Scott Barrett’s Upside Wins Championships, as well as FantasyPoints’ Anatomy Of A League Winner, are pieces that have been a staple influence of Roto Street rhetoric for awhile when it comes to drafting in redraft leagues, and you’ll find it’s philosophy littered throughout my draft picks here.
PRE-DRAFT PLAN: DID YOU HAVE A DRAFT STRATEGY FOR PICK 1?
As a fan of consistency, present in my train of thought that I introduced as Anchor Strategy several years ago and refined in 2023, my draft strategy can sometimes conflict with the Upside Wins Championships series. Though, to be fair, Barrett gradually shied away from dismissing a player’s volatility since his initial piece on the series in 2020.
Contrarily, my zeal for consistency has gradually waned in favor of raw upside over the past few years. But in this draft, one place where a desire for consistency showed up in my starting wide receiver room. It didn’t drown out upside, but it did turn the volume down a bit, as I selected players whose roles have taken a slight hit (or at least appear that way) compared to last season.
Otherwise, fantasy football drafting strategy remains fairly simple because you’re in control of so little: take what the board gives you, be mindful of what you may be giving up by what you’re leaving on the board, and don’t be afraid to take your guys a little early if they are Your Guys.
For more Round-by-Round strategy, be sure to check out The Wolf’s 2024 Fantasy Guide! For just $10, you can support a small fantasy brand while getting the guide that pushes you over the edge!
The Roto Street Journal staff league has the following format: Half-PPR scoring (Start 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex, 1 K, 1 DEF; 6 Bench Slots; 1 IR slot)
READ MORE: “How to draft” from the… 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 pick
Check out our full 2024 Fantasy Football Draft Breakdown!
2024 RSJ Fantasy Football Draft Results
HOW TO DRAFT FROM PICK 1 IN 2024 FANTASY FOOTBALL
Early Round Draft Strategy for Pick 1
1.01 – Christian McCaffrey, RB, San Francisco 49ers
CMC has given us no sign of slowing down yet, and the talk of San Francisco dialing back his workload? Meh, it was there last year, too, and it resulted in an 81-percent snap count, 339 touches, and 2023 yards from scrimmage.
New rookie Isaac Guerendo may be uber-athletic and be successful in Kyle Shanahan‘s scheme, but McCaffrey got all that work in 2023 because he clearly showed himself to be a tier or three above the rest of the RB room, including the oft-injured Elijah Mitchell.
This pick guarantees I won’t be getting an elite fantasy wide receiver in an NFL whose talent style has made the position a clear top priority over running back in general, a point outlined thoroughly in the aforementioned Anatomy of a League Winner. So, while it will dictate the need for WR at the next turn, having the sturdiest of anchors at RB allows flexibility in rounding out my RB room as the draft unfolds.
2.12 – Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
It seemed like age might be rearing its ugly head for Mike Evans during Tom Brady‘s last season in 2022. Still, instead, even with the switch at quarterback to Baker Mayfield, Evans had another career year, increasing from last season in targets (127 to 136), yards-per-target (8.9 to 9.2), and more than doubling his TDs (6 to 13) on his way to being the half-PPR WR5, on his NFL-record 10th straight season starting his career with over 1000 receiving yards (1255).
Like McCaffrey, Evans brings that ride-or-die energy, where, at this point, I’ll have to see the decline to believe it.
With the move from Dave Canales as play-caller to Liam Coen, a guy coming from the Sean McVay coaching tree, a lot of hype has gone into Chris Godwin returning to the slot and garnering a “Cooper Kupp” role. That hype is understandable, but does that mean taking significant looks away from Evans this year?
Even though his 24.5-percent target share was Evans’ highest since 2016, Godwin still saw 23.8. If Godwin’s share did increase, there’s still room for Mike Evans to eat, be the usual big threat in the red zone, and lock down an eleventh 1000-yard season.
What’s important to remember is that much of Evans’ uptick in 2023 can be attributed to the offensive scheme. Matt Harmon notes in Reception Perception that less work went into scheming him open in 2022. Brady’s fast release time didn’t bode well with Evans’ long routes, particularly the nine route, which dropped from 27.2 percent in 2022 to 16.5 in 2023. Tape and numbers showed the benefit of scheming Evans open on a Bucs team that was close to the NFC Championship game.
