After Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs come off the board in 2023 dynasty rookie drafts, running back-needy managers will have a number of capable, yet flawed running backs on the draft board. Each runner brings his own individual skill set to the league, but a handful will likely amount to nothing. Still, the guys at RSJ came together to discuss this intriguing class that drips in upside.
Drafting soon? Check out The Wolf’s 2023 Rookie Rankings.
Who’s the next rookie running back to be selected after Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs?
The Wolf
DEVON ACHANE: Even if Dalvin Cook lands here, I feel Mike McDaniels has a clear vision for the absurdly fast (4.32 forty- 3rd fastest time ever for an RB) & shifty Achane. In just one year as the HC, McDaniels proved to be a master of “scheming to speed” and creating YAC opportunities for Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Achane will give McDaniels a deadly complement to those two WRs, both out of the backfield and potentially in the slot. Already in early OTAs, Achane has been showing out, “gaining chunk plays” as a pass-catcher given the space he finds underneath with those two mammoths on the outside.
Given his tremendous acceleration and vision, Achane’s also a great fit for McDaniel’s 49ers-inspired wide-zone scheme on the ground. Indeed he’s small (188 lbs) – which is no small concern, considering since 2000, there have only been three RBs to weigh less than 190 pounds and finish a season ranking as an RB2 or better.
Still, Achane plays much bigger than his size. Via Scott Barrett at FantasyPoints.com: “Over the last two seasons, he leads the class (by a wide margin) in YPC on runs when first contact was initiated at or before the line of scrimmage (3.36).”
He also averaged 19.6 carries, 3.6 receptions, and 129.8 YFS per game- showing he can shoulder an entire run game himself. That’s unlikely to be his role, but the upside for that exists — and even as just a deadly chess piece, Achane should sustain value for a long time in this offense and system.
JimboSlice
KENDRE MILLER: He’s a beast and should be the guy in New Orleans sooner rather than later. Alvin Kamara could flame out soon either from legal issues or due to age after seemingly losing a step last year. Plus, Jamaal Williams is just a vulture at the goal line and will not impact Miller’s role. Miller could be the man in the Saints backfield for years to come.
Jackson Barrett
ZACH CHARBONNET: The Seahawks rookie is clearly behind Bijan and Gibbs, but he still has excellent contingent upside if Kenneth Walker ever misses time. I would expect Walker to retain the lead role, but there’s also at least some chance Charbonnet could take over the majority of snaps. He is likely a better pass-catcher and short-yardage back than Walker, which are the two most important sources of fantasy points.
The Duck
ZACH CHARBONNET: Don’t worry, he’ll get plenty of work for Seattle in a two-headed system. Charb projects to be the receiving back and goal-line back: the two most valuable roles for fantasy running backs. Near equal draft capital says he will be used nearly as much as KWIII.
ChaseMG
ZACH CHARBONNET: Unfortunate landing spot in Seattle, but we get a solid floor to work with. Based on his college acumen and Pete Carroll’s belief that Charbonnet is a complete ball player, we could see him get healthy goal-line and receiving work in a scheme that does more than just say they want to run the ball more
Erick Kivi
DEVON ACHANE: As the old saying goes “Speed Kills”, and Achane oozes speed. His top speed is allegedly 26 mph and he will enter the league as possibly the single fastest player.
Worried about Dalvin Cook signing with the Dolphins? Don’t be. While Cook still put up decent box score stats, his efficiency metrics were a career-worst in 2022. Achane is a small back, but he’s already added weight since the Dolphins rookie camp. He may never be a bell cow, but those types of running backs hardly exist anymore. Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel seemed to advocate heavily for the Achane pick. And we know McDaniel consistently delivers the rock to his star players. Even with a limited workload, I expect Achane to do major damage.
DLo
ZACH CHARBONNET: Going to Seattle, where existing draft capital doesn’t carry much weight. Remember when they drafted Rashaad Penny in the first round and then gave the job to Chris Carson? While I do think this will be more of an even split between K9 and Charbonnet, there should be plenty of opportunities for both to be viable options. Charbonnet also should factor more into the passing game than Walker.
Tunes
KENDRE MILLER: As noted by a few of the others, Kendre Miller, due to the chance of him getting immediate playing time due to Kamara’s legal situation. Plus, Kamara is 28 and the Saints have a potential out in his contract after this season.
Which Round 2-3 rookie running back are you targeting?
