Fantasy Football Stock Watch (2018)

Per usual, Lamar Miller fully underwhelmed on Sunday, posting a bleh 15 carries for a meh 49 yards despite the juicy spot versus the awful Colts. He wasn’t targeted a single time in the passing game, as new-addition Penny Stock WR Keke Coutee was peppered 15 times in the short-to-intermediate layer. Additionally concerning for his volume, Miller only narrowly outcarried creature Alfred Blue 15-12. As the cherry atop this pile of shit, Miller is reportedly “a little banged up,” and could be questionable for Sunday Night’s contest versus the Cowboys. Puke. Miller ranks 7th in the NFL in carries (58), inside an offense that’s netted the 6th most total yards… and has ridden this prime volume to a meager RB34 performance thus far. Moreover, Miller ranks 5th in Red Zone carries, yet has scored exactly 0 TDs. We knew he himself sucked… but we figured he could at least sustain some value considering the explosiveness around him. He was the RB8 in this same set-up last year, afterall. Yet, Miller’s already playing hampered, and struggling to find any space behind a league-worst offensive line. Even with Deshaun Watson rounding into form, Miller’s own lack of talent is proving to be too much to overcome. Thus, with declining rushing AND receiving work, a growing list of injuries, and continued ineffectiveness, Miller is trending towards benchable, despite one of the higher volume floors at the position. If anything, take a peak at D’Onta Foreman (5% owned), who’ll come off the PUP in just 2 weeks, and could immediately emerge as the starter.

Will Fuller just can’t stay on the field, and it’s opened things up for rookie KeKe Coutee, who led the Texans in targets against the Colts with a whopping 15. Coutee, a fourth round rookie from Texas Tech, stepped up in both Bruce Ellington’s (placed on IR) and Fuller’s absence with 11 receptions and 109 yards on those 15 targets. Fuller, who has been dealing with a hamstring injury since training camp, could be brought back slowly, which will make Coutee a hot waiver wire option this week. What’s even more wild about Coutee’s incredible debut is that he set a modern NFL record for most receptions in a debut. Yep, his name will be in the NFL record books. Coming from Kliff Kingsbury’s Air Raid system, the former Red Raider is no stranger to a high target total. Couttee totaled 1,429 yards and 10 touchdowns on 93 receptions during his final year in Lubbock, and can really do it all. He can take the top off of the defense using his 4.43 speed and can quickly separate out of the slot — which was why he was compared to John Brown from NFL.com’s Lance Zierlein. Target this guy on your waiver wire, because he has a legit chance to be peppered by Deshaun Watson, and will face limited defensive coverage with DeAndre Hopkins by his side.

James White caught 8-of-10 targets for 68 yards and a touchdown in the Patriots’ Week 4 win over the Dolphins, adding eight carries for 44 yards and an additional score. The carries, rushing yards and receptions were all new season highs. With Rex Burkhead (neck) on injured reserve, White’s fantasy production will be more bankable. He is a legitimate FLEX option in every format of fantasy. Before this week’s game against the Dolphins, quarterback Tom Brady said the team needed to feature James White more within the offense. They did just that and boy did he deliver. A Patriots team that’s lacking weapons needed someone to step up and White did so in dramatic fashion. He had a great day on the ground including a long touchdown run featuring a great cut back that broke a Dolphins players ankles. He was also the target hog for Brady on a receiving core depleted of usual talent. The trust Brady has in White is undeniable and a huge factor in why he’s been so involved thus far. The return of Julian Edelman is going to take away some targets from White, but he’s far ahead of the likes of Patterson, Dorsett, Gordon and even Hogan for Brady’s trust and target share. As mentioned earlier, the loss of Burkhead really threw White into a larger role for the team. The Patriots showed that they want to use Michel as their ground and pound back, feeding him a ton of carries. White comes in to change the pace, and for RB receiving work. Michel had no catches in yesterdays game, so he’s rather one dimensional at the moment. And as far as game flow goes, White will always be a big part of the offense in close or trailing games, so don’t think he’ll be stuck on the sidelines for long periods of time.

