The 2024 Fantasy Football season is just one day away from kicking off. I’ve done almost 400 Best Ball drafts, while I have my 7th and 8th redraft fantasy drafts tonight. I’m sick, I know. But I am confident that, by now, I know the best picks in 2024 fantasy football.
Maybe you’re squeezing in a few last-minute drafts. Or maybe you’re admiring your glorious rosters and looking for some validation.
Regardless, it’s time to plant some flags. Here are The Wolf’s 10 Best Picks in 2024 Fantasy Football.
The Best QB Picks in 2024 Fantasy Football
Jalen Hurts (PHI-QB)
Bold, Wolf! The consensus QB2 in Fantasy Drafts, Jalen Hurts?! How do you live so close to the edge?
Look, just because it’s obvious doesn’t mean it’s wrong. I’ve taken Hurts in Round 3 of all six of my redraft leagues so far. I list him because it indicates a huge philosophical switch on my part.
I used to be a “wait on QB, no matter what” drafter. I took pride in being the last league-member to take a signal-caller every time. No longer.
As covered in my 2024 Fantasy Draft Guide, I have completely flipped my philosophy. I am confident in my ability to pluck late-round RB & WR gems and navigate the Waiver Wire with the best of them. The way to capitalize on this and get the most “bang-for-the-buck” is to secure the truly elite edges you will almost never find in those dark rounds or in free agency. Routinely outscoring your opponents’ QB & TE is such an advantage.
Jalen Hurts anywhere in Round 3 is the ultimate edge you can secure. You can take an Elite Hero-Worthy RB, maybe a second or a Top-12 WR, and still get a QB who’s topped 21 FPPG in all three years as a starter. The QB1 & QB2 the past two seasons. 10+ rushing TDs in three straight seasons, and 35+ total TDs over his past two.
In 2023, Hurts and Josh Allen were the only two QBs on 60% or higher playoff rosters (ESPN). Allen was also 5th in FantasyPoints’ Fantasy Wins above Replacement (2.39), while Hurts was 9th.
Allen IS my QB1 in my 2024 Fantasy Football Rankings. If the price were the same, I’d have Allen on every team right now. However, Allen has crept up into Round 2, whereas Hurts goes 12-15 picks later. The ability to secure De’Von Achane, Kyren Williams, Nico Collins, or Deebo Samuel in Round 2, to then pair with Hurts later, is too great to pass up.
Sure, losing Jason Kelce may hurt for those goal-line “Tush Push” TDs. Yet, Kelce himself handpicked Cam Jurgens, who’s a BEAST. Hurts (& his 600+ lbs squats) is the crucial element there. I still expect 12+ rushing TDs.
Plus, I could see Hurts post his best year as a passer under new OC Kellen Moore. Yes, the Chargers were grossly disappointed last season, but Moore still plays fast and throws often. His offense has ranked top-6 in points per game in 4 of 5 seasons. They’ve been Top-5 in YFS per game in 4 of 5 seasons. They’ve been Top-4 in situation-neutral pace of play in 4 of 5 seasons, and top-7 in plays per game in 5 of 5 seasons.
With AJ Brown and Devonta Smith still very-much in their primes, this offense could reignite and re-gain that 2022 massive upside. You can certainly make a case for Hurts to be the QB1 based on his surrounding skill talent, and the fact he goes nearly a full round cheaper than JA makes him a more regular target of mine. Those two are in tiers above the field.
Jayden Daniels (WAS-QB)
While I have gone 6/6 Jalen Hurts in redraft so far… Jayden Daniels is right up there in my highest-rostered Best Ball QBs. He is my clear back-up plan if I do miss out on one of the Big 4 (Allen, Hurts, Mahomes, Lamar), and by far the best value QB of 2024 if you prefer waiting to draft signal callers.
QBs with rushing upside have become a Fantasy Cheatcode. In fact, Rich Hribar coined it “the Konami Code,” referencing an old Nintendo code that essentially made you unbeatable in Contra, Castlevania, or Mortal Kombat.
