2018 Fantasy Football Week 6 Market Report

Keep track of the week's risers, fallers and Penny Stocks.

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Jordan Howard Fumbling Away Lead RB Role as Tarik Cohen Shines Again

The Jordan Howard nightmare grew even darker on Sunday, as the once-dominant tailback failed to top 5 FPs for the second straight week thanks to a dreadful goalline fumble. Versus the Dolphins, Howard had 69 yards on 14 carries, which was actually one of his more efficient per-carry outputs. Yet, he continued to be outshined by Tarik Cohen, who exploded again for 121 total yards and a score on 12 touches (7 catches). On the year, Howards snap rate has steadily declined from 73% to 63% to 54% to 51%, while Cohen’s rates have climbed each week.

The overall offense, which has now topped 450 yards in back-to-back weeks, is clearly more dynamic with Cohen’s versatility and game-changing ability. Thus, this now 50/50 backfield split seems likely to remain for the year, if not shift in favor of the diminutive dynamo. Howard’s value is clearly at an all-time low, so tossing out some low-ball offers isn’t the worst idea considering his high game-to-game TD upside in this ascending offense. Yet, he also feels like an “Amari Cooper” kind of fantasy cancer: enough upside (and name value) to not bench, which ultimately kills your team far more than it actually helps.

Thus, moving forward, I’d much rather own Cohen. He can score all over the field, is more creatively used, and is finally flashing the “jack-of-all trades” usage we’ve long been predicting. Moreover, he’s clearly game-flow proof, as Cohen’s been most used in neutral or negative pass-game scripts these past two weeks. With this explosion, Cohen eliminated any concerns this was just a result of the perfect matchup versus the Bucs, while casting further shade on Howard’s extremely murky moving-forward fantasy value.

Is Jarvis Landry a Fantasy Buy Low? Surprisingly Sputtering with Baker Mayfield

Jarvis Landry’s elite intermediate route skills and Baker Mayfield’s superb accuracy were supposed to be a fantasy football match in heaven. Instead, Landry’s been shockingly ineffective over Mayfield’s first three starts, and never moreso than this past Sunday versus the Chargers. Landry hauled in just 2-of-9 targets for a paltry 11 yards — both his lowest totals since 2015. Despite seeing a healthy 29 targets, Landry’s mustered just 11 catches (37% rate) for only 114 yards in Mayfield’s three starts. He’s the WR24 on the season, and the WR34 since Mayfield took the reigns… but still makes for an intriguing Fantasy Buy Low. Here’s why:

For one, Landry’s usage has improved (as predicted), despite the stats not yet reflecting this. Under Todd Haley, “Juice” has indeed seen his route tree grow more diverse and vertical. His average depth of target (aDot) and yards per reception (YPR) have risen from 6.3 and 8.8 in 2017, to 10.2 and 12.6 in 2018. While this hasn’t yet translated on the field, Landry could become a yardage monster if/once he and Mayfield click.

Which should be far easier in the upcoming weeks thanks to an absolutely glorious schedule. Leading into his Week 11 Bye, Landry will square off with Tampa Bay (2nd most FPs to WRs), Pittsburgh (4th), Kansas City (14th… but clearly awful), and Atlanta (5th). All of those games project as Landry-favorable scripts.

Betting on Landry is also a bet on Mayfield, which isn’t easy to stomach. Yet, both the QB and WR so much natural ability, and currently depressed overall fantasy value after the latest dud, that Buying Low feels awfully smart right now.

Odell Beckham’s Fantasy Value Being Tanked by Awful Eli Manning

The misery continues! After finally emerging for an explosive 27 FPs in Week 5, Odell regressed to catch just 6-of-10 passes for a scoreless 44 yards, watching his Giants’ fall to 1-5 in a Week 6 loss to the Eagles. More concerning, Beckham was frequently jawing his teammates, coaches, and *gasp* water coolers, and continues to mentally check himself out due to awful surrounding play from Eli Manning. 

Matched up with the generous Eagles CB Jalen Mills, Beckham seemed ready to finally take off in 2018 and begin reaching his limitless ceiling. Unfortunately, disgusting Eli had other designs. He underthrew any pathetic deep ball shots, missed him on wide open intermediate looks, and is just incapable of accuracy on any throw beyond 10 yards.

Indeed, Beckham’s upcoming schedule is incredibly soft, with 4 of his next 6 matchups versus bottom-10 defenses against WRs. Still, genuinely advocating to Buy Low into Beckham is tough as long as Eli is under center. He failed to take advantage of juicy matchups versus New Orleans (worst-ranked versus WRs) and now the Eagles. Plus, his continued sideline antics and off-field distractions are only hurting his appeal among the coaching staff and his teammates. Even if they wanted to grease the squeaky wheel, Eli is incapable, which should keep Beckham checked out often. Of course, Beckham’s upside will always exist with his limitless talent, and if you have a deep bench and the flexibility to absorb the low floor, he’s worth a stab. But don’t overextend expecting the OBJ of old, at least without a QB change

Corey Davis Dragged Down by Marcus Mariota and the Pathetic Titans Offense

Make no mistake about it… Corey Davis is talented. But, it’s tough to make plays when his quarterback can’t even get a pass off or be accurate with his throws. We were pretty high on Mike Vrabel’s offensive coordinator hire of Matt LaFleur, who was the first true branch of Sean McVay’s coaching tree. However, the offense has been an unmitigated disaster. Although Marcus Mariota might still be dealing with an elbow injury, he’s just not very good right now. Sure, one could point to him getting sacked 11 times in Week 7, but if you look at his passing chart, he’s basically cut the field in half — which is making his No. 1 wide receiver borderline useless. Outside of his 9-161-1 game in Week 4, Davis’ results come directly from his inept surrounding talent.

Even though the Titans have had one of the worst offenses in the league. Davis could be the definition of a buy-low candidate. He’s been targeted an impressive 49 times and has garnered a lofty 41.33 percent of his team’s air yards. The offensive line isn’t nearly as bad as it looked against Baltimore, and although Mariota has yet to live up to his high expectations, he shouldn’t be as bad as he’s performed. If you have faith in Mariota improving under LaFleur, the targets will continue to come his way. If you need a very cheap receiver with high-upside, throw out a bench player offer to a disgruntled Davis owner.

Nyheim Hines Drops TD Pass, Becomes Afterthought in Marlon Mack’s Solid Return

With Marlon Mack missing the past couple of games due to a hamstring injury, the Colts extensively used little Nyheim Hines in every way possible. Against the Patriots in Week 5, he was a do-it-all back, totaling 45 yards on 15 carries and more importantly, 45 yards on seven receptions. That usage catapulted him as a weekly Flex starter in fantasy… that was until Marlon Mack reappeared just a week later. Even with the scoreboard indicating another heavy-utilization week for Hines, he dropped a would-be touchdown and then got his ass stapled to the bench. Hines did barely out-snap Mack, but he was out-touched by the second year back 14-to-6. Moving forward, Mack looks like the player to own in this committee, while Hines might be stuck in a limited and inconsistent pass-catching role. 

We all knew the 5-foot-9 (generously listed) back would not continue with the extreme usage that he saw in New England, but no one saw him getting only six touches in a game in which the Colts trailed for the majority of the afternoon. He did drop a would-be touchdown; however, Mack had an early drop that resulted in a pick-six. Mack’s potential three-down talent should make him a top option on the Week 7 Waiver Wire, since he’s only owned in 26 percent of Yahoo leagues. On the other hand, you should be worried if you are a Hines’ owner.

Continue to the next page for the Week 6 Penny Stocks 

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