2021 fantasy football 
expected fantasy points


powered by:

11/24 Update: Week 12 Expected Fantasy Points


Week 12 Buy-Low, Sell-High based on our Expected Fantasy Points model (Playoff Edition)


I built the model below based on a metric called Expected Fantasy Points (XFP). XFP calculates the value of each target and rushing attempt based on the distance to the end zone and air yards. These historical data attributes correlate highly with actual fantasy points scored (PPR scoring).

XFP essentially shows what a typical player would have done with the opportunities seen by any given player. For a more in-depth breakdown of Expected Fantasy Points, click here.

The main purpose of using my XFP model is to help you win trades during the season. We want to sell players who are unsustainably outproducing their expected numbers. We should buy players who are seeing plenty of volume but are underperforming due to bad luck.

I publish a weekly and updated trade value chart with specific values for every player based on a similar methodology. For tips on negotiating trades, click here.

Below, you can find expected fantasy points for each player along with their average carries, targets, and air yards through Week 11.

Check out the PDF DOWNLOAD and EXCEL DOWNLOAD links if you prefer to browse the data that way. The Excel download link has sortable data broken out for Weeks 1-10 individually.

PlayerTMPOSGPPR AVGXFP AVGDIF AVGCAR AVGTGT AVGAIR YDS AVG
N.HARRISPITRB1019.322.7-3.419.36.20
D.HENRYTENRB824.222.1228.52.5-0.4
C.KUPPLAWR1025.922.13.80.111.6101
D.COOKMINRB816.521.7-5.221.54-7.6
A.KAMARANORB819.821.5-1.818.85.54.3
T.HILLKCWR1121.121.3-0.10.711.2117
C.MCCAFFREYCARRB620.720.8-0.215.76.714.8
C.RIDLEYATLWR514.220-5.8010.4104.2
D.JOHNSONPITWR917.319.9-2.50.310.699.9
D.ADAMSGBWR102019.80.2010.6115.2
D.SWIFTDETRB1018.519.5-114.16.7-0.7
K.ALLENLACWR1016.719.3-2.6010.684.3
J.TAYLORINDRB112419.34.818.23.6-4.8
A.EKELERLACRB1022.119.22.913.15.89.3
E.ELLIOTTDALRB1017.217.9-0.715.53.8-1.4
M.BROWNBALWR917.817.70.20.19.1122.1
L.FOURNETTETBRB1015.217.6-2.412.35.46.8
D.MOORECARWR1114.817.6-2.80.69.297.5
S.DIGGSBUFWR1017.317.5-0.209.2109.4
T.MCLAURINWASWR1015.917.4-1.50.19.1116
J.JEFFERSONMINWR1019.317.12.20.38.9106
D.SAMUELSFWR1021.216.84.41.98.772.9
A.JONESGBRB1016.116.6-0.512.74.73.8
D.WALLERLVTE913.816.3-2.608.886
D.PARKERMIAWR512.716.3-3.508.6102.2
T.KELCEKCTE1116.716.20.40.18.968.3
C.GODWINTBWR1017.616.21.40.38.464.7
S.SHEPARDNYGWR513.916.1-2.20.28.662.2
B.COOKSHOUWR1013.716-2.30.18.6100.1
D.HENDERSONLARB915.516-0.514.13.83.7
J.WADDLEMIAWR1113.916-2.10.28.662.4
J.MIXONCINRB1018.315.92.418.32.6-2.6
A.BROWNTBWR519.115.93.20.28.4111.4
C.CLAYPOOLPITWR812.215.8-3.617.692
J.CHASECINWR1018.115.72.40.67.9108.6
A.THIELENMINWR1016.915.71.20.18.377.8
M.EVANSTBWR1017.615.52.10.17.7105.8
M.GASKINMIARB1112.115.4-3.311.44.7-0.2
M.CARTERNYJRB1012.815.3-2.611.54.63
K.HUNTCLERB617.415.32.112.54-0.2
R.WOODSLAWR915.215.200.97.762.6
M.WILLIAMSLACWR1016.115.20.907.885.3
M.ANDREWSBALTE1015.415.20.207.976.4
C.LAMBDALWR1016.314.91.40.57.787
T.HIGGINSCINWR811.714.7-307.587.5
A.BROWNTENWR1012.714.7-2.10.27.887.9
