2021 fantasy football
expected fantasy points

FULL 2021 SEASON DATA INCLUDING PLAYOFFS

I built the model below based on a metric called Expected Fantasy Points (XFP). XFP calculates the value of each target and rushing attempt based on the distance to the end zone and air yards. These historical data attributes correlate highly with actual fantasy points scored (PPR scoring).

XFP essentially shows what a typical player would have done with the opportunities seen by any given player. For a more in-depth breakdown of Expected Fantasy Points, click here.

The main purpose of using my XFP model is to help you win trades during the season. We want to sell players who are unsustainably outproducing their expected numbers. We should buy players who are seeing plenty of volume but are underperforming due to bad luck.

I publish a weekly and updated trade value chart with specific values for every player based on a similar methodology. For tips on negotiating trades, click here.

Below, you can find expected fantasy points for each player along with their average carries, targets, and air yards for the entire 2021 NFL season, including playoffs.

Check out the EXCEL DOWNLOAD link if you prefer to browse the data that way. The Excel download link has sortable data broken out for each week individually.

Player	TM	POS	G	PPR AVG	XFP AVG	DIF AVG	CAR AVG	TGT AVG	AIR YDS AVG
D.HENRY	TEN	RB	9	22.8	21.5	1.3	27.7	2.2	-0.3
C.KUPP	LA	WR	21	26.4	21.2	5.2	0.3	11.1	96
A.KAMARA	NO	RB	13	18.1	20.4	-2.3	18.8	5.2	6.3
C.RIDLEY	ATL	WR	5	14.2	20	-5.8	0	10.4	104.2
D.ADAMS	GB	WR	17	21.3	20	1.3	0	10.6	102.4
N.HARRIS	PIT	RB	18	16.9	19.8	-2.9	18	5.3	-1.3
D.JOHNSON	PIT	WR	17	17	19.7	-2.7	0.3	10.5	90.4
L.FOURNETTE	TB	RB	15	19.1	19.6	-0.4	12.9	6.2	3.9
A.EKELER	LAC	RB	16	21.5	19.4	2	13.4	5.9	10.7
D.COOK	MIN	RB	13	15.9	19.2	-3.3	20	3.8	-6.1
J.JEFFERSON	MIN	WR	17	19.4	19.1	0.3	0.4	9.8	121.8
C.MCCAFFREY	CAR	RB	7	18.2	18.9	-0.7	14.9	5.9	13
