Is there any feeling better than nailing the perfect Late Round Fantasy Football sleeper? As someone who hasn’t felt grass or a woman’s touch, I can’t name one.
Last year, I nailed Tank Dell and Kyren Williams as two of my “must-draft” sleepers. They were absolutely crucial to my 2023 fantasy football success.
Lets dive into my favorite 2024 Fantasy Football Sleepers. Here are 10 “Penny Stocks” that get drafted well after Pick 120+, but could explode.
For more 25+ more 2024 Fantasy Football Sleepers, check out The Wolf’s 2024 Fantasy Football Guide! Support a small fantasy brand & dominate your draft for only $10!
For Round-by-Round strategy, targets, and fades check out The Wolf’s 2024 Fantasy Football Guide! Support a small fantasy brand & dominate your draft for only $10!
2024 Fantasy Football Sleepers: Quarterbacks
Geno Smith (182 ADP, QB24)
Every year, at least one new play-caller comes in to spike fire for an entire offense and produce massive fantasy values as a result.
Sean McVay took the Rams from literally worst to first in scoring when he arrived. Mike McDaniel has made the Dolphins an annual juggernaut. Shoot, just last year Bobby Slowik helped CJ Stroud and the Texans develop into an Aerial Bonanza.
This year, there’s a ton of new playcallers with upside. I’m most intrigued by Seahawks OC Ryan Grubb, who entered the NFL after calling plays for the high-powered Washington Huskies last year, and especially what he can do for Geno Smith and the Seattle passing game.
Washington ranked 9th highest in pass play rate in the nation, in an aerial attack that helped three WRs get drafted in the top-3 rounds. If you’re wondering what to expect in this scheme, here’s a strong summary:
In Seattle, Grubb inherits three dangerous WRs who perfectly fit the roles he built around in college. DK Metcalf would be the X (Odunze), Jaxon Smith-Njigba the H (McMillan) and Tyler Lockett the Z (Polk). This could be the most dangerous 3 WR group in the NFL if used properly and complementarity.
If Grubb proves to be the real deal, Geno will be set up for massive fantasy totals. Thus far, Geno reportedly “loves” Grubb and the offense, and he spent the summer working out in Los Angeles, Dallas and Fort Lauderdale, Florida, with teammates to get it down, allowing “Smith to start camp on a hot streak.”
Geno’s skills should fit this offense like a glove, particularly his deep passing. In 2022, Smith was THE best deep passer in NFL per PFF: 99.2 Rating (No.1), 47.1% comp % (No.2) & 15 TDs (No.1), on just the 10th most attempts!
Last year, he was reined in quite a bit more by Shane Waldron, but still finished 6th in Deep Passer Rating.
Grubb described his quarterback as “awesome” (& hinted at some untapped Konami Rushing Upside)
“I think that there is a really good marriage there with some of the skill set that Geno has. We asked our quarterbacks to do a lot. Luckily for us, Geno’s really athletic as well. We don’t have to limit it to just drop back. I think he’s really good in the play-action game, as well.”
The praise for Geno from beats has poured in fast and furious. Some standout hype:
“Smith continued to spin it on Saturday, demonstrating a lightning quick release and elite accuracy dropping deep balls into the hands of his receivers.”
“Continuing to shine and demonstrate excellent command orchestrating Grubb’s offense, Smith turned in another outstanding practice on Friday, launching the ball downfield with great success all afternoon.”
Grubb also suggested allowing Geno to run more, and Smith is all about it:
“Last year, really midway through the season, I felt I could have used my legs a little bit more,” said Smith, whose 155 rushing yards on 37 carries were down from 366 yards on 68 attempts the previous season. “That’s something I want to continue to do. I’m still very athletic. I play within the pocket, that’s the base of my game, but I think I could add an extra element to what defenses have to account for if I get a couple extra first downs or a couple of extra touchdowns.”
Given this is essentially a contract year for Geno (no guaranteed money in 2025), he’ll definitely be fired up to put his best ball on tape. The line is definitely a concern, but if Grubb (originally an OL coach) can help mask their deficiencies, this could be the perfect marriage of Skill Set + Weapons + Play Calling to invoke a nuclear fantasy reaction.
Geno clocks in as my QB20 in my 2024 Fantasy Football Rankings, +4 the ECR.
The Wolf is high on Ryan Grubb sparking a massive fantasy explosion in a Seattle offense loaded with weapon. All of Geno, DK, and Ken Walker are on his target list, and even JSN and Lockett could be nice values at their depressed prices.
