2021 fantasy football 
expected fantasy points


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12/8 Update: Week 14 Expected Fantasy Points


Week 14 Buy-Low, Sell-High based on our Expected Fantasy Points model


I built the model below based on a metric called Expected Fantasy Points (XFP). XFP calculates the value of each target and rushing attempt based on the distance to the end zone and air yards. These historical data attributes correlate highly with actual fantasy points scored (PPR scoring).

XFP essentially shows what a typical player would have done with the opportunities seen by any given player. For a more in-depth breakdown of Expected Fantasy Points, click here.

The main purpose of using my XFP model is to help you win trades during the season. We want to sell players who are unsustainably outproducing their expected numbers. We should buy players who are seeing plenty of volume but are underperforming due to bad luck.

I publish a weekly and updated trade value chart with specific values for every player based on a similar methodology. For tips on negotiating trades, click here.

Below, you can find expected fantasy points for each player along with their average carries, targets, and air yards through Week 13.

Check out the PDF DOWNLOAD and EXCEL DOWNLOAD links if you prefer to browse the data that way. The Excel download link has sortable data broken out for Weeks 1-10 individually.

PlayerTMPOSGPPR AVGXFP AVGDIF AVGCAR AVGTGT AVGAIR YDS AVG
D.HENRYTENRB824.222.1228.52.5-0.4
C.KUPPLAWR1225.321.63.80.111.3100
A.KAMARANORB819.821.5-1.818.85.54.3
N.HARRISPITRB121821.5-3.618.56-1
D.COOKMINRB916.321.3-520.24.3-8.7
D.JOHNSONPITWR1118.620.4-1.80.310.9102.6
T.HILLKCWR1219.720.3-0.50.710.7111.2
C.RIDLEYATLWR514.220-5.8010.4104.2
D.ADAMSGBWR1119.819.50.4010.5111.7
J.TAYLORINDRB1323.719.44.419.13.5-4.5
A.EKELERLACRB1221.719.32.413.15.98.8
L.FOURNETTETBRB1218.219.1-0.912.85.85.8
K.ALLENLACWR1217.119-1.9010.383.1
C.MCCAFFREYCARRB718.218.9-0.714.95.913
J.JEFFERSONMINWR1220.118.51.70.39.3113.8
D.SWIFTDETRB1117.118.3-1.213.16.4-0.9
D.MOORECARWR1214.717.7-2.90.69.3102
E.ELLIOTTDALRB1216.317.6-1.314.84.1-0.4
M.BROWNBALWR1116.717.2-0.40.19112.2
J.MIXONCINRB1218.817.21.619.32.6-3.1
S.DIGGSBUFWR1216.917.1-0.209106.8
C.GODWINTBWR1217.616.80.80.48.863.6
J.WADDLEMIAWR1315.316.5-1.10.28.965.8
A.GIBSONWASRB1214.216.4-2.217.73-2.3
D.SAMUELSFWR1121.216.44.72.38.372.5
T.MCLAURINWASWR1214.416.3-1.90.18.6108.8