J.TAYLOR	IND	RB	17	21.9	18.8	3.1	19.9	3.1	-3.2
K.ALLEN	LAC	WR	16	16.1	18.3	-2.1	0	9.8	81.9
T.HILL	KC	WR	20	18.3	18.1	0.2	0.5	9.4	94.9
D.MOORE	CAR	WR	17	14	18	-4	0.5	9.5	101.8
D.MONTGOMERY	CHI	RB	13	15	17.6	-2.6	17.3	3.9	3.5
J.MIXON	CIN	RB	20	17.7	17.6	0	18.2	3.5	-1.2
S.DIGGS	BUF	WR	19	15.8	17.6	-1.8	0	9.2	102.8
C.GODWIN	TB	WR	14	17.3	17.3	0	0.4	9.1	66.5
M.BROWN	BAL	WR	16	14.1	17.3	-3.1	0.1	9.1	101.3
D.SWIFT	DET	RB	13	16.1	17.2	-1.1	11.9	6	0.1
M.ANDREWS	BAL	TE	17	17.7	17.1	0.6	0.1	9	92.8
J.JACOBS	LV	RB	16	15.2	16.4	-1.2	14.6	4.3	-1.2
A.BROWN	TB	WR	7	17.3	16.4	0.9	0.1	8.9	104.9
J.WADDLE	MIA	WR	16	15.4	16.3	-1	0.1	8.9	63.6
D.WALLER	LV	TE	12	12.3	16.2	-3.9	0	8.8	86
E.ELLIOTT	DAL	RB	18	14.2	16.2	-2	14.1	3.8	1.2
A.GIBSON	WAS	RB	16	14.3	16.1	-1.8	16.5	3.3	-0.6
T.KELCE	KC	TE	19	17.8	15.9	1.9	0.1	8.5	63.4
M.WILLIAMS	LAC	WR	16	15.4	15.7	-0.3	0	8.1	93.6
A.BROWN	TEN	WR	14	14.7	15.5	-0.7	0.1	8.1	100.6
A.JONES	GB	RB	16	15.9	15.4	0.5	11.7	4.7	4.8
D.MOONEY	CHI	WR	17	12.9	15.4	-2.4	0.4	8.2	87.1
B.COOKS	HOU	WR	16	14.5	15.3	-0.8	0.1	8.3	89.9
R.WOODS	LA	WR	9	15.2	15.2	0	0.9	7.7	62.6
D.SAMUEL	SF	WR	19	20.5	15.2	5.3	4.5	7.1	55.8
M.EVANS	TB	WR	18	17.5	15.1	2.4	0.1	7.7	97.4
J.CHASE	CIN	WR	21	17.9	15	2.9	0.6	7.8	93
T.HIGGINS	CIN	WR	18	15.6	15	0.6	0	7.8	93.9
T.MCLAURIN	WAS	WR	17	12.6	14.5	-1.9	0.1	7.6	99.9
R.GRONKOWSKI	TB	TE	14	14.1	14.4	-0.3	0	7.6	77
D.METCALF	SEA	WR	17	14.4	14.4	0	0.1	7.6	96.2
M.PITTMAN	IND	WR	17	14	14.3	-0.3	0.3	7.6	74.2
H.RENFROW	LV	WR	18	15.2	14.3	0.8	0.2	7.7	50.2
J.MEYERS	NE	WR	18	10.9	14.1	-3.2	0.1	7.5	71
S.BARKLEY	NYG	RB	13	11.4	14.1	-2.6	12.6	4.4	2.3
S.SHEPARD	NYG	WR	7	11.1	14	-2.9	0.1	7.6	57.7
C.CLAYPOOL	PIT	WR	16	10.8	14	-3.2	0.9	7	81.7
E.MITCHELL	SF	RB	14	14.3	13.9	0.4	19	2.1	-0.6
C.LAMB	DAL	WR	17	13.9	13.9	0	0.6	7.4	75.5
J.CONNER	ARI	RB	16	16.7	13.9	2.8	13.1	2.6	0.8
A.THIELEN	MIN	WR	13	15.4	13.9	1.5	0.1	7.3	69.5
M.CARTER	NYJ	RB	14	11	13.8	-2.7	10.8	3.9	2.4