Just as Andrew Luck actually looked like an NFL quarterback again, his No. 1 target will be placed on the shelf for at least a week. T.Y. Hilton was forced to leave Week 4’s contest against the Texans due to a hamstring injury and Frank Reich has unsurprisingly already declared Hilton out for Thursday night’s game against the Patriots. Luck ended up shredding the Texans’ porous secondary and had another chance to build on his progress, but he’ll be without his most productive receiver — making Nyheim Hines a legit blow-up candidate. Hilton and Luck have always had great chemistry, and the two were just shaking off the rust (114 yds on 4 catches) before Hilton exited the game. Luck had targeted his No. 1 wideout 10-plus times in each of the first three games, but will have to spread the ball out on Thursday night. Ryan Grant and two creatures named Chester Rodgers and Zach Pacsal will “anchor” the receiving corps, while Eric Ebron and Nyheim Hines will also factor in heavily as pass-catchers. Hines is coming off of a 9-63-2 game against the Texans where he was targeted 11 times — and is only owned in 15 percent of leagues. If you’re looking for a potential blow-up Flex option this week, Luck will likely be checking down to Hines early and often against the slow Patriots’ linebackers.

Tyler Boyd hauled in 11-of-15 targets for 100 yards in the Bengals’ Week 4 win over the Falcons. An established factor in Cincinnati’s offense at this point, Boyd was one of Andy Dalton’s favorite target all game, but he was spectacular on the game-winning touchdown drive, converting a third down and two fourth downs. He now has two 100-yard games in a row after zero in his first 28. With Dalton playing great and Tyler Eifert out for the year, Boyd should return at worst WR3 value the rest of the way. For those of you lucky enough to scoop up Tyler Boyd, you’ll be getting a reliable fantasy receiver for the rest of your season. Dalton and the Bengals offense desperately needed a WR2 to step up alongside AJ Green in Offensive Coordinator Bill Lazor’s offense. Boyd has been that guy with 36 targets for a 26-349-2 stat line. He’s already bested his 2017 numbers in just four games, and has completely earned Dalton’s trust in tight situations. Averaging 31.5 points per game, Cincinnati has turned their offensive production around under Lazor, and Boyd is quickly moving up the pecking order in the offense. While Green has been the big play guy, Boyd has shown to be that consistent weapon over the middle, and on short to medium routes with higher volume.

Following a dominant and play-making preseason from Kenyan Drake, he’s been rendered useless so far during the regular season. Unable to shake Frank Gore’s corpse, the former ‘Bama back was firmly in Adam Gase’s dog house, registering only four touches in what should have been a blow-up spot against the Patriots defense. Gase told us repeatedly in the preseason that the speedy running back would be used in multiple ways, and would “bust out,” but he has taken a complete 180 when it comes to Drake’s usage. Out of all of the preseason “coach speak” this might be the most egregious of all.  Last week we highlighted Drake as a “stock down,” but also a potential buy-low candidate. He was about to face a defense that looked slow as molasses through the first three weeks and one that he carved up last season. What makes matters worse is that the Dolphins were behind on the scoreboard the entire afternoon, which should have given Drake the chance to rack up some garbage time receptions and maybe a score at the end of the game — which went to Gore instead. It’s not like Gore really did much, as the Dolphins only ran a high school-esque 49 plays, but it’s just mind blowing that Drake has entered Jay Ajayi territory under Gase — which is frightening. There must be something going on behind the scenes or in the locker room. Although we told you to buy-low on Drake last week, it might be a good idea to just stay away at this point.

