The team at Roto Street Journal delved into the highly anticipated 2024 NFL Draft class through a SuperFlex 2024 Dynasty Rookie Mock Draft. With the prospect of a standout receiver class, coupled with a rich quarterback pool and an overlooked group of running backs, this talented collection of skill-position players could be a game-changer for enhancing your dynasty team, provided you have the resources to capitalize.
2024 Dynasty Rookie Mock Draft Results
Round 1 Superflex Rookie Draft Picks
- Caleb Williams
- Marvin Harrison
- Malik Nabers
- Jayden Daniels
- Drake Maye
- Rome Odnze
- JJ McCarthy
- Brock Bowers
- Brian Thomas
- Xavier Worthy
- Jonathan Brooks
- Ladd McConkey
Round 2 Superflex Rookie Draft Picks
- Ricky Pearsall
- Bo Nix
- Trey Benson
- Keon Coleman
- Adonai Mitchell
- Roman Wilson
- Troy Franklin
- MarShawn Lloyd
- Michael Penix
- Jaylen Wright
- Xavier Legette
- Blake Corum
Round 3 Superflex Rookie Draft Picks
- Ja’Lynn Polk
- Ben Sinnott
- Jermaine Burton
- Audric Estime
- Malachi Corley
- Jalen McMillan
- Javon Baker
- Ray Davis
- Kimani Vidal
- Bucky Irving
- Will Shipley
- Ja’Tavion Sanders
Round 4 Superflex Rookie Draft Picks
- Cade Stover
- Isaac Guerendo
- Spencer Rattler
- Theo Johnson
- Brendan Rice
- Braelon Allen
- Jacob Cowing
- Devontez Walker
- Malik Washington
- Tyrone Tracy
- Luke McCaffrey
- Jordan Travis
For more 2024 Dynasty Rookie Draft content and why we picked who we did, check out our “How to draft” from the…
1.01 | 1.02 | 1.03 | 1.04 | 1.05 | 1.06 | 1.07 | 1.08 | 1.09 | 1.10 | 1.11 | 1.12
Let’s explore our overall perspective on the 2024 dynasty rookie class, including the players we’re aiming to acquire and those we’re steering clear of, as well as our comprehensive analysis of the Roto Street Journal 2024 Dynasty Rookie Mock Draft.
What is your general take on the 2024 Rookie class? How does it inform your drafting?
Wolf: The 2024 Rookie Class was lauded for its quarterback and receiver talents, and many landed in absolutely perfect situations for both immediate and long-term value. In SuperFlex, I don’t want to leave without one of the “Big Four” (Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye, JJ McCarthy) or even Bo Nix unless I’m stacked at the position—if that means trading up, so be it.
Should I miss on QB and in later rounds, I hope to stock my Dynasty shelves with as many wideouts as possible, aiming to land the ones who appreciate in value the most in the coming years (i.e. Jermaine Burton, Ricky Pearsall). While I think the RB class as a whole is underrated, the landing spots for the vast majority create a tough runway to immediate success – and by the time these four-year contracts are up, we might have only 2-3 RBs who’ve had a chance to flash what they can do. This worries me.
Duck: Initial analysis about the depth of talent in the draft may have been unfounded. It’s also possible that fantasy managers find that ever-valuable flex-worthy player that stabilizes rosters and makes good rosters champions.
At wide receiver, three sure-fire, no-brainer, top-flight talents expect to translate seamlessly to the NFL game. There are two running backs I’d love to leave the draft with, one that might end up being the steal of the draft, and a bunch of plug-and-play guys that might be able to keep teams afloat for a week.
The draft’s real juice comes from the quarterback position upside. Two quarterbacks are locked in early for dynasty rookie drafts, especially SuperFlex drafts. Williams and Daniels project to be the next Andrew Luck and RGIII type of rookies. Hopefully, Daniels will not end up sharing the same fate as RGIII, whose career was shortened by a whirlwind of unfortunate injuries.
Maye drips in elite quarterback talent and upside, while McCarthy is a slept-on arm talent that was drafted to a LOADED offensive wagon. Attacking the QB position or the top three WRs in the first round is the idea move in my opinion. Otherwise, look to try and trade back and allocate additional resources, as there are plenty of alluring second-round and beyond dart throws.
Trader Tim: I approach this year’s rookie draft like every year. Inevitably, there will be highly drafted players who we think will be great that bust, and there will be guys who we didn’t expect much from that pop-off. While there are obvious traits you can look for to identify who the hits and misses will be, I think the key, as always, lies in knowing the coaches and how we think they will use the talent they acquired. Looking at overall positions, it certainly seems that this year has more incoming talent at the QB and WR positions and is a little lighter at RB and TE.
Ultimately, how you approach any rookie draft has to be based on the context of your team’s needs. Every dynasty team is in a different spot and has different goals. In a Superflex league, it makes sense to go after a QB early, but I would caution everybody to remember the past with this.
