In today’s era of fantasy football, nearly every league is playing half or full PPR. For newer fantasy players, this means that players receive either a half or full fantasy point per reception. This change to the scoring system may not seem much. However, there are certain players that see tremendous jumps in value in PPR formats vs. standard scoring.
The differences in value are especially significant for running backs. There is such a dramatic difference in receptions among running backs. These differences can be leveraged to find running backs who significantly outperform their ADP.
In 2022, this came in the form of a player like Jerick McKinnon, who could be found on the waiver wire but finished the year as the RB20. McKinnon finished the season with just 72 carries but his role in Kansas City’s passing offense (56 receptions for 512 yards) propelled him to an RB2 finish (RB20 in PPR scoring).
Players selected in the first few rounds tend to have an established workhorse or three-down role. Players selected in the middle rounds of drafts can have a more unclear outlook and can return significant value if they can be effective (or have high volume) through the air.
For this reason, the focus here will be on middle-round running backs who can exceed expectations in PPR leagues.
AARON JONES (ADP: 53)
Aaron Jones is currently being selected in the middle of the fifth round as the RB16. Over the last several seasons, Jones has been a fantasy mainstay. Jones has finished as an RB1 in each of the last four seasons on the back of high receiving volume. In 2022, Jones ranked sixth in receptions, ninth in target share, and 12th in yards per route run among running backs. This receiving work lifted him to an RB9 finish despite splitting touches with AJ Dillon.
Jones’ ADP is currently being pushed down due to the unveiling of Jordan Love as the starting quarterback. Thus, there are questions about how Jones will be used in the passing game and how the offense will perform as a whole.
Jones and Love have played eight games together, so far. In these games, Jones’ usage in the receiving game and fantasy production did not take a hit. Across these eight games, Jones averaged 14.6 PPR points per game. Jones averaged 14.6 points per game in 2022 where he finished as the RB9. With Love playing, Jones has averaged three receptions per game. This would come out to 51 receptions across 17 games, whereas Jones finished 2022 with 59 receptions.
Although the sample size is small, Love has shown that he will rely on Jones in the passing game. I believe that Love will lean on Jones as a safety blanket throughout the 2023 season. Aaron Jones has been Mr. Consistency throughout the last four seasons. With a deflated price and no signs of reduction in passing game work, I am very interested in drafting Jones this season.
RACHAAD WHITE (ADP: 83)
The Tampa Bay offense, yikes, I know. However, I believe Rachaad White will carve out a significant role and return value in the 2023 season. White is currently being selected at 83rd overall as the RB24.
The former Sun Devil was heavily utilized in the passing game last season. As a rookie, he ranked top 20 in both receiving yards and receptions, catching 50 balls for 290 yards. Like most rookies, White didn’t get things going until late in the year. However, once he proved that he was a reliable receiver, he was heavily utilized.
This season, the Tampa Bay offense will look significantly different. For White’s outlook, the two key departures are future Hall of Fame quarterback Tom Brady and fellow running back Leonard Fournette. This means that White will be seeing less reliable QB play with Baker Mayfield (likely) at the helm. Yet, with the departure of Fournette, White has the opportunity to take on a larger role in the passing game. Fournette had the fourth-most targets at his position last season with 83.
With an ADP at the very end of the 6th round, I think White is worth a look considering he could easily catch close to 60 passes and could develop a meaningful role on the ground, as well.
ANTONIO GIBSON (ADP: 98)
As of now, nobody has a clue what to do with the Washington backfield. Antonio Gibson is currently an eighth-round pick (RB31) and his teammate, Brian Robinson Jr., is going just over a round later (ADP: 113, RB36).
Whether you like it or not, Gibson has been a (fairly) reliable option in PPR for the last three seasons. Gibson has finished as the RB28, RB10, and RB13 during his first three seasons in the league. Although his 2022 finish was not ideal, Gibson was still the primary pass catcher out of the backfield for the Commanders. Gibson finished 13th in both receiving yards and receptions for RBs, as well as finishing ninth in yards per route run. Robinson Jr. has shown minimal effectiveness in the passing game and I don’t expect this to change.
However, Robinson’s role in the ground game could certainly take a hit in 2023. Washington has brought in former Kansas City offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy to run the offense. Bienienemy has already expressed excitement about using Gibson. Bieniemy has no allegiance to either running back. Considering the positive reports surrounding Gibson, it is entirely possible that he develops a larger role on the ground game in addition to his solidified role in the passing game.
On top of a potentially larger role in the offense as a whole, Gibson may catch more passes than ever before. Bieniemy has shared that he wants to focus on running back screens as an addition to the offense. If this translates to the regular season, the former collegiate wideout could easily finish the year with over 50 catches.
JAMES CONNER (ADP: 86)
I’m sure some of you just read the name James Conner and thought, “he doesn’t catch the football.” However, Conner ranked top-15 in receptions, target share, and routes run. On top of this, he ranked 17th in total receiving yards among running backs.
Conner also offers a fairly cheap price at the moment. Currently being drafted as the RB28, Conner can be snagged in the seventh round. This price for Conner is currently being driven by the questions surrounding the Arizona offense. DeAndre Hopkins is no longer in the picture, and quarterback Kyler Murray may not play a single game this season. While playing in a poor offense is not ideal for fantasy production, I am willing to look past this given Conner’s current price.
Given that Conner is one of the few established weapons (no, 32-year-old Zach Ertz does not count) in the Arizona offense, I expect him to be heavily relied on throughout the year, especially with the Cardinals expected to trail in mostly every game.
With Murray sidelined, Colt McCoy will likely start a good chunk of games for the Cardinals in 2023. In his four starts for the Cardinals last season, McCoy relied on Conner for check downs. In these games, Conner averaged 3.5 receptions per game, a 17-game pace of 60 catches. This reliance on Conner can easily translate into Conner being a tremendous value for fantasy managers in 2023.
OTHER PASS-CATCHERS TO CONSIDER: James Cook (BUF, APD: 93); Samaje Perine (DEN, ADP: 103); De’Veon Achane (MIA, ADP: 121); Jaylen Warren (PIT, ADP: 135); Tyjae Spears (TEN, ADP: 177); Pierre Strong Jr. (NE, ADP: 195)
CLOSING COMMENTS
Receiving work is not the only way that players should be evaluated in PPR leagues. Regardless, when trying to find value in mid-round running backs, those who regularly catch the ball are great mid-to-late-round targets. At the end of the day, simply catching a pass is worth as much as a 10-yard rush. This is how McKinnon was able to finish as an RB2 despite rushing for fewer than 300 yards.
If you begin your draft with several wide receivers, consider these pass-catching running backs. If you can find a mid-round back that can end up catching in the range of 50 balls, you will likely end up finding an RB with a tremendous return on investment. When trying to defeat the running back dead zone, consider these players.