Why not believe that Liam Coen can take advantage of the same thing?
3.01 – Nico Collins, WR, Houston Texans
Nico Collins and Tank Dell’s stock undoubtedly took a hit with the arrival of Stefon Diggs, but how much of a hit are they taking?
It’s worth asking what team Diggs would be on without his stark dip in production and efficiency last season. Per PFF, Nico Collins was only behind Tyreek Hill in YPRR last season at 3.1. Diggs started the year similarly, at 3.06 (the WR2 half-PPR) over the first six games. But over the last 11, that dipped all the way to 1.53, the WR33.
The culprit? As my wide receiver analysis bae Matt Harmon points out, Diggs’ long game dropped off pretty hard. His lack of success on long routes was a season-long thing, too, not just later on.
Could this be injury-related and something that just didn’t come out of Bills’ camp? If that’s all the Bills thought it was, would they have traded him?
If the short and intermediate game is becoming Diggs’ emphasis now that he’s on the wrong side of 30, then I don’t see much of a dip for Nico, with an already locked-in chemistry with CJ Stroud practically since Stroud’s first snap. And I don’t see Nico coming off the field in two wide receiver sets. Another WR1 season is absolutely on the table, considering defenses now have three legitimate receivers taking up their attention and an OC in Bobby Slowik, who was shown to be terrific in facilitating the offensive talent for success.
4.12 – Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens
I didn’t plan on game-stacking fantasy championship week when I went into this draft, but here we are: I’ve stacked the Ravens-Texans Week 17 matchup.
I’m generally pretty hesitant to take QB early, even with the strategy’s success last year, but even with the switch from Greg Roman to Todd Monken as Ravens OC, little has changed Lamar’s status as a top fantasy QB.
The lack of impact of the OC switch kind of surprised me. Todd Monken’s aerial barrage during his tenure working with Jameis Winston and the Buccaneers couldn’t be much more opposite of an offensive scheme than Roman’s run, run, run-heavy attack, so it would seem natural to expect Monken to open up the aerial game at least a little bit. But if you pulled up the numbers from last season, you could fool someone into thinking Roman never left.
The Ravens’ run play percentage increased slightly from a year ago, from 51.8 to 52.3. Lamar stayed steady at 9.3 rushes per game while throwing marginally more, with 28.6 pass attempts per game compared to 27.2 a year ago.
So, it would also seem natural to think that if Monken were to make drastic changes, that would have happened in year one, not year two. If anything is signaling change, it’s that Lamar is entering this season notably slimmer than last year, which on the surface seems like a negative since general logic says the less weight you put on, the more you’re susceptible to injury from taking hits. But I’m not worried about at the moment, considering the utter lack of change in play style we saw last year.
With the arrival of Derrick Henry, will Lamar lose TD-upside by losing goal-line carries to the King? Running backs already out-carried Ravens QB’s 45-to-16 inside the 10-yard line in ’23, and 28-to-7 from inside the 5. If Baltimore wants to keep defenses honest, those numbers really can’t lean much more in the running backs’ favor.
With his highest completion percentage last year (67 percent) and no real threat of losing the rushing upside, Lamar is an Elite Onesie candidate as they come once again in 2024.
5.01 – Mark Andrews, TE, Baltimore Ravens
With the new influx at tight end talent of Sam LaPorta, Trey McBride, Brock Bowers, Dalton Kincaid, and a rebirth of Kyle Pitts hype, Andrews is becoming an unsexy name at the position. While several names are new and exciting and have added life to a typically barren landscape for fantasy production, Andrews has remained as elite and steady as they come.
His 12.2 half-PPR ppg during weeks 2-10 (where he was active, and not counting his week 11 injury) would have finished first among tight ends for the 2023 season. Entering the season healthy, even though training camp buzz has put the possibility of Isaiah Likely joining up in two tight end sets more, Likely doesn’t figure to supplant Andrews as TE1.
Mid-Round Draft Strategy for Pick 1
6.12 – Zamir White, RB, Las Vegas Raiders
White is primed to be as much of a volume-based RB2 as anyone in the league. The Raiders’ signed the inefficient Alexander Mattison, who struggled to keep a starting job for the Vikings last year, and drafted sixth-round pick Dylan Laube, who’s got the profile to earn snaps as a receiving back, but really not much else.