We discussed the immense QB talent a few years back in 2018 and saw five QBs taken in the first round. Josh Allen was considered a project, and Lamar Jackson was exciting, but the last of the five taken. The other three? I guess Baker Mayfield will be rosterable at least five years later, but it’s been mostly down, not up for him.
Why does all of this matter? There were six QBs taken in the first round this year, and you should expect at least half of them to be a bust. I can tell you who I think is going to work out (Jayden Daniels and Bo Nix are my guys) and who I would fade (Drake Maye and Michael Penix), but the reality is that none of us will really know until it plays out. If you take one of these QBs early, make sure you love the situation they are in or look to a different position if you don’t.
In general though, draft talent over needs unless it’s super close, then err on the side of your needs to ensure a complete team.
Tanner (Smoov): In the midst of the 2024 NFL Draft buzz, the spotlight shines on three standout wide receivers: Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers, and Rome Odunze. However, with a keen eye on bolstering the quarterback position, attention shifts to the promising prospects primed for elite situations.
While the Ohio State receiving product stands out as an exception, the focus remains on enhancing the quarterback room. Caleb Williams and J.J. McCarthy are two quarterbacks set up in elite environments with a plethora of weapons, while Drake Maye offers undeniable potential to any team’s lineup at the position.
As the first round progresses and quarterbacks become scarce, the strategy pivots towards securing talented wide receivers positioned for success. While the draft was once perceived as top-heavy, recent assessments unveil a deeper talent pool, particularly among wide receivers.
Though the draft boasts an array of skilled wideouts, the top quarterbacks command intrigue and offer solid foundations for their respective teams. Given the depth and quality of this year’s quarterback class, overlooking the opportunity to acquire one of these quarterbacks in the first round could prove detrimental.
DLo: This draft has a player for every type of team. Tanking because you have no quarterbacks? Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels are here to save you. A contending team or defending champ that picks near the end of the first round? A potential RB1 to slot into your lineup with Jonathan Brooks or target vacuum Ladd McConkey is typically available. An up-and-coming alpha WR in Rome Odunze can also be had in the middle of the first round.
Flexibility seems to be the theme of this year’s blue-chip class. As someone who took over an orphaned team a few years prior, I tried to trade for as many first-rounders as possible in this year’s class. There is potential to go from league basement dweller to playoff contender in one year’s time if you’ve accumulated enough capital for this draft class.
MOH: The most interesting feature of this draft class to me has to be the depth at the WR and QB positions. With six quarterbacks selected in the first round and 16 wide receivers selected in the top 100 picks, there are plenty of options for rosters with needs at either position. Everyone would love to get their hands on the big two at QB in Williams or Daniels or one of the top three receivers in Harrison, Nabers, or Odunze. Even if you don’t have the draft capital to select these players, leaving your draft with some exciting talent at both positions is still possible.
The depth of these positions makes it much easier to sit back and let the draft board come to you. Unless a roster desperately needs a game-changer at one of these positions, there is not much pressure to move up and grab a stud. There is a multitude of players in the late first round or later that can make meaningful impacts as rookies. If you can weed through the busts, it’s very realistic to build out WR and QB rooms with later picks in this draft.
Chase Marquette-Gaines: The 2024 rookie class seemed to get the level of hype that the 2023 class originally did two years ago. And I’m mostly buying that hype, leading me to believe that fantasy starters at the end of round 1 in rookie drafts are easier to come by than other years.
In this piece, you’ll find RSJ writers on both sides of the fence about whether or not it’s wise to bet on a player who looks buried on their NFL team’s depth chart as a rookie…I generally like to bet on guys whose value drops for that reason. That adds another layer of depth that makes even drafting dart throws after round 2 more exciting than in other years.
Snowdeal: My general take on the 2024 draft was that this class was loaded with talent in the first round, particularly at the QB and WR positions. I knew going in that the “Big Four” (Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye, JJ McCarthy) would be a priority in all of my drafts. With JJ McCarthy landing in Minnesota, I can’t help but target one of them in the first round if I’m needy at the position.
Heading into the later rounds of the draft, I’m targeting high-upside WRs (Troy Franklin, Jermaine Burton). These types of players have the chance to be flex players for years to come and help fill out a complete dynasty roster. I do think this RB class has the chance to surprise critics. However, the landing spots for many left me with more fear than hope.
Keegs: With the first 14 picks of last month’s draft being offensive players and 10 being skill position players, this could be the most fantasy-relevant rookie class in some time. I think all of the first-round receivers are insanely talented, and given how many similarities there are between college and pro offenses these days, most – if not all – of them should be in a position to contribute immediately. Marvin Harrison, Jr. has obviously been the most hyped-up of the bunch, but I love the landing spots for Rome Odunze and Xavier Worthy as well and would love either on my roster as they enter their rookie seasons.
