Dynasty Trade Targets (2024 Offseason): Buy, Sell, Hold Joe Burrow, Rhamondre Stevenson, Quentin Johnston?

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These dynasty trade targets are pulled from my dynasty trade charts and trade value-based rankings, where I rank players largely by where I believe the median is of where the market has them, followed by adjustments influenced by personal conviction.

In this Buy/Sell piece, it isn’t that I’m arguing that you should buy at market value. Rather, it’s that I believe there’s a chance you can buy for considerably less than market price.

And conversely, that you may be able to sell for considerably more than the market price.

DYNASTY TRADE TARGETS: BUY

Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals

Burrow, as an elite talent, still shows up in Tier 1 of my dynasty rankings (worth three 1sts+). But the injury concerns are starting to mount.

Concerns that the Bengals could push Joe into an early retirement are starting to creep in.

After suffering a calf strain in the preseason, he was the QB31 weeks 1-4. We really only got the Joe we know and love weeks 5-10, when he was the QB4 per game before a season-ending wrist injury in week 11.

Many are likely still betting on the talent, but it’s worth checking if your leaguemate’s confidence falters.

Deshaun Watson, QB, Cleveland Browns

If you’ve gotten this far with Deshaun on your dynasty squad, it might be tough to hear that you must be patient again for next season.

But here’s the thing. Browns coach Kevin Stefanski brought with him a run-centric scheme and one that worked. And because it worked, he could run two- and three-TE sets more than anyone in the league.

Enter Watson, who, as mentioned during one of the Browns’ early games this season, loves to run shotgun, empty backfield sets.

That fact alone means no one should have been surprised that the Watson-Stefanski combo would take time to get.

And unfortunately , once it started to, Watson was lost to the season with a shoulder injury in week in a win over the Ravens.

But it makes what he did on that bum shoulder even more impressive.

Still, the sample size was short.

But the sample size is short enough, that perhaps your leaguemate is overlooking it, and is running out of patience, and could let you get Deshaun for a steal this offseason.

Breece Hall, RB, New York Jets

The buy section of this article contains plenty of two things: buying values that have dropped due to injury and values that have dropped due to an entire offense’s down year.

Breece Hall could technically fall into both, but everyone knew he could get off to a slow start coming back from an ACL tear.

But after Aaron Rodgers was lost for the season after four plays, it may have worn weary on dynasty owners with Breece to watch him play with a bad supporting cast for the entire 17-game season.

And they might put enough blame on Hall to sell to you for a discount. Residing in Tier 1 of my rankings (3 1sts+), I still think the fantasy community will continue focusing on his generational potential.

But two 1sts for an elite talent who’ll still only be 23 in 2024? I would only hesitate to buy if I was in a deep rebuild and wondering if I could flip him more assets in ’24. Otherwise, that’s a deal for a fantasy squad cornerstone and worth inquiring about.

Rhamondre Stevenson, RB, New England Patriots

Somehow, the Patriots offense looked worse with Bill O’Brien calling the plays than with a defensive coordinator doing it.

I don’t really get it, but he saw his lowest rush yards-per-attempt (4.0) and yards-per-target (4.7) of his three-year career as New England’s offense slugged along. He could barely crack RB2 numbers weeks 1-12, before succumbing to a knee injury that took him out for the season.

But the usage was still there, similar to last season, even after bringing Ezekiel Elliott.

With Bill Belichick now gone, the concern of New England entering full rebuild may concern some fantasy players about Rhamondre’s future on this offense.

But it’s hard to imagine things getting worse for the offense than they’ve already been. So, while I’ve got the market valuing him at just under a 1st, a 2nd, and a throw-in could do wonders for your squad in 2024 and possibly beyond if you can buy at that price.

If the Pats’ off-season is good, he could break into RB1 numbers again.

Tyreek Hill, WR, Miami Dolphins

This one is here just in case the one who has Tyreek in your league is still afraid he is going to retire in 2025.

Cheetah, though, is known to say things.

His talent immensely outweighs taking what he says as gospel regarding his trade value. If he could have played every game healthy this season, he may have reached his coveted 2,000-yard season instead of falling 201 yards short. That likely motivates him to try for it again in 2024.

Without the question of early retirement, he’s certainly going to take more than two 1sts to get, but that question may make your league mate give him up for two 1sts or less, and that’s a gamble worth inquiring about.

