Run! Duck! Hide!
Bedlam has broken loose in the fantasy football world.
Nico Collins is a massive bust. The Bengals’ offense is terrible, and it’s time to sell Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase. Typical 0-1 panic.
Remember, it was just one week. Take a moment. Breathe. Settle down. Then clear your head and let the rational side of the brain take over. There’s plenty of time to clean up the absolute dumpster fire that week one was.
How do you replace the loss of George Kittle and Xavier Worthy? Who should you sell now after overperforming? Which players had a down week one that you should try to buy at a discount? These are the questions that champions answer.
Through a combination of opportunity-based expected fantasy points (xFP), usage, and market analysis, we hope to guide when and why players should be bought and sold to maximize value while helping with roster construction.
Let’s go!
Week 2 Buy-Low Players
Terry McLaurin
McLaurin didn’t live up to the offseason hype in week one. But, honestly, should we be surprised? Scary Terry missed most of the offseason during contract negotiations and had some rust to shake off. Slow starts are expected!
Managers had hoped for more than just 27 receiving yards on the back of four targets. Still, he barely missed a big fantasy day after he and Jayden Daniels just missed on a house call.
McLaurin was still getting tested downfield frequently, as evidenced by his 19.3 aDot. His 13% target rate per route is puzzling but not alarming.
His week one opportunity was only worth a measly 6.9 xFP. This smells like him just starting slow after missing the offseason. Expect him to return to the 22% he recorded in 2024 sooner rather than later.
Jonathan Taylor
Taylor left early in the second half and played over 50 consecutive snaps before sustaining his neck stinger. His workload is expected to be massive in 2025.
Head coach Shane Steichen confirmed Taylor could have returned, but the game was out of hand, and it would have been nonsensical.
The injury and getting vultured at the goal line twice by Daniel Jones stopped Taylor from having a monster fantasy day. His 7 broken tackles suggest Taylor is back to being a runaway freight train with a nose for the endzone.
With 17.3 xFP (-4.5 fantasy points over expectation), Taylor is a strong bounce-back candidate moving forward. A tough matchup vs. Denver might dampen the bounce-back game, but the red zone touchdowns will eventually return to Taylor.
Omarion Hampton
Some may claim Hampton was handed a heavier workload because Najee Harris was still working his way back into game shape after his mysterious eye injury.
Fantasy Points data shows that the Chargers were second in the NFL in pass rate over expectation in week one. Box score watchers will throw water on Hampton’s performance, pointing to his 3.2 YPC.
If you want an example of how that excuse amounts to a hill of beans, consider this. In the Super Bowl, Saquon Barkley rushed for an average of 2.3 YPC. The Chiefs rush defense is REALLY GOOD.
Still, despite only scoring 8.1 PPR points, his role was worth 11.8 xFP, which still came in as a low-end RB2.
He commanded 86% of the backfield xFP, and head coach Jim Harbaugh raved about Hampton.
“I really thought Omarion was going to be a great player and a great back, and I was hoping that would be right from game 1. Exhibit A, he’s really good,” Harbaugh said in a press conference.
Hampton was drafted in round one to be the lead back, and he has the clear support of the head coach and a schedule with plus matchups in five of their next six games.
Nab Hampton if the manager is wishy-washy and do your happy dance.
Chris Olave
Don’t look now, but Olave saw a sizzling 13 targets in week one. His 12.4 PPR points fell exactly 10 points below expectation (22.4 xFP).
With that much volume, even with a low aDot (6.7) it’s almost inevitable that his production rises.
Kellen Moore loves funneling volume to a lone WR. Since 2019, Kellen Moore’s WR 1 has been targeted an average of 27.5%.
Olave represents a solid WR2/flex play with upside if he starts consistently finding paydirt.
Week 2 Sell-High Players
Zay Flowers
After a 7/143/1 explosion week one, it’s a good time to sell Flowers for a more consistent option at the position in a potential package deal.
The 25% target share in that game marked a career high, and his 28.1 PPR ppg is nearly double his 15.5 xFP usage.
This isn’t a condemnation of Flowers, but the Ravens’ run-heavy game plan and Lamar Jackson’s propensity to spread the ball around limit Flowers’ actual fantasy ceiling.
He is still a great candidate to spike each week, but the projected volume is unsustainable, and he’s likely about to come crashing down to earth.
Yes, in the context of fantasy football, now is a great time to sell high on Baltimore Ravens wide receiver Z
Javonte Williams
Resist the temptation if the opportunity presents itself. It’s highly unlike that Williams will become an overnight fantasy RB1. It’s just not happening.
His fantasy spike came from volume and two goal-line touchdowns. History suggests betting on touchdowns weekly makes a fool of the better, with outliers sprinkled in here and there.
His week 1 xFP (17.1) suggests that happy times on Javonte Island might not be here to stay.
The looming presence of Jaydon Blue, as well as Miles Sanders still having a role, suggests that Williams is due for major regression.
In his game Thursday, Williams scored 1.3 TD over expectation to go along with a +3.3 FPOE
He projects to be a fine hold for now if you don’t think trading him is the right decision. Just monitor the Blue situation closely and follow the high-value opportunities.
De’Von Achane
That Miami Dolphins offense is a DISASTER! Okay, maybe it could get back on track, but no quarterback loses composure in the pocket when the first read is taken away like Tua.
Remember in 2024, Achane was unplayable when Tua wasn’t with the offense and things were less than ideal.
With the vibes bad in Miami and a gauntlet of a schedule remaining, Achane might be worth trying to flip for a Chase Brown or a Jonathan Taylor and a throw-in.
Don’t just panic sell, and if you want to wait a week and see if the ship rights itself, that’s perfectly fine!