At QB, you’ve got multiple guys who figure to take over the starting role on Day One, and while I think Bo Nix was a huge reach at 12, I’d be happy with any of the other top QBs on my dynasty roster. Yes, even Michael Penix. Kirk Cousins isn’t getting any younger, and I loved Penix’s game in college, so even though it may take a couple of years, he should get his shot, and I like his odds to put up some good numbers when he does.
In the mid-to-late rounds, I’d love to end up with a running back like Blake Corum or Audric Estime, who played in big games at the college level and landed in decent spots with the Rams and Broncos, respectively. I’ll also keep an eye out for Jordan Travis and hold onto him as Aaron Rodgers continues to inch closer to a psychedelic-filled retirement.
Who is someone going in Round 1 you are praying to get? Why?
Wolf: JJ McCarthy. It’s tough not to write any of “The Big 3 WRs,” but in the middle-to-end of Round 1, I could not be more in love with McCarthy’s fit in Minnesota. Though he rarely needed to flash it at Michigan, McCarthy possesses all the necessary arm talent to attack every layer of the field. More importantly, he has the IQ, mental toughness, and decision-making intangibles to thrive in Kevin O’Connell’s pass-first offense.
The Vikings were hellbent on landing a rookie QB to extend Justin Jefferson, so I imagine JJ will be hurling to a crew of JJ, Jordan Addison, and an ahead-of-schedule TJ Hockenson for years to come. Shoot, Nick Mullens tossed over 300 yards in three-of-four games as a starter, including 411 and 396, finishing as the QB10 across his starts. With these weapons, in this scheme, JJ will be a weekly 300+ yard, 2+ TD machine for years to come. That’s the type of stabilizing force I crave in SuperFlex Dynasty.
Duck: Malik Nabers. While the rest of the fantasy community salivated over Marvin Harrison Jr., I peered beyond the fog of the narrative and pushed all of my chips in on who I say is the best wide receiver in the class.
Nabers profiles as a hybrid between Odell Beckham Jr. and Ja’Marr Chase.
For comparison’s sake, I see MHJ favorably compared to Andre Johnson, who is a sure-fire hall-of-famer in his own right. But if I’m building my team, I’m targeting Nabers, even with the Giants offense still being held back by Danny Dimes.
In my opinion, Nabers has the best cutting and explosive play-making ability of any player in the class. Period.
Shawn Siegle, a RotoViz contributor, said that Nabers provides unparalleled flexibility and epic upside. Nabers outclasses Harrison and Odunze at creating on underneath targets, YAC on intermediate targets, and efficiency on deep targets. In fact, Siegle highlighted how Nabers excels in traffic, completing tough catches, and evading tacklers.
After seeing how Stefon Diggs blossomed into a lethal fantasy force with Brian Daboll, I’m more than willing to put my stock in Nabers, despite Jones’ lack of above-average quarterback competency.
Trader Tim: Marvin Harrison Jr. The obvious answer is that I would love to get Marvin Harrison Jr. in all rookie drafts this year. As that will not be an option for most people, my runner-up plan would be to end up with either Jonathan Brooks or Trey Benson. I think both have the talent to be starting quality RBs as soon as this year (pending Brooks’ injury), and after the big 3 WRs, I think some of the WRs you can get in rounds 2 and 3 have as much upside to hit as the WR going in round 1 (again, after the big 3).
DLo: Trey Benson or Jonathon Brooks. Outside of the obvious big three wide receivers and elite QBs, I’d love to end up with one of the top 2 running backs in this class in Trey Benson or Jonathan Brooks. The fantasy community as a whole seems to be quite bearish on this RB class, but there is definitely a scenario where these two guys pop for your squad.
The Cardinals O has been overhauled with the return of Kyler, and the additions of Marvin Harrison Jr., and Benson. I know James Conner is still “RB1”, but being another year older is a notch on the belt for Father Time. I think we see Benson sooner rather than later, and will provide some extra juice for this Cardinals O.
Tanner (Smoov): Drake Maye. Caleb Williams, the newly minted quarterback for the Chicago Bears, stands out as the undisputed leader of the 2024 Rookie Class – boasting unparalleled promise and potential. However, amidst the hype surrounding Williams, another quarterback boasts a strong profile: Drake Maye. Despite receiving less attention from the NFL community, Maye’s performance metrics paint a compelling picture of his talent and potential impact on the field.
A closer look at Football Insights’ analysis reveals Maye’s exceptional performance in key metrics, particularly his big-time throw rate, which exceeds 8% on an average of nearly 45 dropbacks per start—placing him in a league of his own.
