While finding the right 2025 Fantasy Football sleepers and picking the best values gets all the fantasy football glory, it’s just as important to dodge the landmines. Thus, you need to be aware of potential 2025 Fantasy Football Busts.
Last year, the six players featured in my 2024 Fantasy Football Busts were Anthony Richardson, Travis Etienne, Zamir White, Chris Olave, George Pickens, and Sam LaPorta. All 6 of them were overpriced, especially Etienne, Olave, White, and Richardson, and avoiding them was HUGE.
Below, I dive into six players who are overpriced and likely to bust at their fantasy football cost. As you’ll see, I like many of these talents, and even some of their fantasy outlooks… just not at the current price of admission.
Here are my 2025 Fantasy Football Busts and Fades for drafts this season.
For more than 25+ more fades, organized within each Round, check out The Wolf’s 2025 Fantasy Football Guide! Support a small fantasy brand & dive into the fantasy soul of FantasyPros’ 2nd Most Accurate Multiyear Draft Ranker!
2025 Fantasy Bust #1: Patrick Mahomes (ADP = 51, QB6; Wolf Rank = 102 (-51), QB11)
Fantasy Football owners must separate “real-life good” from “fantasy good.” Sure, Pat Mahomes is as clutch as they come, and the Chiefs are forever the AFC Super Bowl Favorite because of him.
Yet, Mahomes has been pedestrian-at-best in fantasy football for two straight years, ranking as the QB12 and QB13 in FPPG. As such, I can’t make any sense of Mahomes’ QB6 ADP outside of “Name Value.”
Yes, he finished within the Top-5 QBs in FPPG for five straight years to begin his career. Yet, this is not the same high-flying Chiefs offense, nor the same weaponry. Defenses are rolling coverage shells to take away the big play, which as turned Mahomes into a checkdown merchant. He’s been under 7 YPA in back-to-back seasons, and Mahomes’ 3,343 yards at or behind the line of scrimmage since 2021 are by far the most in the NFL (Goff is the next closest with 2,428).
Thus, even with the Chiefs throwing at a league-high rate, Mahomes has been lackluster in fantasy.
Over the last two years, Mahomes has exactly 7 games of 21+ points. Yes, 7-of-34 games (20%!) He had one game above 20 points in his first 10 last year, and if you date back to the regular season the year prior, he went 12 straight games without a 20+ FP performance. For context, Bo Nix had 7 games of 21+ points as a rookie:
The advanced metrics aren’t pretty either. Via FantasyPros Data Suite, Mahomes is 29th in high accurate throw rate, 19th in completion performance over expectation, and particularly bad on deep throws, with a bottom-10 completion rate on downfield targets.
We know Rashee Rice is due to miss a chunk of the season, and it will now likely come during the Fantasy Bye Week Dog Days, with his hearing scheduled for 9/30. Maybe Mahomes and Xavier Worthy have improved their deep chemistry. Perhaps Jalen Royals, who I love as a sleeper, can lessen the impact of Rice’s absence.
Still, I’m not going to buy Mahomes at “Chiefs of Old” prices after two straight seasons of underwhelming play and fantasy stats. He’s the most overrated QB in fantasy football, and should be going behind Baker Mayfield, Bo Nix, and even Drake Maye.
With QB as deep as ever in 2025 Fantasy Football, wasting a Top-50 Pick on a mediocre fantasy producer is an awful use of valuable draft capital. Snag a high-upside WR in that range (George Pickens, Travis Hunter) instead.
I am a whopping -51 spots on Patrick Mahomes on my 2025 Fantasy Football Big Board.
2025 Fantasy Bust #2: Breece Hall (ADP = 33; Wolf = 43, -10)
Last year at this time, Breece Hall was a universal Top-6 Pick. Considering he is now falling to Round 3, Hall would appear to be an absolute steal.