Head coach Antonio Pierce looks set to bring an old-school, run-focused approach in his first full season. So while the Raiders aren’t set up to be the most efficient offense (unless one of Aidan O’Connell or Gardner Minshew can suddenly break out for some reason), White is poised to be the center of that run focus, and whatever red zone/goal line opportunities present itself.
Now in a starting role, White will look to take advantage of this opportunity to achieve that prized second contract in the pros.
7.01 – Calvin Ridley, WR, Tennessee Titans
With DeAndre Hopkins also in Tennessee, it’s a real guessing game who might emerge as the bigger producer. Hopkins’ age is going to catch up eventually, but his track record is undoubtedly a mark in his favor.
But track record isn’t the whole context. As (who else but) Matt Harmon’s Reception Perception review points out, Jacksonville’s deployment of Ridley was very static, a nearly always X receiver, without motion, a fundamental opposite usage from his Falcons days. This is for a guy who was only in the 47th percentile for beating press coverage last season.
Now with the Titans, head coach, and former Bengals offensive coordinator, Brian Callahan has made public his vision for Ridley as a “very similar role to what Ja’Marr Chase played.” While never profiling as as much of a talent as Chase, it still means more quick catches behind the line of scrimmage, more motion, more movement around the formation, and ideally less snaps dealing with press coverage.
Miles Sanders’ 4-year contract with the Carolina Panthers has so far shown not to mean a damn thing, but Ridley’s 4-year, $92 million with $51 million guaranteed is still noteworthy, also because he was originally only thought to be interested in New England or back to Jacksonville. Callahan and the Titans appear to have gone after him with substantial intent, and have a strategy to open up opportunities for a guy who was 47th-percentile against press last year. At the same time, the Jaguars saw fit to get someone who was 83rd-percentile against press in college last season.
8.12 – Nick Chubb, RB, Cleveland Browns
I caught a lot of flack for this in our RSJ Redraft League’s Draft Breakdown (maybe I should have taken him a round later), so it appears I have some explaining to do, and I fully understand not everyone will agree with me here.
One of the RSJ crew noted that there were other backs available that could see a case for 150-200 touches this year. I don’t draft with the entire season in mind; I draft more for the second half of the season, and this is a quintessential second-half pick.
Also, it’s no secret that there are outliers in fantasy. Some situations and metrics can tell us how players will typically perform and who those players should be, predictions that never happen 100 percent of the time.
And knowing that outliers to the norm happen, is it wise to never look for them? I don’t expect an Adrian Peterson-level comeback, but I don’t need him to have one. I’m just asking that arguably the best runner in the league with undeniable dedication to the job returns to give himself a shot at the backfield’s lead role again, and that’s not too much to ask.
As the only RSJ staffer residing in Cleveland, I’ve gotten to see Jerome Ford firsthand and see whether or not the questions about lack of vision he’s had since college stuck around in the pros. And they did, he left solid yards on the field that a healthy Nick Chubb wouldn’t have and I’ll take an 85-percent Nick Chubb over a 100-percent Jerome Ford, who as the likely starter to begin the season, will only be less likely to stay 100-percent as the season goes along.
Any “diversified portfolio” truthers out there? Since I live in Cleveland, let’s face it: this is the only Nick Chubb share I’m getting this season, especially if any more squat videos come out. And I want to take at least one shot that he’s an outlier from the norm.
Late-Round Draft Strategy for Pick 1
9.01 – Brian Thomas Jr., WR, Jacksonville Jaguars
While Calvin Ridley went to a scheme that better suited his strengths, the Jaguars front office went out and got a receiver in Brian Thomas Jr., whose strengths fit better with the scheme they wanted Ridley to fit.
While everyone understandably gushes over Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers, and Rome Odunze, Matt Harmon’s WR4 of this rookie class has found his way on my RSJ Dynasty League squad, and now this one. Hunting for rookies with late-season league-winning upside is a staple of the redraft game for fantasy wolves, and Thomas has the opportunity and the ability to produce at all three levels of the field. If he can adjust to the pros sooner rather than later, he’s got the potential to earn a versatile, target-demanding role.
He doesn’t have to be resigned to such a field-stretcher role that Calvin Ridley had to last season now that Gabe Davis is in Duval, and Christian Kirk and Evan Engram are back to fill in the short and intermediate ranges, with Engram even expressing the desire for more deep shots.
