Whether you’re aiming for immortality in your home league or grinding away at Underdog Fantasy Best Ball, everyone wants to win in fantasy football. There are plenty of ways to miss out on a fantasy football championship.
The most disappointing way to fall short of glory is by drafting a few early-round busts. I am looking at you, Courtland Sutton truthers of 2022. Sutton was drafted in the range of WR20 (5th Round) and finished the year as the WR43 (PPR). Sutton, Deebo Samuel, and Diontae Johnson were the poster boys of the WR busts in 2022. If you ended up with any of these guys on your team last season, I am truly sorry. Thankfully, the 2023 fantasy season is just around the corner, which means we can recover from last year’s mistakes.
To clarify, it is virtually impossible to be a bust as a late-round draft pick because the investment is so small. Because of this, the focus will be on early and mid-round wide receivers who you should be avoiding in upcoming drafts. Unless you want to end up like last year’s Deebo Samuel owner in your league, avoid these players.
DAVANTE ADAMS, LAS VEGAS RAIDERS (ADP: 14, WR10)
After finishing 2022 as the overall WR3 (PPR), Davante Adams is a fringe first-round selection this season. Considering Adams was an elite receiver in 2022 and is not cracking the first round in most drafts shows that the fantasy community is concerned about Adams in 2023. However, I believe this could easily be the year Adams fully falls off the cliff in terms of fantasy production.
In 2022, Adams heavily relied on catching deep passes and touchdowns to produce in fantasy. Adams led the league with 14 receiving touchdowns, finished second in deep targets, and third in air yards per target (min. 50 targets). All of this is to say that his best friend Derek Carr pushed the ball down the field to Adams and he was incredibly successful at turning these deep targets into large gains and touchdowns. In 2022, Adams had 10 touchdowns on plays of 25 yards or longer. In his previous eight NFL seasons, Adams never had more than three touchdowns that were 25 yards or longer in a single season. These 10 plays accounted for a THIRD of his fantasy last season, or 33 percent of his points from just ten plays, which is truly absurd.
First, this level of success from explosive plays is simply not reproducible. If Adams once again goes for 10 TDs on long plays, I will eat my words but I just don’t see this happening again. Second, Adams will likely have Jimmy Garoppolo as his quarterback for the majority of the season. What does Jimmy G not do? Push the ball deep. Garoppolo consistently ranks at the bottom of the barrel in terms of air yards per attempt. In three seasons as the consistent starter for the 49ers, Garoppolo never ranked higher than 24th for this metric.
Adams is undeniably one of the most talented receivers of this generation. However, there was a level of flukiness to his fantasy production last season. Adams simply will not be able to recreate the big play touchdowns from last year. On top of this, his new QB has made a living getting the ball out quickly and throwing the ball short. For these reasons, I am passing on Adams this year and believe he will see some serious regression.
CHRISTIAN WATSON, GREEN BAY PACKERS (ADP: 40, WR21)
Christian Watson… the fantasy community’s sweetheart. Watson has been pegged by just about everyone to be a second-year breakout at wide receiver. I’m sorry to rain on the parade but I think he’s more likely to disappoint than break out.
After struggling early in the year and dealing with injuries, Watson proved to be a valuable fantasy asset down the stretch. From Week 10 on, Watson was the WR9. Yet, this came on the back of high touchdown numbers. During this time frame, Watson caught seven touchdowns and tacked on one more on the ground. Watson only caught more than five passes once during this time frame and never had more than eight targets. Like Adams, Watson’s production relied heavily on explosive plays and touchdowns which is concerning for a player going early in the fourth round.
As with every receiver, Watson’s production will heavily rely on the play of his QB. Although Jordan Love is not a rookie, he is certainly unproven and this hurts Watson’s overall ceiling. As of now, I believe it is too early to have a true take on Love. Aaron Rodgers’ heir apparent has appeared in just 10 games and attempted 83 passes across his two years in the league. On top of that, one concerning piece of data is that PFF has graded just 40 percent of Love’s passes as accurate. While the sample size is incredibly small, this is problematic for a pass catcher who relies on deep targets.
