threat’s limitless ceiling.
The ultimate Konami Code, Jackson set the NFL’s single-season QB rushing yards record (1,206) in 2019, while becoming the only QB to ever throw for 3,000+ yards and rush for 1,000+ in the same season. The fantasy stats were unsurprisingly glorious. In fact, Jackson posted the most fantasy points ever (421+, 27+ FPPG), stealing the crown from Patrick Mahomes, who had just set the record the year prior.
Jackson recorded nine games over 30 FPs and only once fell below 20 FPs, ultimately finishing as a weekly Top-12 QB in all but two contests, and Top-Five in over half.
Simply put: Jackson won you multiple weeks by himself, and never cost you one.
Indeed, 2020 was comparatively underwhelming. Jackson still finished with the most rushing yards at the position (1,005) but regressed hard in passing efficiency, where his TDs fell from an NFL-high 36 to just 26, and his yardage dropped by nearly 400. Consequently, Jackson scored above 30 FPs just three times, while also displaying a much lower floor, falling under 20 FPs four separate times.
Still, Jackson entered the league incredibly raw. Even still, he’s led the NFL’s 1st and 9th-best scoring offenses as a starter, recorded the best QB fantasy season ever, and still could be ascending as a passer.
Yet Jackson’s price has dropped to the fourth or fifth round, despite his outlook being rosier than ever.
How Rashod Bateman Helps Lamar Jackson & the Ravens Offense
Indeed, Jackson won’t ever draw comps to Brady or Manning as a passer. Still, he’s always had a live arm, and we should expect a major step forward in 2021.
Chiefly because of Rashod Bateman.
Bateman is the exact type of WR the Ravens needed. A smooth, physical, route-running technician with strong hands, Bateman profiles as the perfect go-to, chain-moving Alpha that Jackson has never played with in the NFL. In fact, no college WR had more receptions (46) on 10+ yard throws than Bateman did as a sophomore, despite competition from Ja’Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, and Jerry Jeudy. Though not massive at 6’0 and 190 lbs, Bateman plays far bigger than his frame, proving reliable in traffic, jump balls, and going over the top of defenses downfield.
Given these traits, Bateman’s often compared to Stefon Diggs and Keenan Allen. We just saw how this profile of WR can single-handedly elevate an entire offense, especially the QB leading the charge: Josh Allen, a similarly raw passer, just gained almost 1500 yards and 17 TDs following Diggs’ arrival.
Though they drip in deep speed, the Ravens and Jackson haven’t had this type of go-to security blanket. We’ve seen OC Greg Roman‘s run-obsessed offenses grown even more difficult to defend with the presence of an Anquan Boldin and/or Michael Crabtree. Sure, Bateman is just a prospect, but he could easily bring this type of element to the Ravens.
For what it’s worth, Bateman’s already flashing Alpha upside in early OTAs:
“It was another strong day for Bateman who probably caught more passes than any other Raven. Bateman did have one drop and walked away from the play shaking his hand. Otherwise, he made a bunch of plays in the middle of the field and also was a popular target in the red zone.”
OC Greg Roman acknowledged the unique skillset Bateman will bring to the table:
“The thing that hits my brain is ‘Right place, right time’ when I think about Rashod Bateman here with the Ravens. Because I think he brings a style that is really going to complement the guys who are here right now…Definitely some things that people are going to see from us that they haven’t seen before,”
Meanwhile, Bateman could shift top coverage to afford weaker competition for Marquise Brown. For all his inconsistency, Brown has flashed elite deep speed. In a more naturally-fitting complementary role, Brown could easily experience career bests in 2021.
Plus, the Ravens also added Sammy Watkins. Yes, release your moans, groans, and eye rolls. Still, Watkins put up his career-best years under Roman when both were together in Buffalo. Watkins has been reportedly dazzling deep and in the intermediate range throughout early OTAs. For however long he’s healthy, Watkins will serve no worse than the No.3 WR — a stark upgrade to the non-existent Myles Boykin or Devin Duvernay. Should he falter, fourth-round rookie WR Tylan Wallace was considered among the better value picks at the position by many draft gurus.
All-in-all, Bateman’s arrival among the other lesser talent injections to bolster Hollywood Brown, Mark Andrews, and an improved JK Dobbins should give Jackson his top pass-catching cast by a mile.
More Passing Volume & Verticality to Ravens Offense?
Yes, Greg Roman has ranked bottom-two in pass attempts in every single season he’s called plays except once… in which he ranked 29th.
No, the Ravens aren’t going to become an Aerial Bonanza any time soon. Still, more timely and effective deep passing could unlock a whole new level of offense. One way to accomplish this: play-action.
Increased play-action should be a no-brainer for the most lethal rush attack in NFL history. Still, after underutilizing it the past two seasons, Roman said play-action is at the forefront of his offseason renovations.
“Yes, I definitely would like to see that. I think that we’ll have a lot of favorable looks, and we have to be ready to take advantage of them. … Our goal is to win, and if teams are giving us opportunities to throw the ball deep, it’s upon us to work hard and figure that out and really take advantage of that. Those are game-changing plays.”
No team utilized fewer under-center formations than the Ravens, which Roman also expects to change this year. By getting Lamar to the line, Roman expects to open up far more favorable play-action looks and chunk plays.
Given how deadly this offense already could be when rolling, greater play-action usage – in volume and quality – could unlock a further level.
Some analysts question if a better passing game would lower Jackson’s fantasy upside since it theoretically detracts from the rushing points that make him so invaluable. Considering Jackson’s rushing production has remained largely unchanged (10.8 rushing FPPG vs. 9.5), I think these will hold steady. Even if his attempts drop slightly, I think the quality increases with a less-stacked box and more scoring chances.
Where he needs improvement is passing; Jackson dropped dramatically from 17.1 FPPG to 13.1 last year, but should benefit greatly from the improved weapons and schematics.
Summary: Lamar Jackson’s 2021 Fantasy Outlook
Since entering the league as a raw prospect, Lamar has averaged 24.2 fantasy points per start (2nd-most), while setting the record for most FPPG ever (27.7) in 2019. To think there’s another level to his game should terrify NFL defenses… and the fantasy owners who pass him up.
Although it may seem foolish to overvalue a single-player’s addition, Rashod Bateman could easily provide the Alpha WR1 to unlock Baltimore’s and Lamar’s next step. This type of security blanket will not only absorb targets, but also defensive attention, allowing dangerous complements like Marquise Brown, Mark Andrews, and Sammy Watkins to feast on even weaker competition. Should Roman finally commit to more play-action like he’s suggested, and the Ravens and Jackson could hit a level yet unseen.
Best of all? Jackson’s now priced 2-3 rounds cheaper than last year. He currently falls over two rounds further than Mahomes but matches his ceiling. Although he usually waits on QB, The Wolf labeled Jackson among the offseason’s biggest winners and has Jackson +10 ECR on his 2021 Fantasy Football Big Board.
