I love Phillip Lindsay. He runs with amazing patience and acceleration, and I still feel he is the ideal fit for new OC Rich Scangarello’s “Shanahan Zone Blocking Scheme.”
Even still, Lindsay’s 2019 role and fantasy stock are both far shakier than during his 1,278 total yards, 10 TDs breakout.
First, backfield mate Royce Freeman has been bathed in praised, “to the point that they are hoping to finally establish the true split-touch situation that they envisioned” in 2018. In fact, Scangarello compared the duo to Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman from his Falcons days, with Lindsay playing the Coleman role. This suggests Lindsay’s early-down and especially GL work could be reduced.
As if that weren’t enough, the Broncos added receiving dynamo Theo Riddick to the mix. With his TDs and receptions now less guaranteed, Lindsay could be trapped in “Between-the-20s” purgatory.
Indeed, Freeman has yet to prove he truly warrants a greater role. Last season, Freeman averaged just 3.81 YPC on zone runs, whereas Lindsay thrived at over 5.5 YPC. Still, Freeman’s a powerful back with experience with zone-running at Oregon. At worst, a greater role in the Red Zone would seriously hurt Lindsay’s TD upside.
Meanwhile, Riddick has been a high-volume pass-catcher in Detroit. Lindsay showed well in the receiving game, but Riddick is likely to lock down the third-down role. Flacco has ranked Top-10 in RB targets in 10/11 seasons, so there’s sneaky PPR upside. Unfortunately, Lindsay isn’t in line for the lion’s share of this any longer.
Ultimately, Lindsay is still explosive and talented enough to perform well even with a volume hit. In 2018, he only played 48% of snaps and received 53% of last year’s total volume, and still thrived. He’s going to still rip off some monstrous chunk gains in this perfect scheme. But his Top-10 RB ceiling is now much more capped with more congestion. He falls to my RB24 and -15 spots to 50 overall. Meanwhile, Freeman rises 24 spots and becomes a target “Penny Stock” RB beyond Round 9.
