Aaron Rodgers hung up the Jeopardy! mic and decided to arrive at Packers training camp on Tuesday afternoon following a report saying he planned to play for the Packers this and only this season.
The timing could not have been any better, because Rodgers, Davante Adams, Aaron Jones, Robert Tonyan, and the rest of the offensive weapons will be ready to dominate fantasy football yet again. The drama has ceased in Green Bay and the group has shot back up The Wolf’s 2021 Fantasy Rankings & Big Board for what Rodgers and Adams are calling “The Last Dance.”
AARON RODGERS LOCKED-IN QB1
Last year’s MVP was clearly motivated by the team botching its draft and selecting his future replacement, Jordan Love, in the first round. The 36-year-old quarterback tossed a league-leading 48 touchdowns and finished as 2020 fantasy’s QB3.
Now back in Green Bay for a final season, Rodgers is set up to be a fantasy stud once again, with most of last year’s weaponry returning. Adams is the alpha, Jones is the workhorse, AJ Dillon will replace some of Jamaal Williams‘ touches, and the team added Clemson wideout Amari Rodgers and old friend Randall Cobb to the yearly WR2/WR3 battle between Marques-Valdes Scantling and Allen Lazard.
On the downside, he lost All-Pro center Corey Linsley and solid right tackle Rick Wagner. The line should remain solid with David Bakhtiari anchoring the group, but the losses could cause some issues early on.
With the drama behind him, Rodgers rounds out Tier 2 at QB8, behind Justin Herbert and Russell Wilson.
DAVANTE ADAMS OVERALL WR1
Davante Adams is back where he belongs, as fantasy’s WR1 with Rodgers back at the helm. Amid the uncertainty, Adams was falling outside of Tier 1, behind the likes of Tyreek Hill, Stefon Diggs, DeAndre Hopkins, and even AJ Brown before the Julio Jones trade.
Due to a lack of faith in the other wideouts and Adams’ elite skill-set, Rodgers peppers his alpha whenever he is on the field. Adams had a league-leading 33 percent target share in 2020 and he’s led all players in red-zone targets (150), red-zone receptions (99), and red-zone touchdowns (53), per PFF.
Adams is also coming off a crazy 115-1,374-18 season in only 14 games last season. The 18 touchdowns will likely regress, but Adams should hit double-digit touchdowns for the fifth time in six seasons.
THE OTHER PASS-CATCHERS GET A BOOST
As for MVS and Lazard, the Packers added Amari Rodgers in the draft and they traded for Randall Cobb to round out the wide receiver room.
As usual, MVS will be a boom-or-bust DFS/fantasy option and Lazard showed some promise in 2020 before getting shelved for a strange core muscle injury that required surgery. Prior to the surgery, Lazard had a career-best game against the Saints, where he put up 6-146-1. The two wideouts are frustrating, inconsistent fantasy options, but they should out-produce their respective ADPs.
Like the other two, Amari Rodgers and Cobb could pop randomly throughout the year, but neither should be prioritized in redraft.
Lazard lands at WR65 (+9 vs ECR), while MVS stands at WR79 (-2 vs ECR) on our 2021 Rankings & Big Board. Neither Rodgers nor Cobb currently register on The Wolf’s Big Board.
CAN BIG BOB REPLICATE HIS 2020 BREAKOUT?
Then we have Robert Tonyan, who exploded out of absolutely nowhere to finish 2020 fantasy’s TE3. While no one expects Tonyan to replicate his 11 touchdown season, who is to know whether or not Tonyan will get more involved between the 20s in 2021.
The former Indiana State wide receiver has the skill-set to be a dependable tight end (Indiana State’s leader in career touchdown receptions, single-season touchdown receptions, and most consecutive games with a reception), but he finished 23rd in tight end targets last season.
No competition was added to the tight end room and the team did not add any big-bodied red zone weapons. Instead of saying Tonyan won’t replicate his 11-touchdown season, why not say he’s ascending as a player?
The Wolf ranked Big Bob as his TE11 (-1 vs the ECR).
AARON JONES RETURNS TO 1ST ROUND BEAST
Aaron Jones inked a massive four-year, $48 million contract to return to the Packers.
Still, the fantasy “steak” in Green Bay is quite hearty, and arguably the best spot for Jones’ 2021 fantasy outlook.
Over the past two seasons under Matt LaFleur, Jones has finished as the RB2 (318 FPs, 19.9 FPPG) and RB5 (257, 18.4). He’s a pristine fit in LaFleur’s zone-based scheme, patiently allowing holes to develop before bursting through with his trademark zip.
Moreover, the Packers’ whole offense took an enormous leap in LaFleur’s second year, ranking first in points per game (31.5) and overall red zone efficiency. Sure, Jones’s absurd 19 total TDs (2019) regressed to 11, but he still ranked 7th among RBs in house calls. His weekly floor was also significantly higher, as Jones fell outside the Top-24 RBs and below double-digit FPs just twice (14%), compared to five times (31%).
Plus, Jones’ target-upside is at an all-time high with Jamaal Williams gone and draining D’Andre Swift’s fantasy outlook in Detroit. Williams leaves behind 194 routes, 35 targets, 31 receptions, and 236 receiving yards. Sure, A.J. Dillon can catch. Thunder Thighs also saw just two targets all year on a meager 32 routes, after hauling in a grand total of 21 receptions in college.
In short: Jones could hit 100 targets in 2021.
Speaking of Dillon, Jones’ return obviously caps his sophomore ceiling. This monster had genuine RB1 upside if he emerged as the Packers’ RB1.
Still, many will bury the former B.C. Bruiser far too soon, and there’s plenty of (quad) meat on this bone with Williams gone. Dillon should slide right into the RB2 slot, and is built for goalline duties in 2020’s top-ranked offense. Jones likely remains the first option at the stripe, but don’t be surprised if Dillon approaches 6-8 scores himself.
Plus, Jones has missed time in every season outside 2019. Last season, Williams finished with 21.4 (RB6) and 18.2 (RB8) FPs in two spot-starts, while Dillon himself rumbled for 25.9 FPs when featured in Week 16 (21 carries, 124 yards, 2 TDs).
So no, RB1 Dillon won’t be a thing in 2021. Still, Dillon will be the ultimate “handcuff-with-benefits,” and his dynasty value likely won’t be lower than right now. Might be worth it to make a stab.
SUMMARY
We can make fun of “The Last Dance” from a real football standpoint because Rodgers has one ring and a handful of playoff losses. But from a fantasy perspective, this will likely be the last time we have Rodgers, Adams, and Jones making fantasy magic together. Take advantage of this situation, toss together a few stacks in best ball and in DFS, and watch them all ball out one final time.