D.HENDERSON	LA	RB	13	13.2	13.7	-0.5	11.8	3.5	6.6
M.JONES	JAX	WR	17	10.6	13.7	-3.1	0	6.9	85.2
D.PARKER	MIA	WR	10	10.4	13.6	-3.3	0	7.3	83.6
E.MOORE	NYJ	WR	11	12.6	13.6	-1	0.5	7	82.6
A.COOPER	DAL	WR	16	13.8	13.5	0.3	0	7.1	78.9
C.PATTERSON	ATL	RB	16	14.7	13.4	1.3	9.5	4.3	13.8
J.LANDRY	CLE	WR	12	11.1	13.4	-2.3	0.3	7.3	57.5
J.ROBINSON	JAX	RB	14	12.4	13.3	-0.9	11.9	3.3	2.8
C.AKERS	LA	RB	5	6.6	13.2	-6.6	14.4	2.6	11.4
N.CHUBB	CLE	RB	14	15.4	13.2	2.2	16.6	1.8	1.8
M.GALLUP	DAL	WR	9	10.2	12.9	-2.8	0	6.9	79.1
D.HOPKINS	ARI	WR	10	14.7	12.9	1.8	0	6.4	78.8
J.WILLIAMS	DEN	RB	17	12.1	12.9	-0.8	12.2	3.1	-0.7
C.EDMONDS	ARI	RB	13	11.2	12.9	-1.6	9.7	4.2	3.6
M.GASKIN	MIA	RB	17	10.2	12.9	-2.6	10.3	3.7	1.9
T.LOCKETT	SEA	WR	16	15.1	12.9	2.2	0.1	6.7	97.9
K.HUNT	CLE	RB	8	13.8	12.7	1.1	10.5	3.4	0.5
A. ST. BROWN	DET	WR	17	13.4	12.6	0.8	0	7	48.9
C.DAVIS	NYJ	WR	9	11.7	12.5	-0.9	0	6.6	89.2
T.HOCKENSON	DET	TE	12	12.1	12.4	-0.3	0	6.9	50.9
M.GORDON	DEN	RB	16	12.2	12.4	-0.2	12.9	2.4	1
D.SINGLETARY	BUF	RB	19	12.5	12.4	0.1	11.3	3.1	-0.8
R.GAGE	ATL	WR	14	11.6	12.3	-0.7	0	6.7	62.2
Z.ERTZ	ARI	TE	18	10.3	12.3	-1.9	0.1	6.4	47.9
D.SMITH	PHI	WR	18	11	12.2	-1.2	0	6.3	86.6
K.PITTS	ATL	TE	17	10.4	12.2	-1.8	0	6.5	69.9
R.ANDERSON	CAR	WR	17	8.1	12.1	-4	0.2	6.5	68
M.GESICKI	MIA	TE	17	9.7	12	-2.3	0	6.5	60.1
C.KIRK	ARI	WR	18	12.2	11.9	0.3	0.1	6.3	73.7
C.BEASLEY	BUF	WR	18	9.7	11.9	-2.2	0	6.7	38
G.KITTLE	SF	TE	17	13	11.6	1.4	0.2	6.4	54
M.SANDERS	PHI	RB	13	9.5	11.6	-2.2	11.2	2.8	-1.1
D.HARRIS	NE	RB	16	13.4	11.5	1.9	13.4	1.4	-0.1
D.SCHULTZ	DAL	TE	18	12.5	11.4	1	0	6.2	44
C.SUTTON	DEN	WR	17	8.8	11.3	-2.5	0	5.8	88.8
L.SHENAULT	JAX	WR	16	7.9	11.3	-3.4	0.8	6.2	34.6
D.CHARK	JAX	WR	4	8.6	11.2	-2.6	0	5.5	98.8
J.MCKISSIC	WAS	RB	11	11.6	11.1	0.5	4.5	4.8	8.1
A.GREEN	ARI	WR	17	9.2	11	-1.8	0	5.6	69.6
D.WILLIAMS	KC	RB	19	10.2	11	-0.8	7.8	3	4.3
J.CROWDER	NYJ	WR	12	9.1	11	-1.8	0	6	37.8
J.SMITH-SCHUSTER	PIT	WR	6	7.1	10.7	-3.7	0.5	6	36
J.WILLIAMS	DET	RB	13	9.2	10.7	-1.5	11.8	2.2	0.8
