While finding the right sleepers and picking the best values gets all the fantasy football glory, it’s just as important to dodge the landmines. Thus, you need to be aware of potential 2024 Fantasy Football Busts.
Below, I dive into six players who are overpriced and likely to bust at their cost. As you’ll see, I like many of these talents, and even some of their fantasy outlooks… just not at the current price of admission.
Here are my 2024 Fantasy Football Busts and Fades for drafts this season.
For more than 25+ more fades, organized within each Round, check out The Wolf’s 2024 Fantasy Football Guide! Support a small fantasy brand & dominate your draft for only $10!
2024 Fantasy Bust #1: Anthony Richardson (ADP = 48)
I don’t think any fade scares me quite as much as Colts phenom Anthony Richardson.
His upside and ability to “break fantasy” is obvious. Richardson is the most freakish athlete to ever play the QB position: 6’4”, 244 lbs, 4.43 forty, 40.5 inch vertical?! He has the speed and explosiveness of Lamar Jackson, at the size of Cam Newton, and one of the strongest arms in the entire NFL.
Plus, in the brief glimpses he was available, Richardson already showed he can use these physical gifts to perfection. In ~2.5 games of action, Richardson ran in 4 TDs! He was on pace to top 20 rushing TDs last year. Plus, the accuracy concerns (53.8% completion percentage in college) improved, as Richardson completed 60% of his passes – not stellar, but a definite step forward as a passer and decision-maker.
So why would I possibly be out on this BEAST? The answer largely boils down to injuries and cost.
I know, I know. Predicting injuries is a fool’s errand. Yet, the fact Richardson suffered a concussion, and then season-ending shoulder injury, in only oughly 2.5 games of action has to give you some pause. Both injuries came on designed runs, too.
Yes, I am encouraged that Shane Steichen has said the team won’t hold Richardson’s rushing back. The exciting HC said, “Would you tell Steph Curry to not shoot 3s?” Indeed, it’s this rushing upside that creates true cheat code potential. Yet, it will also expose Richardson to more hits than most QBs. Last year is only a small sample size, and Richardson seems built to withstand some punishment, but you have to at least be mildly concerned with his availability.
With that in mind… what if the team chooses to protect him more, despite Steichen’s comments? Can the Colts really withstand losing ARich, their potential franchise QB, two seasons in a row without getting a full evaluation? I wonder if they tighten the rushing reins a bit should he suffer an injury.
That would be a concern, as Richardson is still VERY raw as a passer. His 56.5 PFF Passing Grade was among the worst in the league, and Richardson’s 2024 Training Camp has been a mixed bag. He’s made some highlight-worthy throws… but he’s also struggled with consistency. Look at the latest nuggets from joint practices with the Bengals:
To me, the injury and passing concerns create enough risk that I am fading Richardson in the Late 4th / Early 5th Round. If I’m taking a QB this early, I’d much rather it be one of the “Big Four” in Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson or Patrick Mahomes — even if that means reaching a round earlier. I also prefer CJ Stroud, who has real 5,000+ yard & 40+ TD upside, at the same price point.
Granted, if Richardson falls to Round 6… I would happily bite. He’s still my QB6 in 2024 Fantasy Football Rankings. The upside is truly league-changing. Still, I’d rather dabble in something safer earlier, or get a similar rushing profile with better passing skills in Jayden Daniels… 4+ rounds later.
Fun fact: Jayden Daniels averaged over 4 more FPs per game on RUSHING ALONE in college compared to Anthony Richardson’s rushing stats!
2024 Fantasy Bust #2: Travis Etienne (ADP 15)
Fading last year’s RB3 is a risky bet, as he would seemingly be a screaming bargain in Round 2 if he produces similarly to last year.
Yet, all the offseason talk has been about preserving ETN and reducing his workload. Despite looking like the worst RB in the league last year, Tank Bigsby is generating strong offseason hype, too:
“I think Tank has a bigger role this year, going into Year 2. It’s something that we’ve been looking at. We definitely know we gotta take a little bit off of Travis [Etienne] and keep him healthy for an entire season… I think Tank’s role can definitely increase, especially in those short yardage situations.”
Losing volume, especially at the goalline, would significantly hurt Etienne’s 2024 fantasy outlook.
In 2023, ETN’s first 8 weeks were unbelievable. He was the RB2 in fantasy, averaging 18.8 FPPG, with Top-12 finishes in 6-of-8 games. He also averaged 80% of snaps, and received nearly every touch in that span.
After the Bye, his production dropped dramatically down to 11.4 Half-PPR FPPG, and just two Top-12 performances (22%) the rest of the way:
This equaled the RB16 over this span.
Sure, his RB8 price seems to balance us out right in the middle, but I worry the second-half is closer to what we can expect for ETN with these promises of reducing his workload. Perhaps that would keep Etienne fresher and more explosive, and increase his efficiency. Nonetheless, you have to be worried.
