I didn’t like my chances to land any of the “Big 3 WRs,” but hoped that gross “early-on” landing spots for Malik Nabers and Rome Odunze might allow one to slip. If you’re drafting from the 1.10 and either do, don’t hesitate. Set and forget.
DRAFT STRATEGY FOR PICK 10 IN 2024 ROOKIE DRAFTS: MY PRE-DRAFT PLAN
Brock Bowers has to be considered if he slips this far, which is also unlikely. If you have a hole at TE, just snare one of the best prospects ever to play the position and enjoy TE1 production for the next decade.
Yet, suppose you’re already solid at TE (for example, I’m thinking of a league where I have Dalton Kincaid already). In that case, you have to consider going elsewhere, given the lack of “trade value.” Tight ends typically accrue – Sam LaPorta just had the best rookie TE of all time and is going toward the back end of Round 2 in Dynasty start-up drafts. Acquiring Bowers as just an “asset” likely isn’t the best option.
Given the SuperFlex format, I was hopeful JJ McCarthy may slip down to the 1.10. Though he rarely needed to flash it at Michigan, McCarthy possesses all the necessary arm talent to attack every layer of the field. More importantly, he has the IQ, mental toughness, and decision–making intangibles to thrive in Kevin O’Connell’s pass-first offense. The Vikings were hellbent on landing a rookie QB so they could extend Justin Jefferson, so I imagine JJ will be hurling to a crew of JJ, Jordan Addison, and an ahead-of-schedule TJ Hockenson for years to come. Shoot, Nick Mullens tossed over 300 yards in three-of-four games as a starter, including 411 and 396, finishing as the QB10 across his starts. With these weapons, in this scheme, JJ will be a weekly 300+ yard, 2+ TD machine for years to come. That’s the type of stabilizing force I crave in SuperFlex Dynasty.
Yet, if none of the Big 3 WRs, Bowers, and any of the QBs fall, I am turning to WR, no matter what. Yes, Jonathan Brooks is in a tier above the rest of this class, both for talent and his projected role with the Panthers. Still, any of my WR4-6, ideally Xavier Worthy or Ladd McConkey, are phenomenal assets in this Pick 8-12 range. Great prospect profiles, in perfect situations for short and long-term value, with elite arms throwing to them – what’s not to love?
Given how lauded this WRs class is and how much faster WRs accrue dynasty value as trade assets when they hit, I plan to continue loading up on WRs throughout. Guys like Ja’Lynn Polk, Jermaine Burton, and Javon Baker feel like Round 2-3 targets that could come into massive value as early as 2025. I do feel the RBs are a bit underappreciated in this class, too – especially guys like Jaylen Wright and Trey Benson who may not have the clearest path to Year 1 value, but land with great offensive minds and the upside to be Top-20 RBs by 2025.
Read more: “How to draft” from the… 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 spot
Let’s see how this baby goes!
PICK 1.10: XAVIER WORTHY, WR, KC CHIEFS
I couldn’t have been more thrilled to land Worthy at the 1.10, given he’s eighth on my personal 2024 Rookie Big Board. Sure, recent Chiefs WRs like Skyy Moore and Kadarius Toney may have fantasy managers gun-shy. Worthy is completely different.
I explore it in more detail here, but the math is easy: Xavier Worthy is the fastest player in NFL history (4.21 forty). The cannon-armed Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid have maximized speed more than any other duo in the past. They traded up to secure Worthy and must have a vision for how to maximize this deadly weapon. The glaring difference between Worthy and past speed failures (MVS, Toney) is his deadly ability in the screen game.
No one crafts a more deadly screen game than Reid. How often did we see Tyreek Hill get schemed into space, and then outrun the entire defense for 50+ yard TDs? Meanwhile, Worthy is experienced and deadly in the screen game. As Scott Barret points out, “46% of his career catches have come on screens (most of any projected top-25 Power 5 WR in this class), and 28% of his career targets have come on deep passes (most of any projected top-10 Power 5 WR in this class).”
While this “screen-reliance” may be negative in some landing spots, it’s a match made in heaven in Kansas City, given the expected usage. Also, Worthy was shockingly bad on deep targets in college (his 9.2 YPT on deep passes ranks worst for any projected non-UDFA Power 5 WR in the class). Yet, Worthy had the worst deep catchable target rate of any WR over the last four classes (33%). This suggests a massive untapped ceiling, one that Mahomes is the PERFECT passer to unlock.
Worthy should eat from day one and could become a Round 1-2 fixture in startups for years to come, tethered to Mahomes and the Chiefs.
PICK 2.10: JAYLEN WRIGHT, RB, MIAMI DOLPHINS
Already veering off my plan to hammer the WR position, Jaylen Wright is a worthy detour. I’m not a fan of Xavier Legette, and I hoped that either of the Pats rookie WRs (Polk or Baker), or possibly even Jermaine Burton, could fall to Round 3.
Thus, I wanted to tap into what I consider an underrated 2024 RB class, especially in terms of long-term fantasy outlooks.
Where better to start than the Miami Dolphins GOLD MINE backfield and Jaylen Wright?
Mike McDaniels was the former run-game coordinator of the Kyle Shahanan goldmine “zone scheme.” McDaniels has similarly made the Dolphins backfield a fantasy juggernaut. In 2023, a Dolphins RB scored 20+ FPs a whopping 11 times – only Christian McCaffrey / the 49ers RBs matched this. Miami averaged 137.5 rush yds (5th) & 1.5 rush TDs (3rd), and 25 RB FPs per game.