We’re only four weeks into the 2018 season, but it looks like the brittle Leonard Fournette is an early candidate for a 2018 Roto for ‘Bust of the Year.’ After missing two games with a hamstring injury (surprise, surprise), Fournette’s hamstring flared up on him again during Week 4’s game against the Jets. Adam Schefter announced on Twitter when he said: “Jaguars’ HC Doug Marrone said he doesn’t know how much time Leonard Fournette will miss with his latest hamstring injury. Was two full games before, and it figures to be at least that this time.” With TJ Yeldon (50% owned) highlighting our “Stash” portion of our weekly waiver wire piece, he should have already been handcuffed — if not, he could still be out there. We wrote in the preseason that he slimmed down to better condition his body for a three-down workhorse role, and in the preseason, he actually looked primed to dominate. Through about 1.5 total games, Fournette has given his livid fantasy owners just a lowly 13.00 .5 PPR points and two likely losses. We were originally off of the former LSU star, calling him “one of the biggest risks in fantasy football,” before being fooled by his body transformation. As of right now, the best case scenario would be for Marrone to put him on the shelf for a couple of weeks to get healthy and 100-percent for the fantasy stretch run — if you’re not already out of contention with your first round pick giving you nothing.

After missing Week 1 and turning in 2 duds against Jacksonville and Detroit, Sony Michel finally looked like a 1st-round pick against the Dolphins. After 24 carries combined in 2 weeks he totaled 25 on Sunday, racking up 112 yards and his first NFL touchdown. Michel got off to a hot start, running for 36 yards on his first 4 carries, so the Patriots rode the hot hand, mixing in James White but leaning heavily on Michel in the running game. With Rex Burkhead now on IR alongside Jeremy Hill and White remaining primarily a pass-catching back, Michel is carving out a lucrative role on an offense that looks to be righting the ship at the quarter mark of the season. Michel missed a great deal of time in training camp and the preseason recovering from a knee injury, so Sunday was likely the first time he felt fully comfortable in the Patriots offense. It’s clearly not a simple system – ask Chad Ochocinco – but Week 4 was wildly optimistic for the outlook of the remainder of Michel’s rookie year. James White agreed with this sentiment after Sunday’s win over the Dolphins, saying, “Sony is a good football player. I’m excited to see him go out there and prove it. He didn’t get to play in the preseason, so I think the more he gets out there the better and better he will get and the more confidence he will play with.” If Michel’s production and role in New England’s offense remains anywhere near this level, he’s at worst a mid-level RB2 for the remainder of the season. He’s still yet to establish any role catching passes out of the backfield with just 2 catches on the year, so his PPR potential is limited, but as the primary runner in a strong offense that’ll only get stronger with Josh Gordon‘s growth and Julian Edelman‘s return, he’s a great option moving forward.

On a day where his team exploded for 48 Points and 438 yards, Bears RB Jordan Howard racked up… a pathetic 25 yards. Despite a seemingly perfect game flow with a huge lead to bleed, Howard tallied just 11 touches, as compared to 20 for backfield mate Tarik Cohen. Even worse, Cohen severely outplayed Howard, racking up an impressive 174 total yards and 1 score on his looks. The whole offense clearly benefitted from Cohen’s versatility and receiving ability, which has Howard’s future usage in question moving forward.  This was about as dreadful as can be for Howard. He’s been little more than a plodder in recent action, failing to top 2.5 YPC for three straight weeks. This included a cream-puff matchup versus Arizona’s league-worst run defense that just surrendered 124 total yards and 2 scores to freakin’ Mike Davis. Perhaps Matt Nagy has seen enough, as Howard’s usage dropped dramatically in favor of Cohen, who only justified his role expanding with a dominant performance. Unless you find an eager buyer, Howard would be a recommended hold because this has to be rock-bottom, and you’d be selling damn low. Hell, I might toss out a few bids in case his owner is panicking with the Bears on Bye.  Still, his value is extremely shaky moving forward, and he’s set for a serious fall down the Season Long Big Board this week.