He’s an absolute freak athlete, with 4.39 speed at 217 lbs, good for a 9.96 RAS score (98th percentile):
Hall’s just a year removed from finishing as the PPR RB2, and ultimately was fine in 2024 with an RB16 finish. Hall will also be running behind PFF’s No.9 line, which boasts two first round tackles and one of the NFL’s most established interiors – both guards and center Joe Tippmann ranked Top-12 in PFF grade.
So why is Hall possibly a fade?
Early after his hire, HC Aaron Glenn commented that “we have three running backs on this team that we’re going to utilize as much as possible.” Given Glenn’s background with the Lions, a committee would make sense.
Later, Glenn was particularly effusive about mammoth sophomore Braelon Allen, saying, “Braelon is a 240-pound man that’s always falling forward…That’s where he’s going to make his money … it’s going to weigh on defensive players.” This heavily suggests a GL-capping role, akin to David Montgomery.
Thus far in the preseason, Hall has indeed been committee-trapped. He played just 50% of the first-team snaps in Week 1, watching Allen and even Isaiah Davis rotate in. In Week 2, even with Davis out, Hall ceded nearly half the snaps (11 Hall vs 8 Allen) and carries (7 Hall, 7 Allen) with the first team.
Hall played 69% of the snaps in all but 3 games last year; his 72.3% snap share was RB8 on the year. He’s currently at 57% of first-team snaps this preseason.
Allen has taken every third down, and every short yardage opportunity, aka the “Gold Touches,” too. Allen has also been more impressive, averaging 4.5 YPC compared to 3.5 for Breece. Albert Breer hyped up llen, saying “he’s got a shot to have a monster year.”
I know, I know — overreacting to Preseason Usage, Performance, and Puff can be foolish, and even costly. Still, the Jets’ actions have backed up Glenn’s comments. If Hall is indeed mostly trapped in the “between-the-20s role” of a potential three-headed nightmare, he will have a very hard time paying off an early Round 3 price.
This is especially true if the Jets offense is complete butt cheeks. Justin Fields has looked atrocious this preseason, completing 44% of his attempts despite a league-worst 3.9 air-yards per attempt.
If Allen wasn’t enough of a vulture, Fields could also significantly cap Hall’s TD ceiling, too.
Normally, a discounted former first rounder with established game-breaking ability is what we want to target. However, this new RBBC scheme, Allen’s emergence, and Fields’ presence all make Hall a risky bet at his price tag.
As such, I am -10 spots lower on Hall than his ADP in my 2025 Fantasy Football Rankings.
2025 Fantasy Bust #3: Kaleb Johnson (ADP = 71, RB28; Wolf = 87, -11)
Steelers OC Arthur Smith has many faults, but crafting strong run-games is NOT one of them. He has coordinated part of some bruising rushing attacks, as the Titans averaged 153.5 YPG in his first two seasons in Tennessee. More impressively, he took the 2022 Falcons from 31st in rushing up to 3rd. His teams have ranked Top-11 in attempts and yards in five of six seasons (Top-4 in attempts 4-of-6), and top-three in both categories for three of those six years.
With Najee Harris gone, the Steelers ranked third in Available Carries (261) entering 2025, including the third most Inside-5 carries (12). Smith has said it’s always a goal to hit 500+ carries, and we can expect another massive “Ground Pie” here.
This all sounds great… but unfortunately, Smith is also known for spreading this large pie to way too many mouths.
Look no further than Bijan Robinson. He was largely lauded as the best RB prospect since Saquon Barkley. He is the No.1 RB taken in most 2025 Fantasy Drafts.
Under Smith, rookie-year Bijan averaged 12.8 FPPG and finished as the RB17. Bijan’s 52.5% opportunity (RB32). Tyler Allgeier and even Cordarrelle Patterson routinely nibbled Bijan’s cheese.
Thus far this preseason, Kaleb Johnson has been rotating in BEHIND Kenny Gainwell! Johnson played deep into the third quarter in Preseason Week 2, when most teams are rolling out future insurance agents.
Meanwhile, Jaylen Warren has gotten starter’s rest for back-to-back games. Long-time beat Mark Kaboly noted, “There is no doubt that Warren goes into the season as the starter.” Mike Tomlin is on record saying he “certainly feels comfortable with Warren as the No.1 back.”