In comparison, fellow prospect Jayden Daniels posted a big-time throw rate of approximately 4.5% on an average of nearly 35 dropbacks per start. His ability to excel despite less favorable circumstances sets Maye apart further. Daniels benefited from throwing to first-round talents like Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr. – while Maye’s top receiver, Devontez Walker, was a fourth-round selection.
Maye also faced challenges with drops from his pass-catchers, notably experiencing an 8.2% drop rate—higher than any other top quarterback prospect in the draft or any full-time starting NFL quarterback. This statistic gains significance when considering its impact on Maye’s completion percentage. Scoutd estimates that a lower drop rate could have resulted in an additional 35 catches for Maye in 2023 alone, potentially boosting his completion percentage from 63.3% to an impressive 71.5%.
In light of these factors, Maye emerges as a compelling choice, particularly for the New England Patriots as they navigate the post-Belichick era under a new coaching regime. While Williams commands attention with his undeniable talent, Maye’s under-the-radar profile and ability to thrive in adverse conditions position him as a hidden gem with the potential to make a significant impact at the NFL level.
Snowdeal: JJ McCarthy. I agree with Wolf. I am in love with McCarthy’s fit in Minnesota. I’ve drafted him in two rookie drafts already and missed out on him late in a startup draft. The talent surrounding him gives him instant fantasy value. Looking back to last year, Nick Mullens was a QB1 (LOL) during his stretch as a starter. QB is a priority in the Superflex Dynasty, and I am praying that I can snag McCarthy when available.
MOH: Trey Benson. Although he is not a Round 1 selection in every rookie draft, Trey Benson is a player with whom I am looking to leave drafts. As most others were, I was impressed with Benson’s talent. His contact balance and burst after cutting are very apparent. While I was interested in Benson prior to the draft, I am now very excited about his prospects in Arizona.
Benson has a path to be the “1A” in this backfield as early as this season. James Conner is a quality veteran but can’t seem to stay healthy, missing 4+ games in six of his seven seasons. There is certainly an outcome where Benson takes over for an ailing Conner and never looks back.
Even if this doesn’t happen in 2024, Conner is set to be a free agent after this season and Benson should have the opportunity to be the featured back in Arizona. With an offense that features Kyler Murray and budding stars in Marvin Harrison, Trey McBride, and Benson, this will be an offense I’m looking to invest in for the long term.
Chase M-G: Brock Bowers. This one is pretty specific to how my roster is constructed. If I’m still even remotely searching for my lockdown tight end, I’m making moves to ensure I can get Brock Bowers. Even with Michael Mayer still, in the fold in Las Vegas, Bowers fits the mold of a player who you can lock in long-term to a position that fantasy players know all too well is one that can derail multiple games and championship hopes if you’re fumbling with inconsistency.
Keegs: Xavier Worthy. The Texas product is going late in the first round in most rookie drafts, and I think he’s a steal at that spot. Worthy is a small receiver, and I worry that he’ll try to beef up and potentially see an impact to his 4.21 speed, but I trust Andy Reid’s track record of getting production out of undersized receivers. With the league’s best QB throwing him the ball and a great deal of uncertainty still surrounding Rashee Rice, Worthy could be the best rookie in fantasy when the 2024 NFL season is all said and done.
Who is someone going in Round 1 you don’t believe should be? Why?
Wolf: Brian Thomas Jr. I have nothing against Brian Thomas, the prospect. He’s a 99th-percentile athlete capable of shredding a defense deep like no other. He’s going to have some monster blow-ups, no doubt. I question his path to consistent, reliable value, both in 2024 and in future years.
Doug Pederson has always loved to spread the wealth, and it’s hard to expect Thomas, who saw 75% of his yards come on only two routes, to be any more consistent than Calvin Ridley. This was fine in Best Ball, where Ridley spiked for six Top-12 WR games of 20+ FPs. But when not exploding, Ridley was never even Top-36 otherwise, with eight weeks below even 5.5 FPs. I think Thomas will be similarly maddening and not quite the WR1-2 anchor his price suggests he should be.
Duck: Xavier Legette. I’ll keep this one brief. What is it about a fifth-year breakout that failed to crack 200 receiving yards or even 20 receptions in the four previous years of college makes people believe he will translate well to the NFL game?
In fact, Football Insights showed that Legette has the worst QBR when targeted vs. zone for round 1-2 WRs since 2019. That’s worse than drum roll, please, Jalen Reagor and Jonathan Mingo, to name a few.
Legette joins a long list of busts and gadget slot receivers in the bottom left quadrant and he’s someone I’m not willing to even dip my fantasy toe into the rookie draft waters.
Snowdeal: Xavier Legette or Ricky Pearsall. I haven’t really had a strong opinion on this throughout my rookie drafts. I think most of the time, I agree with how the first round has shaken out in each of my drafts thus far. I haven’t seen it, but if anyone reaches for Xavier Legette or Ricky Pearsall like the Niners and Panthers did, then I’d be shocked. Both prospects don’t project well based on their production profiles.
