Every season, Week 1 performances produce shocking fantasy box scores. This is where emotions can cloud some dynasty managers’ judgment, creating perfect trade-market windows to buy low or sell high as social media goes rampant. Remember, dynasty is a value game first.
Most dynasty leagues are SuperFlex, so this article assumes that format. With that in mind, here are four players I’d target in dynasty buy-low and sell-high opportunities to strengthen your squad.
Week 2 Dynasty Buy-Low, Sell-High
Sell-High on David Montgomery (HOU)
David Montgomery just went off for the Texans and fantasy managers with a nice box score of 60 rushing yards on 20 attempts for 2 touchdowns. Montgomery also caught all three of his targets for 19 yards and a touchdown. These numbers produced a 28.9-point fantasy performance and have some managers salivating at what could be coming for the rest of the season. However, Montgomery is a massive sell-high candidate for me!
Here’s the problem: Montgomery wasn’t efficient. Of those 28.9 fantasy points, 18 of them came from his touchdowns, which we know is a volatile stat. Digging deeper, there’s reason to be concerned if Montgomery’s not scoring multiple touchdowns every week. An aging, inefficient running back is going to heavily rely on touchdown equity to produce for your fantasy team. Without it, they become highly volatile flex options that become matchup-dependent if they can’t create on their own.
For comparison, here’s the data on what we should expect from an average starting running back in the NFL for efficiency metrics:
- Yards After Contact per Attempt (YCO/A): 2.6-2.9
- Missed Tackles Forced Rate (MTF%): 12-19%
- Rushing Yards Over Expected (RYOE): 0
- Yards per Route Run (YPRR): 1.0-1.2
- Target Share: 8-10%
Pushing past the fantasy box score, Montgomery’s Week 1 performance had some glaring issues, as his rushing efficiency is the main concern. YCO/A was just 1.95, his MTF% was 13%, his RYOE was -8, and just 3 yards per carry. A negative RYOE means Montgomery is actively leaving yards on the field that his offensive line was actually providing him.
This was against a Bills defense that ranked 31st in Rush EPA last year and was only slightly better this week. Montgomery is still a 29-year-old running back who is on a team with arguably the worst offensive line of his entire career. Montgomery doesn’t command many targets out of the backfield, and betting on repeating multiple touchdown performances is a fool’s errand.
As of today, here are actual trades that happened in leagues according to Dynasty Daddy’s trade database:
- David Montgomery for a 2029 first-round pick
- David Montgomery for Blake Corum, a 2028 second-round pick and a 2029 second-round pick
- David Montgomery and Isaiah Likely for Jordyn Tyson and Omar Cooper Jr.
- David Montgomery for Brian Thomas Jr.
There were multiple examples where managers were trading Montgomery for a 2027 second-round pick, which is a fair value offer, but as you can see, plenty of people were able to use this past week to get much more, even if some of the picks are multiple years away.
Overall, David Montgomery is a glaring sell-high candidate before his numbers come crashing back down to earth.
Sell-High on Bryce Young (CAR)
Bryce Young is my next dynasty sell-high after his monster Week 1 fantasy performance. He took complete advantage of a decimated Chicago Bears secondary this week, even though the Bears ended up with the win. A great lesson to learn for your weekly matchups in the future: start quarterbacks and wide receivers against Chicago. The 2026 season should be a career-defining year for Young, as he needs to succeed to get the contract extension he’s looking for.
The Panthers only took on his fifth-year option, but opted to take a wait-and-see approach for a real franchise quarterback extension. If he doesn’t show improvement over what he’s displayed so far in his career for the franchise, they may consider alternative options for the future of their organization.
Even including his big game this past week, Young has only had an average of 184.1 yards per game. That’s below mediocre and, frankly, not acceptable for a true franchise quarterback. Yesterday, he looked like a completely different quarterback, but we’ve seen this story before. Each year, he has a couple of boom weeks that make you think he could actually be something, only to be disappointed for most of the season.
His adjusted completion percentage (ADJ%), which removes drops and throwaways, finished at 77.4%, which means he was dialed in instead of relying on blown coverages. He also had a 2:1 Big Time Throw to Turnover-Worthy Play ratio, and that’s what you objectively want to see. However, there are now over 1,400 career passing attempts to compare to that Week 1 performance, where the Panthers were required to pass just to keep up offensively. Even in the best-case outcome, he’s never going to be a 35-plus touchdown passing threat and offers next to nothing on the ground.
The dynasty market is reacting right now, as these are some of the trades you can find on the Dynasty Daddy trade database:
- Bryce Young and D’Andre Swift for Omarion Hampton
- Bryce Young for Marvin Harrison Jr.
- Bryce Young for a 2027 first-round pick
I found the first-round pick one to be shocking, but there were multiple trades where this occurred. Savvy leagues will find this kind of trade highly unlikely. Trading Young for picks outside of a first probably isn’t the best course of action. Can we get Sam Darnold or Ty Simpson and a plus? These quarterbacks are more insulated assets who don’t run the same risk of losing value like Young does if/when he crashes back down to Earth. Can we do a cross-positional trade like the Marvin Harrison Jr. trade?