Packers RB Aaron Jones had a stellar second outing, racking up 82 total yards and a score on just 12 touches. More importantly, his score came at the stripe, where many expected Jones to lose carries to the bigger Jamaal Williams. Meanwhile, Williams The Plodder (droppable in leagues) took his 11 carries for a paltry 27 yards versus the Bills. On just 17 carries, Jones has racked up 107 yards (6.3 YPC) and 1 TD while forcing 8 missed tackles, while Williams has turned 47 carries into just 162 yards (3.4 YPC), scored 0 TDs, and forced exactly 0 missed tackles. Needless to say, anyone with eyeballs can see Jones adds a whole other dimension to this offense, and should see his volume increase moving forward.Jones has so severely outplayed his backfield mates that the Packers have to be considering racketing up his workload. He did lead the team with 29 snaps, but Williams drew the start and wasn’t far behind with 28. Meanwhile, Ty Montgomery continued to monopolize third-down looks and logged 20 snaps himself. The explosive back’s endless ceiling feels capped until Mike McCarthy wakes up and hands the reins over. Granted, McCarthy did hint at this workhorse possibility over the summer, saying: “We’re going to go running back by committee…But if one of them would emerge as that full-time guy then you have to have that ability to … adjust to that.” Jones has also caught the ever-important eye of No.12, as Aaron Rodgers praised the back and different element he brings: “When you bring (Jones) back on the field, you kind of forget when he’s out the kind of dynamic abilities he can bring to a game with his running style,” said Rodgers. “He’s a different type of runner than we’ve had here. “He’s very similar to Ryan Grant, I think, who we had for years with his slashing style. He’s probably a little more elusive in the open field than Ryan was and maybe slightly greater top-end speed. We’ve got to find ways to get him the ball.” Meanwhile, OC Joe Philbin recently praised Jones’ “explosiveness” and ability to “make things happen on his own.” With his QB and play-caller in his corner, Jones’ volume could spike. Even in a timeshare, he drips in weekly upside. But in a featured role? Jones would be an RB1. He’ll shoot up the Season Long Big Board, both for his immediate usability and long-term upside.

Roto Street Journal favorite Tarik Cohen finally earned some love in Week 4 while the Bears throttled the Buccaneers 48-10. More importantly, this offensive explosion “coincidentally” came the first game Cohen out-touched presumed workhorse back Jordan Howard, 20 to 11. The explosive sophomore rode the volume increase to insane stats: 174 total yards and 1 score. Cohen averaged just over 4 yards a carry on 13 rushes (compared to Howard’s abysmal 2.5), but his real value was in the receiving game—he led the team with 8 targets, 7 receptions, and 121 yards, plus a 9-yard receiving TD. With the potential to take over the lion’s share of work after the Bears’ Bye, Cohen’s arrow is shooting straight up. Clearly one of the most explosive players in the NFL, it had been a bit of a mystery as to why Cohen has not been receiving more opportunities in the Bears’ offense. He was relentlessly hyped all summer as a “movable chess piece” that was busy learning every single position, yet never exceeded 8 touches prior to Sunday’s explosion. Now that he has gotten the chance to shine (and has done just that), it seems highly likely that Cohen will emerge as a more consistent contributor for Chicago. Yes, this outpour came against a historically bad Buccaneers’ pass-defense. But Mitch Trubisky finally pumped the ball deep and Matt Nagy‘s complex, but explosive scheme finally appears to be settling in. If you were thinking about dropping Cohen leading into Week 4, pump the brakes—this guy could still end up being the steal of the draft for some savvy, patient owners. He will skyrocket up The Wolf’s latest Rest of Season Big Board.

