Think back! It’s 2024, and you have the 1.01 in your fantasy football league. Who were you taking? Now, wind the clocks forward a year and see how completely different that question has become.
Having the 1.01 usually represents a fist bump and a sigh of relief. Who can blame you, right? You definitely made the playoffs after drafting the consensus 1.01, right? Right?
There’s a risk with every fantasy football selection. Unless your name is Kenneth Walker III, then the injury bug doesn’t discriminate. Too soon?
Some players have extensive, terrifying histories with injuries. Walker just happened to be the punchline for my transition.
There are others that have such precarious situations on and off the field that their cost and production profile don’t agree.
Last year, Jaylen Waddle was a trendy value pick despite his almost weekly visit to the injury report. While the WR2 on his own team behind Tyreek Hill, Waddle still had a long history of producing when on the field.
Before the 2024 disaster that was the Miami Dolphins’ aerial attack, Waddle averaged nearly 1,130 yards and 6 trips to pay dirt.
The risk to Waddle last year was the major health concerns surrounding Tua Tagovailoa. This year, Waddle’s risk vs. reward makes him an interesting value and a low-risk investment at his current draft cost (ADP WR32).
None of the players on this list are untalented players that don’t have clear paths to being fantasy stalwarts. In fact, the following five players have ridiculously high ceilings. It’s just important not to get distracted by all the lights and the offseason hype and to keep perspective about what can go wrong clear.
THE 5 MOST DANGEROUS PLAYERS TO DRAFT IN 2025 FANTASY FOOTBALL
CHRISTIAN MCCAFFREY, RB, 49ERS
As I alluded to above, McCaffrey represents the single-biggest win-or-lose range of outcomes of any player. However, the guy in the second slot might have something to say about that.
He’s shown he can be an elite fantasy producer when he’s healthy, but lately, he’s dealt with some serious injuries that have cut into his playing time and his fantasy production.
Since 2019, CMC has either finished as the RB1 or RB2 or missed significant time due to injury. That’s a 50% success rate with the selection. That alone makes him a major risk to draft in the first round.
On the other hand, he scored 413 fantasy points (PPR) in 2019 (25.8 ppg), 21.0 ppg in 2022, and 22.4 ppg in 2023.
Achilles tendinitis is nothing to joke about. A cursory reading regarding its severity, courtesy of the Mayo Clinic, shows that the affliction typically sets in with rampant increases in runners who have “suddenly increased how hard or long they run.”
Last year’s four-game stretch was nothing short of disappointing for CMC. Averaging 17.3 opportunities per game, he failed to score 14 or more fantasy points every game.
Throwing out the fourth game, where he only played 25% of snaps, CMC’s workload was still great. He never played fewer than 82% of snaps and he averaged 5.3 targets and 14.3 rushes per game. What was most concerning was the glaring inefficiency of running the ball.
Over that three-game stretch, CMC averaged a measly 3.3 YPC and failed to eclipse 3 YPC in two of the three games. How much of that was prescriptive for 2025? That’s what makes him such a huge risk to draft.
In mid-July, reports came out that CMC was looking healthy and “so explosive.” Are those inefficient days behind him? At 29 years old with 1,871 touches and a long list of injury-riddled seasons, drafting CMC should come with a free bottle of Kentucky’s finest bourbon to soothe those anxious nights and weeks.
TYREEK HILL, WR, DOLPHINS
I did say the next guy on the list might have something to say about it.
Which Tyreek will show up in 2025? If we knew the answer to that, it would be an easy smash or fade.
Last season, Hill only saw double-digit targets twice, and only caught double-digit passes once. In 2023, Hill saw double-digit targets in all but five total games, and he caught double-digit passes three times.
He reportedly played last season with a wrist injury that some speculate might have inhibited his performance.
From 2023 to 2024, his yards per route run efficiency plummeted from an elite 3.9 Y/RR to a pedestrian 1.9 Y/RR.
Last season marked his least productive season since 2019, when he missed four games due to a shoulder injury.
- 2019: 89 targets, 58 receptions, 860 receiving yards, 7 TDs
- 2024: 122 targets, 81 receptions, 959 receiving yards, 6 TDs
Hill’s numbers really took a hit in games without Tua Tagovailoa. He averaged just 5.8 targets, 4.2 receptions, and 44.2 yards per game when Tua wasn’t playing. Even when Tua was in, Hill only went over 100 receiving yards twice in 11 games and averaged 12.4 fantasy points per game, which put him as WR18 during that stretch.
Despite commanding 38.4% of the team’s air yards, Hill only saw 20.1% of the team’s targets. In the interest of protecting Tua, it seemed the Dolphins elected for a quick-strike pass game, which limited Hill’s downfield effectiveness.