Again referencing the great Scott Barrett, since 2000, 41 QBs have played 12+ games and averaged 5.5+ rush attempts per game. Of them, 34 finished as Top-12 QBs (83%) and 24 finished Top-6 (59%) in FPPG.
No QB to post 750+ rushing yards has finished lower than 9th in FPs, even if their passing was minimal.
15-of-16 QBs with 125 rush attempts have finished as a Top-12 QB, with the lone exception of Cam Newton during his dreadful Patriots run (he still was QB16). Most of those finished in the Top-5, too.
If you needed further convincing, Tim Tebow was the QB7 in FPPG despite ranking 42nd in attempts per start and 38th in passer rating.
In typical settings, rushing yards are 2.5x more valuable than passing, and rushing TDs are 1.5x more valuable than passing scores. As such, QBs that offer “leg points” are infinitely more valuable than typical pocket passers.
It’s simply the most significant QB edge you can find in fantasy, especially when combined with QBs who are also accruing explosive passing game production, too.
Understandably, these QBs almost exclusively now go in the Top-4 Rounds of Fantasy Drafts, with Kyler Murray an exception in the Round 5-6 range. Almost never do “Konami Eligible” QBs fall outside the Top 100.
Enter Jayden Daniels.
Despite averaging +4 more rushing FPs than ANTHONY RICHARDSON (!) in college, Daniels is going 50+ picks later right now. In 12 games last year, Daniels ran for an absurd 1,133 yards & 10 TDs on 135 carries (8.5 YPA) – legit RB1 numbers.
This is in addition to a whopping 3813 yards and 40 TDs through the air, on a 72% completion percentage! Konami Rushing builds in a floor, but when we get someone actually capable of slinging the rock, the ceiling is truly limitless. 50 TDs, nearly 5K total yards, all in the SEC?!
He’s much more “Lamar” than “Richardson” in his speedy, shifty style… and also in his frailer build. That’s seen as the biggest risk for Daniels – he suffered a concussion last year, and an ankle sprain (that he played through) in 2022.
Still, Daniels is the type of prospect that OOZES in fantasy potential. It doesn’t hurt that he landed in a great spot too. Say what you will about Kliff Kingsbury, but his offenses ranked first in situation-neutral pace and no-huddle rate during his four seasons in Arizona.
Under Kingsbury’s direction, Kyler Murray was the QB15, QB6, QB5, QB10, averaging over 20 FPPG in 3 of 4 seasons, and tallying at least 418+ rush yds (including an 819 rush yd, 11 TD season). Dare I say Daniels is significantly more dangerous of a runner?
Stir in some interesting weapons in Terry McLaurin and athletic rookies Luke McCaffrey and TE Ben Sinnott, plus a dynamic backfield in Brian Robinson and Austin Ekeler. Daniels has all the ingredients to be a fantasy weapon from day one. My biggest concern is this offensive line, which ranks dead last by many respected OL Evaluators. Daniels could be running for his life (not a bad thing for stats!), and one huge hit could send his season spiraling.
Still, the upside is well-worth the squeeze, and veterans like Matthew Stafford and Kirk Cousins often fall to the last rounds of drafts to bake in a nice floor should Daniels not pan out / get hurt. Daniels is the ULTIMATE Round 9 QB if you forego the elite Round 3 options – and if he hits, you can build super teams around him.
The Best RB Picks in 2024 Fantasy Football
I have already written in-depth about the “Hero Worthy RBs” for 2024 Fantasy Football. Of course, Christian McCaffrey, Breece Hall, and Bijan Robinson are the best picks you can make at the position, and are well-worth Top-5 picks overall.
Yet, I want to focus on two guys everyone will have a shot to draft in 2024 Fantasy Football.
De’Von Achane (RB-MIA)
While De’Von Achane has crept into Round 2 at times, he still often falls to Round 3 in redraft leagues. The upside he offers at this price is impossible to pass up, and I think he’s worth a Round 2 investment.
He’s already flashed that “Legendary RB” ability. Achane ranked 44th in opportunities, but was the RB5 in FPPG and RB1 (31.8 FPPG!!) if you remove games where he saw under ten snaps.
