If you have the 5th pick in your 2023 fantasy football league with Half-PPR scoring, there are a variety of strategies to put together the best possible fantasy team on paper. With how most mock drafts have gone, a workhorse running back should fall to me at No. 5 overall.
Read more: “How to draft” from the… 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 spot
Here’s how I attacked the Roto Street Journal 12-team mock draft with Half-PPR scoring (QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, TE, and FLEX) from the 5 spot:
1.05: RB1, Austin Ekeler
Justin Jefferson, Christian McCaffrey, Travis Kelce, and Ja’Marr Chase were all off the board, so I decided to go with Ekeler. Despite the fantasy community’s obsession with receivers this year, the data still shows that drafting elite running backs has a higher ceiling than elite receivers, especially in half-PPR.
2.08: RB2, Jonathan Taylor
Picking Taylor here wasn’t necessarily my plan. I’d have preferred a running back with a more stable situation, like Derrick Henry or Tony Pollard, or an elite receiver with top-5 upside, like Davante Adams or Amon-Ra St. Brown. However, Taylor still gives me a shot at a coveted league-winning asset, as shown in the picture below from Scott Barrett. I’ll take the upside shot over receivers like Jaylen Waddle, Chris Olave, and Devonta Smith, who were good last year but still haven’t produced a truly elite fantasy season yet.
3.05: QB1, Josh Allen
Taking an elite QB in the third round is another data-driven decision based on fantasy WAR. Last season, the top three QBs (Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes, and Josh Allen) finished in the top 10 in single-QB WAR, according to the chart below. The chart is based on full-PPR, and an elite QB even gives a slightly bigger edge in half-PPR. I have all three of the above QBs in the same tier for this year, so I was happy to get Allen for the cheapest cost after Mahomes and Hurts were already taken.
4.08: WR1, Amari Cooper
From this pick on, all players with a reasonable chance of finishing among the top players in fantasy WAR are taken. I mainly focused on taking the best player available while still prioritizing upside. In this case, that also happened to be a player at my biggest positional need. Cooper was the WR18 in PPG last year, but could rise if Deshaun Watson returns to form.
5.05: RB3 (FLEX), Kenneth Walker
I don’t regret this pick, but I also don’t feel great about it. Ideally, I would have taken another receiver with upside here, but I got sniped on Christian Watson, and none of the other available receivers seemed to have much upside. Walker definitely comes with workload concerns due to teammate Zach Charbonnet, but I’d generally rather flex running backs in half-PPR, and I didn’t see a better option.
6.08: TE1, Dallas Goedert
Again, wide receiver was my preferred pick here, but I liked Goedert’s value slightly more than Mike Evans. Prior to his shoulder injury in Week 10, he had the 3rd-highest PPG behind Kelce and Andrews at 12.6 half-PPR. Goedert also has a massive contingent upside if A.J. Brown or Devonta Smith misses time.
7.05: WR2: Michael Pittman
8.08: WR3, Michael Thomas
9.05: WR4, Zay Flowers
10.08: WR5, Adam Thielen
After filling in all other positions, I needed to take the best WR available from rounds 7-10 unless another screaming value appeared. If I had drafted WR-heavy early, I would instead prioritize upside running backs in this range, but I would prefer to hit WRs here in general.
I am probably starting Pittman and Thomas Week 1. Thielen gives me another immediately usable option, and Flowers is more of a bet for later in the season.
11.05: RB4, Tyler Allgeier
12.08: RB5, Jeff Wilson
13.05: WR6, Jonathan Mingo
14.08: RB6, Clyde Edwards-Helaire
After round 10, the only goal is to find players who can gain value before the season starts or have immediate upside. Allgeier could be useful if Bijan Robinson gets injured. Wilson is technically a starting running back, but he and Edwards-Helaire are both Week 1 cut candidates, depending on workload. Mingo is another dart throw, but I am likely cutting him early in the season if he doesn’t produce.
Final Roster:
QB: Josh Allen
RB: Austin Ekeler
RB: Jonathan Taylor
WR: Amari Cooper
WR: Michael Pittman
WR: Michael Thomas
TE: Dallas Goedert
FLEX: Kenneth Walker
Bench: Zay Flowers, Adam Thielen, Tyler Allgeier, Jeff Wilson, Jonathan Mingo, Clyde Edwards-Helaire
FURTHER OBSERVATIONS
I am pretty happy with how this team turned out. I am banking heavily on Jonathan Taylor either getting traded or playing for the Colts, Kenneth Walker getting enough work, and hitting on a couple of late-round receivers. However, assuming Taylor plays, my top three players have a solid chance to finish among the league leaders in WAR this year.
Taking a running back with my first two picks worked well for me in this mock. I would recommend drafting Ekeler or CMC at 1.05 if possible. I am also comfortable drafting any of the top-9 RBs at the 2.08. Having the position locked down early allowed me to take value at WR later, which the data supports as a solid approach.
You can find the link to the draft board here.