Trader Tim: Drake Maye. I wouldn’t be interested in touching Drake Maye in the first round. Even in Superflex. QB is all about team context, system fit, and the weapons around you. A guy like Caleb Williams (who I have some concerns about) is coming into the best possible situation for a rookie QB, maybe ever. As a result, while I question his ability to be a leader and a long-term star QB in the league, his surrounding players are too good to pass on him.
Drake Maye might have the talent, but he has the worst supporting cast of any of the first-round quarterbacks this year (although Michael Penix Jr. is in a worse situation for obvious reasons). I have too many visions of Mac Jones 2.0 with Maye that I won’t be the guy to take that chance.
DLo: Jonathan Brooks. Even though he was my selection, I have to say Jonathan Brooks. Coming off the torn ACL, and going to a Carolina team that looked absolutely devoid of an offense last year, I think I’d rather have Trey Benson. Especially if I’m not reliant upon this pick to slot into an RB1 or 2 on my roster out of the gate (even though I think Benson will be a top 15 guy by season’s end).
The talent is obviously there with Brooks, but with all things being equal, give me the guy in a better (for now) offense in Benson. If you have a late first, maybe you can trade down to the 2.03 or so, pick up something extra for your squad, and grab Benson.
Tanner (Smoov): Ricky Pearsall. The San Francisco 49ers made waves in the NFL Draft by selecting Ricky Pearsall with the 31st pick in the first round, sparking intrigue about his potential impact and the pick’s value. Rumors swirl about the team possibly exploring trades involving Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk, adding another layer of speculation to Pearsall’s role within the offense. Despite his selection, some analysts question the decision, citing concerns about the perceived reach for Pearsall and the high cost associated with a first-round pick.
Analyzing Pearsall’s collegiate performance provides additional context. According to PlayerProfiler, he boasted a College Dominator Rating of 26.8% (44th percentile) and a College Target Share of 22.8% (64th percentile), indicating a solid but not exceptional presence within his college team’s passing game.
Pearsall’s breakout age of 21 falls within the 36th percentile, suggesting a slightly later emergence compared to other prospects. On the field, Pearsall’s numbers tell a consistent story of improvement, with receiving yardage climbing from 580 in 2021 to 965 in 2023, showcasing his development over his college career. However, some analysts remain skeptical of the value proposition presented by Pearsall’s draft position, expressing reservations about his potential impact relative to the cost of acquiring him.
Interestingly, attention also shifts to Pearsall’s teammate, Jacob Cowing, who was chosen by the 49ers in the fourth round. Despite being selected later, Cowing’s profile is intriguing—particularly his elite speed showcased by a blazing 4.38-second 40-yard dash (95th percentile) and two seasons with over 1,000 receiving yards. Cowing is a potentially overlooked gem with significant upside, overshadowed by the spotlight on his higher-drafted teammate.
As the offseason unfolds and training camp approaches, the true impact of Pearsall’s selection—and the potential of Cowing—will become clearer. This will offer insight into the 49ers’ draft strategy and the dynamics of their receiving corps moving forward. Regardless of draft capital, spending a first-round pick on Ricky Pearsall is a reach.
Chase M-G: Bo Nix. I’ve mentioned that I think the odds of getting a quality fantasy starter at the end of round 1 is better than most years, and so in this case, it’s hard to pick a player commonly going in that area.
I’ll also generally hear a case for common early second-round guys going at the end of the first, besides possibly Bo Nix. That isn’t an indictment on Nix, as much as it is a question about Sean Payton.
I’m becoming increasingly concerned that he’s too committed to turning the Broncos into his peak Saints teams. There’s a balance between acquiring players that fit your ideal offensive system, and acquiring players to mold your system around their individual strengths. If Payton’s too concerned with the former, that thing in Denver could crash and burn so hard that the team has to move to St. Louis.
MOH: Jonathon Brooks. Others have discussed it here, but the first round has a fair amount of depth this year. There is enough depth to fill out the entire round with quality talents and nobody has a particularly egregious price. All of this to say is that nobody is going in Round 1, which I really dislike. However, I am nervous about Jonathon Brooks. Brooks is coming off a major knee injury and joining an offense that showed no life in 2023. There is a real outcome where this offense never figures things out, and Brooks is in a nightmare situation. Even with these concerns, Brooks looked like a high-quality running back before his injury, and I am willing to bet on his upside at the back of Round 1.
Keegs: Jonathan Brooks. The current ADPs for rookie drafts are all pretty spot on, although Jonathon Brooks makes me nervous despite Carolina’s efforts to bulk up their offensive line in free agency. His recent knee injury casts some doubt on how much he’ll produce in his rookie season and brings out some durability concerns as well. And despite being a solid pass catcher in college, can Bryce Young take advantage of that?
