We’re all about making the Wolf Pack money during the 2023 NFL season. Per usual, we’ll hand out weekly bets and player props. This year, we’re diving into NFL Survivor Pools. I am not here to guarantee a perfect 17-0 season, but I am not too shabby at this type of pool.
Over the past few seasons, I have made it very deep into the season on multiple occasions — highlighted by a Week 15 loss (16-game season) with less than 40 contestants remaining in a 1,300-entry survivor pool that would’ve put roughly $40,000 in my pocket.
Every week, I’ll give you my pick and a few other picks that may not check all my boxes but should advance you closer to the promised land.
This is the year.
NFL SURVIVOR POOL STRATEGY
There are many versions of an NFL survivor pool, but I am going by the rules of my survivor pool, where the contestant can only use a team once and never again for the entirety of the season. Of course, rules can be broken as the pool of teams gets more shallow, but here are some of the main rules that I try to go by every week:
- Target home teams
- Avoid divisional matchups
- Target teams that are roughly a touchdown favorite or better
- Try to keep the top teams for after Week 10 (teams that’ll be favored in the majority of the games this season)
- Go against rookie quarterbacks and/or veterans with little upside
It depends on the schedule, but these are the rules I follow when choosing my weekly survivor team.
NFL WEEK 1 SURVIVOR PICK:
ARIZONA CARDINALS VS WASHINGTON COMMANDERS (-7)
The Washington Commanders check all the boxes this week. They’re at home against a Cardinals team that’s starting Josh Dobbs or Clayton Tune at quarterback, and the Cards have the lowest Vegas win total at 4.5 (-142 to the under). The Cardinals must also travel cross-country for a 1:00 PM EST start or 10:00 AM MST.
On top of that, the team is clearly tanking for the No. 1 pick in the draft. Kyler Murray is sidelined; they also surprisingly cut Colt McCoy just two weeks before kick-off and traded for Dobbs.
Is it scary to back Sam Howell in his second career start? Yes. But he looked the part in his NFL debut last season and built off that success in the preseason. He also has Eric Bienemy calling the shots and a plus-supporting cast led by Terry McLaurin (maybe), Jahan Dotson, Antonio Gibson, Brian Robinson Jr., Curtis Samuel, and Logan Thomas. Not to mention a ferocious defensive line led by Chase Young, Jonathan Allen, Daron Payne, and Montez Sweat that’s ready to eat up one of the league’s worst offensive lines.
Overall, we get to cross off a team we would’ve never likely picked again that’ll get us to Week 2.
OTHER GOOD OPTIONS:
I don’t necessarily blame you if you don’t trust Sam Howell and the Commanders. If you don’t, here are other choices that don’t check all the boxes but should still get you to Week 2 — which is the ultimate goal.
HOUSTON TEXANS VS BALTIMORE RAVENS (-10)
Baltimore is the highest favorite on the board this week, and it’s not surprising. They’re facing a rookie quarterback at home, and the Texans’ win total is 6.5 (-142 to the under). However, I want to keep Lamar Jackson’s squad for later in the season when they face the Cardinals or Rams. This won’t be the only time that they’ll be touchdown-plus favs.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS VS MINNESOTA VIKINGS (-6)
This is another home favorite that I feel okay about this week. The Vikings are giving six points to Baker Mayfield and the Tom Brady-less Buccaneers. My confidence is not extremely high with this one because it wouldn’t surprise anyone if the Bucs jumped out to a 10-point lead. Yet, the Vikings do check most of the boxes, and they may not be favored by more than a field goal at home for the rest of the season. It’s risky, but it should work.
TENNESSEE TITANS VS NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-3)
This is a game I really like, but it does not check many boxes. The Saints are only field goal favorites and go against Mike Vrabel’s physical yet one-dimensional team led by Derrick Henry. However, I am high on the Saints, with Derek Carr potentially being the missing piece that the Saints have craved under center. He’s set to unlock Chris Olave, Michael Thomas, & co., and the defense should be one of the toughest in the league. I would bet the Saints at home in this spot, but I’m not 100% sure I want to waste them this early in the season with some juicy matchups on the horizon.
LA RAMS VS SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-5.5)
This would immediately go against my “stay away from divisional opponents” rule. Sean McVay is also 8-5 against Pete Carroll, and it took overtime for the Seahawks to beat the hapless Rams at home last season. Still, the Rams will likely be without Cooper Kupp (hamstring), and their skill positions around Matthew Stafford are underwhelming, to say the least. I would stay away from this matchup, but I can see why others would pick the Seahawks here. Plus, you don’t want to waste a Seahawks team that gets the Panthers and Cardinals at home, along with the tanking Cardinals on the road in Week 18 — who could be starting a high school quarterback by then.
DO NOT WASTE: 49ers (-2.5) vs Steelers; Lions vs Chiefs (-6.5); Bengals (-2.5) vs Browns; Eagles (-3.5) vs Patriots
