2018 Daily Fantasy: FanDuel NFL Week 16 Picks, Sleepers and Strategy - Roto Street Journal
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2018 Daily Fantasy: FanDuel NFL Week 16 Picks, Sleepers and Strategy

Welcome back to FanDuel Picks Week 16, your one-stop shop for the best daily fantasy football advice. Did ANYONE on the Week 15 team have a good week? I am not even attempting to be hyperbolic. Sure, Joe Mixon chipped in with 130 yards and 2 touchdowns for 26 FanDuel points, Jaylen Samuel (18.2) continued filling in admirably for the injured James Conner, and the Minnesota Vikings DST recorded 9 sacks and generated 13 FanDuel points. But after that? My lord, did the top end talent really lay goose eggs across the board. I am not even going to get into that debacle in Indianapolis with the Cowboys scoring exactly 0 points, crushing my fantasy hopes and dreams across multiple leagues. I’d say onward and upward like I normally do, but some weeks are just to scarring. As a note, these picks are based on Sunday only leagues, so players on Thursday, Saturday, Sunday night, and Monday night will be ignored.

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Quarterbacks

  • Deshaun Watson, QB, Houston Texans ($8,000) – With Lamar Miller (ankle) in doubt Week 16, the Houston Texas will be severely undermanned at the running back position. No worries, all world, versatile quarterback Deshaun Watson can do just as much damage on the ground as he can through the air. Watson has topped 30 rushing yards in 3 of his past 4 games, giving daily fantasy players a comfortable floor to rely on. In Week 16, Watson faces an Eagles defense that allows the second most passing yards per game after allowing 794 passing yards the past two weeks to Jared Goff and Dak Prescott.
  • Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills ($7,700) – RSJ’s fantasy darling, Josh Allen has made the Bills offense relevant again. With his blazing speed, Allen has generated 130 rushing yards or scored a touchdown in 4 straight games, giving him a high, reliable floor. And while his passing game needs plenty of work, the rushing upside along make him a weekly back-end QB1, at worst. In Week 16, the Bills square off against a reeling Patriot team that is vulnerable to running quarterbacks.

Running Back

  • Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Dallas Cowboys ($8,800) – One of the lone bright spots for Dallas last week, Ezekiel Elliott was again a volume monster, receiving 25 touches and generating 128 total yards. Elliott has received 25 touches now in 6 straight games, locking him in as a top 3 RB each week, at worst. In Week 16, Zeke and the Cowboys project as a 7 point favorite (positive running game script) against a Tampa Bay defense allowing the third most rushing touchdowns and fifth most fantasy points to opposing running backs.
  • Joe Mixon, RB, Cincinnati Bengals ($8,200) – No Andy Dalton. No A.J. Green. No Tyler Boyd. No problem. Joe Mixon cannot be stopped right now, and is becoming the true volume monster we all expect him to be in the Bengals offense. Operating as the clear focal point of Cincy’s offensive attack, the Bengals have fed Mixon 53 carries over the past two weeks, and he has chipped in with 7 catches as well. On those 60 touches, Mixon has generated 268 yards and 3 touchdowns. With that same volume against a Browns team allowing the second most rushing touchdowns and the ninth most fantasy points to opposing running backs, Mixon against could far outpace his projected FanDuel value.
  • Marlon Mack, RB, Indianapolis Colts ($7,000) – Operating with a substantial lead all day, the Colts fed Marlon Max all afternoon against the sluggish Dallas defense. Mack handled a whopping 27 carries, rushing for 139 yards and 2 scores against a very good Cowboys defense, and in Week 16 the Colts are favored by 9 against the Giants, so another positive game script should be in store for Mack. The Giants ranks in the bottom third of the league in terms of touchdowns allowed on the ground, and allow the fifth most rushing yards per game and the seventh most fantasy points to opposing running backs.
  • Jamaal Williams, RB, Green Bay Packers ($5,800) RSJ’s #1 waiver claimJamaal Williams could be in store for quite a workload Sunday. In relief of Aaron Jones (MCL) Week 15, Williams turned his 16 touches (4 receptions) into 97 yards and a score. Even in a touch matchup on the road against the Jets, Williams pricing, combined with his involvement in the run and pass games, make him one of the better value plays Week 16.