M.DAVIS	ATL	RB	17	8.1	10.6	-2.4	8.2	3.4	-3.1
C.CARSON	SEA	RB	4	12	10.5	1.5	13.5	1.5	-3.3
C.EDWARDS-HELAIRE	KC	RB	12	10.9	10.4	0.4	11.2	2.3	-4.2
J.WHITE	NE	RB	3	10.4	10.4	0	3.3	4.7	17
A.DILLON	GB	RB	18	10.8	10.3	0.4	10.9	2.1	0.8
J.JEUDY	DEN	WR	10	8.5	10.3	-1.8	0.2	5.6	58.8
T.BOYD	CIN	WR	20	10.8	10.3	0.5	0.2	5.7	40.9
M.VALDES-SCANTLING	GB	WR	11	7.9	10.2	-2.3	0	5	89.5
K.TONEY	NYG	WR	10	8.2	10.2	-2	0.3	5.7	33.9
R.BATEMAN	BAL	WR	12	8.6	10.2	-1.6	0	5.7	49.8
T.HIGBEE	LA	TE	18	9.3	10.2	-0.9	0	5.5	30.8
N.FANT	DEN	TE	16	9.9	10.2	-0.2	0	5.6	34.4
D.BOOKER	NYG	RB	16	9	10.2	-1.2	9.1	2.8	-0.3
K.GOLLADAY	NYG	WR	14	6.4	10.1	-3.8	0	5.4	73.6
T.PATRICK	DEN	WR	16	9.8	10.1	-0.3	0	5.3	62.2
A.ROBINSON	CHI	WR	12	7.3	10	-2.8	0	5.5	60.7
H.RUGGS	LV	WR	7	12.1	10	2.1	0.4	5.1	86.9
C.KMET	CHI	TE	17	7.1	10	-2.8	0.1	5.5	42.4
D.GOEDERT	PHI	TE	16	11.3	10	1.3	0	5.5	49.9
V.JEFFERSON	LA	WR	21	9	9.9	-1	0.1	5	70
S.MICHEL	LA	RB	21	7.5	9.9	-2.4	11.1	1.8	-1.3
R.STEVENSON	NE	RB	13	9.6	9.9	-0.3	11.1	1.7	-0.5
J.COOK	LAC	TE	16	8.3	9.8	-1.6	0	5.2	42.8
D.FOREMAN	TEN	RB	10	10.1	9.8	0.2	13.8	1.1	0.2
O.BECKHAM	LA	WR	18	9.7	9.8	-0.1	0	5.1	59.2
D.FREEMAN	BAL	RB	16	9.2	9.7	-0.5	8.4	2.6	2.6
T.POLLARD	DAL	RB	16	10.1	9.6	0.5	8.6	3	0.4
B.AIYUK	SF	WR	20	9.6	9.5	0.1	0.3	5	48.7
J.JONES	TEN	WR	11	8.4	9.5	-1	0	5	57.4
A.MATTISON	MIN	RB	16	7.9	9.4	-1.5	8.6	2.4	0.2
E.SANDERS	BUF	WR	16	9.1	9.4	-0.3	0.1	4.8	71.1
C.HUBBARD	CAR	RB	17	8.1	9.4	-1.3	10.2	2.1	0.9
M.CALLAWAY	NO	WR	17	8.9	9.3	-0.4	0	4.9	62.4
P.FREIERMUTH	PIT	TE	17	9.3	9.3	0	0	4.9	25.4
T.CONKLIN	MIN	TE	17	8.1	9.2	-1.1	0	5.1	27.2
Q.CEPHUS	DET	WR	5	9.9	9.2	0.6	0	4.6	51.2
W.FULLER	MIA	WR	2	4.3	9.1	-4.8	0	4	75
Z.MOSS	BUF	RB	14	7.5	9	-1.5	7.1	2.3	1.9
D.KNOX	BUF	TE	17	11.3	9	2.3	0	4.7	35.6
K.OSBORN	MIN	WR	17	9.3	9	0.4	0.1	4.8	50.3
M.HARDMAN	KC	WR	20	8.9	9	0	0.7	4.6	32.9
E.ENGRAM	NYG	TE	15	6.8	8.9	-2	0.1	4.9	26.9
R.MOORE	ARI	WR	15	7.8	8.7	-0.9	1.2	4.7	7.5
T.JOHNSON	NYJ	RB	16	7.3	8.7	-1.4	3.9	3.4	8.3
