It’s the most wonderful time of the year! With the analysts tweaking and autodrafters tweeting that this is their year!
Okay, so the leaves have hardly even started to fade, and it’s only halfway through September, but we had a glorious, full slate of NFL football on Sunday. That’s reason to celebrate.
Some celebrations may be short-lived. I, myself, got schlacked in three of my four leagues.
My fantasy rival beat me by nearly 100 fantasy points, thanks Drake Maye and Jaylen Waddle for giving me jack squat. As for you, D’Andre Swift. I thought we had something special!
But this is no time to tilt. Fantasy wolves dig in their heels, put on their thinking caps, and power through the fog of fantasy takes.
Kyler Murray looked lost in the huddle, even before a particularly brutal shoulder pad to the face knocked him out of the game.
Maye looked like it was still February, and the Seahawks’ pass rush was obliterating him left, right, and center.
My teammates are heckling me after their petulant teams overperformed in Week 1, but what is it that I smell?
Blood in the water…
Take the fury from Week 1 and channel it. Make it your focus and dive into the data to find which players are bound to erupt and which are expected to go dormant.
Which players should you try to target? Which should you try to capitalize on for profit and to strengthen your team in the long run?
Through a combination of opportunity-based expected fantasy points (xFP), usage, and market analysis, we hope to guide when and why players should be bought and sold to maximize value while helping with roster construction.
But remember, the spreadsheets are dark and full of terror.
Let’s go!
WEEK 2 BUY-LOW SELL-HIGH TRADE TARGETS
WEEK 2 BUY-LOW TRADE TARGETS
JEREMIYAH LOVE, RB, ARIZONA CARDINALS
Tyler Allgeier commanded most of the running back opportunities in Week 1, even though Love found paydirt.
Love carried the ball 11 times for 41 yards and a touchdown, along with catching a pair of passes for 9 yards. Solid numbers. A role worth a respectable 14.4 xFP.
Allgeier getting 17 carries and a pair of targets is a little unsettling.
Diving a little deeper into the numbers should ease those concerns.
Next Gen Stats showed 29.4% of Allgeier’s carries came against stacked boxes, while Love avoided stacked boxes completely.
Allgeier’s role was worth only 11.8 xFP. Despite receiving 19 opportunities to Love’s 15, Love and Allgeier each received three red zone carries and one red zone target.
Despite Allgeier receiving 57% of the snaps, while Love was only on the field for 44%, Love’s role and production proved more valuable.
In total, Love doubled Allgeier’s targets and flashed a lot of the juice and creation ability that made analysts so hot-and-bothered in the offseason.
Love spent most of the preseason nursing a sprained ankle after the Cardinals foolishly rode him like a workhorse in the regular season.
After the game, head coach Matt LaFleur said he was pleased with Love’s usage in his debut.
“I thought Jeremiyah Love had the perfect number of reps, and we will see where week two goes,” LaFleur said.
He added it was a fair amount given Love went several weeks without practicing.
Sounds like the Cardinals were trying to ease Love in. After all, they didn’t draft him with a top 3 pick just to split the backfield with Allgeier.
BLAKE CORUM, RB, LOS ANGELES RAMS
Give me a moment as I fan myself. Corum looked FANTASTIC, despite most of the Rams’ offense looking like a jet-lagged mess. Perhaps a Red Bull might have helped?
All jokes aside, Corum was explosive, averaging 5.4 yards per carry, while Kyren Williams looked… fine.
While Corum was on the field, he was the focal point of the Rams offense. The numbers bear it out.
Corum was on the field for 14 snaps and ran the ball 10 times (4.9 xFP) on those snaps. His lack of involvement in the passing game is the biggest red flag.
The Rams trailed the majority of the game, which likely inflated Williams’ snap share. Corum was only on the field for around 11.5% of the routes vs. Williams’ 81%.