Since entering the NFL, Warren has been incredibly efficient and explosive, ranking:
- RB6 — yards per rush
RB4 — success rate
RB1 — avoided tackle rate - RB7 — yards per route run
- RB3 — first downs per route run
This includes a down 2024, in which Warren was hampered by injury all year. Prior to that in 2023, Warren’s efficiency metrics were even crazier:
- 1st in missed tackles forced per attempt
- 3rd in yards over expected per carry
- 3rd in explosive run rate (8.1%)
- 2nd in elusive rating
- 2nd in yards per attempt (5.2)
- 5th in YPRR (1.41)
And yet, Warren goes 15-20+ picks AFTER Johnson!
I get Johnson seems intriguing. He was an absolute bell-cow his senior year of college, gaining 1,725 YFS and 23 total touchdowns on 262 touches. This ranked 5th- and 4th-best in the class. By both YFS market share (40.3%) and touchdown market share (57.5%), this was the best season from any Power Conference RB since 2021– insane, since over 50% of his career runs came vs. a stacked box.
His 23 runs of 20+ yards also trailed only Ashton Jeanty. His 66 missed tackles forced were among the top of his class, too – he ranked 2nd in Break Away yards (861) and 4th in yards after contact with an absurd 1,060.
Still, this Johnson hasn’t been showing up in practice or in preseason games. He has been missing wide open holes to bounce runs outside. He’s lacked any burst.
Worst of all, Johnson has really struggled in pass protection. This is where I especially worry, because if Aaron Rodgers gets blown up due to a Kaleb whiff, he will demand Warren, one of the better pass protectors in the league, remain on the field.
Ultimately, I see the appeal if Johnson wins the “Najee Harris” role. By midseason, my fade could look awful.
Still, I worry Warren will prove too reliable and efficient to fully put back in the bottle. I worry even more about Arthur Smith’s track record of capping rookies, even those as talented as Bijan Robinson. I worry about Johnson’s pass-protecting woes, and that he’s playing behind Kenny Gainwell for a playcaller who loves three-headed committees.
Give me Warren 20 picks later, and I’ll scoop an exciting WR around Pick 70 like Calvin Ridley, George Pickens, or Jordan Addison instead — all guys I have 10+ spots higher than Johnson in my 2025 Fantasy Football Rankings.
2025 Fantasy Bust #4: Marvin Harrison (ADP 39; Wolf = 61, -22)
Could a guy many considered “generational” have a massive rebound and make me eat crow? Yes, of course.
Marvin Harrison looks absolutely jacked after putting in some serious work this offseason in hopes of beating press coverage more regularly:
Still, I have my doubts – at least at a more expensive price than Mike Evans.
Trey McBride is the clear No.1 in this offense. McBride paced the entire NFL in targets after Week 12 (yes, even more than Ja’Marr Chase!), while averaging a 33.6% first-read target rate. Comparatively, Harrison averaged just 27.6% first-read looks.
OC Drew Petzing refuses to give Harrison the “lay up” type looks we crave to establish a floor. And maybe Harrison doesn’t even deserve them – he forced only 2 missed tackles all year, ranked 58th in YPRR (1.68), and 70th in YAC (148).
Was it misusage or underperformance? Probably a bit of both. But Petzing is still there. And I also think Kyler Murray sneaky stinks. Harrison ranked 5th in unrealized Air Yards (829) and 92nd in Target Accuracy rating.
Hopefully, Murray and Harrison can forge a better rapport, Harrison can play stronger especially after the catch, and Petzing can use Harrison more favorably. Still, you’re leaning on a lot to happen compared to many of the other WRs going in this range.
I’ve fully faded Harrison and will continue doing so. He is currently going as the WR16 despite finishing as the WR29, and nothing has really changed besides Harrison “getting jacked.” At this price, Harrison is a “wait ’til I see it” type of bet. We’d be thrilled if he put together a season like Mike Evans has for 11 consecutive years. Why not just take Evans instead?