His fantasy production was the result of absurd efficiency. Achane was Number ONE in:
- Fantasy points over expectation (+6.7 FPs per game)
- Yards per touch (7.7)
- Breakaway run rate (12.6%)
- Yards after contact per touch (4.94)
- Elusive Rating (153.5)
- FPs per opportunity (1.36)
The dude put up nearly 50 FPs in his first true NFL action! He led the NFL in runs over 40+ yards with five total… on just 103 carries. He racked up over 400 yards on his first 30 carries. Achane scored 7 TDs in his first four games, the first player to do that since 1943.
You could go on and on about the impressive, record-breaking stats and efficiency that Achane flashed. Needless to say, he has the talent to be a true League-Winner.
Sure, Achane comes with risk. Raheem Mostert, who led the NFL in rushing touchdowns last year, is still here. The team also traded up to draft speedster Jaylen Wright (who I love in Dynasty and Best Ball). At just 5’9″ and 188 lbs, there’s obvious injury risk to Achane. Still, Achane proved plenty capable of shouldering a massive workload, accumulating 40% of Texas A&M’s yards and scores (91st percentile Dominator Rating).
Moreover, Achane reportedly had two goals this offseason: “Get stronger to better withstand the hits taken in the NFL and improve on his route-running to get the ball more often in the passing game.”
During OTAs, Achane reportedly moved all over while working out with the WRs more often. My favorite Miami beat, Travis Wingfield predicts a massive Achane breakout in 2024. A quote from his recent podcast (long but worth reading):
“My god, De’Von Achane is going to have a monster year. He’s here, he’s there, he’s everywhere. This guy is doing so much with his game. His usage in the passing game, how he himself circled that as something he could improve upon to get more of a piece of the pie of this dynamic offense that has oodles and oodles of skill players who can beat you, and burn you, and score on you.
“I just think Achane, maybe he’s receiver three. I’m watching this guy line up in the slot and run a slot fade and cook a corner—the pacing, the line up the stem, the explosive step to widen and then cut back inside; he looks like a receiver when he’s playing the position. He just looks like that.
“This might be the next Christian McCaffrey in terms of overall versatility and general usage. Pass game, run game, he’s just a big play waiting to happen. It’s totally wild and something I haven’t seen before.
“This guy is going to be a freaking superstar. I don’t know what else to tell you. He is one of the best players on the field of a team that I think is one of the best five teams in the NFL. De’Von Achane, breakout superstar of the year.”
If that doesn’t get you jazzed up, I don’t know what will. Indeed, the injury and split-workload downside is real. Yet, Achane has the highest ceiling of any RB not named CMC.
Achane is a stone-cold LOCK pick in Round 3, and if you don’t think he’ll make it back to you there, I am more than OK taking Achane in Round 2. He might be my “Must Draft of 2024.”
Kenneth Walker III (RB-SEA)
I mostly pass on the Round 3-5 RBs in favor of the elite WRs that fall to this range.
Yet, Kenneth Walker is the easy click if I start WR-WR-WR or need an RB1 at a Round 4 price. Given the depth of WR in redraft leagues, I have started drafts Breece Hall, Isiah Pacheco, Jalen Hurts, and Ken Walker… and still left with a formidable WR room.
With a 4.38 forty (98th percentile), Walker is much more explosive than your typical “Dead Zone RB.” His 10 “Breakaway” runs ranked 15th, while his 8.9 YPR was 4th.
I am also intrigued by acquiring all pieces of Ryan Grubb’s offense, especially the run game. Grubb is a former O-line guy who has preached that the offense will flow through creative run concepts. His lead RB racked up 1100 yards and 16 TDs at Washington in a clear featured role.
The training camp hype has been solid, too, with SI’s Bert Breer noting:
“Kenneth Walker III was the star of Monday’s practice, the first one in full pads, and it reflected the sort of spring and summer he’s had. To the new staff, he looks like the kind of back you can play on all three downs, and build a running game around. And Zach Charbonnet gives the team some depth behind him.”