A receiving core with expanded individual roles keeps defenses guessing more, and can open up more advantages for an adjusted Jaguars receiver room as they build chemistry throughout the season. Thomas profiles as an X receiver who could end with the most expanded role among Jags pass-catchers, two points that open doors to becoming Jacksonville’s new alpha-WR.
10.12 – Jaylen Wright, RB, Miami Dolphins
The job here at RSJ comes with many perks, including hearing valuable wisdom and data I might otherwise miss. So it was nice to hear the Duck share a little tidbit during our RSJ Dynasty Rookie Draft, that Jaylen Wright‘s first five yards of his combine’s 40-time was actually faster than De’Von Achane, as if I needed another reason to target him in the later rounds.
Achane and Raheem Mostert are undeniable injury risks, let alone the fact that Mostert is now 32 and Father Time has to come for us all at some point, even if Mostert hasn’t had the wear and tear that most backs accumulate after only a couple years. It still kills me that Najee Harris had more NFL touches after his rookie season than Raheem did after seven.
11.01 – Dontayvion Wicks, WR, Green Bay Packers
It’s going to be a real shame when every fantasy analyst out there gets outed as a fake sharp when Wicks never cracks fantasy relevance, but for now, he’s got a lot going for him when it comes to showing signs of becoming a very productive NFL receiver.
Christian Watson has played like a glorified deep threat (when healthy) so far. Jayden Reed only played 56 percent of snaps due to his slot role. While Romeo Doubs has a good connection with Jordan Love, Wicks is the better raw talent.
You wouldn’t know that route-running was a question mark for Wicks out of college since everyone agrees it’s a strength of his game now. His YAC ability in college has transferred so far to the pros, helping him to lead Packers receivers in YPRR in 2023, to go along with a bevy of green flags highlighted by RSJ’s TjSmoov:
Another interesting analytics point stands out is that he did pass the 500 receiving yards mark in his rookie season (39 receptions, 581 yards, on 58 targets), a mark that has been predictive of future success, as the vast majority of receivers who don’t hit that mark never become fantasy relevant.
A Davante Adams comparison is amazingly lofty for a guy who is at the moment still getting practice reps as if he’s the Packers’ WR4, but once he’s out of the cannon, you won’t be able to get him for a value anymore.
But for now, he’s the exact prototype of the high-upside dart throws we want to look for in late-round redraft picks.
12.12 – Isaiah Likely, TE, Baltimore Ravens
I don’t draft having top tight end handcuffs in mind, but much like grabbing Lamar Jackson and Mark Andrews to game stack week 17 with Nico Collins, it can be a tiebreaker to other players/ strategies I’m looking at.
Despite camp buzz, imagining him having standalone fantasy success in redraft as the Ravens’ RB2 is still tough. Who knows, the next time we’ll get two fantasy-relevant tight ends like we did with the Patriots’ Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez.
But if Andrews goes down? Likely has well-established that he can crack fantasy starting lineups, catching 21 passes for 322 yards, and realizing his red zone prowess with five touchdowns over the last six games in which Andrews was out, good for the TE4 in half-PPR.
No FAAB to drain here if Andrews does get hurt, not a bad luxury to have in fantasy.
13.01 – Deshaun Watson, QB, Cleveland Browns
Time has not been friendly to Deshaun Watson’s fantasy value. Having to wait a full season plus another eleven games, some rust was to he expected, but Deshaun’s performance was exactly zero-percent inspiring after returning in week 13, finishing out the year with only completing 58-percent of his passes, and 7-to-5 TD:INT ratio. Woof.
Then, shoulder injury issues kept taking him off the field in 2023, culminating in season-ending shoulder surgery after Week 9 against the Ravens. The numbers saw an uptick, but not by much.
The biggest reason I’m not buying that Deshaun can’t become the Deshaun of old is time, in two ways. First, it’s been three years, and we only have twelve starts to go off of. Maybe he could have gotten up to speed sooner, but it’s still too small of a sample size to count him out completely.
Second, and I don’t know how much this gets talked about, is the scheme he entered when he agreed to get traded to Cleveland. Kevin Stefanski is known for his play-calling style; he likes to focus on the run. One offensive set that he likes to deploy arguably more than anybody in the league is three tight end sets.