I have Harrison a whopping -21 ADP on my latest 2025 Fantasy Football Big Board.
Fantasy Bust #5: DK Metcalf (ADP = 47 Overall, Wolf = 66, -19)
On the surface, Metcalf looks set-up for fantasy domination. He has almost zero target competition, and Aaron Rodgers has funneled looks to his big-bodied No.1 WRs for years.
However, even if Metcalf pushes 35%+ target share, the actual “Aerial Pie” is likely to be paltry here. Arthur Smith’s offenses have been Bottom-20 in pass attempts in 5-of-6 seasons, with a high of 16th.
Smith’s WR target leaders in six years calling plays: 84 tgts, 106, 94, 117, 110, 103. Pathetic!
Unsurprisingly, Arthur Smith No.1 WRs have consistently underwhelmed in fantasy – despite having elite talent like AJ Brown and Drake London, Smith WR1s have finished outside the Top-30 WRs in 4-of-6 years, never finishing higher than 14th.
London leapt from the WR30 and WR40 in Half PPR FPs all the way to the WR5 as soon as he escaped Smith’s grasp!
Yes, QB play was bad. But if those guys can’t overcome Arthur Smith’s scheme, why should we expect DK Metcalf to do so?
Metcalf has not finished above WR20 in FPPG for four straight seasons, and is fresh off a WR33 finish in an offense that ranked 5th in pass rate and 6th in pass attempts. I do expect Rodgers to bump the pass rate up slightly, and maybe Metcalf gets more lay-up usage and End Zone fades akin to Davante Adams for years.
Still, in a range with league-winning RBs like TreVeyon Henderson and RJ Harvey, I never find myself clicking Metcalf.
Fading a body like this? What is The Wolf thinking?!
2025 Fantasy Bust #6: Sam LaPorta (ADP = 54 Overall, Wolf = 73, -19)
Sam LaPorta was my fade TE last season at his 28th overall price in 2024 Fantasy.
Even though he’s now half the cost (54 ADP), LaPorta is once again on my Fantasy Football Bust list.
Similar to last year, this has NOTHING to do with LaPorta as a player, or even his fantasy outlook. Just like the ADP, LaPorta is the TE4 in my 2025 Fantasy Football Rankings, and I think he’s going to be a strong weekly option.
Yet, even at his cheaper 2025 price, I still think LaPorta is way too expensive. LaPorta is being drafted in a sort of “No Man’s Land,” where you could either go a round earlier and get someone truly elite like George Kittle, or wait 50+ picks and get similar production without any of the opportunity cost.
Yes, LaPorta finished last year hot with 7.5 tgts (TE5) & 15.4 FPPG (TE3) over his last 6 games, which likely accounts for hamstring and ankle injuries that hampered him.
Still, this offense just has so many mouths that I can’t rank LaPorta above the RBs and WRs in this range. Ben Johnson loved dialing up the TE (19.7% Target rate for his TE1), and who knows if John Morton, who’s reportedly emphasizing Jameson Williams and the vertical passing game more often, will do the same.
If I don’t get Bowers, McBride, or Kittle, I would much rather wait until the 110s, where I can get Ben Johnson’s next Sam LaPorta in Chicago, or exciting rookie Tyler Warren.
Summary: 2025 Fantasy Football Busts
As this article hopefully makes clear, we certainly don’t think (most of) these players suck. Rather, a combination of opportunity cost, similar production at cheaper prices, and/or team environment concerns make these six players potential 2025 Fantasy Football Busts.
Given that they all have talent I believe in, there’s certainly a price I’d pay for any of Patrick Mahomes, Breece Hall, Kaleb Johnson, Marvin Harrison, DK Metcalf, and Sam LaPorta. Yet, given their current ADPs and what else is available at their cost, I feel all six players could be fantasy landmines to avoid in 2025.
For Round-by-Round strategy, targets, and fades check out The Wolf’s 2025 Fantasy Football Guide! Support a small fantasy brand & dominate your draft for only $25!