The Wolf
TANK BIGSBY: Assuming Achane, Kendre M, and Charbonnet are gone (or too easy of answers), I’ll go with Tank Bigsby. All offseason, Doug Pederson hasn’t been shy about his desire to lighten ETN’s load. This could be especially true in the Red Zone. In 2022, ETN carried the ball 23 times inside the 10-yard line but converted these carries into just four touchdowns. This was the lowest number of TDs of any RB who received at least 20 carries from inside the 10. ETN’s phenomenal in space & on stretch plays, but he simply dances too much and does not hit the hole when it comes to the up-the-gut, short-yardage plays.
Enter TANK.
The name says it all. Bigsby is a powerful runner who racked up 25 TDs at Auburn, many of the short-yardage variety. He’s also a fluid receiver and strong pass-protector, so he could even nibble away at ETN’s (shockingly low) receiving usage, too. Bigsby was an OTAs standout and has seemingly locked down the RB2 role already — one that could yield significant volume. During Pederson’s time as the Eagles’ head coach, no RB averaged more than 13.7 attempts per game & Pederson’s tenure in Philadelphia also featured two seasons where multiple backs received 10-plus carries per game. Beat writers speculate Bigsby could even “out-touch Etienne in some games depending on who has the hot hand.”
Thus, we’ve got a phenomenal “handcuff with benefits” within an ascending offense that could offer Bigsby immediate TD upside.
JimboSlice
I don’t really like any of them, to be honest. Maybe Chase Brown as a Joe Mixon handcuff, Tank Bigsby for possible goalline work beside Travis Etienne, Zach Evans if Cam Akers falls off a cliff again, or DeWayne McBride now that Dalvin Cook is gone. I would be fine with either of them falling into my lap, but I’m not overly excited about any of them.
Jackson Barrett
TANK BIGSBY: I am targeting Tank Bigsby for similar reasons as Charbonnet, except Bigsby is cheaper. He has excellent contingent upside in case of an Etienne injury. Like Walker, Etienne was one of the least-efficient players at the goal line last year, which could allow Bigsby to step into that role.
The Duck
ZACH EVANS: The former five-star has the most value and Sean McVay is a big one-RB guy when he has that type of player. If Cam Akers gets hurt, Evans could inherit a juicy role.
ChaseMG
ROSCHON JOHNSON: Having plus receiving and pass protection skills can earn snaps. The takes of how well of a runner he is are quite polarizing. The highs: more yards-after-contact-per-attempt in 2022 than Bijan, and the top RB in the country in forced-missed-tackle rate the last two years. The lows: he can’t create for himself at the line of scrimmage.
Having changed from QB to RB just one week before his freshman year at Texas, maybe that creativity can still be developed. If so, he lands in a scheme that prioritizes the run game and has RB2 potential if he can garner the majority of the backfield snaps.
Erick Kivi
KENDRE MILLER: The opportunity may seem small in a backfield shared with Alvin Kamara and Jamaal Williams. But, we must remember the backfield was once crowded for Alvin Kamara with Mark Ingram and Adrian Peterson “in front” of him. Kamara’s efficiency is sliding and he may be suspended by the NFL. Jamaal Williams scored a lot of goal-line touchdowns in 2022 but he is far from an explosive back. I expect Miller to lead the Saints backfield by the end of this year, and be a strong dynasty RB2 entering the 2024 season.
DLo
ERIC GRAY: Maybe it’s the Oklahoma uniform that’s giving me Rhamondre Stevenson vibes, but with Saquon’s current contract situation, there could be a massive opportunity for Gray in the future. Even if Barkley is squared away in the paycheck department, his injury history precedes him.
Tunes
ZACH CHARBONNET: If Miller is available in the second, I would take him. But, I would go with Charbonnet because his running style fits the Seahawks’ system and he’s a great 1B to Walker’s 1A.
Which Round 2-3 rookie running back are you fading?
The Wolf
ROSCHON JOHNSON: I legitimately like Roschon the player — a 225 lb bull who can churn, catch, & block. It’s easy to forgive his lack of touches (never more than 9.5 touches a game), given he was behind the generational Bijan Robinson. He also posted the best Most Tackles Forced per Touch of any Power-5 RB since 2014 — even better than Bijan!
I just worry his immediate and long-term ceiling will always be capped playing with Justin Fields. Mobile QBs notoriously don’t check down as often as their statue counterparts, preferring to scramble for the first downs themselves when in trouble. Fields also monopolized over 50% of the inside-the-five carries last year. So even if RJ beats out the other RBs here — he’s already in an RBBC. And I like Foreman AND Herbert, too. It’s already a 3-headed nightmare (four if you count Fields) on a slower-paced overall team. Even if RJ is the best of the backs here, now and long-term, I think he’ll forever be capped.