Wide Receiver

  • Michael Thomas, WR, New Orleans Saints ($8,300) – These next two picks fall under the obligatory “highest projected game score of the day, with has shootout potential,” category. While Drew Brees looks more like Nathan Peterman over the past 3 weeks (2:3 TD:INT ratio, 531 total passing yards), each of those games was on the road, where Brees has played significantly worse this year. On Sunday, Brees gets the Pittsburgh Steelers at home, in the dome, where Brees has completed 77.7% of his passes with a 20:1 TD:INT ratio. Those better passing stats can only mean good things for Michael Thomas, who has seen his production (and FanDuel pricing) slip due to Brees’ recent horrendous play. With his price hovering around $8,300, Thomas is a bargain.
  • Juju Smith-Schuster, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers ($8,000) – And on the other side of the ball, Pittsburgh will look to keep up with the high flying Saints offense by chucking it all over the field against a New Orleans secondary allowing the most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. Juju Smith-Schuster has been quite there target hog recently, topping 9 targets in five straight games, and recording double digit targets in 4 of his past 5 games. With Marshon Lattimore covering Antonio Brown Sunday, look for Smith-Schuster to operate in more open space, with the potential for a gigantic Sunday.
  • Robby Anderson, WR, New York Jets ($5,900) – Robby Anderson may not only be a sneaky player that will help you win your fantasy league, but he could also help you win tons of cash in FanDuel this week. Anderson is seeing a ridiculous target share with Sam Darnold under center, and has scored a touchdown in each of the past two weeks, topping 15.5 FanDuel points in each contest. The Packers secondary ranks in the bottom five at containing opposing wideouts, so Anderson could enjoy his best game yet on Sunday.
  • Josh Reynolds, WR, Los Angeles Rams ($5,300) – With Brandin Cooks and Robert Woods likely both receiving the Patrick Peterson treatment at times during Sunday’s game, and Todd Gurley (knee) just a little hobbled, I fully expect Josh Reynolds to take on a larger share of the offense. Kinda like he did last week. While Reynolds only caught 5 balls Week 15, he ranked third on the team in receiving yards (70) and second in targets (12) to Gurley’s 13. Projected as nearly 2 touchdown favorite, Gurley will likely have a more limited role than usual. So if Reynolds can see those 12 targets again he should be more than worth the investment at just $5,300.

Tight End

  • Zach Ertz, TE, Philadelphia Eagles ($7,400) – What better time to pick the highest priced tight end option the week he scores a season low 3.7 FanDuel points. Zach Ertz let me, and roughly 200,000,000 other fantasy players down Week 15 with his dud against the LA Rams. And while his lack of connection with Nick Foles is concerning, he still saw 7 looks. In Week 16, the Eagles take on a tough Texans secondary that has allowed the 7th most points to opposing tight ends. Look for Foles to target Ertz in the middle instead of operating outside the numbers.
  • Evan Engram, TE, New York Giants ($5,700) – With back to back games of 75+ receiving yards, Evan Engram is fantasy relevant again, and climbing into the top tier TE rankings. Last week we mentioned his low pricing, combined with his talent and upside, make him a great pick, and we can use that same logic against as he is priced until $6,000 still against a Colts defense that struggles against opposing tight ends.

Defense

  • Lose Angeles Rams DST ($4,900) – When the Rams first squared off against Arizona Week 2, the Los Angeles Rams DST shut out the Cardinals. I would say that is a solid base to operate off of. The Rams currently projected as the biggest favorite Week 16 (13.5 points), and the Cardinals have the second lowest implied team total at just 16 points.
  • Atlanta Falcons DST ($3,400) – With Cam Newton shut down for the remainder of the season, Taylor Heinicke will take over quarterback duties in Carolina. Who? Exactly. Heinicke has completed 3 of 5 passes in his two year career, so the Atlanta Falcons DST could make for a nice buy low option if you are looking to save money on defense. Atlanta has registered double digit FanDuel outputs in 2 of its past 3 contests, and could enjoy an abundance of success against this backup.

And that’s a wrap for Fanduel Week 16 analysis. Remember to always look at the matchups and Vegas totals, which are always telling, and do not be afraid to admit they know more than you, because they usually do. Until next time, good luck and don’t forget to tip me 10% of your earnings. Thanks in advance.

To contact me with any questions or general fantasy football discussion, please email me at redsocker45@gmail.com or tweet me @AJGamballer.

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