Will Levis (176 ADP, QB23)
Levis flashed the arm talent last year, especially in his 4 TD, 29 fantasy point TNF debut. The only problem? He only threw four more TDs the entire rest of the way (8 starts).
I have a hard time judging Levis for anything last year, though. He never topped 23 attempts, and was below 20 passes in 7 of 9 games. No QB can rack up stats on that low volume! Vrabel’s offenses have been bottom-3 in pass attempts in 5-of-6 seasons, so getting a new HC should be a major first step for Levis.
Especially since his new HC is former Bengals OC Brian Callahan. His offenses continually rank in the Top-7 of pass rate over expectation. In Burrow’s two full seasons, they ranked Top-7 in yards and TDs. Callahan has experience coaching Peyton Manning and Matthew Stafford, too. He certainly knows what it takes to be great, and if Levis has it, Callahan will squeeze it out of him.
Plus, the weapon upgrades are big. I have professed my love for Calvin Ridley as a Mid Round Must Target, but beyond him, Tyler Boyd should be a reliable slot weapon, too, and DeAndre Hopkins finished Top-3 in ESPN’s open score last year.
The team also drafted JC Latham, a beastly tackle, at No. 7 overall to help address one of the worst lines in the league. Levis is far from a guarantee to “be the guy,” but at least the team is putting everything in place around him to get a real evaluation of his potential.
Levis played like Drunk Jameis Winston last year, leading the NFL in “Hero-Worthy Throw Rate” (8%), as well as “Highest Turn Over Worthy Throw %” via FantasyPoints Data. He’s not afraid to sling it, and Callahan + these weapons will let him fire away at will. Whether he’s actually good? We don’t know. But the camp hype is fast and furious, and Levis’ set up is ripe to find out.
Levis is my QB23 in my 2024 Fantasy Football Rankings, +2 the ECR.
2024 Fantasy Football Sleepers: Wide Receivers
Kalil Shakir (ADP 126, WR51)
Vacated volume can be a huge precursor to fantasy breakouts. From the Texans last year (Nico & Tank), to the Lions the year before (ASB), when a ton of targets are up for grabs in an unclear pecking order, serious fantasy value can emerge.
When that volume happens to be coming from one of the best QBs in the game, it’s even more massive.
With the departures of Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis, the bills vacated: 3353 air yards (most), 73.3% air yard share (most), 317 targets (2nd), 54.7% target share (2nd), and a whopping 86.3% WR target share (most).
Additionally, Joe Brady has been named the full-time OC. He only has one full year calling plays, and it was with Teddy Bridgewater as his QB. Yet, in that season, he had THREE Top-25 WRs: Robbie Anderson (WR20), Curtis Samuel (WR23), and DJ Moore (WR25).
Currently, all Bills WRs are going outside the Top-40 WRs, and I love betting on all three of Keon Coleman, Curtis Samuel and Khalil Shakir.
Yet, Shakir, the cheapest in ADP, might be the safest of them all. He’s the only holdover WR to catch a pass from Allen! In fact, over the Bills’ final 10 games, Shakir outproduced Diggs – on 42 fewer targets!
Even if Shakir’s not as physically gifted or diverse as Coleman and Samuel, this “trust factor” is a key reason why Shakir is a strong bet to emerge as the top-guy here. Multiple outlets have had lines resembling the New York Upstate’s Matt Parrino, who wrote “Khalil Shakir, the guy who looked like the number one receiver in practice on Thursday and for most of this week. He looks like a superstar.”
Parrino emphasized a single-play that I think speaks volumes. I know, I know, we don’t want to overreact to ONE TRAINING CAMP play. Still, this is the type of play that can teach us a lot about a rapport and trust:
“Shakir caught a touchdown pass during 11-on-11 red zone team drills that was simply jaw-dropping. Shakir, working against All-Pro slot cornerback Taron Johnson, was up against superb coverage. Johnson had him under wraps, and it didn’t look like Allen had anywhere to throw the ball.
But Allen trusts Shakir. “Got a lot of faith in him,” Allen said after practice. “He’s a smart player (and) he’s much faster than you think. He’s got a very big catch radius for (a guy with) smaller arms, too. He finds ways to go up and get the ball.”
As soon as Allen unleashed the pass, Shakir somehow opened up the smallest amount of a window, located the ball, and made the contested catch against Johnson. The entire offense stormed over to Shakir to celebrate the score.
We also saw this trust during the 2023-24 playoffs, where Shakir became Allen’s top WR in the most crucial moments. Shakir racked up 3 rec, 31 yds, 1 TD (12. 1 FPs), and then 7 rec (9 tgt), 44 yds, 1 TD (17.4 FPs) across those two playoff appearances.