JimboSlice
ZACH CHARBONNET: Pretty much all of you couldn’t tell by my previous answer. However, Zach Charbonnet is the big one. I just don’t see how the Seahawks can have a stud in Kenneth Walker and then immediately insert Charbonnet into a legitimate role. I’d prefer all the TEs, WRs, and even Will Levis in Round 2 to this position.
Jackson Barrett
I’m fine drafting pretty much any running back in round three, but Eric Gray wouldn’t be my first choice. He is slow with a 4.67 40-yard dash, and there have been some reports that Matt Breida is the favorite to win the backup job over Gray.
The Duck
CHASE BROWN: As big as Brown is, he struggles after contact and seems afraid to lower the boom on tape. If Mixon goes down, then this will be a split backfield. Low draft capital plus sketchy opportunity, equals a massive fade.
ChaseMG
TYJAE SPEARS: If Derrick Henry falls off the cliff, gets injured, or isn’t a Titan anymore, then let’s talk… in redraft. I’ve heard enough about his knees (or lack thereof) to invest in him in dynasty.
Erick Kivi
I’m not actively fading any of them. However, I am not investing much draft capital in any running back drafted on Day 3 of the NFL Draft. Draft capital often drives opportunity, so any Day 3 pick should be treated as a third-round rookie draft flier. Some have exciting profiles! But don’t overdraft these backs.
DLo
DEVON ACHANE: Lots of vets in the Miami backfield, and the offense will run through the Cheetah and the penguin (so long as Tua’s brain doesn’t turn to oatmeal). I’d rather take a shot on one of the tight ends not named Dalton Kincaid in this range.
Tunes
DEVON ACHANE: I am fading Achane due to his size. Don’t get me wrong, he has tremendous talent but his size will make it extremely difficult to be an early-down back. He has the skill and speed to make splash plays, but his touches will be limited.
Which late-round rookie running back sleeper are you willing to take a flier on?
The Wolf
DEWAYNE MCBRIDE: With Dalvin Cook out of Minnesota, the RB Depth Chart is fairly wide-open behind Alexander Mattison– who’s also been quite inefficient throughout his career, despite some big fantasy totals in his starts. Whether injury or ineffectiveness, there’s a path for McBride to see significant work here as early as Year 1. McBride was the top scorer in PFF’s Elusive Rating (161.3), and his career YPC average of 7.28 ranks 9th-best among all RBs since at least 2000. He’s unproven as a pass-catcher, but McBride has the running talent, weak depth chart, and overall quality offense to make an immediate impact.
JimboSlice
DEUCE VAUGHN: The Cowboys rookie is a potential scat back or pass catcher in a thin running back room led by Tony Pollard. With Ezekiel Elliott no longer in the picture, the Cowboys need someone to spell Pollard from true workhorse duties.
Jackson Barrett
None of the running backs in this area are likely to hit, but Sean Tucker has elite athleticism and solid college production. If he can move past the injury concerns and is actually good, he has a pretty easy path to the Bucs’ backup job behind Rachaad White.
The Duck
CHRIS RODRIGUEZ: No Kentucky bias here. C-Rod is a powerful runner with good vision, excellent contact balance, and more wiggle than his predecessor Benny Snell. He’s also faster. If Brian Robinson Jr. falters or goes down, then Rodriguez will inherit that role and likely not relinquish it.
ChaseMG
DEWAYNE MCBRIDE: Having just traded for him in the RSJ Dynasty League, I have some obligation to say, DeWayne McBride, though I don’t know how many drafts he’s making it to the 4th round after going 3.12 in ours. Regardless, I like him as a runner. The jury is still very much out on his receiving skills, but the opportunity could come sooner rather than later. I don’t believe Alexander Mattison is a long-term answer, Ty Chandler is already 25, and I liken Kene Nwangwu’s career arc closer to that of Cordarelle Patterson
Erick Kivi
ZACH EVANS: Evans was once the No. 1 high school RB recruit before inconsistent college performances dropped his draft stock. Evans shared a backfield with third-rounder Kendre Miller at TCU before transferring to Ole Miss in 2022. There, he shared a backfield with First-Team All-SEC RB Quinshon Judkins. Evans has never carried a full load. However, if Cam Akers misses time for the Rams, Evans may finally get that opportunity.
DLo
SEAN TUCKER: While admittedly being a big Rachaad White guy, he hasn’t exactly proven he can be the lead dog yet. Who knows, Tucker may fight his way for opportunities on a team that might just tank for Caleb.
Tunes
DeWayne McBride: If McBride is available in the fourth, he is my first option. He has great contact balance and there is a real possibility of seeing some action behind Mattison. His fumbling issues in college are alarming and that could glue him to the bench if it oozes into the league.