J.ROBINSONJAXRB915.514.70.812.73.60
C.PATTERSONATLRB917.614.43.28.65.321.8
J.JACOBSLVRB813.614.3-0.711.64-1.8
D.MOONEYCHIWR1012.514.1-1.60.27.584.8
A.GIBSONWASRB1012.514-1.515.92.3-1.6
M.PITTMANINDWR1114.8140.90.27.475.2
J.MEYERSNEWR1110.713.7-307.568.2
M.JONESJAXWR1010.913.7-2.80790.7
A.COOPERDALWR914.713.7107.189.3
C.SUTTONDENWR1011.913.5-1.606.7106.4
C.DAVISNYJWR812.713.5-0.80797.8
D.METCALFSEAWR1015.813.42.307.286.4
S.BARKLEYNYGRB612.713.4-0.710.34.32.5
N.CHUBBCLERB817.913.44.518.41.31.8
H.RENFROWLVWR1013.313.300.17.341.3
C.BEASLEYBUFWR1011.113.2-207.441.3
J.CROWDERNYJWR711.613.1-1.507.140.3
T.LOCKETTSEAWR1013.713.10.507.198.5
K.PITTSATLTE1011.313.1-1.806.977.2
J.JEUDYDENWR411.313.1-1.80.5763.3
M.GALLUPDALWR38.113-4.907.367.7
D.WILLIAMSKCRB1111.513-1.59.43.64.1
T.HOCKENSONDETTE1011.812.9-1.107.249.2
M.GESICKIMIATE111112.7-1.706.865.3
M.GORDONDENRB1012.712.70.112.22.92.2
D.SMITHPHIWR1112.412.6-0.206.693
J.CONNERARIRB1115.312.62.813.51.81
D.MONTGOMERYCHIRB612.912.50.416.220.5
G.KITTLESFTE713.212.50.60.16.954.3
D.HOPKINSARIWR815.712.33.406.173.9
D.HARRISNERB1011.812.2-0.514.71.40.6
R.BATEMANBALWR59.612.2-2.606.864.6
E.MOORENYJWR91211.90.10.36.373.1
C.EDMONDSARIRB910.911.9-18.74.12.9
N.FANTDENTE910.911.9-106.638.9
J.WILLIAMSDENRB109.911.8-1.910.72.9-1.4
J.WILSONSFRB24.811.8-714.515
M.SANDERSPHIRB88.811.8-3103.1-3
M.DAVISATLRB10811.6-3.79.23.7-5.6
E.SANDERSBUFWR1011.311.5-0.20.25.896.5
E.MITCHELLSFRB712.911.41.517.11.3-1.4
J.LANDRYCLEWR79.311.4-2.10.4647.9
R.GRONKOWSKITBTE514.311.42.905.852.4
T.BOYDCINWR1010.511.3-0.80.16.344.8
Z.MOSSBUFRB99.911.3-1.48.62.91.1
D.CHARKJAXWR48.611.2-2.605.598.8
D.BOOKERNYGRB99.811.1-1.39.92.7-1
R.ANDERSONCARWR116.711.1-4.40.15.960.8
C.EDWARDS-HELAIREKCRB611.411.10.213.22-3.7
L.SHENAULTJAXWR108.211.1-2.90.86.136.5
J.MCKISSICWASRB1010.510.8-0.34.24.89.9
A.GREENARIWR1010.610.8-0.205.568.1
Z.ERTZARITE1110.610.7-0.10.15.540.4
D.SCHULTZDALTE1011.110.60.505.941.5
A.MILLERHOUWR26.710.6-405.537
C.HUBBARDCARRB118.410.6-2.2112.53.3
C.CARSONSEARB41210.51.513.51.5-3.3
V.JEFFERSONLAWR109.710.5-0.805.368.5
C.KIRKARIWR1112.610.42.20.15.561.6
J.WHITENERB310.410.403.34.717
S.WATKINSBALWR77.910.3-2.405.677.1
T.PATRICKDENWR1011.310.31.105.360.6
M.VALDES-SCANTLINGGBWR68.510.2-1.70597.7
J.SMITH-SCHUSTERPITWR5710.2-3.30.65.636.6
R.STEVENSONNERB71010.2-0.2102-1.3
M.HARDMANKCWR118.210.1-1.90.55.437.3
D.SINGLETARYBUFRB10910.1-1.18.33.21.4
H.RUGGSLVWR712.1102.10.45.186.9
T.JOHNSONNYJRB108.39.8-1.54.33.88.6
E.ENGRAMNYGTE87.79.8-2.10.15.126.9
T.HIGBEELATE1099.7-0.705.124.8
K.TONEYNYGWR98.49.7-1.30.35.334.6
P.FREIERMUTHPITTE109.39.6-0.404.925.6
J.JONESTENWR69.19.6-0.505.263
A.DILLONGBRB119.99.50.4102.20.7
J.WILLIAMSDETRB88.89.5-0.79.82.30.3
T.POLLARDDALRB1010.39.50.89.42.7-0.6
T.CONKLINMINTE109.59.4005.228
R.MOOREARIWR1199.3-0.41.15.18.5
Q.CEPHUSDETWR59.99.20.604.651.2
J.COOKLACTE1089.1-1.20538
Z.PASCALINDWR117.69.1-1.50.14.842
M.CALLAWAYNOWR109.89.10.704.764.9
K.DRAKELVRB109.69.10.55.63.67.9
W.FULLERMIAWR24.39.1-4.80475
D.KNOXBUFTE812.393.304.837.5
A.PETERSONTENRB36.38.9-2.591.3-2
R.GAGEATLWR76.88.8-204.936.7
K.GOLLADAYNYGWR77.58.7-1.304.763.6