With Curtis Samuel suffering a foot injury, Shakir has had even more of an opportunity to establish himself as Allen’s top dog. He’s a great bet in Round 10+.
Shakir checks in at 109 Overall on my 2024 Fantasy Football Big Board, +22 ECR!
Andrei Iosivas (ADP 293, WR96!)
Somehow, despite oodles of positive buzz and a clear starting role in the Bengals explosive attack, Andrei “Yoshi” Iosivas is being largely disregarded in fantasy.
Yoshi is an athletic freak who, in his sophomore campaign, has taken over Tyler Boyd‘s slot role– good for 824 snaps last year.
Just look at Iosivas’ measurables:
At the time, Iosivas’ near-perfect score ranked 14th out of 3048 WR from 1987 to 2023! Yet, his absurd physical gifts are unsurprising, considering he was an All-American Heptathlon athlete at Princeton.
Iosivas barely played football til his final two years at Princeton, but once he was more developed, he thrived – Yoshi ultimately finished with the third most career touchdowns, sixth most receiving yards, and 12th most receptions in school history while tallying nearly 40% targets-per-route-run. I know, this is Princeton – it’s still nice to see production to support the athletic profile, especially from someone who hadn’t played football as his primary sport.
Iosivas has been taking the vast majority of slot reps during early training camp practices. He will have to fend off rookie Jermaine Burton, but if Iosivas can be Joe Burrow’s go-to slot receiver, he’ll have an opportunity to eat into the 259 vacated targets in Cincinnati.
“Andrei’s going to have a big year,” Joe Burrow told reporters. “I’m really excited about how he’s coming along. Wherever he ends up playing, whether it’s outside or inside, he’s able to do it all.”
Meanwhile, The Athletic’s Paul Dehner recently labeled Iosivas as Cincinnati’s “offensive star of camp.”
Lastly, Yoshi reportedly worked out with WRs coach Drew Lieberman all offseason. Lieberman has worked with Brandon Aiyuk, Evan Engram, Jakobi Meyers and Dontayvion Wicks. Yet the coach said Iosivas “made the fastest improvement of any players [he’s] ever had.”
At worst, Iosivas appears to be a clear No.3 in a strong passing-game. He should produce in this role alone, but also carries league-winning upside if something happens to Chase or Tee.
Going mostly undrafted, I expect Iosivas to be one of the most sought-after free agents this year. I have him at 171 overall on my 2024 Fantasy Football Big Board, a whopping +129 ECR!
Jalen Tolbert (ADP 247, WR82)
A prominent role in the Cowboys’ offense (No.1 in passing yds, total TDs, total points, and total plays in 2023) would put Jalen Tolbert in a rather favorable position for fantasy production. Based on a dominant Training Camp, Tolbert seems to have secured just that. He’s been labeled “clear front-runner to win the WR3 job… Tolbert has consistently made plays in camp and has built strong chemistry with star quarterback Dak Prescott.”
This seemed to spring from Prescott’s challenge to Tolbert to begin this offseason, and the hours of work put in as a result.
“We had a great conversation about roles,” Prescott told reporters. “I remember he particularly lays out what he thinks his role was and I just told him, ‘Your role is to go show that you can be a No. 1 receiver. At minimal, a No. 2 receiver.’
Tolbert took this to heart, working out with Dak on a daily basis, ala the Stafford-Kupp Breakfast club:
“Anytime I wanted to throw, he was there,” Prescott said.
Tolbert himself said:
“Hey, let’s go run routes at Dak’s house,’ and then we go in Dak’s backyard, and we’re working on whatever, a certain route a day, and just perfecting and going over and over, building that confidence and that trust, in, not only the routes, but also with the quarterback.”
These workouts and chemistry-building led Dak to predict a major breakout for Tolbert:
“Every year, the guy who I feel like I spend the most time with in the offseason goes and has a huge year,” Prescott said. “So, I don’t want to put that pressure on him, but we spent a lot of time together. Last year it was CeeDee…It’s usually been a young guy that anytime I send that text message out, they’re there. Doesn’t matter what time, what day. That was Tolbert this offseason.”
Throughout camp, Dak has seen stellar results: “He’s approached this camp with that intensity, with that mindset and he’s made exactly those kinda plays practice after practice. I know he’s given me tons of confidence in him and I know his confidence is growing and the play-callers have confidence in him to keep feeding him the ball.”