Even more intriguing, HC Mike Macdonald hinted at feeding Walker a massive workload when he said, “Every time we go over the roster, [RBs coach] Kennedy [Polamalu], he gives me a little hint like, ‘Let’s feed this guy, he can be special.'”
OC Grubb echoed this sentiment, saying: ““I think he gets better every single day. I think the sky’s the limit for him. I think he’s a really, really talented, powerful back that’s a true three-tool guy… He’s electric out of the backfield as a pass-catcher.”
KW had one of the worst early-down success rates last year and is often criticized for not getting what’s blocked—he had the sixth-most “stuffed runs” in the league. Additionally, Charbonnet is a talented backup behind him, one who could theoretically eat into Walker’s workload if he’s not succeeding.
Still, I do like KW more than most RBs in this range. He’s an explosive RB being groomed for a three-down role in a Top-15 offense… but being drafted in plodder territory.
Gus Edwards (RB-LAC)
For better or for (likely) worse, Gus Edwards ended up being my second-highest-owned RB in Best Ball, besides Jaylen Wright (one of my Top-10 Must Draft Fantasy Sleepers set to explode).
Yet, if Edwards had a 2024 season that rivaled 2023 Raheem Mostert, I wouldn’t be stunned. They are completely different players, but I see a similar “unsexy veteran scores 15+ TDs” upside to Gus in this Harbaugh / Roman Chargers Rushing attack.
Under Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman, the Chargers backfield will produce value. Across ten seasons, a Roman-led offense has ranked:
- Top-10 in rush attempts every season & Top-3 in 7/10 years
- Top-10 in rush yards every season, Top-3 in 7/10, and No.1 in 4/10
- Top-10 in rush TDs in 7/10 years, Top-5 in 5/10
Edwards has also thrived in this scheme before. He’s never been below 5.0 YPC in four seasons with Roman.
No, “The Gus Bus” isn’t flashy or exciting. But the 29-year-old posted single-season career highs in games played (17), starts (nine), rushing yards (810), rushing touchdowns (13), and rushing attempts (198). His 13 touchdowns tied for third among NFL running backs and No. 2 among AFC running backs.
He’s also got almost no competition to be the most well-fed mouth of this delicious ground pie. JK Dobbins is impressing in camp off his Achilles tear, but literally no one has ever rebounded just one season after, and he’s also had multiple knee injuries, too. Kimani Vidal was an interesting rookie prospect, but he went in Round 6, and didn’t make much noise in camp (still a great sleeper stash, though).
This seems to be Gus’ job for the taking. That’s what Joe Hortitz, previously of the Ravens with a well-established history with Gus, said when they signed him:
“He’s the bell cow, the goal line [guy], the finisher,” he continued. “The right mentality for what we’re looking to do here. I told you we wanted to be bigger, play a physical style of football on both sides of the ball and he helps us do that.”
“I think specifically with Gus, I’ve seen him deal with the adversity of the [ACL] injury two years ago and come back from it,” he said. “Grind, be physical, continue to play the same brand of football he’s always played. Really excited to have him.”
Ultimately, Gus is a strong bet to lead the way in one of the most productive and voluminous run schemes in the league. To get him well after Pick 100 = stealing, no matter how unsexy it may feel.
The Best WR Picks in 2024 Fantasy Football
Again, I could just say CeeDee Lamb and Tyreek Hill are the best picks. They are the only two players I see worthy of challenging Christian McCaffrey‘s claim to No.1 Overall.
I want to focus on the guys in the Mid-Rounds who could explode and be Top-12 WRs. Three names really stick out to me:
Terry McLaurin (WAS-WR)
Since his surprising rookie-year splash, Terry McLaurin has seemingly underwhelmed relative to his price.
Even so, McLaurin has finished as the WR30, WR19, WR25, WR16, and WR32, suggesting he’s being drafted at his floor right now.
Meanwhile, I expect McLaurin to hit his ceiling in a career-best setup for 2024.
