DJ Moore 2023 Fantasy Outlook: The Grass May Not Be Greener With the Bears

A move to Chicago might cause trouble for DJ Moore owners in 2023.

DJ Moore proves to be one of the most interesting wide receiver prospects entering the 2023 season. Moore has been productive and fantasy relevant every year since entering the league in 2018.

This past season was Moore’s worst season — from a statistical standpoint — since his rookie year. This was the first time Moore did not eclipse 1,100 yards since his sophomore campaign. Despite dips in yardage and receptions, DJ was still able to finish the year as a WR2 in PPR formats (WR24). Frankly, it’s shocking that Moore was able to finish this highly last year. Moore had to deal with Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, and PJ Walker at QB last year. I would simply call Panthers QB play poor outside of this piss missile from Walker to Moore:

2023 introduces one wrinkle into Moore’s fantasy outlook. Before the 2023 NFL Draft, Moore was sent to the Chicago Bears. In my opinion, this dramatically impacts Moore, especially from a fantasy perspective.


Excluding his rookie year, Moore has maintained a target share that has fluctuated between 24-29 percent. In 2022, Moore held a 27.7 percent target share, the 12th-highest in the NFL. What is concerning to me is that even if he maintains this level of target share in Chicago, his target volume will still be incredibly low.

Last season, Justin Fields threw the ball just 318 times. This was the least number of attempts from any consistent starter last year. Let’s say that the Bears have some more confidence in Fields this season and he throws 375 passes. If Moore maintains this 27.7 percent target share, and there is no guarantee he will, this projects to a frightening 104 targets. Plus, he’ll have to fight off a decent supporting cast, highlighted by Chase Claypool, Darnell Mooney, Cole Kmet, and Robert Tonyan atop the Bears’ target totem pole.

These are the names and finishes (PPR) of receivers who finished 2022 with 100-110 targets: Jerry Jeudy (WR22), Adam Theilen (WR30), Allen Lazard (WR35), JuJu Smith-Schuster (WR27), Josh Palmer (WR37), Courtland Sutton (WR43), and Tee Higgins (WR18).

There are just two WR2 finishes in this group, coming from Higgins and Jeudy. However, both of their finishes were bolstered by high touchdown numbers. Jeudy finished the year with six and Higgins had seven touchdowns. Meanwhile, Moore has never had more than seven touchdowns in a season. I certainly don’t see him meeting this mark in 2023 considering Fields threw for just 17 touchdowns last season.

At RSJ, we have continually harped on the importance of volume and opportunity and how it leads to success. Unfortunately for Moore, it looks like he could be seeing the lowest volume of his career and that does not bode well for fantasy production.


I have referenced the quality of play from Justin Fields and the production of the Bears’ offense as a whole. Fields is certainly capable of producing some electric plays:

Unfortunately for Moore and other Bears pass catchers, the majority of Fields’ explosive plays occurred with his legs and not his arm.

There are some advanced metrics that I can only describe as concerning if you are considering drafting a Bears pass catcher. Per Player Profiler, Fields ranks 25th in accuracy rating, 32nd in true completion percentage, and 22nd in deep-ball completion percentage. Fields is still young and he can certainly make improvements. However, these numbers should make you think twice before taking DJ in the early fifth round of drafts.

Outside of some questionable accuracy metrics from Fields, the Bears’ offense as a whole will likely limit Moore’s fantasy production. In 2022, the Bears’ offense was subpar at best. Just to rattle off a few stats, they were 21st in yards per play, 30th in passing first downs, 23rd in scoring offense, and 28th in offensive yardage. The Bears could certainly improve, but this offense doesn’t project to be a significant force in 2023.

A lacking component of the Bears’ offense is the offensive line. Fields by far and away led the league in sack percentage. Fields was sacked 55 times in 2022 on a whopping 14.7 percent of dropbacks. Additionally, Fields was pressured on 26.9 percent of pass attempts, the third-highest rate in the NFL last year. It’s pretty simple why this is an issue. If Fields is constantly being pressured and sacked, it is incredibly difficult to deliver accurate passes, if he can even get the pass off at all.

The Bears selected NFL-ready right tackle Darnell Wright with the 10th overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. The Tennessee product will hopefully alleviate some of the Bears’ offensive line struggles. The team also added the steady Nate Davis at guard from the Titans in free agency. However, I believe Fields will continue to be under siege throughout the 2023 season, negatively impacting fantasy production for his pass catchers.


DJ Moore is a phenomenal talent and I believe he has the skill set to be a true WR1 in the NFL. Unfortunately for Moore, he has found himself in an offense that rarely throws the ball and an offensive line that doesn’t give his QB time to deliver accurate passes.

Because of his likely low volume in the Bears’ offense, I find it unlikely that he will have a positive return on investment (ADP 50, WR21). The Wolf’s 2023 Rankings are exactly in line with Moore’s ADP and I believe this is simply too high. I believe Moore’s ceiling is a high-end WR2. The price that you currently have to pay for Moore is too close to his ceiling for me to be interested.

I have written about the value of taking a player near their floor. Taking players near their ceiling is something I am not interested in during the middle rounds of drafts. For this reason, I will be passing on Moore at his current price and I encourage you to do the same.


  • Michael "MOH" O'Hara - it's pronounced Moe. -- Full-time Fantasy Football guy, part-time Ohio State Student. -- Ja'Marr Chase can do no wrong.


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