HC Mike McCarthy similarly sees a massive leap from Tolbert. When asked about the biggest improvement he’s seen from Tolbert, McCarthy replied: “Everything. I think he’s just really completed his game… I think JT’s taken a big, big step.”
OC Brian Schottenheimer added: “I see a player that’s matured, and a player that’s just ready for his opportunity.”
All the beat reporters are gushing on a regular basis, too:
“The Jalen Tolbert hype is real. It needs to carry over to regular-season games, but Tolbert has been the No. 2 receiver and drawn the attention of some of the top players in the Cowboys’ secondary, which is a talented group. Tolbert has responded by consistently getting open, and Dak Prescott has gone his way a lot. They haven’t always connected, but Tolbert has rarely dropped catchable passes and made a lot of great plays along the sidelines.”
In the absence of Lamb, Prescott has leaned upon Tolbert. They’re connecting on back-shoulder throws and timing routes that require trust, and Tolbert’s coming through.
It’s rare for a player to be as inefficient and flat-out bad as Tolbert has been through two seasons to then breakout. Yet, “Third Year Breakouts” used to be the norm, and this is an environment to absolutely foster some serious production if Tolbert proves to be truly ready. It’s a stab worth taking in your last rounds regardless.
Jalen Tolbert is at 169 Overall on my 2024 Fantasy Football Big Board, +109 ECR!
2024 Fantasy Football Sleepers: Running Backs
Rico Dowdle (128 ADP, RB44)
Success in fantasy football can often be found by leaning into uncertainty within elite offenses, especially with ambiguous backfields. Look at the Dolphins’ backfield last year. Those who embraced uncertainty and drafted Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane were rewarded in a big way.
We are looking at a similar situation in Dallas this year. No one is sure what to make of the backfield in one of the league’s best (No. 1 scoring offense in 2023) offenses. As a result, Dowdle features an incredibly cheap price. To this point, Dowdle has shined in camp and it would not be a shock if he emerges from the pack to lead the Cowboys’ backfield.
The Athletic predicts Dowdle will lead the Cowboys in rushing in 2024, calling him “the face of the committee.” Meanwhile, Ezekiel Elliott (a value pick in his own right) has looked awfully dusty in camp so far:
While I ultimately expect Zeke to dominate the GL touches and receiving work, Dowdle undoubtedly has the higher ceiling, and comes at a significantly reduced price. I have Dowdle at 113 Overall on my 2024 Fantasy Football Big Board, +22 ECR!
Jaylen Wright (140 ADP, RB47)
After Mike McDaniel traded up to select Jaylen Wright, I dove deep into my love for the speedsters fit with the Dolphins. To summarize:
We know McDaniels’ scheme is a goldmine for speedy RBs – Raheem Mostert & De’Von Achane finished RB3 & RB4 in FPPG respectively. Wright, meanwhile, brings 4.38 speed (98th percentile) and freakish athleticism to the table – his 9.82 RAS score ranks 37th of 1903 RBs all-time. In fact, Wright’s first five yards of his 40-yard dash were faster than Achane’s, showing you the type of acceleration this guy has.
Wright’s not just timed speed, either. The explosiveness absolutely pops on the tape and in games. A whopping 26% (30 total) of his rushes went for 10+ yards, while 19 runs went for 15+. He topped over 1,000 yards on just 137 carries–insane! This equated to a whopping 7.4 YPC, with an equally impressive 4.53 yards coming after contact.
Once he finds a crease, Wright is gone. This is absolutely perfect, considering McDaniels and the Dolphins offense specializes in creating space for RBs in their 49ers-inspired wide-zone scheme.
No, the path to playing time isn’t immediate. But both Mostert and Achane have dealt with injuries in their career, while Mostert also will be 32 this season. If just one gets nipped by the injury imp, Wright will vault into a timeshare of the best run-game in the NFL. He is my favorite handcuff after Blake Corum.
He’s already flashing, too. After being a Training Camp standout, Wright ripped 10 carries for 55 yards and a TD in his first NFL action. Wright is one of the highest-upside handcuffs in fantasy, and he has “multiple paths” to reaching this potential.
Wright is my 122nd player on 2024 Fantasy Football Big Board, +44 ECR!
Bucky Irving (169 ADP, RB56)
Rachaad White is fresh off the second-most touches in the league… despite not being very good, at least as a runner. White’s success rate and yards over expectation were towards the bottom of the league, and his massive 270 carry load was likely a result of “nothing else was there,” rather than an indication of his talent.
Enter Bucky Irving. Indeed, his combine was dreadful. Yet, his play speed was much better – Irving clocked the fourth fastest MPH time on the field last year. Since 2022, Irving has forced a missed tackle on 17.2% of his collegiate rushes, which ranked ahead of Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Trey Benson.