DJ MOORE, CHICAGO BEARS (ADP: 48, WR27)
I previously wrote about DJ Moore’s 2023 outlook, so for a more in-depth argument, look there. Regardless, all the main points will be discussed here. Moore’s failure to return on his cost comes down to two simple reasons, volume and offensive environment.
In 2022, the Bears threw the ball at the lowest rate in the NFL. In the 15 games Justin Fields played in last season, he threw the ball 21.2 times per game, a 17-game pace of 360 attempts. If Fields sees a 15 percent increase in his pass attempts, (I think the increase will be even smaller in reality) he would throw the ball 415 times in 2023.
Across the last four seasons, Moore has maintained around a 25 percent target share. If he maintains this target share into 2023, 415 pass attempts project to 104 targets for Moore. It is incredibly difficult to find success in fantasy as a WR when finishing with this number of targets. In 2022, just two players finished with fewer than 110 targets and finished as a WR2 or better: Cooper Kupp (only played 8 full games) and Jerry Jeudy who had seven touchdowns last year. Considering Fields only threw for 17 TDs last year and Moore has never finished with more than 7 TDs in a single season, I don’t think high touchdown numbers will save Moore.
On top of low pass volume, the Chicago offense was all-around poor in 2022. Finishing bottom 10 in both yards and points per game, the Bears were simply not productive on offense last year. A key component of Chicago’s offensive struggles was poor offensive line play. The offensive line allowed a sack on 15 percent of dropbacks, the highest rate in the league. Believe it or not, it is hard to deliver the ball to receivers when sacks occur on nearly one of every five plays. Chicago made some additions to the offensive line this offseason, but PFF still ranks them as the 21st offensive line coming into 2023.
KADARIUS TONEY, KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (ADP: 73, WR39)
Another one of the fantasy community’s favorite break-out targets, signs are pointing to Kadarius Toney disappointing in 2023. Don’t get me wrong, I love Toney as a talent. With the way he moves, I could be convinced that the man doesn’t have ACLs. However, being quick and shifty doesn’t translate to production in fantasy football.
Many of those who believe Toney project him to be the guaranteed second weapon in Kansas City. When talking about wide receiver sleepers, I mentioned that Toney is not a shoo-in to be the Chiefs’ second option behind Kelce. Between joining the Chiefs in Week 9 and the end of the season (Super Bowl), Toney put up less than encouraging numbers.
During this time frame, Toney saw 29 targets on 73 routes and reached a 30 percent snap share just twice. Toney never ran more than 15 routes in a game and only had more than three targets twice. This is set to change in 2023 with JuJu Smith-Schuster out of the picture. Although Toney will get more looks next season he has never done anything in his career that indicates that he is reliable number two for an offense. As of now, Toney has spent his time in the NFL as a gadget player and on injured reserve.
I think it is entirely possible that Skyy Moore and/or Jerick McKinnon finish with better receiving numbers than Toney next season. Drafters are selecting those two players over four rounds after Toney and I think they are much better investments. Outside of other Chiefs players, there are other receivers going in the same range as Toney that I would rather have. Jahan Dotson, Quentin Johnston, and Jordan Addison are all going right around Toney and I believe that arguably all three of them are better options than the gadget player that is Kadarius Toney. Not to mention, he’s been in his feelings all offseason.
CLOSING COMMENTS
Risks need to be taken to win fantasy football leagues. With that being said, these risks need to be calculated and thought out. While it’s highly unlikely that all of these players are busts, I believe drafting these players are bad risks. Drafting these players at their current prices is a way to end up with a roster full of busts and no chance at fantasy immortality.
Don’t be like the Courtland Sutton truthers of 2022. Look past the smokescreens and see these four receivers for what they are: headaches and disappointments. Save yourself the frustration and look elsewhere in your drafts this season.
