Welcome to our third Fantasy Football Day Dilemma! Previously, the RSJ staff tackled:
Today, we go deeper. Much deeper. The Wolf asks his boys:
WHICH LATE-ROUND SLEEPER WRS SHOULD YOU DRAFT & FADE IN 2021?
Criteria: The WR must have an ADP of 100 or higher.
THE PICKS:
Marquez Callaway (ADP 170): I swear, I wrote this before Callaway exploded for 5 catches (5 targets), 104 yards, and 2 TDs in roughly a quarter of Preseason Week 2 action. He was at 100 on my Big Board ahead of that game (+160 ECR, +200 ADP at the time), and has since risen to 87 overall (+138 ECR). Callaway’s explosion shouldn’t surprise anyone, as the hype train has been fierce: “go-to man”; “ownership of being the top dog“; “breakout star” are just a few pieces of praise lobbed his way. Unlike lots of puff, Callaway has backed it up on the field. Sure, Michael Thomas will be the No.1 here when he returns (who knows when that’ll be); Alvin Kamara is likely the No.1 until he’s back. But Sean Payton‘s offense has made monsters out of Marques Colston, Lance Moore, and countless other no-name guys. Callaway will be his next breakout, especially with Jameis Winston given the starting role. -The Wolf
Corey Davis (ADP 130): Davis quietly had a productive 2020 season, finishing as the WR32 on points per game in PPR formats. He put up a 65-984-5 line on just 92 targets in 14 games (105 target pace over 16 games) as the second option in Tennessee. Zach Wilson has looked sharp in preseason and has targeted Davis on a mind-boggling 77% of his routes so far. That number won’t hold up, but Davis has clearly established himself as the top target and has a chance to significantly outpace the 105 targets he was on track for last year. I also think Davis’ talent is underrated – he finished 2020 with PFF’s 10th- highest WR grade on the season. – Jackson Barrett
Corey Davis has been targeted on 77% of his routes run this preseason
He is the only WR above 50% 🤯 pic.twitter.com/hcJNQ7T34D
— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) August 23, 2021
Curtis Samuel (ADP 122): Samuel just signed a three-year contract to reunite with OC Scott Turner and HC Ron Rivera in Washington. The last time Samuel played in a Scott Turner ran offense he was ninth in Air Yards in the NFL. Now playing with a QB who loves to air the ball out downfield, don’t be surprised if we get a fifth-year breakout from Samuel just like we did with Devante Parker in 2019. Can someone remind who the starting QB in MIA was in 2019??? – Kendall Brown
Terrace Marshall Jr. (ADP 187): I’m a believer in the Matt Rhule/Joe Brady experiment, and I’m in the camp that Sam Darnold is a legitimate upgrade over Teddy Bridgewater. Darnold fits this system well, and last season showed that Brady’s offense can support 3 wide receivers. Marshall has high draft capital, clear talent, and is the presumed “big slot” in this offense. I think he turns into a reliable weekly flex option who has the upside to be a high-end WR2 if either DJ Moore or Robby Anderson went down to injury. I also like Jakobi Meyers, Corey Davis, and Darnell Mooney. – Tailback Tino
Mike Williams (ADP 108): If Mike Williams will ever breakout, now is the time. New Chargers OC Joe Lombardi carries over his version of Saints’ passing game and stated Williams will fulfill the “X” WR role, the same spot that Michael Thomas manned in New Orleans. Give me Justin Herbert’s clear No. 2 wideout behind a much-improved offensive line and Anthony Lynn nowhere in sight.