Many dynasty managers are down on players like him who haven’t lived up to expectations, but the talent is there. Bryce Young is a mandatory sell-high candidate while these points are still fresh in everyone’s mind.
Buy-Low on Brian Thomas Jr. (JAX)
Brian Thomas Jr. is a player who fell from grace after his rookie-year dominance. Last year, he was a player who fell into the category of being “double-punished”. This is when a player gets hurt, so we dock his dynasty value, and then he tries to come back and play through the injury and falls short of expectations, so we dock him again. This is a classic dynasty mistake that managers make and we can exploit as a buy-low target.
You don’t typically see wide receivers put up a rookie year as he did, with the draft capital he earned as well, and then just fade away completely. He’s most likely somewhere in between, and somewhere near a top-20 dynasty wide receiver. We know that Trevor Lawrence, in Liam Coen’s system, can support two fantasy-friendly receiving options.
In Week 1, Brian Thomas Jr.’s usage was encouraging, even with Parker Washington assuming the WR1 role. He tied for second in terms of targets, but digging deeper, there’s important context to be discussed. All three targets were caught for 40 yards in the first quarter before sustaining a shoulder injury and leaving the game. His 14.7 average depth of target (aDOT) and his 2.86 YPRR with that small amount of targets in limited action should be encouraging if he can stay healthy this year. This means he was separating well, and he’s earning high-value downfield looks instead of relying on spammed dump-offs.
The market is souring again on Brian Thomas Jr. as everyone is distracted by the Washington usage. This is illustrated in the Dynasty Daddy trade database, where we have trades like these going down in real leagues:
- Brian Thomas Jr. and a 2028 fourth-round pick for D’Andre Swift and a 2027 third-round pick
- Brian Thomas Jr. for RJ Harvey and a 2027 third-round pick
- Brian Thomas Jr. for David Montgomery
- Brian Thomas Jr. for Christian Watson
None of these trades are particularly close for me, but deals like these are littered in the trade database. Realistically, he’s still worth at least a late 2027 first-round pick. However, the market is showing that many managers aren’t willing to be patient. Try to take advantage of panicked sellers on a very good talent and mark Brian Thomas Jr. as a nice buy-low target.
Buy-Low on Drake London (ATL)
The Atlanta quarterback situation is a dumpster fire right now. Tua Tagovailoa’s body seems to be giving up on him after all of the years of abuse it’s taken. Michael Penix Jr. still isn’t ready to come back and start yet after tearing his ACL late last year. So the organization was forced to start Cooper Rush at quarterback for Week 1.
In one of my recent Week 1 Start/Sit articles, both Drake London and Kyle Pitts were sits this week. That turned out to be the right call, as Cooper Rush looked inept at running an offense efficiently. Expect that to continue until Michael Penix is ready to reclaim the QB1 role again. This means more contending managers are going to get increasingly frustrated, and the panic will escalate further.
Managers who already own London, do not panic-sell. He’s a hold regardless of contention status. Instead, as a contender, find a way to get a cheap year-long rental option, like Mike Evans, to fill in the void until Penix comes back. Rebuilders should be capitalizing on how panicked the market is. It’s exactly the type of move you can make to elevate a dynasty roster over time. This is still a borderline elite talent at the wide receiver position; he’s just stuck in the mud until help arrives.
Other managers are letting their emotions get the best of them, as they are getting out on London after this disappointing Week 1 performance. The Dynasty Daddy trade database showcases this with trades like these happening:
- Drake London for Jalen Coker and a 2027 second-round pick
- Drake London for Tee Higgins and a 2027 second-round pick
- Drake London for Chris Olave and a 2027 third-round pick
- Drake London for a single 2027 first-round pick
Out of all the trade examples listed above, I can rationalize why someone may think the Chris Olave one isn’t that bad. However, we’d be ignoring that Jordyn Tyson hasn’t been on the field yet. Whatever your opinion is of him with his injury history, he’s still a very talented wide receiver when healthy. He’s going to command targets, especially with the draft capital the Saints invested in him. London is a true alpha wide receiver, while I still have Olave in the tier below him.
The 2027 first-round pick trade only makes sense if it’s a top-three pick; otherwise, it’s just not enough for me to consider moving off of London. At the end of the day, we need to remain patient with young, alpha wide receivers, as they have the career runway to allow us to wait for the situations to get better. Running back is the position where we really can’t wait too long because their average shelf life is much shorter. He’s a confident buy-low option for me if possible in your leagues.
These Week 1 market overreactions won’t last long! The most active managers in their league’s trade market typically make the best trades. Take advantage of these prime dynasty buy-low, sell-high candidates before other leaguemates do!
If you’re interested in more of my content, you can find me on X/Twitter @TylerSutphenFF. My DMs are always open if you want help improving your dynasty teams and winning your leagues!