Who was the best pick of the entire 2024 Dynasty Rookie Mock Draft?
Wolf: Jermaine Burton (3.3): I was torn between Jermaine Burton and Ja’Lynn Polk (3.1), and in general, the top of Round 3 seems to be a nice sweet spot for WR value. I also really liked Keon Coleman at the 2.4 and hate to give The Duck any credit… but I LOVED where he got Burton. Yes, he has to contend with two Alphas in Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins as a rookie. Yet, the Bengals ranked third-highest (70%) in 3-WR sets, while Tyler Boyd and his 98 targets are now gone, leaving Burton a healthy slice of volume even as a rookie. When Higgins departs next offseason, look out.
Matt Harmon is among my favorite WR evaluators, and he ranked Burton as a first-round talent, as well as his Dynasty WR8. He charted Burton with a 75% success rate vs. man coverage a 77.3% success rate vs. press coverage, both among the Top-5 prospects. It’s not shocking that all Burton did in college was lead Georgia in receiving as a sophomore, then back-to-back years pacing Alabama. With a cleaner off-field record, Burton may have been the No.4 WR in this class. Getting that upside, tied to Joe Burrow, this late? Impeccable. Nice pick, Duck.
Duck: MarShawn Lloyd (2.8): Giving MOH any credit makes my skin crawl. But I respect people who will think outside of the box and dive deeper than the box scores and consensus reports show. MOH definitely doesn’t let anyone do his thinking for him.
I suspect he saw Josh Jacobs look like he was playing the position while wearing concrete shoes last season. AJ Dillon is a mammoth of a man who refuses to live up to his second-round draft capital.
Lloyd leads the 2024 class in yards created per attempt, forcing a missed tackle on 43% of his rush attempts. In fact, 33% of his attempts went for at least 5 yards. His biggest red flag could also be his greatest virtue. He toted the rock more than 10 times in only four of his 11 games (116 total in 2024), but he showcased his excellent start/stop acceleration and terrific vision in the gap-blocking scheme USC deployed. His skill set is a perfect match for Matt LaFleur’s offensive scheme.
What is that old saying regarding history? Those who don’t learn from their history are doomed to repeat it? Well, history suggests not betting on a running back who was wildly inefficient (-30.8 fantasy points over expectation) and topped 4 YPC in only three of his 13 games.
Lloyd could easily supplant Jacobs, especially given his history of durability concerns, and be a popular RB option in 2025 and beyond. Good pick, MOH.
Snowdeal: Michael Penix Jr. (2.09): QB is king in Superflex, and snagging a top-ten pick at 2.09 seems quite impressive. Those who waited on Love (I know it’s not the same) are quite happy with their decision. Kirk Cousins is returning from a major injury in the late stage of his career, and if Penix steps in at any point this season, he may prove haters wrong.
The Falcons are loaded with weapons, and with a new regime, they might actually utilize them to the best of their ability. I know he may sit for 1-3 years, but the upside for a late second-round pick being a starting Superflex player has me snagging him in the late second of any draft.
Trader Tim: Kimani Vidal (3.9): Most late-third-round picks don’t have the chance to develop into a top-20 RB as early as the start of the season, but Kimani Vidal does. This team is going to run a lot. Jim Harbaugh is tailoring the Dollar Store Ravens with a running back room straight from the Baltimore scrap heap.
That said, somebody will run the ball there, and it will happen often. I can’t trust J.K. Dobbins right now with the major injury history. Gus Edwards is fine, but he’s just a guy. If Vidal shows any spark, he could have a shot at 200 carries or more this year. That kind of upside in late round 3 is gold.
Tanner (Smoov): Keon Coleman (2.4): The recent trade of Stefon Diggs to the Texans left many Buffalo fans puzzled and speculating about the team’s next move. While names like Tee Higgins and Brandon Aiyuk circulated in trade discussions, Keon Coleman emerged as a promising solution for the Bills’ receiving corps.
Heading into the 2023 NCAAF season, Coleman boasted an impressive track record, averaging 92.0 receiving yards per game against ranked teams the previous year, placing him among the top college wide receivers, according to Fusue. Despite being fourth in this metric behind future stars Marvin Harrison Jr., Jeremiah Hunter, and Emeka Egbuka, Coleman’s performance showcased his potential to become a standout receiver in the NFL.
Standing at 6’3 and weighing 213 lbs., Coleman possesses the physical attributes necessary to excel as a deep threat. His film highlights exceptional hands and athleticism, making him a formidable force on the field. Additionally, Coleman’s impressive college dominator rating (81st percentile), target share (70th percentile), and breakout age (82nd percentile) indicate his readiness to make an impact at just 20 years old.