First, Jayden Daniels should be, by far, the top QB McLaurin has ever played with. From 2019-2022, McLaurin caught passes from a whopping 11 different QBs, nearly all of them bad. 2023 marked the only year McLaurin played with one QB in all 17 games… and that was Sam Howell… inside Eric Bienemy‘s dreadful “spread-the-wealth” show.
In fact, when McLaurin played two drives with Jacoby Brissett last year (his first competent QB since Alex Smith), he exploded. 93 yards, and 1 TD. Just barely missed a second TD. On TWO DRIVES!
Daniels should provide the stability and arm talent to launch McLaurin to his highest ceiling yet. The duo has reportedly been staying after practice to work on chemistry, and the rapport has been on fire, especially deep down the field.
Plus, Kliff Kingsbury‘s RPO-heavy scheme, which relentlessly targets WR1s. Last preseason, Ben Gretch did phenomenal work outlining just how concentrated target shares become on RPO-based plays. These plays decrease the number of reads a QB must make and require quick decisions, resulting in huge target volume for the top two options.
Just look at the 2022 Eagles, who leaned on RPOs at a league-high clip. AJ Brown and Devonta Smith posted 145 and 136 targets respectively. The Dolphins, who rank third in RPOs, flow through Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.
Meanwhile, Kingsbury routinely ranked towards the top of the league in RPOs, and routinely peppered his WR1s. During Kingsbury’s last season, the WR1 (DHop or Marquise Brown) notched 10+ targets in 10-of-16 games; they both averaged 10.6+ targets per game (Top-5) as the No.1 option.
Kingsbury also averaged the most plays run and fastest pace while with the Cardinals, per Pat Thorman.
Inside this scheme, and with this QB, McLaurin has a realistic shot at 150+ targets from the best QB of his career. At worst, he should hover around his career-average finish as the WR24. At best, he could finally prove to be the WR1 that many seem to be giving up on just a tad too early.
Calvin Ridley (WR-TEN)
Over his career, Calvin Ridley has finished as the WR20, WR27 (missed four games, WR18 in FPPG), WR5 and WR20, but he’s now going ~WR37?
This isn’t Mike Vrabel’s Titans anymore. New HC Brian Callahan‘s Bengals ranked Top-7 in attempts in three of five years; during Joe Burrow’s healthy seasons, the Bengals finished Top-7 in passing yards and TDs. They have been Top-10 in Pass Rate over Expected in all his years, even with Jake Browning at QB. Callahan also coached Matthew Stafford and Peyton Manning, so perhaps he’s the perfect guy to squeeze what they can out of cannon-armed Will Levis.
Ridley himself should see much-improved usage. Ridley was locked into a static and deep sideline role in Jacksonville with some truly odd route deployment. Yet, he still finished as a top-10 receiver in 35% of games. Callahan, meanwhile, plans to use Ridley more dynamically, similar to Ja’Marr Chase‘s role in Cincinnati:
“Being able to move Calvin around is going to be exciting… I just think it’s a good group that has some flexibility, particularly with Calvin. I think he has played all over the formation, so that part to me is exciting.”
“You are [looking at a very similar role to what Ja’Marr [Chase] played in terms of his ability to move, move around the formation, use him in motion. He’s got such a unique skill set, he’s got great quickness, he’s got great speed, he can run all the routes…he can win inside, he can win outside, he’s got a lot of different things he can do well.”
This improved usage will be huge, as it should allow Ridley cleaner releases. Based on Matt Harmon‘s “Reception Perception,” this will be huge, as Ridley did well against all types of coverage besides press (71.9% success v. man & 80.4% vs. Zone, compared to 66.7% vs. press).
The results are strong in camp so far, with beat writer Easton Freeze writing: “With every passing day of watching Calvin Ridley at Titans camp, the more confident I am the Jaguars are morons. His usage last season was a fireable offense. They painted this skill set into a very stupid box. This is a player you force the ball, at every layer of the field.”
The last time Ridley was used in creative, “move-around” ways, he was the WR5 in fantasy. This reminds me a lot of 2023 Mike Evans if Levis can be anything close to Baker Mayfield. Levis (my favorite QB sleeper of 2024) finished the preseason 11-of-13 (84%) for 153 yards, leading the team to 24 points on four possessions. If Levis this dialed in during the season, Ridley will blow up.