Moreover, Etienne goes almost a full round ahead of De’Von Achane. My love for Achane is well known, and I would never take Etienne above a player with that much league-winning upside. I similarly prefer Isaiah Pacheco, who’s looking likely to command a three-down role within the explosive Chiefs attack.
Thus, Etienne worries me as a Round 2 pick. Go with Achane, Pacheco, or one of the high-end WRs, who are all higher in my 2024 Fantasy Football Rankings, but often still available well after Etienne’s 15 overall price.
2024 Fantasy Bust #3: Zamir White (ADP 66)
Indeed, fading this ABSOLUTE UNIT of a human feels terrifying:
Yet, being completely yolked does not guarantee fantasy success, I’m afraid. Yes, we’ve got a small sample size (four games) of Zamir White as a starter. It was… fine.
- Week 15: 70% snaps, 20 touches (3 rec), 85 YFS, 1 TD (17.5 FPs, RB12)
- Week 16: 81% snaps, 22 touches, 145 YFS (14.5, RB16)
- Week 17: 58% snaps, 25 touches (5 rec), 106 YFS (15.6, RB16)
- Week 18: 73% snaps, 26 touches (1 rec), 121 YFS, (13.1, RB20)
White proved he could shoulder the load with 20+ touches every week. Considering those four-straight Top-20 finishes as a starter, his RB23 price seems reasonable.
But in a game of “what do you get when you’re right,” I want more juice than a middling-RB2-at-best in Round 6. Wide receivers like Terry McLaurin, Calvin Ridley, and Rashee Rice are going firmly after White — I can see a path to Top-12 Fantasy stats for all of them.
Based on White’s questionable preseason usage, there’s plenty of reason to believe last year’s four-game sample was indeed his ceiling, too. He’s been in a near-even split with Alexander Mattison through two games, as Dwain McFaland emphasized in his Preseason Week 2 Utilization hub:
“Zamir White and Alexander Mattison have played the same number of drives in the first two preseason games. In Week 1, they played drives one through three, and White handled 45% of the snaps and accounted for 55% of the rushing attempts. In Week 2, they played drives one through eight. White played 35% of snaps and lugged the rock 33% of the time. It is hard to know precisely how this backfield will shake out, but we shouldn’t be highly confident that White is the clear-cut No. 1.”
Yes, White does have 4.4 speed, which is frightening at his size. White also is a Antonio Pierce favorite, and this team is going to want to run the rock.
I do worry about the Raiders actually being able to keep games competitive enough to do so. With Gardner Minshew under center, this promises to be a low-scoring, low-volume attack. If game scripts get out of hand, Dylan Laube is likely to take over as the likely third down RB.
Plus, White tore his ACL twice in college. The last time he had more than 175 carries in a single season was… his sophomore year of high school in 2015.
Whether an awful team, a sneaky injury history, an RBBC in a low-scoring attack, or White not playing well and getting leap-frogged on the depth chart, there’s a lot of paths to him failing… and not a ton of ways he truly smashes. He’s an easy fade for me, and has fallen out of my Top-100 on my 2024 Fantasy Football Big Board (nearly 40 picks below ADP & ECR!)
2024 Fantasy Bust #4: Chris Olave (ADP 23)
A lot of analysts who are smarter than me seem to LOVE Chris Olave in 2024. The main argument often hinges on Klint Kubiak bringing a more Shanahan-inspired offense to the Saints.
In this scheme, Olave is expected to be in far more advantageous / “Lay Up” situations, with more short-and-intermediate branches added to his route tree. I do buy this – it honestly can’t get much worse after Carmichael’s ancient offense ranked second lowest in rate of motion and dead last in play action.
And… that’s playing out so far in the preseason: Chris Olave has a 94% route participation rate and a whopping 46% target share on plays with Carr this preseason. On 15 attempts from Carr, Olave has netted: 7 tgts, 4 rec, 36 yards.
Stir in 12-of-17 games being indoors, and there’s definitely a path to upside for Olave.
Yet, even with the usage upgrade, I worry the Saints will be an absolute dumpster fire. The team seems to hate Dennis Allen, who just sucks. I also worry Olave, who’s been just the WR25 and WR22 in Half-PPR FPPG, isn’t quite as elite as many seem to assume.
Since entering the NFL he has exactly 16% Top-12 games (5 of 31), including just three Top-12 games last year, isn’t quite the elite guy everyone seems to believe.
I understand all the “Unrealized Air Yards” (3rd most), and Target Accuracy issue (72nd), but guess what? Derek Carr is still the QB. This line is still abysmal. Olave has already dealt with numerous nagging injuries in camp, and has suffered 3 concussions throughout his college and NFL career. He’s labeled “High Injury Risk” by DraftSharks “Sports Injury Predictor”:
The scheme changes and possible expanded role are definitely intriguing for Olave. I still think the risk outweighs the reward, and comes out too great of an opportunity cost.
At WR straight up, I rank Deebo Samuel, Drake London, Mike Evans, Nico Collins all above Olave in my 2024 Fantasy Football Rankings. I also love De’Von Achane or Isiah Pacheco to lock up some potential “Hero-Worthy RB Upside.”
