Christian Watson will finally make his 2023 NFL debut after recovering from a mysterious hamstring injury that was not discussed much until he landed on the injury report just days before Week 1.
Watson, who burst onto the scene as a rookie, secured 611 receiving yards on 41 receptions with nine total touchdowns (two rushing) in only 14 games last season. He did this on only 66 targets from known rookie hater Aaron Rodgers. Now, with Rodgers out of town, there’s increased optimism for a monster sophomore season alongside deep ball slinger Jordan Love.
So, Watson fantasy managers, after watching your mid-third-round/early-fourth-round pick rot away on the bench for three weeks, is it time to start the speedster in his season debut against the Lions on Thursday Night Football? And for those who do not own Watson, should you buy low before he breaks a fantasy slate as soon as tonight?
Luckily for both of you, we have those answers.
BUY-LOW BEFORE TNF
All the Packers do is find franchise quarterbacks, and luckily for Watson, it appears they’ve found another in Love. Only Love and Justin Herbert have scored more than 20 fantasy points through three games to begin the season.
Last season, Watson’s average depth of target (aDOT) was 14.1 yards. This season, Love’s aDOT ranks first in the league at 11.0 and third in the league at pass attempts that travel over 20 air yards at 16.8%. These two have the makings of something special together.
It also helps that fellow young receivers Romeo Doubs and Jayden Reed picked up the slack with Watson out of the lineup, boosting his surrounding talent score and limiting the number of eyes on him pre-snap.
Watson is ranked WR26 (-6 vs ECR) on The Wolf’s Rest of Season Big Board — right around Terry McLaurin, Garrett Wilson, Tank Dell, and DJ Moore. Personally, that’s a bit low for my liking, and I would slide him in right between Brandon Aiyuk and Michael Pittman.
SHOULD YOU START WATSON IN WEEK 4?
Would I personally roll the dice and start Watson tonight? If I felt comfortable with my group of starting receivers, then no, I would not. Could he get deep a time or two against an improved Lions’ secondary that has yet to concede over 75 yards (DK Metcalf) to a receiver? Sure. However, they’ve done a good job of taking away the deep ball since last season, limiting the Chiefs, Falcons, and Seahawks receivers to only three total touchdowns.
Through three games, Tyler Lockett was the only Watson comp who sort of got loose against the Lions. He finished with eight receptions for 59 yards and two scores, but he had a long reception of only 12 yards and could not get deep on their secondary.
If you survived the first three weeks without Watson, he can remain on your bench for another week. Hamstrings are tricky and could flare up at any moment — especially for a receiver who will run several vertical routes throughout the game. Tom Pelissero also reported that the Packers will be cautious with Watson’s workload tonight.
However, if you want the TNF excitement and if your team is a significant underdog, he has big-play potential to swing fantasy matchups even in a limited number of snaps. Plus, he did rack up five receptions for 104 yards and a touchdown in Week 18 against the Lions last season.
Check out The Wolf’s Week 4 Fantasy Rankings and join our Week 4 Fantasy Preview Show at 7:00 PM EST to determine whether or not you should start Christian Watson this week.
Either way, congratulations on rostering Watson, and if you don’t have him on your roster, try to find a way to buy-low before the impending blow-up occurs.
