Week four is in the books and we are officially a quarter of the way through the NFL regular season. At this point we have a solid idea of who players are and how teams prefer to use them. That being said, the NFL is anything but predictable. Any moment the equivalent of a surprise onside kick could be booted your way and Roto Street Journal is here to help you adjust on the fly.
Last week I once again had far more hits than misses. I’m proud to have predicted the collapse of “Fitzmagic,” and the emergence of guys like Sterling Shepard, John Brown and Giovani Bernard. However, the tight end position remains a crapshoot. Last week I foolishly suggested benching Jared Cook and George Kittle. Both players found the endzone and went over 100 yards receiving. I won’t make that mistake again.
Let me remind you that these lists consist of players who aren’t obvious. I shouldn’t have to tell you to start the Antonio Browns, Aaron Rodgers and Todd Gurleys of the world. This article revolves around players who haven’t yet reached “stud” status, and thus require weekly consideration for your lineup.
I make these suggestions based on each player’s weekly matchups, surrounding talent and in-game usage. While predicting the future is anything but easy, using these tools can help us make better choices when determining which players we start or sit from week to week.
Start ‘Em
Quarterback
Ben Roethlisberger:
After a disappointing performance last week, Roethlisberger will bounce back at home against the Falcons. Atlanta has given up the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. The Falcons’ offense is the sixth-highest scoring unit in the league, which should lead to a fantasy friendly shootout in Pittsburgh.
Blake Bortles:
Twice in four games this season Bortles has thrown multiple touchdowns while accumulating over 375 passing yards. I believe he will approach those heights again this week versus a leaky Chiefs defense. Kansas City has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks and the second-most passing yards in the NFL.
Running Back
James Conner:
Conner set season lows in yards from scrimmage (43) and touches (12) last week and hasn’t reached the endzone since week-two. He has a prime opportunity to rebound on Sunday against an Atlanta defense that has surrendered the third-most fantasy points (PPR) to opposing running backs. The Falcons are especially weak against pass-catching ‘backs, which bodes well for Conner. The second-year rusher has more receiving yards than rushing over the past three weeks.
T.J. Yeldon:
No team has allowed more fantasy points (PPR) to opposing backfields than the Chiefs. With Fournette struggling to stay healthy, Yeldon has played 61.9% of the Jaguars’ offensive snaps this season. Kansas City has given up an NFL high 5.7 yards per carry (YPC), and the third most rushing touchdowns (5) in the league.
Aaron Jones:
Since returning from his two-game suspension Jones has drastically outplayed the competition in his backfield. Jones’ 6.3 YPC is far superior to that of Jamaal Williams (3.4) or Ty Montgomery (4.5). After leading the Packers’ running backs in snaps last week, Jones will face a Lions defense that has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points (PPR) to opposing rushers.
Wide Receiver
JuJu Smith-Schuster:
Don’t overreact to one underwhelming performance. After eclipsing 100 yards receiving in each of the first three games, Smith-Schuster managed just 60 yards on four catches last week against the Ravens. Nonetheless, Smith-Schuster still drew eleven targets in that contest, and is averaging over twelve targets per game thus far. Expect the youngster to bounce back at home against a Falcons defense that has surrendered the seventh-most fantasy points (PPR) to opposing receivers.
Calvin Ridley:
While Ridley’s 24 touchdown pace is unsustainable, the 7.6 targets per game he’s seen over the past three weeks certainly isn’t. Atlanta’s prolific offense and injury decimated defense has led to an abundance of shootouts, which has benefited Ridley owners. This week the Falcons play a Steelers defense that has given up the third-most fantasy points (PPR) to opposing receivers.
Mike Williams:
Williams is averaging 17 yards per catch, which currently ranks eighth amongst wide receivers with double digit receptions. He’s earned the trust of Philip Rivers by making contested catches on a regular basis. This week the Chargers are at home to face a Raiders defense that is allowing the fifth-most yards per pass attempt (8.2) and the ninth-most fantasy points (PPR) to opposing receivers.
Tight End
Jared Cook:
Two big games have catapulted Cook to first amongst tight ends in receiving yards (370) and fantasy points (PPR). Both those performances came during games in which the Raiders gave up 30 or points to opposing teams. This week Oakland faces a Chargers team which is eighth in scoring (27.8 PPG). Cook should be busy as the Raiders try to keep up with the high-powered Chargers offense.