H.HENRY	NE	TE	18	9.4	8.7	0.7	0	4.4	43.5
D.AMENDOLA	HOU	WR	8	8.6	8.6	0	0	4.8	40.1
D.JOHNSON	HOU	RB	13	6.3	8.5	-2.2	5.3	3.2	7.5
J.O'SHAUGHNESSY	JAX	TE	7	7.2	8.5	-1.3	0	4.9	32.3
G.DAVIS	BUF	WR	18	10.6	8.5	2.1	0	4.2	59.9
K.DRAKE	LV	RB	12	8.5	8.5	0.1	5.3	3.3	5.9
K.BOURNE	NE	WR	18	11.6	8.4	3.2	0.7	4.3	36.3
D.HARRIS	NO	WR	13	7.2	8.4	-1.2	0.4	4.5	45.4
R.PENNY	SEA	RB	10	12.2	8.3	3.9	11.9	0.8	-1.6
Z.PASCAL	IND	WR	16	5.9	8.3	-2.4	0.1	4.3	38
D.SLAYTON	NYG	WR	13	5.3	8.2	-3	0.1	4.5	59.5
K.GAINWELL	PHI	RB	17	8.2	8.2	0	4.1	3.2	5.1
K.RAYMOND	DET	WR	16	8.3	8.2	0.1	0.3	4.4	45.3
L.THOMAS	WAS	TE	6	8.9	8.2	0.7	0	4.2	39
R.BURKHEAD	HOU	RB	16	6.5	8.2	-1.7	7.6	2	3.1
Z.JONES	LV	WR	18	6.8	8.2	-1.3	0.1	4.3	59.3
C.WILSON	DAL	WR	17	9.4	8.2	1.2	0.2	4.2	43.1
D.PEOPLES-JONES	CLE	WR	14	7.8	8.1	-0.3	0	4.1	63.9
N.COLLINS	HOU	WR	14	6	8.1	-2.1	0	4.3	45.5
G.EVERETT	SEA	TE	15	7.9	7.8	0	0.2	4.2	22.1
B.BERRIOS	NYJ	WR	16	7.2	7.7	-0.5	0.4	4.1	20.8
N.AGHOLOR	NE	WR	16	6.6	7.7	-1.1	0.1	4.1	58.5
A.LAZARD	GB	WR	16	9	7.6	1.5	0.2	3.8	41.2
M.INGRAM	NO	RB	14	4.4	7.6	-3.2	7.4	2.1	-1.2
J.AGNEW	JAX	WR	10	7	7.5	-0.5	0.7	4	28.8
B.EDWARDS	LV	WR	17	6.8	7.4	-0.6	0.1	3.8	52.1
T.COLEMAN	NYJ	RB	11	4.7	7.4	-2.7	7.8	1.5	-1.6
A.COLLINS	SEA	RB	11	6.3	7.4	-1.1	9.9	0.9	0.2
Q.WATKINS	PHI	WR	18	6.8	7.3	-0.6	0.1	3.8	52.3
N.HINES	IND	RB	17	6.6	7.3	-0.7	3.3	3.4	6.6
B.PRINGLE	KC	WR	20	8.3	7.3	1	0	3.9	37.5
R.MCCLOUD	PIT	WR	17	4.1	7.2	-3.1	0.1	4	25.5
C.UZOMAH	CIN	TE	20	8.2	7.1	1	0	4.1	18
A.HOOPER	CLE	TE	16	5.8	7.1	-1.3	0	3.8	20.5
T.HILTON	IND	WR	10	7.4	7.1	0.3	0	3.6	45.3
J.HOWARD	PHI	RB	8	5.8	7	-1.2	9.3	0.8	0.6
S.WATKINS	BAL	WR	13	5.4	7	-1.6	0	3.8	49.5
L.MURRAY	BAL	RB	14	7.4	7	0.4	8.6	0.9	0.1
C.HYDE	JAX	RB	12	3.8	6.9	-3.1	6.3	1.8	3.4
R.SEALS-JONES	WAS	TE	13	5.3	6.9	-1.6	0	3.7	19.8
B.BOLDEN	NE	RB	18	7.3	6.8	0.5	2.6	3.1	2.6
R.TONYAN	GB	TE	8	6.3	6.7	-0.4	0	3.6	32
N.WESTBROOK-IKHINE	TEN	WR	17	6.3	6.7	-0.3	0	3.4	37.2
R.COBB	GB	WR	13	7.2	6.5	0.7	0.1	3.1	23.9
K.HAMLER	DEN	WR	3	4.1	6.5	-2.4	0	3.3	67
