Every fantasy owner is looking for their own little miracle. That doubted, slept-on guy they can get as a last round “Penny Stock” or off the waiver wire for nothing. Yet, the less glorified, but often most important way to build a fantasy championship-winner is the art of Buying Low and Selling High.
See, fantasy football is truly a stock market (hence, the name Roto Street Journal). Just like in Wall Street, the Wolves of Roto Street know exactly when to buy the right players at their lowest cost, and sell others while they’re peaking. The right trade, at the right time is often the overlooked difference between hoisting the trophy at season’s end… or watching through tears as one of your league mates does so instead.
To help you navigate the tricky fantasy trade waters, I’ll be giving you some discounted slow-starters to consider Buying Low on before they turn it around. Players who may not be lighting up the scoreboards yet, but offer future improvements in their schedule, opportunity, or team performance that owners blinded with rage may miss, all for you to steal.
On the other hand, I’ll give you the players whose values are peaking, and that you should Sell High before their true worth reveals itself. Maybe they’ve been benefited from a few cupcakes in a row. Perhaps an absent teammate is soon returning, or the schedule is about to stiffen. Regardless, selling a player at his highest value is a crucial move to boost your team’s long-term outlook.
To get our Stock Watches, Weekly Rankings and Podcast episodes directly on your iPhone, download our brand-new app in the App Store.
Buy Low
Odell Beckham, Jr.
(Week 8: 10.2 PPR points)
Perhaps I jumped the gun throwing Odell Beckham, Jr. in this section 4 weeks ago. I acknowledged at the time that his upcoming schedule wasn’t super, but still had faith that OBJ could turn around his season after a pretty slow start. He’s averaged about 10 PPR points per game since then, and his price is still relatively low compared to where his value was at entering 2019. My additional faith in Beckham comes less from his upcoming schedule in terms of fantasy metrics and more in terms of the real-life situation the Cleveland Browns find themselves in. At 2-5, the Browns have to win at least 6 or 7 of their final 9 games to have a playoff chance. They have to turn it on now to salvage their season, and when your back’s against the wall, you rely on your stars.
Odell’s had some tough matchups of late but his volume has remained steady. He’s averaging almost 9 targets per game this year, about 1 more than teammate Jarvis Landry, and even though a bizarre footwear gesture after Sunday’s game in New England may have bothered his quarterback, don’t expect Baker Mayfield to stop throwing to OBJ anytime soon. The Browns offense is in a figure it out or pack it up situation entering a virtual must-win in Denver, and I expect them to rely on Beckham for direction this week and throughout the rest of the season.
Jameis Winston
(Week 8: 19.3 PPR points)
First off, shoutout to our own CJay for getting this one on my radar earlier. He mentioned he likes Jameis Winston as a second half pickup and after looking at his remaining schedule, I agree.
That’s 5 of 9 top-10 matchups and even the others aren’t terrible either. Winston has been at times comically bad this season, throwing 14 TDs to a league-leading 12 INTs, but he has 700 yards combined over his last 2 games. Factor in the favorable matchups he has coming up and his current value and Winston could be a sneaky huge acquisition for your stretch run. You may be able to just grab him off waivers (23% available), but if not, sacrificing some bench depth to add Jameis may be well worth it.
Let’s not forget the second half he rattled off last year: Over 1,800 yards, 13 TDs to just 4 INTs, and a 100.1 passer rating.
DJ Moore
(Week 8: 8.8 PPR points)
DJ Moore has put together a pretty solid season but struggled along with the rest of Carolina’s offense in last week’s loss to SF. His 8.8 point showing was his 2nd-worst performance of the season and it’s now been 4 weeks since he’s found the end zone. Kyle Allen has been great for Carolina so far and while some may see his recent dud as a sign of regression, it can easily be chalked up to facing one of the best defenses in football. And whether Cam Newton returns soon or not, Moore and the Panthers should have a relatively high level of production from the QB position moving forward.
Moore’s remaining schedule is very promising, with matchups against Atlanta (twice), New Orleans (twice), and Washington standing out as possible breakout opportunities. There’s still a few more weeks until his ideal matchups begin, and in the meantime he’s stuck facing the Titans and Packers, but being fresh off one of his quietest performances of the season makes him very attainable for a reasonable price right now.
Honorable mention: James White, Sammy Watkins, David Montgomery
Sell High
Chris Carson
(Week 8: 15 PPR points)
After a 4-point stinker in Week 3, Chris Carson is averaging over 17 PPR points per game over his last 5. Much of the doubt about Carson comes from the potential for Rashaad Penny to poach touches, and after logging just 14 touches over the last 5 weeks, Penny had 18 in Week 8 while Carson’s total dropped by 22 from the previous week. It’s becoming hard to predict how their carries will be split in Seattle’s offense, but Penny isn’t going to disappear at any point, so Carson’s ceiling is always capped to some extent.
Seattle’s 2nd half schedule also poses some concerns about production.
With a bye week still lurking and some bad matchups ahead, it may be time to package Carson with a bench guy and go for a big offer for a workhorse.
Amari Cooper
(Week 8: 15.6 PPR points)
This may be a tough one to stomach, as Amari Cooper has been a WR1 throughout the first half of the season and those smart enough to draft him have enjoyed some massive breakout games — most notably a 39.6 point explosion a few weeks back. However, a quick schedule check shows that Cooper has definitely had a bit of matchup luck, with games against the Giants, Redskins, Dolphins, Saints, Jets, and Eagles already in 2019. Week 9 brings him the Giants again, which are a great matchup, but as fantasy trade deadlines approach, you may have to pull the trigger on him a bit before the “perfect” time.
Cooper carries some potential over the next 3 weeks against the Giants, Vikings, and Lions, but after that his schedule get very scary very fast. Four straight games consisting of @ New England, vs. Buffalo, vs. Chicago, and @ the Rams could have Cooper disappearing right when you need him most. This makes now a great time to shop him while he still has some juicy matchups remaining and can still net you a return that makes the move worth it.
Marlon Mack
(Week 8: 16 PPR points)
The Colts have had a surprisingly efficient offensive attack in 2019 and Marlon Mack has done a lot to make that happen. He’s fantasy’s RB20 at the midway point of the season, most recently coming off a performance of 90 scrimmage yards and a TD against Denver. The volume has been there as he’s averaged close to 20 carries per game in 2019, but the numbers show that the most important factor in Mack’s success may be his opponent. Based on defensive ranking, his best 3 matchups of 2019 have been @ Chargers, vs. Falcons, and @ Chiefs. These have also been Mack’s top 3 performances, and he’s averaged 20 points per game in these contests vs. just 9.2 points per game in the other 4 “less favorable” matchups. Clearly the defense Mack goes up against is crucial in determining his success, and his schedule gets very difficult from here on out.
7 of Mack’s final 9 matchups come against teams in the top half of the league in slowing opposing RBs, which means his 2nd half production will likely be closer to the 9.2 average above than the 20. He does still have a few very favorable matchups remaining, and those you can use as material to convince another owner that he needs Mack for his stretch run. Meanwhile, you flip him for as many assets as you can get.
Honorable mention: Nick Chubb, Terry McLaurin, Stefon Diggs
