The following buy-low, sell-high recommendations are primarily based on a metric called Expected Fantasy Points (XFP). XFP calculates the value of each target and rushing attempt based on the distance to the end zone and air yards. These historical data attributes correlate highly with actual fantasy points scored (PPR scoring).
For more information on Expected Fantasy Points and to utilize our XFP data tool, click the link below:
RSJ’S XFP TOOL: CARRIES, TARGETS, AND AIR YARDS FOR EVERY PLAYER
The fantasy playoffs are fast approaching, and that means it’s time to start looking at playoff schedules. The Wolf highlighted some players with the easiest and toughest matchups. Below, I break down some players to ‘buy’ who both have favorable matchups and expected fantasy points numbers. I also identify players to ‘sell’ with tough matchups and less favorable expected fantasy points totals.
WEEK 12 BUY LOW
JAMES ROBINSON
James Robinson has been a solid fantasy asset so far this season. The image above contains his average stats for all active games this season, but if you remove Week 8 when Robinson played 11% of the snaps before injuring his heel, he averages a respectable 15.9 XFP per game, which would rank RB14.
However, that 15.9 figure is probably underselling his potential in the fantasy playoffs. Near the beginning of the season, Robinson was inexplicably losing snaps to backup Carlos Hyde. In Week 4, Hyde was inactive. Robinson played 95% of the snaps and seemed to take over the backfield until his injury. Between Week 4 and Week 6, Robinson averaged 17.2 XFP per game, which would be RB11 on the season.
Robinson has hovered around 60% of the snaps the previous two weeks, but that number will likely increase as he gets healthier. When combining Robinson’s easy fantasy playoff schedule with a fringe-RB1 workload, we have a player with a good chance to finish as an RB1 during the most important time of the year for fantasy football.
DIONTAE JOHNSON
I was way too low on Diontae Johnson during draft season because I thought teammate Chase Claypool was the superior talent. But, Diontae has taken his game to the next level this year. Last season, Johnson was a high-volume, low-efficiency receiver, producing only 923 yards on 139 targets (6.6 yards per target). He finished as PFF’s 61st graded receiver.
This season, he fixed his drop issues and has now produced 714 yards on 93 targets (7.7 YPT). He is currently PFF’s 33rd graded receiver and sits only a few points from the top 20. His 19.9 XFP per game ranks fourth at the WR position, just ahead of Davante Adams.
Over the last five games, Johnson is averaging a mind-boggling 22.2 XFP on 11.6 targets per game. Johnson just had a big game on Sunday Night Football, but his incredible target numbers combined with an easy playoff schedule still make him an attractive trade target.
CONTINUE TO BUY
Both of these players have been on the buy list in previous weeks due to their impressive workloads. Not much has changed for either player, and the great playoff schedules are icing on the cake.
D’ANDRE SWIFT
D’Andre Swift has continued to dominate in the passing game with a league-leading 6.7 targets per game from the running back position and now has back-to-back 100-yard rushing games.
PREVIOUS SWIFT BUY RECOMMENDATION
DARRELL HENDERSON
Darrell Henderson continues to see nearly 100% of the running back snaps and opportunities when healthy. The easier schedule should help the Rams offense get back on track and provide plenty of opportunities for Henderson.
PREVIOUS HENDERSON BUY RECOMMENDATION
WEEK 12 SELL HIGH
STEFON DIGGS
Stefon Diggs has previously been on the buy list due to seeing a ton of targets early in the season without much production to show for it. He was underperforming his XFP in the first five weeks by about four points per game. Through these first five games, he averaged 9.4 targets and 18.3 XFP compared to just 14.3 PPR points per game and was a clear candidate for positive regression.
Diggs has been much better in the last five games, averaging 20.3 PPR points per game. However, his targets and XFP have dropped slightly. Over the most recent five games, Diggs averaged 9.0 targets and 16.7 XFP. The primary difference is that five of his six touchdowns have come in the previous five weeks despite seeing less valuable targets.
Diggs likely has significant trade value in your league due to the recent production, but his touchdown rate over the previous five games is not sustainable. Scoring one touchdown through his first five games wasn’t sustainable either, and he will likely finish the season somewhere in between these two extremes. I don’t think he’s going to completely bust over the rest of the season, but the combination of recent unsustainable touchdown production and a tough playoff schedule means you can likely find a better option. I would prefer someone like Keenan Allen, who is averaging an impressive 21.9 XFP per game over his last four games.
DAMIEN HARRIS
Damien Harris is another player who was on the buy list after brutal showings in Weeks 3 and 4. His value was extremely low, and he bounced back nicely with solid performances from Week 5 to Week 8. Harris was an excellent bet to dominate carries in games the Patriots were leading, but unfortunately, teammate Rhamondre Stevenson has eaten into his role.
In the Week 11 blowout over the Falcons, Harris barely out-snapped Stevenson 25 to 21 and saw only 10 carries to Stevenson’s 12. Starting Harris is now difficult even in games where the Patriots expect to have the lead. Even if Stevenson gets injured or sees his role reduced, the playoff schedule likely won’t provide Harris with many opportunities to run against soft defenses. While Harris likely doesn’t have much value, you might be able to flip him for some wide receiver depth to an RB-needy team.
FINAL THOUGHTS
Now that you’re an Expected Fantasy Points Expert, you can use the tool to dominate your league. Check out my trade value chart, which also incorporates expected fantasy points data, and check back next week for more players to buy low and sell high. Please send any questions or feedback to @RSJ_Jackson on Twitter!