T.KELCEKCTE1215.816.1-0.30.18.867.7
S.SHEPARDNYGWR513.916.1-2.20.28.662.2
D.HENDERSONLARB1015.716-0.314.33.83.7
J.JACOBSLVRB1015.215.9-0.812.84.5-1.5
T.HIGGINSCINWR1014.615.9-1.308.2101.6
M.ANDREWSBALTE1214.915.7-0.808.286.4
C.LAMBDALWR1116.615.70.90.58.290.8
A.JONESGBRB1114.815.7-0.812.54.43.5
D.WALLERLVTE1012.915.6-2.708.485
M.CARTERNYJRB1012.815.3-2.611.54.63
R.WOODSLAWR915.215.200.97.762.6
M.EVANSTBWR1216.515.21.30.17.7101.3
M.GASKINMIARB1312.315.2-2.9124.3-0.4
D.PARKERMIAWR612.515.1-2.60895
M.WILLIAMSLACWR1215.415.10.307.886.2
B.COOKSHOUWR1213.315-1.80.28.193.3
D.MONTGOMERYCHIRB814.514.8-0.316.83-1.1
C.CLAYPOOLPITWR1011.614.8-3.20.97.293.1
A.BROWNTENWR1012.714.7-2.10.27.887.9
J.CHASECINWR1216.514.71.80.57.597.8
M.GALLUPDALWR510.914.6-3.707.888.4
A.THIELENMINWR1216.114.61.50.17.773
M.PITTMANINDWR1314.614.500.37.679.5
C.PATTERSONATLRB1118.114.53.59.55.119.9
S.BARKLEYNYGRB812.414.4-210.852.6
J.ROBINSONJAXRB1114.114.4-0.312.63.62.1
A.PETERSONSEARB17.614.3-6.71100
D.MOONEYCHIWR1212.514-1.60.37.583.2
E.MITCHELLSFRB915.114118.82-1.8
H.RENFROWLVWR1214.513.90.50.27.748.9
K.HUNTCLERB715.213.81.311.73.6-0.9
E.MOORENYJWR1112.613.6-10.5782.6
J.WILLIAMSDENRB1212.413.3-0.910.83.1-1.1
J.CONNERARIRB1215.713.22.514.11.80.8
D.METCALFSEAWR1214.313.11.10790.3
N.CHUBBCLERB916.613.13.517.21.63.2
T.LOCKETTSEAWR1214.1131.10797.1
M.GORDONDENRB1112.513-0.512.62.81.9
M.JONESJAXWR121012.9-2.906.786
R.GRONKOWSKITBTE716.112.93.206.760.7
K.PITTSATLTE1210.512.8-2.306.873.4
J.MEYERSNEWR1310.212.8-2.506.967
C.SUTTONDENWR1210.512.7-2.206.399.7
M.GESICKIMIATE1310.612.7-2.106.862.8
A.COOPERDALWR1013.812.61.206.682.4
C.DAVISNYJWR911.712.5-0.906.689.2
D.WILLIAMSKCRB1211.412.5-1.193.65.3
G.KITTLESFTE914.912.52.40.26.954
T.HOCKENSONDETTE1212.112.4-0.306.950.9
J.LANDRYCLEWR81012.2-2.20.46.555.8
C.BEASLEYBUFWR1210.312.1-1.906.838.3
C.EDMONDSARIRB910.911.9-18.74.12.9
M.SANDERSPHIRB109.511.9-2.411.32.9-2.7
D.SMITHPHIWR1311.111.7-0.706.285.4
J.CROWDERNYJWR910.411.7-1.406.337.4
V.JEFFERSONLAWR1210.911.5-0.605.875.5
L.SHENAULTJAXWR12811.4-3.40.96.337.2
M.VALDES-SCANTLINGGBWR78.611.4-2.805.6108
D.HARRISNERB1212.211.30.9141.30.3
D.HOPKINSARIWR915.211.33.905.768.8
J.JEUDYDENWR610.211.3-1.10.36.253.2
D.CHARKJAXWR48.611.2-2.605.598.8
C.EDWARDS-HELAIREKCRB711.311.20.113.32.1-4.3
M.DAVISATLRB128.611.1-2.58.43.8-4.8
Z.MOSSBUFRB109.411.1-1.78.52.92.3
J.MCKISSICWASRB1111.611.10.54.54.88.1
N.FANTDENTE119.911-1.106.136.3
