I hope everyone bought George Pickens low when I suggested it. A bogus overturned touchdown and a nullified touchdown reception neutralized another monster performance with Russell Wilson as his quarterback.
If you weren’t able to sell Darnell Mooney for a good price after he popped off against the hapless Bucs defense, then you have been graced with another window. Thank the stars because that gravy boat is finished.
He’s scored 45.5% of his fantasy points against the Bucs and has only finished the week better than a WR3/flex play one other time this season. He’s scored below 10 PPR points in four of his eight games and his rank (WR13) is much higher than his value.
It’s now week nine, and every week from now on is critical. Whether you’re trying to continue eviscerating your opponents and humiliating your league mates or just sneak into the playoffs, it’s do-or-die time.
Prune away the deadweight and let your fantasy rosters stand strong and self-sufficient like a proud oak tree.
Through a combination of opportunity-based expected fantasy points (xFP), usage, and market analysis, we hope to guide through when and why players should be bought and sold to maximize value while helping roster construction.
Week 9 Buy-Low Players
Jaylen Waddle
The splits with and without Tua are staggering for Waddle. We saw what a clown show the offense was without Tua manning the quarterback. Can I hear some MVP chants? No? Yeah, I don’t blame you.
The Dolphins offense operates with timing and precision, two things that Tua does well. He’s extremely accurate and his internal time clock is incredible.
Without Tua this season, Waddle has surpassed 10 xFP just once, in week five (14.2 xFP). With Tua last week, Waddle’s usage was only good for 9.8 xFP, but the running back room really put the offense on its back. Against the Bills, the team will have to maximize scoring efficiency, which favors a juicy marriage between the run and pass games.
Do you, Tua, take you, Jaylen? To pass and to catch, on the outside or in the slot, in the end zone or at the line, so long as you both can play?
Throughout their careers, Waddle and Tua have been a productive duo. Through 42 games, Waddle averages 15.53 PPR points and he averages 90 catches on 129 targets for 1,266 yards and 7 TDs.
Buy Waddle’s down game and make sure you do it before the Dolphins have to chuck the ball across the yard in a potential shootout.
Jake Ferguson
Mike McCarthy sucks.
This has been apparent since the end of his tenure with Green Bay. The pass-happy aerial attack and a butter-soft schedule last season have hoodwinked people into thinking McCarthy’s offense was going to maintain its potency. Guess what? Sometimes history repeats itself.
Dak Prescott has struggled this season. The offense is bland, predictable, and vanilla, did I mention bland?
The remaining schedule for Ferguson is a mixed bag.
The Falcons are a juicy matchup and this game is shaping up to be a potential barn burner. With an over/under around 51.5 and a 3.5-point spread in Atlanta’s favor currently, Ferguson could be peppered with targets and could see some valuable red zone work.
Buying Ferguson is more of an investment on the playoff stretch though. Weeks 15 through 17 see Ferguson squaring up against the Bengals, Panthers, and Bucs. Yes. Please.
Since returning from injury after week two, Ferguson has only had one bad game. He’s seen at least 7 targets in every game other than that debacle in Detroit and has caught at least 6 passes in every other non-Detroit game in that period.
That’s a valuable player at tight end coming off two down weeks. Buy, buy, buy. CUE THE DEADPOOL DANCE!
Week 9 Sell High Players
Kyler Murray
Kyler stinks, guys.
Yes, Kyler had a great game against Miami and has been on a heater, but take a closer look at those games.
He looked like a lost cause against San Francisco until the defense completely melted down and Kyler, to his credit, was able to find a way to win the game.
His offense only put up 17 points against the Chargers, and a large chunk of his production came off a touchdown run. Take a look at some of the background metrics, and you might see things my way.
On the season, Kyler ranks second in fantasy points over expectation per game, despite finishing as a QB2 in four of his eight games. He still can make some magic happen with his legs, but his passing acumen is holding him back.
He’s converted only 53% of his air yards and ranks 17th in total air yards per attempt despite being surrounded by pass-catching riches. He ranks 32nd in clean pocket accuracy rating and 27th in deep ball accuracy rating.
His upcoming schedule, which includes the Bears, Jets, BYE, Seattle, and Minnesota, also doesn’t do him any favors.
The Chicago Bears have allowed 0.6 passing touchdowns and only 13.17 PPR points per game across their previous five games and they allow the fourth fewest points per drive on the season. However, Jayden Daniels did just put up 25.5 points last week, so fantasy managers would be relying on Murray running for his life on his way to fantasy relevance.
Flip Murray for something like Dak + and maximize your roster depth and upside.
Calvin Ridley
A monster week and name value could close this deal. The remaining strength of schedule gives you a valuable bargaining chip.
The Titans have the second-best remaining strength of schedule for the WR position. So why is Ridley a sell-high and not a stash? Well, there’s a case to be made for stashing him, but at this point, it’s wiser to minimize your risk and maximize your floor so you can chase upside elsewhere!
This season, Ridley has been targeted 51 times. He’s caught 20. No, that’s not a typo.
With Will Levis at quarterback this season, get a look at this target, reception discrepancy.
Ridley’s paced for 92 targets but only 31 receptions. On 92 targets, he’s pacing for 479 yards and 3 TDs. No, thank you.
Even if things get better with a more friendly schedule, Levis is coming back soon from his injury, perhaps even next game.
Sell Ridley based on a little bump from his last game and search for a higher floor flex play to solidify your roster for the playoff stretch or package him to buy an upgrade at the position!