J.REAGOR	PHI	WR	18	4.3	6.5	-2.2	0.6	3.3	33.9
D.ARNOLD	JAX	TE	11	5.5	6.5	-1	0	3.6	20.4
D.HILLIARD	TEN	RB	9	6.8	6.5	0.3	5.4	2.1	-1.9
A.HUMPHRIES	WAS	WR	17	4.7	6.5	-1.8	0	3.6	24.5
D.NJOKU	CLE	TE	16	6.7	6.4	0.3	0.1	3.3	26.9
C.BRATE	TB	TE	19	4.5	6.4	-1.8	0	3.3	24.6
A.ABDULLAH	CAR	RB	17	4.8	6.3	-1.5	2.6	2.9	2.4
P.CAMPBELL	IND	WR	6	5.4	6.3	-1	0	3.3	55.7
K.COLE	NYJ	WR	15	5.3	6.3	-1	0	3.3	45
J.MCNICHOLS	TEN	RB	14	5.3	6.2	-0.9	2.9	2.7	0.4
J.JACKSON	LAC	RB	14	6.2	6.1	0	5	1.8	1.4
T.JOHNSON	TB	WR	19	4.3	6.1	-1.8	0	3.4	24.4
A.TRAUTMAN	NO	TE	13	4.9	6.1	-1.2	0	3.3	18.8
O.ZACCHEAUS	ATL	WR	17	5.3	5.9	-0.6	0.1	3.1	28.2
B.SCOTT	PHI	RB	17	6.4	5.9	0.5	5.2	1	-0.7
D.JOHNSON	CLE	RB	17	6.1	5.9	0.2	6.1	1.5	0.4
J.GUYTON	LAC	WR	16	6.1	5.8	0.2	0.4	3	31.4
J.WILSON	SF	RB	11	4.7	5.8	-1.1	7.2	0.7	-0.9
M.WILLIAMS	ARI	TE	5	8.3	5.8	2.5	0	3.4	18
R.HIGGINS	CLE	WR	15	3.8	5.8	-1.9	0	3.1	35.9
J.WASHINGTON	PIT	WR	16	4.8	5.7	-0.9	0.1	2.9	37.4
G.BERNARD	TB	RB	14	5.6	5.7	-0.1	1.5	2.6	2.8
J.PALMER	LAC	WR	17	5.5	5.6	-0.1	0.1	2.9	29.1
J.MCKINNON	KC	RB	16	5.5	5.5	-0.1	2.9	2.3	-2.1
M.GOODWIN	CHI	WR	14	4.1	5.5	-1.4	0.1	2.9	33.9
R.JONES	TB	RB	16	4.9	5.5	-0.5	6.5	0.8	-0.9
R.GRIFFIN	NYJ	TE	14	4.7	5.4	-0.7	0	3	15.9
D.WILLIAMS	CHI	RB	12	5.1	5.3	-0.2	3.3	1.9	3.4
T.WILLIAMS	DET	WR	1	3.4	5.3	-1.9	0	3	13
T.AUSTIN	JAX	WR	13	4	5.2	-1.2	0.2	2.8	25.4
J.SMITH	NE	TE	17	4	5.2	-1.2	0.5	2.6	14.6
D.CARTER	WAS	WR	17	4.7	5.1	-0.4	0.6	2.6	28.5
M.ALIE-COX	IND	TE	17	4.7	5.1	-0.4	0	2.6	26.2
K.HERBERT	CHI	RB	17	4.6	5.1	-0.4	6.1	0.9	-0.5
M.BROWN	MIA	RB	7	3.2	5.1	-1.9	4.7	0.7	-0.3
P.BARBER	LV	RB	11	4.5	5	-0.5	5.1	1.2	1.8
J.TAYLOR	NE	RB	5	3.9	5	-1.1	4	0.8	-0.4
S.AHMED	MIA	RB	12	3.2	5	-1.8	4.6	1.6	4.3
A.OKWUEGBUNAM	DEN	TE	14	5.3	5	0.3	0	2.7	13.1
J.DOYLE	IND	TE	17	4.7	5	-0.3	0	2.5	17.1

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2021 fantasy football expected fantasy points

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expected fantasy points