Golden Tate is off to a scorching hot in 2018, hauling in 28 passes and 3 TDs through 4 games. Sunday’s loss to Dallas was his best game yet, catching 8 passes for 132 yards and 2 TDs, good for 33.2 PPR points. Shockingly, this was Tate’s first 100-yard multi-TD game, but it’s appearing that it certainly won’t be his last. Tate has finally seemed to surpass Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones, Jr. as Matthew Stafford’s lucrative favorite option, garnering 44 targets through 4 games compared to Golladay’s 32 and Jones’ 29.  Tate is not only getting tons of chances to make plays, but the Lions clearly trust him to make big plays in big situations. Driving down the field trailing late in the 4th, Tate was targeted numerous times, including a big 35-yard gain and the eventual drive-ending 38-yard score with 2:17 remaining. Through 4 weeks he’s 6th among WR in YAC and has already forced 8 missed tackles, using his elusiveness and strength to elude would-be tacklers and pickup huge chunks of yardage seemingly every drive. On top of boasting some of the best touchdown celebrations we’ve seen this year, Tate is on pace for a career year in terms of yardage and touchdowns. He’ll be an unrestricted free agent and seemed less than thrilled that Detroit made the decision not to extend his deal in the offseason, so if you currently own this stud, keep riding that contract year bubble.

Leading to Sunday versus the Eagles, Titans WR Corey Davis had steadily lead the team in targets each week, but the production failed to match the volume. This all changed on Sunday, with Davis hauling in 9-of-15 targets for a whopping 161 yards and a game-winning TD. Unsurprisingly huge: Marcus Mariota looked back to health for the first time this season, chucking for 344 yards and 2 TDs on 43 attempts (while adding 46 and a TD on the ground). Plus, new OC Matt LaFleur’s downfield, screen-heavy attack finally appeared to finally click after three stagnant weeks. With a perfect blend of “Individual Talent,” “Usage,” and now “Surrounding Talent” and “Coaching Scheme” all meshing, Davis drips in genuine WR1 Upside from here on out. Yes, Davis feasted on struggling Eagles CB Jalen Mills (had allowed 75% catch rate, 2 TDs, and 147.7 passer rating before getting dismantled by Davis). Still, this performance was absolutely massive for Davis’ ROS outlook. On the year, Davis leads the league with a 33% target share, and this feels fully sustainable: Matt LaFleur hails from the Kyle Shanahan tree of peppering “Alpha Target Hog” X-Receivers, while the removal of both Delanie Walker (injury) and Rishard Matthews (released) opened up massive target voids. With this volume coming in a creative attack and with an ascending Mariota, Davis could truly explode for Top-10 numbers here on out. He should be considered no less than a High-Upside No.2 option, and will be among the largest risers on this week’s Rest of Season Big Board.

Taywan Taylor (WR – TEN, 3% owned)

Taylor has already been a featured “Penny Stock” after his 4 catch, 95 yard, 2 TD eruption in Preseason Week 2. With Rishard Matthews walking away from the Titans this week, Taylor may finally see the usage to truly erupt. He’s logged just 34% of snaps thus far, but could see this number skyrocket, affording the explosive weapon more chances to flash his game-changing ability. In our Matt LaFleur breakdown, we raved about Taylor’s limitless ceiling in the new OC’s screen-heavy, vertical-based attack. This was flashed on his 18-yard catch-and-run TD where he made numerous men miss on his way to the end zone. Indeed, Taylor’s at the mercy of Marcus Mariota‘s injured arm. This could ultimately play into his favor, with LaFleur dialing up the shorter catch-and-run opportunities in which Taylor thrives. Taylor was extremely explosive in college, with a game very similar to Robert Woods who thrived under LaFleur last season. He has stuttering quicks and is dangerous on the short routes out of the slot, yet can plant-and-go vertically as well. Now, more than ever, LaFleur could undoubtedly capitalize on this versatility, as Taylor thrived on bubble screens, jet sweeps, and designed short YAC plays — all staples in this creative attack. Moving forward, Taylor could provide a handful of week-winning swings, with season-changing upside if he can carve out a meaningful weekly target share — perfectly plausible with the Tennessee Target Totem Pole more wide-open than ever before