E.SANDERSBUFWR1210.410.9-0.60.25.686.7
R.ANDERSONCARWR126.310.8-4.50.15.860.8
D.SCHULTZDALTE1211.310.70.605.944.3
T.BOYDCINWR1210.210.7-0.60.1644.3
A.DILLONGBRB1210.810.70.110.82.40.1
R.GAGEATLWR99.810.6-0.805.941.4
C.CARSONSEARB41210.51.513.51.5-3.3
J.WHITENERB310.410.403.34.717
D.BOOKERNYGRB119.210.2-18.92.6-1.1
J.SMITH-SCHUSTERPITWR5710.2-3.30.65.636.6
J.WILLIAMSDETRB109.310.2-0.9112.40.8
A.ROBINSONCHIWR97.810.2-2.405.665
R.STEVENSONNERB99.210.1-111.41.70.2
Z.ERTZARITE129.910.1-0.20.15.238.3
C.KIRKARIWR1211.610.11.60.15.357.9
D.FREEMANBALRB119.810-0.38.32.84.5
H.RUGGSLVWR712.1102.10.45.186.9
A.GREENARIWR119.810-0.105.163.2
R.BATEMANBALWR77.99.9-2.105.649.7
C.HUBBARDCARRB127.79.9-2.210.32.33.1
T.CONKLINMINTE129.39.8-0.505.328.4
T.PATRICKDENWR12109.80.205.157.1
A.MATTISONMINRB128.29.8-1.59.52.30.3
C.KMETCHITE126.79.8-3.10.15.345.3
T.POLLARDDALRB1210.89.719.32.9-0.7
E.ENGRAMNYGTE107.89.7-1.90.15.229.3
T.HIGBEELATE128.59.7-1.205.228.3
K.TONEYNYGWR98.49.7-1.30.35.334.6
D.SINGLETARYBUFRB128.39.6-1.492.81.3
J.JONESTENWR69.19.6-0.505.263
A. ST. BROWNDETWR128.49.6-1.205.337.4
S.WATKINSBALWR97.99.5-1.605.165.7
K.GOLLADAYNYGWR97.49.4-20564.3
Z.PASCALINDWR136.79.4-2.60.24.841.8
M.HARDMANKCWR127.79.4-1.70.4533.8
P.FREIERMUTHPITTE129.59.30.304.825.3
Q.CEPHUSDETWR59.99.20.604.651.2
T.JOHNSONNYJRB127.59.2-1.74.23.68.9
W.FULLERMIAWR24.39.1-4.80475
D.SLAYTONNYGWR95.79.1-3.30.14.965.2
K.GAINWELLPHIRB128.69-0.44.73.47.3
J.COOKLACTE1289-104.940.1
R.MOOREARIWR128.48.9-0.61.34.87.3
D.KNOXBUFTE10128.93.104.737.6
B.AIYUKSFWR128.68.9-0.30.34.544.2
J.O'SHAUGHNESSYJAXTE46.48.8-2.50535
D.HARRISNOWR117.58.8-1.30.44.847.3
M.CALLAWAYNOWR128.78.8-0.104.662.8
D.JOHNSONHOURB116.58.8-2.35.33.47.3
D.FOREMANTENRB478.6-1.610.81-0.8
D.GOEDERTPHITE1210.68.5204.739
K.DRAKELVRB128.58.50.15.33.35.9
K.OSBORNMINWR127.98.2-0.30.14.538.8
L.THOMASWASTE68.98.20.704.239
K.RAYMONDDETWR127.48.1-0.70.24.446.3
G.EVERETTSEATE107.18.1-10.24.414.5
N.HINESINDRB137.18-0.93.93.66.9
M.INGRAMNORB124.68-3.47.62.3-1.8
C.WILSONDALWR118.57.90.60.3438.7
N.AGHOLORNEWR137.17.9-0.70.24.258.2
S.MICHELLARB126.77.9-1.28.61.4-0.6
O.BECKHAMLAWR96.37.7-1.50453.7
H.HENRYNETE1397.71.203.835.1
K.BOURNENEWR1311.27.73.50.54.136.4
A.COLLINSSEARB106.67.6-110.20.90.2
J.AGNEWJAXWR1077.5-0.50.7428.8
A.TRAUTMANNOTE105.37.4-20420.5
B.EDWARDSLVWR127.17.3-0.30.13.757.4
D.AMENDOLAHOUWR75.27.3-2.104.129
C.HYDEJAXRB1147.2-3.26.81.83.5

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