A. ST. BROWNDETWR1078.7-1.704.835.6
D.GOEDERTPHITE109.78.7104.741
D.SLAYTONNYGWR76.18.7-2.604.763.9
K.RAYMONDDETWR107.98.7-0.80.24.752.4
K.GAINWELLPHIRB107.78.7-14.43.27.9
D.JOHNSONHOURB106.48.6-2.34.83.49.4
N.AGHOLORNEWR117.98.6-0.70.14.566.3
C.KMETCHITE105.98.6-2.70.14.642.1
D.FREEMANBALRB98.98.50.46.82.44.9
B.AIYUKSFWR108.28.4-0.20.34.238
J.HASTYSFRB56.68.3-1.72.63.67.8
A.MATTISONMINRB106.78.3-1.68.42.20.1
D.HARRISNOWR998.30.70.34.448.2
H.HENRYNETE1110.38.22.104.137.1
P.BARBERLVRB46.78.1-1.59.81.34.5
N.HINESINDRB117.38-0.84.33.54.3
K.OSBORNMINWR107.98-0.10.14.540.7
K.BOURNENEWR1111.183.10.54.341.2
A.COLLINSSEARB97.27.8-0.710.60.9-0.2
J.O'SHAUGHNESSYJAXTE27.17.7-0.604.529.5
B.EDWARDSLVWR107.67.60.10.13.861
J.AGNEWJAXWR1077.5-0.50.7428.8
A.TRAUTMANNOTE105.37.4-20420.5
C.HYDEJAXRB93.97.3-3.46.724.9
L.MURRAYBALRB78.17.20.9101-0.6
T.HILTONINDWR45.47.2-1.803.850.5
R.SEALS-JONESWASTE96.47.1-0.703.819.4
A.HOOPERCLETE116.27.1-0.903.816.8
D.AMENDOLAHOUWR65.27-1.80426.7
D.ARNOLDJAXTE105.97-1.103.922
J.SMITHNETE105.16.9-1.80.43.617.3
K.HERBERTCHIRB105.66.8-1.28.71-3.1
J.REAGORPHIWR1156.8-1.80.53.533.5
R.TONYANGBTE86.36.7-0.403.632
L.THOMASWASTE48.46.71.703.526.3
R.COBBGBWR116.96.70.20.13.124.7
D.WILLIAMSCHIRB76.26.6-0.45.32-1.3
Q.WATKINSPHIWR116.36.6-0.403.544.5
J.MCNICHOLSTENRB105.96.6-0.61.83.30.9
S.MICHELLARB105.56.5-17.61.20.1
O.ZACCHEAUSATLWR105.86.5-0.803.429.2
K.HAMLERDENWR34.16.5-2.403.367
C.BRATETBTE103.86.5-2.703.429.7
G.EVERETTSEATE86.96.50.40.33.612.9
C.WILSONDALWR107.66.51.10.23.433
K.COLENYJWR94.96.4-1.403.344.3
D.FOREMANTENRB35.96.3-0.4810
P.CAMPBELLINDWR56.46.30.203.446.2
N.COLLINSHOUWR75.16.3-1.103.431.4
D.NJOKUCLETE116.76.20.50.13.225.4
N.WESTBROOK-IKHINETENWR1066.1-0.103.129.9
P.WILLIAMSMIAWR52.56.1-3.60.2326.8
M.GOODWINCHIWR1056-1.10.23.240
J.WASHINGTONPITWR94.65.9-1.30.2331.8
J.DOYLEINDTE114.95.9-1.102.918.7
B.BERRIOSNYJWR1055.9-0.90.23.219.8
B.BOLDENNERB116.55.90.62.52.61.3
G.BERNARDTBRB96.35.80.60.832.8
M.WILLIAMSARITE58.35.82.503.418
D.PEOPLES-JONESCLEWR88.15.82.402.949.3
S.PERINECINRB96.25.70.54.421.6
J.HOWARDPHIRB46.95.71.29.800
J.AKINSHOUTE945.7-1.70.13.118.7
A.HUMPHRIESWASWR104.95.6-0.803.224.8
A.LAZARDGBWR96.25.60.602.933.1
D.JOHNSONCLERB115.95.60.35.91.31.5
O.BECKHAMLAWR73.85.6-1.80335.6

Consume our Stock Watch, Rankings, and Strategy Content in it's cleanest form -- right in your iPhone.


Download the RSJ App today

Bookmark our Fantasy Football Stock Watchwhere wolves the fantasy football news, moves, and performances that truly impact player fantasy values

Can AJ Dillon be Trusted as a Rest of Season Fantasy Starter?
AJ Dillon is putting up numbers even with Aaron Jones in the lineup.
Cedrick Wilson is a Desperation Fantasy Week 12 Streamer for WR-Needy Squads
Cedrick Wilson could be a top streaming option for those in need of a receiver this week.
Ty Johnson Fantasy Outlook Set to Rise After Michael Carter Injury
Michael Carter's injury will give Ty Johnson a chance to shine.
Elijah Moore Hotter than Jet Fuel, Skyrocketing Up Weekly Fantasy Football Rankings
Elijah Moore could be a stretch run hero after his monster Week 11.

Copyright 2021, Roto Street Journal