Despite signing the richest RB contract of the 2023 offseason, Miles Sanders has been a fantasy disaster in 2023. Perhaps mercifully, he will be rested in Week 6 against the Dolphins due to his groin injury.
This opens the door for Chuba Hubbard to receive a featured-back role in a decent matchup against the Dolphins. Will volume alone sustain Hubbard’s value? Can you trust Chuba Hubbard for Week 6 Fantasy Production?
Let’s dive in:
Who is Chuba Hubbard?
Nothing about Hubbard “flashes” as a player or athlete. Via Player Profiler, Hubbard is a middling athlete, as his forty (4.56, 61st percentile), speed score (51st percentile), and burst score (66th percentile) all hover slightly above the NFL median.
On tape, Hubbard does run hard and downhill. He rarely bounces outside or wastes his motion, and can absolutely get what is blocked. Hubbard is also a quality pass-catcher and reliable protector, opening up three-down possibilities.
Still, he hasn’t been asked to shoulder the load much throughout his career. He proved capable of doing so in college though, recording a high-end “Dominator” rating (77th percentile) while accounting for 32.6% of OSU’s yards and TDs.
Moreover, in a tweet, Jacob Gibbs emphasized that Hubbard has been dramatically improving his efficiency over his three seasons. In fact, he’s been borderline elite in his metrics for 2023:
Gibbs also properly notes Hubbard has “averaged 10.2 PPR points and topped out at 18.4” in games he sees 66% or more rush attempts.
Per RotoViz’s Game Splits, in games with at least 10 carries, Hubbard averages 11.91 FPPG. Will this light the world on fire? No. Yet, it’s serviceable.
I also think there’s room for far better production in 2023 based on Hubbard’s early season usage.
Chuba Hubbard’s Usage and Production in 2023 so far
Hubbard has already been surprisingly involved in 2023. Via FantasyLife’s Utilization Hub, in back-to-back weeks, Hubbard has out-carried Miles Sanders while logging equal-to-more snaps and more FPs:
Though he hasn’t posted an overly useful outing yet, Hubbard should have the path to solid volume in Week 6 without Sanders.
Though the Panthers are just 24th in team rushes, they are peppering their RBs in the passing game. They rank 4th in the NFL with 38 RB targets thus far. Hubbard himself is the RB23 in targets and RB19 in routes while playing second-fiddle to Sanders.
In Week 6, Hubbard could very-well finish Top-5 among RBs in routes and targets. Remember, in PPR leagues, targets are worth 2.53x as much as a carry.
Volume alone sets Hubbard up for a very solid floor in Week 6, even if the ceiling is limited.
Should You Start Chuba Hubbard? Week 6 Fantasy Outlook
The Dolphins are 13.5 point favorites against the Panthers, and honestly, this might be underselling how big of a blowout this will be.
Normally, this creates a negative game script for RB production – as the run game will get abandoned early. Yet, in Hubbard’s case, he will likely benefit from a pass-happy approach that will generate more targets and receptions.
Bryce Young has been a check-down machine to begin his NFL Career. His aDot is among the lowest in the NFL. Hubbard ranks 8th in RB catch rate (85.7%) and should be one of Young’s trusted safety valves.
Meanwhile, the Miami defense is nothing special. They’ve faced mediocre RBs all year, and still rank 15th in RB points allowed. The only quality RB they faced — Austin Ekeler — pasted them for nearly 30 FPs.
Granted, Hubbard isn’t even close to this level. But Rhamondre Stevenson (13.5), James Cook (14.2), and even Josh Kelley (15.1) have had quality outings against Miami. This 13-15 FP range feels very attainable for Hubbard.
Plus, there’s a real chance Sanders’ injury continues to linger and Hubbard proves to be the more effective long-term RB. There’s a real chance Hubbard could stamp his ticket to the starting role ROS with a strong performance here.
All-in-all, this makes Hubbard a very startable RB2 in Week 6. On volume alone, especially in the passing game, Hubbard should not struggle to hit 10-12 FPs as a floor. He has averaged .8 FPs per touch over his career and 18-20+ touches feel realistic. Should he fall into the end zone once, Hubbard could hit 18+ FPs.
It’s not flashy or sexy, but if you need a high-floor, mid-ceiling RB2, toss Hubbard into the lineup. I personally have Hubbard at RB21 in my Week 6 Fantasy Football Rankings, and will be playing him over the riskier Saquon Barkley (unless he’s confirmed 100% in ahead of the 1pm games).
Chuba Hubbard Week 6 Fantasy Projection: 20 touches (6 rec), 96 YFS
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