Ultimately, Irving produced 2,950 YFS and 21 total TDs. He was particularly deadly on outside runs, which project to be a staple of new OC Liam Coen’s Rams-Inspired attack.
In fact, Brianna Dix of the team’s official site reported Irving “looks like an ideal fit for the versatile run scheme within new offensive coordinator Liam Coen’s system.”
In his recent visit to Bucs camp, SI’s Albert Breer even compared Irving to Kyren Williams:
“One area where I’d see new offensive coordinator Liam Coen having an early impact would be in the run game. Coen has shown how meticulous he is in that area, with two stints under Sean McVay in Los Angeles serving as his classroom for learning the Shanahan zone system. What’ll help in his cause is the state of the offensive line—with Tristan Wirfs now entrenched on the left side, Luke Goedeke taking another big step toward becoming a top-shelf right tackle, and Graham Barton arriving as a middle-of-the-fairway first-round pick at center. And the backfield’s gotten a boost too, with rookie Bucky Irving bringing a physical, one-cut-and-go style of running to what starter Rachaad White and second-year man Sean Tucker have established. Irving’s looked like he’ll play the position, in that scheme, a little like Kyren Williams has for the Rams, as a guy who reads and hits seams fast.“
White is truly elite as a pass-catcher, but Irving is no slouch here, either. He led all FBS RBs with 56 receptions (on 58 targets), ultimately hauling in 95 passes across three years. Irving could push for rushing work from day one, and has an every-down skill set if he’s thrust into any starting duty.
Irving is 146th on my 2024 Fantasy Football Big Board, +58 ADP!
2024 Fantasy Football Sleepers: Tight Ends
Taysom Hill (ADP 158, TE18)
If you don’t go Elite TE, you basically rely on “TD or Bust” options. Why not go for a guy who can TRULY spike in Taysom Hill?
He’s the TE7 and TE12 in FPPG the past two seasons, ranking 2nd and 2nd in TE TDs the past two years. He has been a Top-12 TE in 50% of his games across the past two seasons, which includes a 34.3 and 22.4 FP spike, too:
Perhaps Hill’s volatility will improve in the new 49ers-inspired Klint Kubiak offense. They’ve reportedly been using Hill at RB, FB, TE, QB and WR, and he’s been one of the more featured players in this diverse role. This shone through this preseason so far:
Given Kendre Miller‘s inability to stay healthy, Hill may actually be the RB2 on this roster. He took 5 carries for 21 yards and a TD in Preseason Week 2, and actually has tied Kamara for goalline carries the past two seasons (30). When you’re rolling around in this mud, go for the guy who has legit 2+ TD upside any given week.
Jonnu Smith (ADP 209, TE25)
Jonnu Smith had been my clear-cut, no-brainer, no.1 Late Round TE target. I still love his ceiling, but reports that Durham Smythe is splitting first-team reps is… annoying. Smith should be able to beat him out in the end, but if it’s more of a time-share, Smith’s floor and ceiling will take a big hit.
Let’s dive into that ceiling, though. True, Dolphins TEs rank dead last in total targets (120) since Mike McDaniel got to town back in 2022. Yet, who has he had to throw to? Durham Smythe? C’mon!
When asked about his lowly TE usage and how Jonnu fits in, McDaniels himself said, “Some people think that just ‘whatever it was, it will always be…there’s opportunities there, for sure.”
McDaniels is an absolute master at maximizing speed in space. Perfect. Jonnu was responsible for the top-two ball carrier speeds at TE last year. In fact, he was the only TE to hit 20+ MPH all year!
Another strength of McDaniels’ is his screen game, and the way he puts players in advantageous spots to generate YAC. Incredibly, Jonnu averaged second-most yards on screen passes (12.6) in the ENTIRE NFL!
McDaniels called Jonnu “a fast, dynamic football player… a tonality, a master of YAC — not only because of speed, but because of a mindset.”
Yes, Smith will be well-behind Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle for targets, and probably the RBs too. Still, he will undoubtedly rip off some monster big plays, and find a ton of space with defenses accounting for the other two target hogs.
Jonnu clocks in at 175 overall on my Fantasy Football Big Board, a whopping +62 ECR.
If you enjoyed this content and would like to support The Wolf and a small fantasy-brand like us, check out The Wolf’s 2024 Fantasy Football Guide! He gives plenty of more 2024 Fantasy Football sleepers, and so much more on the perfect Draft Strategy to feast in 2024 Fantasy Football!