Should the Dolphins continue with that approach, then Hill’s high-value targets will likely suffer as a result, which presents a real cap to his ceiling. These red flags make Hill a real threat to bust, especially at 32 years of age. Draft with caution!
JAMES COOK, RB, BUFFALO BILLS
The Buffalo Bills’ ground attack is so juicy! It feels so wrong to write that Cook is a huge risk to draft.
Cook represents a high-risk, high-reward pick at his late third-round ADP (RB13).
Concerns revolve around his inflated touchdown total, doubling his total from the previous two seasons combined, as well as his reduced role in the passing game.
In 2024, Cook scored on 7.7% of his rushes. Among RBs with at least 150 rush attempts, that appears to be a significant outlier. The next closest running backs to his TD rate include:
- David Montgomery (6.5%)
- Jahmyr Gibbs (6.4%)
- Josh Jacobs (5.0%)
- Derrick Henry (4.9%)
In 2023, Cook’s role in the passing game blossomed. He caught 44 of his 54 targets while setting a career high in rush yards but only managed to score a combined 6 TDs. Still, despite averaging 3 more FP/g than in 2024 (13.7->16.7), he saw more rush attempts, rush yards, targets, and receptions than in 2024.
In 2024, the Bills utilized now second-year running back Ray Davis in what was described as a “meaningful workload” (130 touches).
On the flip side, there’s the chance the Bills increase Cook’s workload and he proves to be a true workhorse RB. Given the fact Cook played only 47.6% of the offensive snaps, down from 54.5% in 2023, that seems unlikely.
As one of the RBs that would otherwise be a value in the RB “dead zone,” Cook presents a lot of risk to fantasy drafters when safer options like Omarion Hampton, Chuba Hubbard, and James Conner can be nabbed a round later.
TERRY MCLAURIN, WR, WASHINGTON COMMANDERS
One of the biggest mistakes fantasy players can make is chasing touchdowns.
Last season, McLaurin caught 12 of his 15 red zone targets, with 10 TDs. He was the WR21 in red zone targets last season but finished tied with Amon-Ra St. Brown for the most red zone TDs.
Putting his season more into context, he scored around 3.4 xTD over expectation last season, and his 114 targets put him just inside the top 20 among WRs.
Scary Terry hasn’t caught more than 5 TDs in a season since his rookie season in 2019 (7 TDs). Now there’s no denying that Jayden Daniels is that dude and the best QB that McLaurin has played with in his career.
Being the alpha WR on a likely high-octane offense with an elite quarterback all make McLaurin an enticing draft selection.
At his third-round cost (#44 overall), the uncertainty surrounding his contract situation and his lack of training camp, along with the addition of Deebo Samuel to the offense, raise legitimate red flags surrounding his draftability.
MARVIN HARRISON JR., WR, ARIZONA CARDINALS
I got some flak last season in my Buy Low/Sell High series for proclaiming that Kyler Murray was not a good quarterback.
After a long offseason of soul-searching and self-reflection, I have concluded that he still, in fact, is not good.
While Harrison didn’t do himself any favors with his mediocre production, he was also crushed by the weight of the unrealistic expectations placed upon his shoulders.
In 2024, Harrison struggled to separate from defenders last season.
While not sticky as far as a predictive stat, it does highlight how WRs might have to win in other ways.
AJ Brown, for example, won by being more physical than defenders and having reliable hands when targeted. He had a +10.5% catch rate over expectation in tight windows and an overall catch rate of nearly 70%.
Harrison also struggled catching the ball in 2024. His 54.4% catch rate ranked 102/112 qualified WRs.
That dazzling week two performance gave fantasy managers a taste of what MHJ’s fantasy main course could be like. But once the smoke from the hype train cleared away, a scary stat revealed itself. MHJ produced 15% of his fantasy production in just the second quarter of that game alone.
He only finished as a WR2 or better in five games the rest of the year and finished outside the top eight times.
Not all of this was MHJ’s fault either. His utilization was nothing short of pathetic. MHJ ran a horizontally breaking route on 47.1% of his routes despite averaging 2.32 Y/RR on these routes. Meanwhile, he averaged a paltry 1.28 Y/RR on vertically breaking routes.
Perhaps the Cardinals pepper MHJ more on these more efficient routes, and he breaks out.
Despite being drafted as a top 20 WR, there are still a ton of question marks that need to be addressed before he can be a locked-in top 20 WR. Trey McBride appears to still be the top target in the offense.
Will he be used more to his strengths? Will he and Kyler get on the same page?
These questions make him a risky fantasy selection!
Honorable mention: Breece Hall, Joe Mixon, Kenneth Walker
