In a match made in Fantasy Football Heaven, Derrick Henry will be joining the Baltimore Ravens on a two-year, $20 million deal. The math here is simple: a generational rushing talent enters a team notorious for pounding the rock with great success.
Yet, just how high should Henry rank in 2024 Fantasy Football? What is his true 2024 fantasy outlook within the explosive Ravens offense? Let’s dive in.
Derrick Henry: Still Has “It”
Yes, Henry enters the 2024 season with some age and mileage concerns. He just turned 30 years old in January, and Henry’s 2,030 career carries trail only Ezekiel Elliott among active RBs.
Indeed, these are red flags. Betting on a monster season from Henry would be banking on an outlier, for sure, which is rarely a recipe for fantasy success.
Still, Derrick Henry is an outlier. He’s a freight train in human form. He also showed no signs of slowing down last season. Despite playing behind a porous line that ranked dead-last by PFF, Henry ranked second in rush yards (1167), yards after contact (857), and explosive runs of 15+ yards (16 total).
He also hit some of the top speeds among RBs all season:
According to FantasyPoints Data, Henry ranked ninth in explosive run rate and 11th in yards after contact per attempt, as well. He also earned an 86.8 PFF Rushing grade last year, sixth best among RBs. His efficiency remained elite, quelling concerns Henry is losing steps as he ages.
Eye-ball test, Henry was still exploding through tackles and bursting away from defenders whenever provided a lane. He may not have had quite the breakaway speed we’ve become accustomed to, but Henry did not look like he lost many, if any, steps during his age-30 season.
The Ravens = Perfect Landing Spot for Derrick Henry’s 2024 Fantasy Value
Since 2018, no team has run more often, or more productively, than the Ravens.
In fact, the Ravens have ranked 1st, 1st, 1st, 3rd, 7th, and 1st in total attempts across those six seasons. Moreover, Baltimore finished 2nd, 1st, 1st, 3rd, 2nd, and 1st in rushing yards in that span. As a cherry on top, they also ranked 3rd, 2nd, 3rd, 9th, 20th, and 4th in rushing TDs, as well.
To summarize, the Ravens have been No.1 in carries in four of the last six seasons (never below 7th), and Top-3 in rushing yards in all six. It is, simply put, a rushing factory and a running back’s dream.
Under Ozzie Newson and now Eric DeCosta, the Ravens have always made the line a priority. They have been Top-5 in PFF line grades for three of the past five seasons, including the 5th-best unit last year, which is largely unchanged entering 2024.
Compared to the 32nd-ranked line he ran behind last year, Henry should find more space than ever. This is doubly true with the rushing threat of MVP Lamar Jackson, who’s presence has opened up massive cutback lanes for his RBs in the past.
Summary: Derrick Henry Should Erupt in 2024 Fantasy with the Ravens
Derrick Henry has ranked Top-2 in Rushing yards in his four last healthy seasons. The Ravens have ranked Top-3 in rush yards for six straight years. This pairing could not be more perfect.
Gus Edwards ranked third in the NFL with 13 rushing TDs last year, and finished as the RB19. Henry is a completely different animal, and should smash those totals.
Expect Henry to push for 13-18+ TDs, while also cruising to his sixth 1,000+ yard season in his last seven years (his only miss came from an eight-game 2021, where he was on pace for 1874 rush yards).
Despite his age, Henry rises to my RB12 and 40th overall player in my Half-PPR 2024 Fantasy Football Rankings. I think he absolutely feasts in this offense and could be the missing piece the Ravens need to push into the Super Bowl.
