AJ Dillion has come on strong in the second half of the season. Since Week 8, he’s the RB5 in PPR formats, averaging 97 yards from scrimmage on 18 opportunities per game. Even with Aaron Jones back in the lineup in Week 12, Dillon saw 25 total touches. While numbers are certainly impressive, they are also fairly misleading.
Here’s a breakdown:
Week 8 – Packers without Davante Adams, forced to rely on running game, played 40% of snaps
Week 9 – Packers without Aaron Rodgers, forced to start Jordan Love, played 38% of snaps but recorded 44 years receiving on four receptions
Week 10 – Jones gets hurt after 46% of snaps, Dillion finds end zone twice
Week 11 – Jones sidelined, Dillion primary back
Week 12 – Jones still clearly not 100%, only plays 49% of snaps and receives half rush attempts that Dillion saw
Despite a great run of fantasy performances from Dillion, I don’t think it continues after their Week 13 bye. Jones should be fully recovered from the mild MCL sprain he suffered in Week 10 and will revert back to 65% to 70% of snaps. Dillon is a FLEX consideration depending on the matchup, but he’s not locked in my lineup the rest of the way.
One could argue that his powerful running style is great for real football, but not fantasy football. He carried the ball 20 times on Sunday, yet he only accumulated 69 yards on the ground — which included a couple of huge first-down runs that were critical for the team to win the game.
“Numbers don’t always tell it all,” Dillon explained. “I can’t tell you how many times today we got first downs, second and one or third and whatever, but those keep the drive moving or staying ahead of the chains. Obviously, four-minute drives, everybody knows we’re going to run the ball, but putting us in position to run the ball. Anybody who knows or is watching the football game, you know how big and how key those are.
“As a running back, it’s great to go out there and keep those chains moving,” Dillon added. “It’s great to get the first down. That means more to me than going and running a 20-yard, down-the-sideline whatever.”
Entering Week 12, Dillon ranked RB22 on The Wolf’s Rest of Season Fantasy Rankings. Check back to see where he lands after Monday’s update.
