The ManDog takes you through his favorite NFL Week 7 bets against the spread, along with a 6-point teaser.
Current Record: ATS: 11-12-1; Teasers: 2-4
Last week, the Cowboys spread covering streak came to an end for the ManDog. It was a good run, and Dallas nearly covered through the backdoor but missed a field goal to put the game within 6 points. The Vikings and Bills both took care of business as road favorites, while the Jaguars failed to cover as they lost to the Colts. We voyage into Week 7 following a .500 week hoping to break through to a winning record!
Steelers at Dolphins (-7)
- The Fins get Tua back after his disturbing concussion a few weeks ago. They limped along with third-string QB Skylar Thompson while Tua and Teddy Bridgewater were in concussion protocol.
- Tua’s impact on this team can’t be understated: Before his injury, Miami was first in points per drive (2.81), first in EPA/drive (1.14), first in touchdowns/drive (37%), and second-lowest three-and-out rate (18.5%).
- Steelers managed an improbable win against Brady and the Bucs last week, but now it’s time for them to come back to earth. The Pittsburgh defense is sixth-worst in yards per pass and faces a Dolphins offense tied for first in yards per pass.
- Barring any surprises and injuries, the Dolphins should savor the moment with their star QB returning to action in the national spotlight. I’ll take the Dolphins to cover at home.
Jets (+1) at Broncos
- Sometimes there’s no reason to overcomplicate things. The Broncos have been absolutely pathetic on the offensive side of the ball, and they face a stubborn Jets defense.
- New York put the league on notice, with blowout wins against the Dolphins and Packers, and looks to continue its hot streak.
- The Broncos’ above-average defense should be able to temper the Jets’ offense, but New York will still score points. Denver’s pass defense is tied for the best in yards per attempt, but the Jets don’t win games by passing. Wilson went 10-18 for 110 passing yards, and the Jets still posted 27 points in Green Bay.
- What’s sure to be a low-scoring affair, I’m leaning on the noticeably better team to win this game. Give me the Jets!
Jaguars at Giants (+3.5)
- The world continues to sleep on the New York Football Giants. Perhaps there’s a reason: The Giants haven’t been particularly effective on offense, and lean heavily on their defense to keep games close. NY has managed to scrap out wins in tight ball games, consistently winning the turnover battle.
- The Jaguars have struggled as of late, dropping their last two games to the Texans and Colts.
- The Jaguars and Giants rank 10th and eighth respectively in rush yards per attempt, so this game is going to be a battle of the trenches. Jacksonville’s defense has been especially effective in stopping the run, ranking third in rush yards per attempt, and are average against the pass. They are weak at getting to the QB with the sixth-lowest sack total.
- Daniel Jones should have enough time against a bad pass rush to move the ball. Saquon Barkley should get his opportunities for big plays, and the Giants’ elite 3rd down defense should slow down the Jaguars enough to keep the game close. I’ll take the 4-1 Giants to at least keep this game within a field goal against a Jaguars team that has yet to prove its worth.
Bears at Patriots (-8)
- Belichick feasts on young and/or one-dimensional quarterbacks and this week, he gets both. Justin Fields has had to run for his life, seeing the highest pressure rate among QBs (13.4%). The Bears have the 32nd-ranked offensive line and wide receivers, and 29.5% of Fields’ pass attempts have been uncatchable and inaccurate.
- This sets up nicely for New England, who has won the games they’re supposed to this year. All three wins came up against below .500 opponents, and they face a Bears team standing at 2-4.
- Belichick should find a way to slow down the Bears’ run game and ultimately stunt the Bears from keeping up with the Patriots. I expect the Pats to do the job against Chicago.
6-point Teaser: Dolphins (-1) & Falcons (+12.5)
