With Jonathan Taylor sidelined due to a high ankle sprain, Trey Sermon is poised for a more significant role in the Colts’ offense heading into Week 5, making him a top fantasy football streamer as long as Taylor is out of the lineup.
This is the fourth time that Taylor has suffered a right ankle sprain, with him most recently missing the final three games of the 2022 season. Taylor, our Rest of Season RB9, was off to a fast start through four games, racking up 349 yards and four touchdowns on 72 carries.
Currently, the only other active running backs on the roster are Sermon and Tyler Goodson, with Evan Hull and Trent Pennix available on the practice squad. Sermon is expected to handle the bulk of the carries, while Goodson works in as a change-of-pace option.
“We’ve got a lot of faith in Trey,” Colts HC Shane Steichen said after Week 2. “We don’t want J.T. in there every single play. It’s a long season. Trey’s a good runner, he did some good things for us, so he gets some reps, too.”
TREY SERMON FANTASY OUTLOOK WITHOUT JONATHAN TAYLOR
Through four games, Sermon has been the clear RB2 for the Colts, having taken all nine rushing attempts given to non-Taylor backs. In a previous game last season without Taylor or Zack Moss, the Colts formed a committee in Week 15 where Sermon saw 17 carries for 88 yards, and Goodson chipped in with 11 carries for 69 yards. If the Colts can get ahead early, we might see a similar split in workload, although game flow will largely dictate the rushing volume.
The status of quarterback Anthony Richardson (GTD, hip) will be a significant factor in the run game. If Richardson plays, his mobility could create more opportunities for Sermon and Goodson, as the threat of a running quarterback forces defenses to adjust. This dynamic could lead to more rushing lanes and first-down opportunities for the backs, especially in situations where the Colts need to grind out the clock and control time of possession.
However, if Joe Flacco is forced into duty, the offense might lean pass-heavy, emphasizing Sermon’s pass-blocking chops and giving him lighter boxes in the run game. In that scenario, Indianapolis could look to control the game through the air early, with Sermon and Goodson potentially seeing more work late to close things out. Sermon should also handle goal-line duties after scoring a physical two-yard touchdown in Week 3 vs Chicago.
Behind Pro Football Focus’ top offensive line, Sermon will be able to take advantage of clear running lanes, especially to the left side, where All-Pro Quenton Nelson and left tackle Bernhard Raimann handle opposing defensive lines.
SHOULD YOU START TREY SERMON IN WEEK 5?
Volume is king in fantasy football, and Trey Sermon will see heavy volume in Week 5 against a favorable Jacksonville defense. The Jaguars have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to running backs this season, including six backs who scored over 13 points, with two near the 20-point mark.
Sermon isn’t the most efficient rusher, averaging just 3.7 yards per carry over the last two seasons, but his potential workload in Taylor’s absence makes him a viable fantasy option. He could see 15-20 touches, similar to Zack Moss’s role last season when Taylor was out, averaging 15.4 fantasy points per game.
The Wolf pencils in Sermon at RB26 (-2 vs ECR) in his Week 5 Fantasy Rankings and is considered a strong RB2/FLEX play until Taylor returns, depending on your running back depth.
