It’s been a long and hard-fought battle, but the day is finally here. Arthur Smith has been run out of town and the Desmond Ridder experiment is over in Atlanta. I think the NFL and fantasy football community took a collective sigh of relief. The talents of Bijan Robinson, Drake London, and Kyle Pitts will no longer be wasted… hopefully.
Enter Raheem Morris (head coach), Zac Robinson (offensive coordinator), and Kirk Cousins. This trio is the group that will look to turn around the Falcons’ franchise and bring the most out of an already talented roster. Cousins, who was brought in on a 4-year, 180 million dollar contract, will be responsible for making stars out of the young skill players in Atlanta. The big question remains, can Cousins turn this team around to take advantage of a weak NFC South?
ATLANTA FALCONS 2024 FANTASY OUTLOOK
The arrival of a coveted quarterback free agent is always impactful. This is true from both a fantasy and “real life” perspective. The arrival of Cousins should significantly alter the trajectory of this franchise. He will impact the fantasy outlook for nearly every player on the Falcons’ roster. Let’s first take a look at the outlook for Cousins himself.
It makes the most sense to start by looking at the injury that cut Cousins’ 2023 season short. The former Viking underwent surgery to repair a torn Achilles on November 11th. Just four months later, Cousins is already throwing.
Given his surgery date and his encouraging progress, Cousins is expected to make a full recovery during the offseason. Barring a significant setback, Cousins should be under center Week 1.
Even if he is a slightly worse version of his former self, Cousins is the ideal QB to pair with the young weapons in Atlanta. Cousins has been a reliable and productive QB throughout his career, throwing for 4000+ yards in seven of his nine seasons as a starter.
Expect similar production from Cousins this season. The passing volume will almost certainly be lower than it was in Minnesota. However, the arsenal of weapons at Cousins’ disposal should allow him to have yet another highly productive season. Given the lack of rushing ability, Cousins’ ceiling is capped. But he should still finish the season as a low-end QB1 who will produce spike weeks when throwing for 3+ TDs.
The outlook for Cousins is about the same as it has been for the last five years, middling to low-end QB1. However, the outlooks for his pass catchers are on the rise.
EXPECTATIONS FOR DRAKE LONDON AND KYLE PITTS
With Kirk in town, Drake London and Kyle Pitts are poised to put up career numbers in 2024. It may sound too simple, but these two must be used properly and someone who can deliver accurate passes.
In terms of commanding targets, London is on the verge of establishing himself as one of the league’s best. The USC product garnered a 28.6 percent first-read target share (20th among pass catchers) last season, per Fantasy Points Data. Unfortunately, just 76.9 percent of his targets were catchable, ranking 67th.
The peripheral metrics around Drake London all point to him being a receiver who can contribute at a high level in the NFL. With consistent and competent quarterback play, London should blossom into the alpha we have all hoped for.
Similar to London, all signs point to Kyle Pitts being one of the biggest difference-makers in the league at his position. From his prospect profile to rookie production and more, Pitts should be having success in the NFL. This has not been the case for three NFL seasons. This can be attributed to a mix of things, but many (myself included) consider poor quarterback play and misuse from the Atlanta coaching staff to be the primary issues.
Pitts had to deal with his fair share of uncatchable targets, just like Drake London. He ranked 82nd among pass catchers in catchable target rate. Pitts also had to share the field last year with Jonnu Smith, who inexplicably played a notable role in Arthur Smith’s offense. With Arthur in Pittsburgh, Jonnu in South Beach, and Cousins in Atlanta, things have never been better for Pitts.
EXPECTATIONS FOR BIJAN ROBINSON
The combined additions of Cousins and a new coaching staff are a dream for those interested in Bijan Robinson. Two things held Robinson back from fantasy success last year. First, his timeshare with Tyler Allgeier and a lack of consistent offensive production and scoring opportunities.
With Cousins in town, the Atlanta offense should be humming. We can expect sustained drives and trips to the red zone regularly. These drives will end with plenty of opportunities to find the end zone.
When the Falcons reached the red zone last season, Robinson was not often given the opportunity to score. Robinson was hardly allowed to produce anywhere on the field due to the coaching staff’s love of Allgeier. Bijan handled just 47.5 percent of all running back rushes in Atlanta last season. When inside the five-yard line, this number drops to 20 percent.
Head coach Raheem Morris and offensive coordinator Zac Robinson should realize the talent that the Falcons have in Robinson and deploy him properly. Both Morris and Robinson are coming over from the Rams and have spent years under Sean McVay. We have seen how the McVay style offenses heavily rely on just one running back, most recently with Kyren Williams in 2023. I expect Robinson to see a significant workload increase this season. If he gets the Kyren treatment, the sky is the limit.
Dive into The Wolf’s 2024 Fantasy Rankings and Big Board to see where the pieces land as free agency rolls along.