Tee Higgins, WR, Cincinnati Bengals

Joe Burrow wasn’t the only Bengal whose numbers suffered during an injury-riddled season. Just as his QB was getting over a calf strain, Higgins would deal with rib and hamstring injuries that would slow him down and keep him out of 5 games throughout the year.

The hamstring injury is particularly concerning since it’s been recurring since college. If a historically lingering injury does, in fact, linger, it could seriously dampen an otherwise bright-looking career, whether it be for the Bengals or another team, as Tee approaches free agency.

The thought of Tee leaving Cincinnati and becoming another team’s WR1 is front and center of many dynasty players’ minds, and rightfully so.

Per Draft Sharks:

Here’s how Higgins performed among all WRs in 4 games without Ja’Marr Chase in 2022 between Week 8 and Week 13:
– 11th overall in PPR (75.1)
– 9th in PPR points per game (18.8)
– 16th in target share (26.7%)
– 3rd in air yards share (46.4%)
– 6th in receiving yards per game (92.8)

Tee is polarizing right now. Are you willing to take on the injury risk? That’s because your leaguemate might be selling low due to injury and a down year in ’23 where he failed to reach WR4 numbers by season’s end.

Marquise Brown, WR, Arizona Cardinals

Hollywood is another player whose trade value could drop in your league because of an injury-riddled season from himself and his quarterback.

Everybody knew it would be a while before they saw Kyler Murray’s first game action this past season. Still, it didn’t exactly turn into the target-happy relationship Brown and Murray had in ’22 when DeAndre Hopkins was serving his six-game suspension.

Unfortunately, we didn’t see if the former Oklahoma Sooner teammates would get that connection rekindled by the season’s end. Brown exited the season with a heel injury in week 15, one that had already been slowing him down for weeks.

Another part is that the switch from Kliff Kingsbury to Jonathan Gannon as head coach brought a switch to a more run-heavy system. The irony is not lost on those who remember that Brown requested a trade out of Baltimore because he felt it was too conservative for him.

Whether or not Brown is kicking himself for leaving the Ravens, we may never know (he probably is), but also, tack it on as another reason that you may be able to get him at a discount.

As noted in my January wide receiver dynasty trade chart, Hollywood was as high as the WR6 at a point in Baltimore during his last season in Baltimore’s conservative offense, so he has the ceiling.

And he still has a realistic shot to be the WR1 in Arizona again. His down year also means he’s less likely to Garner a lot of attention in free agency this off-season.

For what it’s worth, he says he wants to remain in Arizona, which might not be worth any salt if he wasn’t already on the same team as his college quarterback.

Even in a run-heavy scheme, Brown, as Arizona’s alpha receiver, can still flirt with WR1 numbers, seeing what he did in Baltimore.

See how shaky your league mate’s confidence in him might be.

Marvin Mims, WR, Denver Broncos

Dynasty League Football’s @Justin_14P lays out how rookie receivers with under 500 yards in their rookie season don’t typically have bright futures and, in most cases, struggle to top 750 yards than in their sophomore seasons.

The WORST Players To Hold In Dynasty! | Dynasty Fantasy Football 2024

But as with most scenarios like this, there are outliers. Alshon Jeffrey, Davante Adams, and Nico Collins were outliers. So they do happen, so why not be on the lookout to try and get ahead of those outliers before it’s too late?

Similar to Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Mims had the tall task of trying to jump two receivers on the depth chart, Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy. JSN was able to break the 500 receiving yard threshold, Mims wasn’t.

But the situation in Denver is unique and a little weird. It was one of the worst-kept secrets in the league during the 2022 offseason that Sutton and Jeudy were on the trade block, but no takers were found. Add to that the unique way the Broncos front office has dealt with Russell Wilson and his contract at the end of the 2023 season, and an all-but-guaranteed chance that Russ is somewhere else next season could kick off a lot of changes as Sean Payton continues transforming this season into his vision.

And as the first player drafted by the Payton-era Broncos, a player they traded up to get last season, Mims is one of the first in line to have an opportunity to benefit from an offensive makeover in Denver. It wouldn’t be wrong to try and buy low from a dynasty manager who isn’t interested in considering outliers.

Darren Waller, TE, New York Giants

Darren Waller’s nagging hamstring was baked into his dynasty value last offseason, so he didn’t fall too far in my rankings, just one tier (Tier 7, one 1st, to Tier 8, one 1st-).

Should the drop be further, considering Daniel Jones‘ big step back this past season? Maybe. But Waller is still a candidate as the primary target for the Giants in 2024.