With the versatile Curtis Samuel likely filling the gadget role for the Bills, Coleman steps into the spotlight as the team’s new go-to receiver for big plays and jump balls. His selection in the mid-second round of rookie drafts is considered a steal, as he offers the Bills a dynamic weapon to elevate their offense.
MOH: Jermaine Burton (3.3): Without repeating too much of what Wolf had to say, I’ll give my two cents on why I like the Burton pick from Duck. It’s pretty simple, actually. The talent of Burton is clear, and he was considered to be a first-round talent by most draft analysts. He will require some development, but his flashes of athleticism and play-making ability paint a picture of a player with a very high ceiling.
Off field issues led to Burton slipping to Day 2 where the Bengals selected him in Round 3. This is a jackpot landing spot for a receiver like Burton. With no clear WR3 and Tee Higgins set to leave in 2023, there is a clear path for Burton to be one of Joe Burrow’s top targets. What’s not to love about that in Round 3?
DLo: Jayden Daniels (1.4): Sure, this is low-hanging fruit in picking the consensus QB2 of the class, but this is a steal at 4. Konami Code quarterbacks are worth their weight in gold in superflex formats, and Daniels has all the up, up, down, down left, right, left, right B, A, B, A, select (2 players) start to his game.
The weapons are there in Terry Mac and Jahan Dotson for Daniels to put up respectable numbers through the air, as well as a strong running game to work off of at the goalline in Brian Robinson Jr. and Austin Ekeler. I see a lot of play-action to Robinson with Daniels rolling out for walk-in scores in the future. It would be very difficult to pass on Nabers or Harrison at 1.04 should they fall. Still, Daniels is a fine consolation, especially with other guys falling into the second round who could pop (Keon Coleman, AD Mitchell, etc..).
Chase M-G: Jermaine Burton (3.03): Quite the 180 from the Duck, whose third-round rookie pick in the RSJ Dynasty League last season employed the services of Kayshon Boutte.
For such an unquestioned talent in Burton, these scenarios are always intriguing when off-field issues convince all 32 NFL front offices, full of complete staffs of people theoretically much, much smarter than the rest of us peasants, to skip said talent for a full round or two.
Are dart throw picks mainly about chasing upside? Yes. Did I draft Ja’Lynn Polk in this mock two picks before Burton while admitting Burton has the better long-term upside? Also yes. But I also believe Polk’s game is the kind that can keep him on the field, earning snaps and opportunities. Burton’s off-field game may have already lost him a ton of snaps out of the gate and paralleling the cliché of “the best ability is availability,” time will ultimately tell if Burton can refrain from shooting himself in the foot in the pros (not that that kept Plaxico Burress off the field).
Keegs: Adonai Mitchell (2.05): I like Jermaine Burton at 3.03 a lot, but in the interest of going elsewhere than my fellow RSJers, I’ll say Adonai Mitchell at 2.05. He slid further than most expected and ended up in a solid landing spot with the Colts, who hope to keep Anthony Richardson healthy this year and don’t have a ton of competition at receiver aside from Michael Pittman Jr. Mitchell put up solid numbers in college despite never being his team’s true #1 option, which bodes well for his current situation as well.
Who was the worst pick of this entire 2024 Dynasty Rookie Mock Draft?
Wolf: Audric Estime (3.4): I didn’t love Troy Franklin at the 2.7. Brian Thomas (1.9) over Xavier Worthy (1.10) or Ladd McConkey (1.12) had me scratching my head. After he fell out of Round 1 in the NFL Draft, AD Mitchell (2.5) – one of the worst “analytics profiles” ever in a run-first Colts offense – seemed like a reach.
Still, Audric Estime ahead of some exciting WRs (Malachi Corley, Javon Baker) or RBs of a similar mold but in better landing spots (Ray Davis, Kimani Vidal) has me completely befuddled. Look, I actually LOVE Estime. I think his feet move far too fast for his size, he can pass protect, and could have been a true three-down horse in the right offense.
Yet, he lands in Denver, where Sean Payton changes his mind by the drive for which RB he wants to use… and has plenty of worthy options. Maybe Javonte Williams will be gone in a year, and I’ll look foolish. I just don’t trust that Payton won’t select yet another back, or UDFA (I love Blake Watson, FWIW too) to constantly keep this a maddening committee.
Trader Tim: Ricky Pearsall (2.1): I thought Ricky Pearsall was a reach in the real-life draft, too, as there were much more exciting options available at that point for the 49ers. In fantasy, you’re looking at one year minimum before Pearsall even matters, with at least four premium pass catchers ahead of him in a low passing volume offense.
A year from now, he might well pay off when they move on from Deebo Samuel or Brandon Aiyuk, but that’s a ways away, and there will be time for newer, more shiny toys to be drafted next year. It’s not worth all of that waiting with some of the other WR options still available on the board.