It would be a major shock if the Rams often found themselves trailing like that, suggesting Corum’s snap totals should only increase.
His efficiency as a runner should win the day. In Week 1, Corum forced a missed tackle on 20% of his rushes and averaged 4.2 yards before contact per attempt, while Williams only forced a missed tackle on 9% and managed only 2.7 YBC.
MATTHEW GOLDEN, WR, GREEN BAY PACKERS
This one may not wind up being an everyday starter, but there was plenty of juice on the football field, and with or without Josh Jacobs, it looks like the Packers might open the offense up more in the passing game.
All eyes were glued to Christian Watson and deservedly so. Watson played a terrific game.
But what crept under the radar was Golden led the team in weighted opportunity rating on the heels of 8 targets, including 3 in the red zone.
He led the team in routes run and air yards while also leading the Packers with:
- 30% Target Share
- 29.2% Air Yards Share
- 0.65 Weighted Opportunity Rating
- +0.76 Expected Points Added
Shoutout to Marvin Eliquin, the data savant, for the stats.
More importantly, he appears to have a clear role on the team and has the trust of quarterback Jordan Love.
I know it’s just a one-week sample size, but Golden’s role against the Vikings was worth 17.8 xFP. Only Amon-Ra St. Brown had more valuable usage than Golden.
*checks game log* Golden only scored 4.8 fantasy points in 0.5 PPR formats. That’s nearly -13 FPOE.
Either Golden will be phased out, or the fantasy points and touchdowns will come. You make the call.
Other buy lows: Terry McLaurin (WAS), Quinshon Judkins (CLE)
WEEK 2 SELL-HIGH TRADE TARGETS
JALEN COKER, WR, CAROLINA PANTHERS
Have a day Coker!
In that holy cow what is happening shootout with the Bears on Sunday, Coker caught 8 of his 9 targets and exploded for 138 yards and a pair of touchdowns.
His 29.8 0.5 PPR points eared him the top spot on the week. Raise your hand if you saw that coming?!
The premise here is to sell him on lofty expectations and not because he is not in for a good year.
Nobody trusts Bryce Young, but he and Coker seem to have a special connection. This Panthers WR room might be more dangerous than we thought.
In their last seven games together, Coker has outscored McMillan in six of them. If you zoom the microscope in a smidge more, you can see that in the last two, it isn’t even close.
Over their last two games:
- Jalen Coker: 9 rec (12 tgts), 131 yds, 1 TD (28.4 FPs, WR2) 8 rec (9 tgts), 138 yds, 2 TDs (33.8 FPs, WR1)
- Tet McMillan: 5 rec (8 tgts), 75 yds (10.5 FPs) 5 rec (7 tgts), 81 yds (13.1 FPs)
There’s a solid data train that suggests Coker is here to stay.
Sell him to upgrade in a package or hold him and hope the flames don’t go unstoked.
DAVID MONTGOMERY, RB, TEXANS
Running backs are a bit of a rare commodity right now. It seems there’s never enough for everyone. Go figure, right?!
In Week 1, Montgomery finished third among RBs in fantasy points over expectation (+12.4), but he still commanded a strong 15 xFP.
Toting the rock 20 total times, including 5 in the red zone along with 3 total targets, will often lead to strong fantasy finishes.
Still, there are some red flags there.
Woody Marks was the more efficient runner, averaging 4.7 YPC to Montgomery’s 3.0.
Looking beyond the box score, Marks forced a missed tackle on 44% of his carries as opposed to just 15% from Montgomery.
Marks also averaged a better YAC/att. and was more effective at creating before contact (+1.40 YBC/att.).
Most concerning of all was the fact that two-thirds of his fantasy output came on the back of his three touchdowns.
Fortunately, with the Bengals, Colts, and Cowboys as his next three opponents, Montgomery might still crank out strong performance after strong performance.
Other sell highs: Kalif Raymond (CHI), Chuba Hubbard (CAR)