And although the New York’s weak and injured offensive line can’t all be at fault, or even at a majority at fault, for Jones’ struggles, addressing the O-line will a clear top priority for the Giants’ front office this offseason.

Considering the low-key sound year Daniel Jones had in 2022, a retooled offensive line might actually bring about the next step from 2022 that some thought would happen after Waller’s addition and another year under coach Brian Daboll.

I believe many Waller managers have similar thoughts, which is why he didn’t drop far in my rankings. But there’s definitely enough there where dynasty owners might be done with Waller, and selling for cheap.

Pat Freiermuth, TE, Pittsburgh Steelers

Freiermuth’s 2023 as half-PPR’s TE29 per-game overshadow the promise that he showed in 2022.

But the tight end was stuck in an offense led by a coordinator who, thanks to a perfectly-timed George Pickens touchdown, was caught clearly pondering his life after getting fired for calling an anemic offense.

Before ’23, Pat’s stock was understandably on the rise. Per Dynasty Nerds’ Steve Bradshaw:

This is phenomenal for Freiermuth as he is one of six tight ends since 2010 to average more than nine [PPR] points per game in his rookie season. This list includes Kyle Pitts, Evan Engram, Jordan Reed, Rob Gronkowski, and Aaron Hernandez.

In his sophomore year, he was sixth in targets, receptions, and receiving yards, continuing his ascent into the type of career as the aforementioned names.

Maybe your league mate has a short memory and will trade Freiermuth for a discount when the Steelers have nowhere to go but up.

DYNASTY TRADE TARGETS: SELL

Yes, it’s all Chargers, and it’s purely coincidental. With Brandon Staley‘s coaching legacy in the dust, aging skill position players, and a first-round receiver approaching bust status sooner than later, things are looking very dreary for the powder blue right now.

The arrival of Jim Harbaugh in L.A. arguably makes the following players tastier sells, while the coaching hype is hot.

Austin Ekeler, RB, Los Angeles Chargers

It wasn’t a good time to have a down year for someone like Ekeler, who will be 29 before 2024 starts. He’s an old man now, in running back years.

Pro Football Network’s Kyle Soppe points out where his down year may be more than a fluke:

“In 2023, Ekeler had one game with 70 rushing yards (Week 1). Now, big rushing days have never been the basis of his fantasy value, but a 40% decline in yards per carry before first contact from 2022 suggests to me that the ability to find/hit the holes is fading.”

I don’t know where he could go in free agency, which increases his chances of being a workhorse like he was with the Chargers.

If you have Ekeler, teams in your league may be tempted to buy-in to past legacy. If he doesn’t rekindle fantasy magic, you could feel good selling to someone buying into it. If he does restore fantasy magic, it won’t be for long.

Time to at least put him on the trade block, and see how many believers are out there.

Keenan Allen, WR, Los Angeles Chargers

Father Time has to catch up with everyone at some point, and you might not get a better time to sell right now for a receiver who is 32 years old entering the 2024 season. Like Ekeler, Allen is getting old, regardless of the position he plays.

He was still the WR3 per game in 2023, although much of that had to do with Mike Williams being out for the year early and no one else commanding targets away from Allen, including the next receiver on this list.

And as the case may be with Ekeler, once Father Time hits, it’s basically over; production and fantasy value can drop quickly.

So unless you’re set to confidently contend in ’24, it’s prime time to consider getting ahead of the dip while you can, perhaps selling high to a contender looking to make that final push for a championship.

Quentin Johnston, WR, Los Angeles Chargers

Quentin Johnston and Marvin Mims failed to hit 500 receiving yards in their rookie seasons. So why is Johnston here, while Mims is a buy?

Like Davante Adams, Mims came in behind two established receivers. Johnston however, saw a starting role for himself cemented once Mike WIlliams went down for the season in week 2.

Mims saw 377 receiving yards in 384 snaps. Johnston saw nearly double the snaps (784), but could only muster 431 yards.

And the drops that haunted his prospects coming out of college were on display, front and center, in 2023.

The realization of what many feared would make him a bust means his trade value is very likely only going to go down from here, though perhaps there is a parallel universe where Quentin gets it together so that we can see the tempting pros of his game realized.

Hold on to hope, if you dare.

Author

  • Driven by profit, has the lobes for business. Prioritizes anchors as part of a diversified portfolio. Seeks to be the first hue-mon to become the Grand Nagus. On Twitter @ChaseM_G

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