Jakobi Meyers (ADP 212): Unquestioned WR1 in New England. New additions make this offense significantly better, and should open up tons of space for Meyers to thrive. Bill may suck at evaluating early-round WRs, but has a clear talent for late-round ex-QB converts, and Meyers could truly be the next great one. Before 2020, Patriots slot WRs had been on pace for 140+ targets & 24% market share in 12/12 seasons. They’ve also finished Top-12 in PPR PPG in 9/12 seasons, while ranking outside the Top-20 in PPG just once. I doubt Meyers sees that much work, but it could be close, especially if Mac Jones takes over. Plus, with zero career touchdowns, all the positive scoring regression in the world coming. Won’t leave drafts without him. – JimboSlice
Cole Beasley (ADP 152): Allen’s go-to chain mover out of the slot is extremely undervalued in PPR leagues. The consistency in coaching staff and personnel ensures another high-powered, Aerial-centric attack. Beasley’s off-field antics may be obnoxious and do create some risk, but this has been overbaked into his price. He’ll be a steady WR3 in reception leagues for a WR6 price. – Ryan Rubinstein
THE FADES:
Michael Pittman Jr. (ADP 115): – To me, what you believe about Michael Pittman really comes down to what you believe about Carson Wentz. The Colts have a very good defense, with an elite offensive line, and a workhorse RB. Frank Reich should rely heavily on his defense and running game, resulting in lower overall team passing volume. Pittman will have his games, but I think his ceiling lies as a streaming option in two flex leagues. – Kendall Brown
Darnell Mooney (ADP 135): Mooney has been generating hype primarily because many expect Justin Fields to lead the Bears offense to new heights. However, according to JJ Zachariason on The Late-Round Podcast, rookie quarterbacks typically only support one pass-catcher for fantasy (Allen Robinson). Pass catchers with rookie quarterbacks also typically underproduce pass catchers with non-rookie quarterbacks. To make matters worse, mobile quarterbacks decrease total passing attempts, which means fewer targets for their receivers. I don’t mind Robinson in 2020, but I don’t want to bet on Justin Fields defying the odds to support a second receiver as a rookie. – Jackson Barrett
Jaguars’ WRs: I don’t think I would want to touch any of the Jaguar’s WRs late in the draft. I just don’t see the upside of betting on an Urban Meyer-led offense who plans on being on one of the most run-heavy teams in the NFL. Even if you pick the right WR out of Shenault, Jones, and Chark….. can you really trust them? Is the upside really that high to make it worth a pick? I’d rather take a swing for the fences than take a WR from a crowded room on a run-heavy team coached by Meyer. -Tailback Tino
Sammy Watkins (ADP 262): Though decent in the short game and over the middle of the field, Lamar is a quarterback who has struggled outside the numbers — troublesome with Watkins as a clear X receiver on the outside who historically avoids the slot. Sammy Watkin’s age and past injury history are also working against. Lamar has also had more time to build chemistry with Mark Andrews and Marquise Brown, while the team also invested a high draft pick in Rashod Bateman. Low-volume, crowded Aerial pies are usually poor fantasy bets. -Ryan Rubinstein
Nelson Agholor (ADP 178): A fool’s gold career year tricked Bill Belichick into signing Nelson Agholor to a two-year, $22 million deal. However, Agholor is not fooling me. The middling wideout had a nice year in Jon Gruden’s offense, where he consistently took the top off the defense for Derek Carr. But with Cam Newton and/or Mac Jones under center in Josh McDaniels’ quick-strike scheme, Agholor will be nothing more than a glorified Demarie Byrd in the Patriots offense. If I’m taking any pass-catchers in this offense, I’ll roll with Jakobi Meyers or James White. – CJay
Russell Gage: I get people thinking with Julio gone, bump up Gage and increase his targets/numbers. I just don’t think he’s that good — he actually ranked 22nd with 110 targets last year, and was incredibly inefficient. Among WRs with 100+ targets, only AJ Green had fewer yards. Plus, Gage isn’t even a lock to get those — Pitts will almost assuredly end up their true #2 while Ridley goes absolutely berserk. In a more run-heavy scheme, I can’t imagine Gage sees the volume to matter.
What are your toughest Draft Day Dilemmas? Send it on in to The Wolf (@RotoStreetWolf) and we’ll tackle it with our staff!