Then, consider Wright’s fit. He’s incredibly explosive, with 98th percentile speed (4.39 forty). A whopping 26% (30 total) of his rushes went for 10-plus yards, while 19 runs went for 15-plus. He also ran 10% of his routes of the slot. It’s no wonder McDaniels traded up for him.
As Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane have shown, when speed enters McDaniels’ system, it flourishes. Wright’s path may be seemingly crowded with those two still in front of him, but both RBs have injury question marks.
At minimum, Mostert is deep into his “back-nine” at 32 years old. Soon, Wright will get his shot, and I expect him to flourish. He’s especially valuable if you can afford to be patient until 2025, but I don’t know if you’ll even have to wait that long.
PICK 3.10: BUCKY IRVING, RB, TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
So much for tapping into this “talented WR crop.” Looks like the rest of this league had the same idea, and all of my main WR hopefuls (Polk, Burton, Baker) were long gone by the 3.10. Keep that in mind if you’re drafting in the bottom half, although I am still stoked about Wright in Round 2.
Thus, we pivot, and I don’t mind landing spot for Bucky Irving, in the least.
Yes, I’m aware of Irving’s dreadful combine and athletic testing:
When I watch his tape, though, I’m not overly concerned. Irving flies around the field, knifing through the defense with strong vision while constantly making people miss in space. Based on field GPS testing, he logged the fourth fastest MPH of any RB in this class—give me the guy whose speed shows up in pads and on Sundays. He’s also very tough to tackle and rarely goes down at the first hit.
Irving is also the top pass-catching back of the 2024 class, hauling in 56-of-58 targets (led all FBS RBs). He runs phenomenal routes up and down the tree, and this is where I can see him making an immediate impact from Year One. The Bucs have talked at length about reducing Rachaad White’s massive workload (336 touches behind only CMC), and Irving could absolutely spell White on third downs.
Perhaps Irving can also fit into the Bucs’ Red Zone plans. He scored 13 total TDs last year, and Bucs’ assistant GM John Spytek cited Irving’s toughness and nose-for-the-endzone as major factors for them selecting Irving: “All he does is get yards, he scores touchdowns, and he’s hard to get down in space. He’s just another player that defenses must focus on and figure out, ‘How do we get this guy on the ground?’
Irving intrigues me as a day one “handcuff–with–benefits” player within a top-15 offense, even if behind White (who I don’t find all that special).
PICK 4.10: DYLAN LAUBE, RB, LAS VEGAS RAIDERS
When it rains RBs, it pours! No WRs intrigued me at this price range, so rather than force it, I snagged Dylan Laube, who is among my favorite RB sleepers of this class.
Yes, Laube comes from a smaller school (UNH). Still, he was the FCS leader in all-purpose yards in both 2022 and 2023 and is regarded as one of the top pass-catching RBs in this class. While he may not have faced the strongest competition, he rose to the occasion in their toughest matchup vs. Central Michigan, hauling in an absurd 12 catches, 295 yards, and 2 TDs (NCAA record). He was also a Senior Bowl standout, according to all reports. Simply put, the kid can ball.
He also enters the PERFECT situation. The Raiders vacated 289 opportunities (sixth-most, 63.3%) and added no other RBs to a fairly barren depth chart, with only Zamir White as the lead threat. White was solid as the starter last year, but he’s not a world-beater. Even better, new Raiders’ GM Tom Telesco was incredibly adept at finding pass-catching RB gems, who brought Danny Woodhead to the Chargers before ultimately replacing him with a little UDFA named Austin Ekeler.
“We’re always looking for comps, but as far as the concept of style how they play, yeah, there’d be some similarities there,” Telesco said. “Obviously, Austin [Ekler] is a big-time player in this league, so I wouldn’t put him in that category yet. Same as Danny Woodhead, Danny who we had with the San Diego Chargers, he was amazing for us. But as far as a running back with receiving skills Dylan [Laube] ran a 4.49 so he had some good speed but can do a lot of different things as a football player which those two guys had to do.”
Laube has the receiving chops and an open path to volume to make an immediate impact. If he ends up being Telesco’s next gem pass-catching RB, Laube could be valuable for far longer than just his rookie season, too.
SUMMARY: POST-DRAFT THOUGHTS AND PICK 10 STRATEGY RECAP
While I entered the 2024 Rookie Fantasy Draft hoping to load up on WRs, I ended up snaring three RBs and just one WR by the end. Yet, I wouldn’t say I only landed one pass-catcher, considering all three of my RBs enter the NFL with impressive receiving chops and consequently are built to contribute from day one and beyond.
In hindsight, I may have gone with Ja’Lynn Polk or Jermaine Burton at the 2.10, since Javon Baker did not fall in the third like I was hoping. Still, I am not upset with having an RB as explosive as Jaylen Wright enter the perfect landing spot, and I wouldn’t be stunned if he is considered a top-10 Dynasty RB as soon as Raheem Mostert (age 32) is out of the league. There’s no better spot for an RB with speed to land, and Wright should perfectly fit the Dolphins’ scheme.
I always try to accrue players who seem likely to gain value from year one to year two. Those are often WRs, but all of my RBs have the pass-catching chops and shiftiness, alongside available opportunity, to gain some steam across this year.
This 2024 Rookie Draft was a solid reminder to go in with a plan, yet to be ready to abandon it quickly if the talent is steering you in a different direction. Sue, you can and should draft to fill roster holes as well, but ultimately flow with the player talents you covet– here at 2.10, pass-catching RBs won the day.