Round 2 picks are crucial to nail, and I can envision the ceiling outcomes for so many players going after Olave much better than his own.
Fantasy Bust #5: George Pickens (58 Overall)
Fantasy can often be as simple as: draft good players in good offenses.
While I believe Pickens is indeed good, I have a hard time buying that the Steelers will be. Oftentimes, “the fantasy ecosystem” outweighs individual talent, and I sadly believe that will be the case for Pickens this year.
In Preseason Week 2, one of Russell Wilson or Justin Fields (aka their 2 potential starters) played the entire game vs. the Bills. Despite facing mostly third-stringers, this offense mustered up 3 total points and 139 total passing yards.
Talk about a pathetic pie! Both QBs looked absolutely dreadful, and the “revamped line” was porous all night (and lost the starting center, too).
Granted, we don’t want to overreact to a single preseason game. Yet, you’d have a hard time convincing me the Steelers will finish above the Bottom-10 offenses in 2024. Last year, the highest WR fantasy finish on a Bottom-10 scoring team? WR29!
Plus, we have to deal with Arthur Smith! While he coordinates some strong rushing success, Smith has been a major thorn for passing games. Per Michael O’Hara, here are the WR1 finishes under Smith:
Sure, AJ Brown’s single WR12 finish is nice.. but we’ve seen him steadily put up Top-5 WR seasons since being released from Smith’s grasp. Drake London, who most consider a superior prospect to Pickens, couldn’t crack the Top-40 WRs in FPPG under Smith.
I do think Pickens “Alpha Flashes” without Diontae Johnson matter. It was only a four game sample, but when he was the clear No.1, Pickens was on pace for: 140 targets, 72 rec, 1517 yds, 8 TDs. This would equate to 246 FPs, which would’ve ranked as the WR6 last year.
Still, that was not within Smith’s dreadful scheme. In 2023, the Atlanta Falcons featured a pass rate over expectation (PROE) of -9.7 percent. Atlanta ranked 32nd in this metric.
While Pickens faces minimal target competition, I worry that he’ll never find consistency you can rely on in redraft fantasy. He goes nearly 15 picks ahead of McLaurin, and over 30 picks ahead of Xavier Worthy, and I prefer both guys straight up.
Fantasy Bust #6: Sam LaPorta (28 Overall)
Fading the No.1 TE from 2023… as a rookie?! At the hardest position to experience immediate success? Wolf, have you lost your mind?
This has NOTHING to do with LaPorta as a player, or even his fantasy outlook. He’s my No.2 TE in my 2024 Fantasy Football Rankings, and I think he’s going to be a phenomenal play. Just like our Patrick Mahomes fade last season, this is strictly about the cost gap between LaPorta (28 overall) and guys I consider similar options who go in the 48-60 range.
Indeed, I am ALL ABOUT securing an Elite TE in 2024. Getting ahead at the “onesie” spots is one of my favorite strategies, given the “spike -week” potential an Elite TE unlocks..
Still, you can access similar (& arguably higher) upside to LaPorta nearly 2 full rounds later. Trey McBride, Mark Andrews, and Dalton Kincaid go in Rounds 4-6. You can make the case any of those three outscore LaPorta.
In fact, Andrews FPPG (11.3) were just 0.2 fewer than LaPorta (11.3). As a starter, McBride averaged 11.7 FPPG — 0.2 more! Kincaid is about to be Josh Allen‘s go-to-guy.
When you draft LaPorta, you’re passing on Achane, Pacheco, Deebo, Nico, London, or an elite QB like Allen or Hurts. This is far too much opportunity cost for a marginal edge, at best. You’d need to project a massive leap for LaPorta to outweigh that cost.
Could the first rookie TE to finish as THE TE1 do just that? Of course!
Yet, Amon-Ra St. Brown will always be the Target Vacuum here. Jameson Williams is reportedly performing at a much higher level. Jahmyr Gibbs is preparing for a “CMC” style role. There’s a ton of mouths too feed, and plenty of pie to feed them… but enough to feed LaPorta so that he’s 2+ rounds more valuable than other Elite TEs with larger slices of their own offense’s pie? I doubt it!
Summary: 2024 Fantasy Football Busts
As this article hopefully makes clear, we certainly don’t think these players suck. Rather, a combination. opportunity cost, similar production at cheaper prices, and/or fantasy eco-system concerns make these six players potential 2024 Fantasy Football Busts.
Given that they all have talent I believe in, there’s certainly a price I’d pay for any of Anthony Richarson, Travis Etienne, Zamir White, Chris Olave, George Pickens, and Sam LaPorta. Yet, given their current ADPs and what else is available at their cost, I feel all six players could be fantasy landmines to avoid in 2024.
For Round-by-Round strategy, targets, and fades check out The Wolf’s 2024 Fantasy Football Guide! Support a small fantasy brand & dominate your draft for only $10!