DLo: Xavier Legette (2.11). After selecting Jonathan Brooks, I also ended up with his teammate in Legette in the late second. Looking back, I should have selected Blake Corum to diversify the portfolio a bit, given Carolina’s offensive woes from a year ago. The best case scenario would have been Jaylen Wright falling one more spot to me (thanks a lot, Wolf) to grab a piece of the electric Dolphins offense.
Snowdeal: Ricky Pearsall (2.01). A reach in the NFL draft and a reach in this mock. Pearsall doesn’t have a great production profile, accompanied by the fact he will be fighting for targets against Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuik and George Kittle. Bo Nix was sitting in a better situation with more instant production available. If anything, trade the pick to a QB-needy team and stock up for next year’s assets.
Tanner (Smoov): Ladd McConkey (1.12). In a surprising move, the Los Angeles Chargers shook up their receiving corps by parting ways with Mike Williams and Keenan Allen. This decision prompted speculation about Coach Jim Harbaugh’s plans for the team’s wide receiver room.
Instead of focusing solely on bolstering the passing game, Harbaugh opted to reinforce the offensive line by selecting standout lineman Joe Alt with the 5th overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. The Chargers further stirred the conversation by drafting Ladd McConkey as the 34th overall pick.
Despite McConkey’s modest statistics from the previous season, including less than 500 receiving yards, some NFL enthusiasts are placing their bets on him to take the lead in Los Angeles’ offense, even over players with more impressive resumes like Keon Coleman and Bo Nix, who were chosen earlier in the 2024 NFL draft – not that draft capitol means everything. Nonetheless, those two players were selected later in this mock draft.
We should question the rationale behind favoring McConkey over other prospects, especially given his college performance metrics, such as a low 17.8% college dominator rating (17th percentile) and a 14.8% college target share (27th percentile). For comparison, Coleman boasts a significantly higher college dominator rating of 39.6% (81st percentile), a more impressive 24.1% college target share (70th percentile), and displayed his formidable skill set at a young age.
Considering the vacancies in the Buffalo Bills’ receiver lineup following the departure of key players like Diggs, many believe that Coleman benefits more from his team’s circumstances than McConkey in Los Angeles.
Furthermore, the inherent value of a first-round quarterback like Bo Nix, selected by the Denver Broncos with the 12th overall pick, arguably exceeds that of a second-round receiver like McConkey. Despite concerns about Nix’s age, his college performance speaks volumes, boasting an impressive 87.0 college QBR, which places him in the 92nd percentile. In the previous season alone, Nix showcased his prowess by amassing 4,508 passing yards, averaging 9.6 yards per attempt, and maintaining an outstanding 45-3 TD-INT ratio. Notably, he also set an NCAA record for completion percentage in a single season with an impressive 77.4%.
Chase M-G: Michael Penix (2.09). I (and in particular, Reception Perception‘s Derrik Klassen) just think that Washington’s success didn’t have much to do with Penix but had mostly to do with an elite college wide receiver room and an elite college offensive coordinator in Ryan Grubb, in which every program Grubb touched during his college tenure turned to gold.
Yes, you could say the same thing about Urban Meyer. Still, my gut (for whatever that’s worth) tells me that Grubb’s transition to the NFL as the Seahawks’ new OC won’t equate to gracing us with stories of kicking his kickers at practice and searching for groupies’ dingle berries at a local bar. Which, in a way, is unfortunate.
MOH: Troy Franklin (2.07). A highly debated recruit throughout the pre-draft process, Troy Franklin ultimately slipped to Day 3 of the NFL Draft. Intriguingly, the Broncos reunited college teammates Bo Nix and Troy Franklin. However, it’s incredibly concerning that all 32 teams continued to pass on Franklin through three full rounds.
With an already questionable prospect profile and now poor draft capital, it’s becoming much more difficult to be interested in Franklin. Many draft analysts feared that NFL teams would view Franklin as a pure field stretcher, not a receiver who becomes a featured piece of an offense. These concerns are starting to seem like a reality.
Keegs: Troy Franklin (2.07). The Oregon product at 2.07 interested me with guys like Xavier Legette and Jermaine Burton on the board. Yes, Franklin will be reuniting with college QB Bo Nix, but I’m personally not super high on Nix’s NFL prospects, so I’m not sure how much that helps Franklin. There’s a reason he slid as far as he did in the actual draft, and his landing spot doesn’t give me any confidence that he’ll do much as a rookie.
Duck: Xavier Legette (2.11). See my notes above, but taking him over higher-upside receivers like Burton or even Polk as a red-zone TD threat just seems like a bad process to me.
I could understand taking him over some of the available RBs, but I can’t really justify passing on Blake Corum for Legette. While draft capital speaks louder than talent nine times out of 10, analytical profiles like Legette offer next-to-no hit rates.
With NFL defenses prioritizing zone defenses, Legette projects to have a massive learning curve and struggles to return on his investment.