During a game last year, the broadcast team pointed out that the Browns were implementing more shotgun, empty-backfield sets, which Deshaun is most comfortable with.
Three tight end sets. Shotgun/empty-backfield. This thing was doomed to take time to adjust to for everybody before things really got clicking. And last time we saw Deshaun, he was making his twelfth start in a Browns uniform, helping lead them to a two-TD comeback on the road, in Baltimore, on a broken shoulder and an in-game ankle injury, and going 14-for-14 for 134 and a score in the second half. Right when it got clicking, his season got shut down.
And so here we are again. Some people may be tired of waiting, and I get that. But as fantasy wolves, we’re called to rise above impatience and frustration so we don’t miss opportunities for fantasy success.
The Browns’ locker room has stayed patient, which is worth noting. Especially with how different Watson’s preferences were from those of the Browns coaching staff. And now they’ve switched out Alex Van Pelt with former Bills OC Ken Dorsey, who looks to bring a more concept-based approach to the offense that gives the QB more room to dictate how exactly plays will run in real-time. Sounds like the guys who are supposed to be a lot smarter than us still trust Watson.
14.12 – Isaac Guerendo, RB, San Francisco 49ers
Sorry Elijah Mitchell fans, I can’t put my confidence in him to be the handcuff to CMC with his inability to stay healthy. It’s actually been interesting to see McCaffrey be the outlier in the sense that for years 49ers running backs got injured as often as Elijah Mitchell to the point where I’d actively try and stay away from the San Francisco backfield on that alone. All those injuries combined with CMC’s own injury his last two years with the Panthers, and I couldn’t help myself:
Guerendo is built stockier than most of the recent 49ers backs, at 6′, 221 lbs, so that should at least help him withstand hits.
15.01 – New York Jets, DEF
I’m more comfortable streaming kickers than defenses. In my experience, more fantasy players are streaming defenses, driving the FAAB cost up a little more, making the cost a little too rich for my blood if I can avoid it. And luckily, when drafting at the turn when the turn is the second and third-to-last rounds, you typically get your choice of a good top defense candidate since usually, drafters wait til the last two rounds to take a defense, if drafting one at all.
There’s typically up to a handful of defenses that you can ride through the season, and even though they might give you a few down weeks, the position is so chaotic that you can expect that to happen when you stream the position as well. So I’ll save my FAAB to try to get those one or three offensive names that, whether through unforeseen role change or injury, can become prime (and pricey (league-winning) candidates.
16.12 – Dustin Hopkins, K, Cleveland Browns
Ah, the fine art of looking for offenses that are great at getting into the red zone, and then falling apart once they get there.
If you enjoyed my illustrious series on streaming kickers last year, nothing lasts forever, so I doubt you’ll be seeing it again. I know, big loss. And though I am comfortable streaming the position, I’m more comfortable taking a guy who was only behind Cowboys kicker Brandon Aubrey in fantasy PPG, on an offense that (as you can tell by Deshaun Watson talk) can still grow from last season.
At some point in the season, I’m sure I’ll start looking at matchups, seeing whose offense has more red zone trips and lower touchdown success rates, and which defenses are great at bending, not breaking. And if I see the need to stream, the FAAB cost is usually as minimal as it gets.
MY TEAM FROM PICK 1 IN 2024 FANTASY FOOTBALL:
IF I COULD GO BACK AND CHANGE ONE THING…
I could easily regret taking Nick Chubb over Javonte Williams, who went 9.08. But to be fair, the news that Williams is showing up looking like “a different player” after answering his head coach Sean Payton‘s call to shed a little weight didn’t come out until after our draft.
The dip in efficiency he had last year after 2022’s multi-ligament knee tear was a dip with a capital DIP, and other Broncos running backs have gotten enough camp hype to take notice: Jaleel McLaughlin, Audric Estime, and even undrafted free agent Blake Watson.
Plus, Sean Payton’s Broncos tenure has been weird. It’s kind of a circus, really, and it’s hard to know what to trust. But if Javonte finds his old form and keeps his old role, the upside is real, even if it’s in a lackluster offense with a new quarterback.
And calling all “diversified portfolio” truthers again! If the Broncos’ backfield gets weird, convoluted, and frustrating, I guess I’ll only have to deal with that in the RSJ Dynasty League, and not our Redraft one.