Xavier Worthy (KC-WR)
This math seems quite easy: Xavier Worthy is the fastest player in NFL history (4.21 forty). The cannon-armed Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid have maximized speed more than any other duo ever. They traded up to secure Worthy and must have a vision for how to maximize this deadly weapon.
The glaring difference between Worthy and past speed failures (MVS, Toney) is his deadly ability in the screen game.
No one crafts a more deadly screen game than Reid. How often did we see Tyreek Hill get schemed into space, and then outrun the entire defense for 50+ yard TDs?
This is among Worthy’s biggest strengths. As Scott Barrett pointed out, “46% of his career catches have come on screens (most of any projected top-25 Power 5 WR in this class), and 28% of his career targets have come on deep passes (most of any projected top-10 Power 5 WR in this class).” You can already picture the advantageous ways Reid will craft to get Worthy outrunning the entire defense.
While Worthy’s “screen-reliance” may be negative in some landing spots, it’s a match made in heaven in Kansas City, given the expected usage. Also, for a speedster, Worthy was shockingly bad on deep targets in college (his 9.2 YPT on deep passes ranks worst for any projected non-UDFA Power 5 WR in the class). Yet, Worthy had the worst deep catchable target rate of any WR over the last four classes (33%). This suggests a massive untapped ceiling that Mahomes is the perfect passer to unlock.
Worthy should eat from day one and could become a Round 1-2 fixture in startups for years to come, tethered to Mahomes and the Chiefs. Yes, there’s a viral Camp highlight of him getting tossed like a rag doll in (clearly illegal) press coverage. He is tiny, and not particularly strong – so injuries could be a factor here.
Yet, far more often we’re seeing highlight deep bomb after bomb where Mahomes and Worthy are connecting with ease. Don’t let recent Chiefs WRs busts like Skyy Moore and Kadarius Toney make you gun-shy. Worthy is going to EAT in a Chiefs offense committed to regaining its explosive identity.
Although Reid normally takes it slow with rookies, the Chiefs are also throwing Worthy right into the fire. He’s been a near every-down WR, with an 89% route participation with Mahomes this preseason . He played all but three snaps with the starters last week, and now has 25% target share & 68% Air Yard share!
In Week 2, he racked up four touches (3 rec) for 73 yards & 1 TD. He’s moving around more than any other Chiefs WR, with his TD coming out of the slot. He’s getting designed runs and screens. The speediest player to ever touch an NFL field is being used early and often, and should break out HUGE. I have him at 50 overall – he goes around 90 right now in Redraft ADP, but be prepared to spend what you need to lock him up.
Ultimately, the Chiefs and Mahomes seem due to erupt for another 5K & 50 TDs, and the weapons have never been cheaper. BUY BUY BUY all Chiefs, especially Worthy, in all formats!
The Best TE Picks in 2024 Fantasy Football
Mark Andrews (BAL-TE)
Similar to the philosophy outlined with Jalen Hurts, I LOVE securing a high-end TE and dominating the “onesie” spots on a weekly basis. Just like how Allen has a greater opportunity cost at QB than Hurts, both Travis Kelce and Sam LaPorta go 12-20 picks ahead of Andrews!
Fun fact: Andrews averaged only 0.2 FPPG fewer than LaPorta, the No.1 TE last season (11.3 vs. 11.5). Is that really worth a 2+ round higher pick?
Routinely going in Round 2 last year, Andrews at his ~50-55 ADP is a steal. Over the past five years, Andrews has finished as the TE5, TE5, TE1, TE4, and TE5 in FPPG.
In Todd Monken‘s new attack, Lamar Jackson set career highs with 457 pass attempts and 3678 yards. This was during a season when the Ravens had a historically good defense that ranked 8th best all-time. With Lamar, they only trailed for 45 total snaps in the second half!