Vance McDonald:
Over the past two games McDonald has caught all nine of his targets for 174 yards and a touchdown. After missing week-one, McDonald has seen his snap percentage rise in every proceeding week. This Sunday Pittsburgh is at home to take on the offensively gifted Falcons in what should be a high-scoring affair.
Defense
Tennessee Titans:
The Bills have scored the second-fewest points (12.5 PPG), accumulated the second-fewest yards (220.8 YPG) and have the fifth-most turnovers (7) in the NFL. Meanwhile, the Titans have allowed the sixth-fewest points per game in the league (18.2). Start the Tennessee if you can get them.
Denver Broncos:
Since scoring 48 points in week-one, the Jets have mustered up just 41 points total over their last three games. New York’s eight turnovers are the second most in the NFL. I anticipate Denver’s defense to make short work of rookie quarterback, Sam Darnold, and this underwhelming Jets offense.
Sit ‘Em
Quarterback
Andy Dalton:
Dalton is averaging over 299 passing yards per game this season and has thrown multiple touchdown passes every week. He’ll have a hard time reaching those number this Sunday against a much improve Dolphins defense. Miami has surrendered the fourth-fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks and lead the league in interceptions (9).
Baker Mayfield:
Those who started Mayfield last week in hopes of capturing some magic had to be disappointed. It wasn’t all Mayfield’s fault, as his team dropped nine passes, including one that ricocheted off his receiver’s hands and went for a pick-six. This week Cleveland faces a Ravens defense that has allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.
Running Back
Dalvin Cook:
In his first game back from a hamstring last week injury Cook played just eighteen snaps last week. This Sunday he faces an Eagles defense that has allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points (PPR) to opposing backfields. Philadelphia has allowed the fewest rushing yards in the NFL and the second lowest YPC (3.4)
Lamar Miller:
Miller has seen a dip in touches each week as the season has gone on. After playing 76% of the offensive snaps through the first three games, Miller played just 53% last week as Alfred Blue became more involved. This Sunday the Texans play a Cowboys defense that has given up the fifth-fewest YPC (3.6).
Chris Carson:
A hip injury forced Carson to sit last week after racking up 124 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown in week-three. He is expected to return this week but faces a Rams team that in second in the league in scoring (35 PPG). All those points force opposing team to abandon the run in lieu of a pass-heavy attack as they attempt to catch up.
Wide Receiver
Sammy Watkins:
Watkins left last week’s game early with a hamstring injury. While it appears he is on track to play this week, hamstring injuries have a knack of lingering. We’ve already seen Cook and Fournette exit their comeback attempts early because their hamstring simply wasn’t ready, and the same could happen to Watkins. It doesn’t help that the Chiefs play a Jaguars defense that has surrendered the third-fewest fantasy points to opposing receivers (PPR).
Devin Funchess:
The Giants have given up the fewest fantasy points (PPR) to opposing wide receivers. The four touchdown passes NYG has allowed are the second-fewest in the NFL. Somehow New York held Michael Thomas to four catches for 47 yards a week ago. The odds are against Funchess this week.
Marquise Goodwin:
It has been a rough start to the season for Goodwin and the 49ers. He managed just two catches for 24 yards last week with backup quarterback, C.J. Beathard, at the helm. This Sunday he faces a Cardinals defense that has surrendered the fifth-fewest fantasy points (PPR) to opposing receivers. It is time to start wondering if Goodwin warrants a roster spot.
Tight End
David Njoku:
Things haven’t clicked yet for Njoku, who was considered a breakout candidate entering the season. While I’m not ready to give up on the athletic tight end, he has a tough matchup this week against Baltimore. The Ravens have allowed the fourth-fewest passing yards per game (193.2) and the eleventh-fewest fantasy points (PPR) to opposing tight ends.
Ben Watson:
Watson saw a season-low three targets last week against the Giants. This week he faces a Washington defense that has allowed the third-fewest passing yards per game (187.3). Washington has also given up the tenth-fewest fantasy points (PPR) to opposing tight ends. With Mark Ingram returning this week, the Saints now have one more mouth to feed on offense.
Defense
Seattle Seahawks:
This is pretty simple. Don’t start any defense that plays the Rams. Los Angeles leads the league in yards per game (468.5) and is second in scoring (35 PPG).
Washington:
This is a different defense we have seen from Washington so far this season. They have allowed the third-fewest yards per game (278) and the second-fewest points (14.7 PPG). Unfortunately, they play in New Orleans this week against a Saints team that has racked up the third-most points (34.2 PPG) and the fourth-most yards (418.2 YPG).