Given Lamar’s 36-TD season and that this team will undoubtedly have to throw more often in closer games, there’s plenty of upside to adding more scores and yards in Year 2 of the Monken offense.
Also…Andrews was THE TE1 and highest-rostered player on Fantasy Playoff finals teams in 2022. No, he probably won’t return to the 26.6% target share or 30% targets per route that year, nor the 107 rec for 1,361 yards with nine touchdown receptions…. yet… we know the ceiling exists!
Andrews still was plenty effective when available last year. He notched a healthy 22.2% target share and was targeted on 22.6% of his routes run. Moreover, Andrews averaged 2.01 yards per route run (3rd) and 8.9 yards per target (4th). He was on pace for over 900 yards & 10 TDs, easy top-5 TE numbers. If you only count his 9 healthy games, Andrews averaged 12.2 Half-PPR FPPG, which would’ve been the top-TE on the season. I’ll side with his consistency over the young guns as my No.3 TE.
Jake Ferguson (DAL-TE)
the Cowboys ranked first in total points (30.1), passing yards (265.8), pass attempts (37.4), and passing TDs (2.2) per game, despite a putrid start to 2023.
Yet, behind Lamb, the target tree is questionable. The team lost Michael Gallup and added no one besides fifth-round rookie Ryan Flournoy. Sure, Brandin Cooks is still here, but behind CeeDee Lamb, the table is wide open for massive shares of one of the juiciest Aerial Pies in the NFL.
Enter Jake Ferguson, who has the upside of being the second-highest target earner on the 2024 Cowboys.
Among TEs, he already ranked third in total routes (511) and 7th in targets (102), despite not playing a full-time role until Week 6. He notched 5+ targets in 12 games, which yielded a steady share of TE1 weeks (per RotoViz). His impressive catch rate significantly boosts his fantasy value:
Like Dalton Schultz before him, Ferguson was also highly-utilized in the Red Zone. He finished as TE 1 in targets from inside the 20, TE1 in targets from inside the 10, TE2 in End Zone targets.
Unfortunately, he was unbelievably unlucky in converting these looks into TDs, as he scored -3.8s over expected (per Hayden Winks). In fact, no one is more due for positive TD regression than Ferg.
Of course, we already saw that TD regression hit in the playoffs, where Ferguson hauled in an absurd 10 rec (12 tgts), 93 yards, and 3 TDs for 37.3 PPR FPs vs. the Packers! His performance in PPR scoring leagues was outstanding. Imagine if he can string together similar TD luck across the full season. Ferguson continues to show promise and potential for a breakout season.
Then consider: Ferguson was actually good! He was 2nd in missed tackles forced and 6th in yards after catch per reception among TEs. His receiving yards further contribute to his overall fantasy value. Ferguson has all the makings of an elite fantasy TE, but goes 3+ rounds later. After him, the position gets ghastly, so I typically hammer Ferguson in Round 8.
Ferguson himself believes he is only “scratching the surface.” He plans to take his game to an even higher level next season:
“There’s so many things that I want to get better at and I know I can get better at. We watch film every day of different games, even the practices we’re doing now and I’m like, ‘OK, I can get a lot better still.'”
His coaches agree, with Mike McCarthy adding: “Jake has so much more to give.”
Even Dak Prescott joined in on the hype: “Obviously, you see the jump he made from Year 1 to Year 2,” Prescott said, “and he’s improved his intensity in his preparation just in this offseason — the way he’s treated his body, the way that he’s been communicating with me throughout the offseason, whether it’s catching and throwing, he’s a big-time playmaker for this team, this offense.”
In short, Ferguson enters 2024 as a third-year pro with a year under his belt and in an even more favorable position to see volume in 2023’s top-passing attack. Despite already finishing as a Top-6 TE during last year’s final 11 games, Ferguson has the potential to take a significant step forward.
If you enjoyed this content and would like to support The Wolf and a small fantasy-brand like us, check out The Wolf’s 2024 Fantasy Football Guide! He gives plenty of more 2024 Fantasy Football Targets, and so much more on the perfect Draft Strategy to feast in 2024 Fantasy Football!
